[dorlomin]

1.03 is the number we should all remember. If the world economy is growing at a rate of 3% per year that is the number you need to multiply to the for every year you go forward.
So at 42 000 in 2004 should be
05 43 260
06 44 560
07 45 900
08 47 300
09 48 700
10 50 200
This is in a very short bit of basic arithmatic why we have huge oil prices compared to 2004.
We have people who are being priced out of oil and others forced to pay triple and more for the same barrel.
Thank to oil finder for this excellent example of the grinding, crushing simplicity of why the early phases of peak oil is the slow pain of those at the bottom of the income bracket.
Us further up the chain, our pain is coming.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the price goes up, a new base line is reached where more marginal wells are brought on line. This may for a short time create a surge in production obscuring the fact that we are in a decline.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'A')s the price goes up, a new base line is reached where more marginal wells are brought on line. This may for a short time create a surge in production obscuring the fact that we are in a decline.

[AirlinePilot]

I'd agree here with both arguments while giving the hat tip to rockdoc about decline. Part of what has been happening over the last two years or so has been a mask in the shape of demand reductions. Temporary in nature, due to global recession AND high prices for crude, but growth still exists globally. US and OECD demand have flattened slightly during that time and I'd expect the trend to continue with more moderate to slow growth in demand here while global demand remains robust for the foreseeable future.

I find it rather comical that folks want to gloat over a few percentage points here and there when discussing the obvious plateau we are on. I would expect, and have expected, that this is EXACTLY what peak would look like. We will have many fairly large gyrations in production as we move through the economic problems brought on by high oil prices. I would conjecture that as prices run up during those gyrations we will see some of the more costly and difficult projects brought on stream with some associated increases in production. The key point with this though is the amounts brought online dont appear to make up for global decline, except for maybe periods of VERY SHORT duration. Again, an expected trait of PO.

The simple math example up above is key in understanding why we have high oil prices right now and why they will continue that way as long as we cannot move off of a statistical plateau. One other very important point to hold in your head is this....Anyone who says they are sure about oil production numbers has to be taken with a giant boulder of salt. If there is anything we should have all learned by now is that these statistics with production are rather soft in nature. Just look at the two most accepted agencies on the planet and see the difference! (IEA/EIA)

What we do know is this. We have not found enough oil, (despite OF's tabulations!) in provable/produce-able reserves to warrant moving off that plateau. There is good reason to believe we will not meet future global demand growth with non conventional sources. We likely cannot come up with a Saudi type Ghawar find every year from here on out. My conclusion is that we are effectively at peak now and arguing over a few hundred K bbls/day production is pissing in the wind at this point.

I have always expected that the cornies would be doing this sort of gloating. Thats fine, let them have their moment. I'd say that the facts will win out in the end and that moment will be short lived.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')I find it rather comical that folks want to gloat over a few percentage points here and there when discussing the obvious plateau we are on. I would expect, and have expected, that this is EXACTLY what peak would look like.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ve got bad news for you AP: Those were NOT the accepted facts, and my Cornucopian masturbation has come true. So sorry.

[AirlinePilot]

At the time the statement appeared to be correct. I stand corrected. Guessing at outcomes though rarely works over the longer haul.

I still look upon our recent leveling of decline as temporary. I can find numbers which dont paint the rosy picture you are painting Oily, I just dont engage in your game because I understand the nature of fluctuating and revised estimates. I also can plainly see the futility of arguing the bumpy plateau.

[meemoe_uk]

>Guessing at outcomes though rarely works over the longer haul.
You should try being an oil cornucopian instead of a PO doomer. Cornys have predicted more oil for over 100 years, while doomers and there 19th century oil pessimist equivalents linage have predicted oil running out or peaking. One side has a 100% record of being right. The other side has a 0% record of being right. Which side are you on?
The current slow increase aka plateau is peanuts compared to the dip in supply of 1979 oil crisis. The supply dipped and didn't get back up till 1990. That's an 11 years dint in supply.

If the 1970s arab unrest can cause an 11 year dint in world oil supply and a 37 fold price increase in 9 years, then surely no one can be suprised that the current mass invasion of the middle east is instrumental in todays oil supply pattern. That oil supply and price has fared so much better during this major arab unrest, suggests the oil supply is fundamentally healthier than it was in the 70s, and so when things settle down in a few years, expect oil supply to bounce back into growth more steeply than last time.
That's what I'm predicting, by 2014-15.

[Cloud9]

I sure hope this graph continues to the moon. I hope that those of us who think peak oil is real are wrong and progress and big bloc SUVs will be the path to the future. I hope, but then again I fear something else.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', ' ')and so when things settle down in a few years, expect oil supply to bounce back into growth more steeply than last time.That's what I'm predicting, by 2014-15.

