by mattduke » Sun 03 Apr 2011, 09:46:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'I')f energy prices are on a sideways climb upwards, than an increase in cost will better prepare us for this permanent mountain. However prices have been going up forever. a can of cola use to be five cents. i just wish there was a complete, official answer. So many voices are arguing different things. Lets just have one collective truth and handle it like adults.
If I understand what you want by "one collective truth" -- i.e. about our economic future re the economy and inflation -- I certainly understand WHY you want it (we all do) -- but that's the ONE area I can guarantee you that we will NOT get that.
We actually know so little about economics that it is more of a religion (belief system) than a science. The main reasons seem to be:
1). It is based on groups of people. People are irrational -- it's not like you can come up with reliable formulas to predict their behavior.
2). You can't do meaningful experiments for it in the real world (many variables over time). Experiments with verifiable results are at the HEART of science. You can't stick people in an "economy jar" and watch them for years. In the real world there are thousands of variables, and many evolve constantly (including the global economy itself).
So what you have, with all the economic punditry and also the sincere laymen and even economists -- is largely guesses based on how they think and how they were trained and how they POLITICALLY believe in the world.
If you doubt this, consider a couple of things:
1). The left believes in and touts economic policies like big government macroeconomic policy (high taxes, big government social programs, government "investment" etc.) which "just happen" to align with the political leanings of the left. Economic stimulous -- never enough, for example.
2). The right is just the opposite. They "just happen" to believe in low taxes (which they tout endlessly, regardless of what else is happening), free markets, small government, few government programs -- which align with right wing policies.
It's emotion driven, not intellectually driven. Like any emotional political issue.
Of course, you'll never get 90+% of laymen and 99+% of economists to admit this!

Economics made good progress up until 1936. But government did not like the results and gave us Keynes instead (they even knighted him). Step out of the darkness and learn what they don't teach in government schools: Austrian economics.