[meemoe_uk]

>I sure hope this graph continues to the moon. I hope that those of us who think peak oil is real are wrong and progress and big bloc SUVs will be the path to the future.
Don't bother hoping, and the graph won't go to the moon. Peakoil is real.


Exactly what facts do you base that prediction on? That is quite a bold prediction based on global discovery over the last few years.
I've already said in the previous post. Also I base it on the confidence my oil insider friends have about future oil supply, their predictions, and that they as a group cornucopians have never ever been wrong wrt more oil supply. That's a pretty good track record, 'specially when you compare it with the peakers, doomers and running outer's group track record of being right, which is 0%.

When insiders and cornys start also saying enmass we're peaking , then I'll believe peak oil is about now. Till then I'm not being swayed by the same 100 year old failed empty doomer hype.

Take the side of the group you thinks right.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve already said in the previous post. Also I base it on the confidence my oil insider friends have about future oil supply, their predictions, and that they as a group cornucopians have never ever been wrong wrt more oil supply.

[AirlinePilot]

Joint Forces Command does not agree with you meemoe.....

http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2010.pdf Read starting at page 25 on Energy and see what they conclude. Personally I think they are sugar coating it. Many other open sources NOT INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES are beginning to say this far more often and loudly recently.

I could list many more but I know you won't bother because your "insider friends" obviously know better.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', ' ')I base it on the confidence my oil insider friends have about future oil supply, their predictions, and that they as a group cornucopians have never ever been wrong wrt more oil supply. That's a pretty good track record

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')oint Forces Command does not agree with you meemoe.....

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'H')ave you ever considered that your buddies might be just a teensy weensy bit biased?

[AirlinePilot]

Some of us here try pretty hard not to be OF...your just as guilty as anyone.

[copious.abundance]

And most others here make no attempt whatsoever not to be biased. Problem is, most of them will not admit it.

As for me, unlike some people here I freely admit my bias: I have a bias towards showing the facts of abundant natural resources, the marvels of human ingenuity, and the adaptability of human economic systems, particularly capitalistic ones. When I put the location beneath my avatar as "Cornucopia" there can be no doubt what my bias is.

Now, it would be really nice if the doomers here just came out and admitted that, deep down, they want doom instead of just telling us they expect it, and if the tree-huggers here just came out and admitted they hate oil rather than trying to hide their desires by telling everyone how wonderful light-sweet-crude in shallow reservoirs is, and other such red herrings. Then maybe we could all get our biases out in the open and get it over with.

Now in your case AP, I'm actually going to put you in a special category. You're not quite the garden variety doomer, nor do you seem to be the garden variety tree-hugger. While you seem to have some elements of both, I do believe your own modus operandi is ... well, let's just say you probably need to watch this.

EDIT: As an aside, the more I watch that video, the more I think it's one of the greatest, most concise and to-the-point inspirational videos ever made. Not a word was wasted, and the message could not possibly be clearer.

[AirlinePilot]

You make so many assumptions which are wrong OF . Its part of your normalcy bias. I actually love to debate topics such as these. Worry? Nah, I thrive on this stuff. Labeling it as worry is a failure in your often error ridden assumptions.

[kublikhan]

No big surprises here, but this is another example that peak oil is becoming more mainstream.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f the 16 big U.S. and European oil companies studied by Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey, 14 of them saw their production of petroleum decline in the quarter. Collectively, the drop amounted to 12% of total liquids volumes, or 1.2 million bpd. Their average output for the quarter totalled, 14.67 million bpd. Even excluding the effect of Libya’s issues, the decline was 8%. Overall, the producers of 31 million bpd (out of a worldwide total of roughly 86 million bpd) saw their output fall 4%. No wonder Sankey titled his report “The Death of Non-OPEC.”

The supermajors are finding it harder and harder to pry away the remaining megaprojects from state-run oil companies. Of the biggest OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Iraq, only the latter is eager to bring in the majors to help develop reserves. Add in the fact that natural decline rates on big fields average 5% a year, and it will become ever harder for Big Oil to stay big. Christophe de Margerie, the pragmatic chief executive of French giant Total, believes that global peak oil will hit within five years (see my story on Total: “High Friends In Low Places”).

So what will it mean for the oil market when only OPEC can meet oil demand, especially considering that China and India’s oil needs are ramping from such a tiny per capita base? “It seems very clear that higher and highly volatile oil prices will be a necessary fact of future oil markets,” writes Sankey.