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As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby thuja » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 14:28:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomersUnite', '
')Thats a good chart. I wonder why anyone confuses the credit crisis with peak oil at all?


Because when oil prices tanked down to $30, peakers needed a way to keep the topic relevant. So they had to invent a way to blame the credit crisis on peak oil. At first, peakers kind of went silent, tail between their legs. Then suddenly, the meme was born. The guy who started the ball rolling on the meme was Jeff Rubin, and after that happened, all the rank and file peakers got in line behind him.

And guess what? It didn't work. People became obsessed solely with the jobs and banksters. So peakers should let it go already. And the NEXT oil spike will be skewed partly by speculators, further obscuring the underlying geology.


Mos I know you have spent a lot of time defending the idea that the Recession has been credit and housing based and very minimally oil production based. In a lot of ways you are correct. And I understand your frustration with some Peakers blaming everything on Peak Oil.

However, you neglect to mention that many many economists (not just Rubin) did pin rapidly rising energy prices as "one" of the causes of the recession. To ignore them all makes you seem naive. One of the main reasons economists are fearful of a double dip recession today is...rapidly escalating oil prices.

You are focusing on speculation as key to the current oil price rise...but seriously...if there was an enormous glut of oil on the market, do you really think speculators could triple the price of oil (30-90$) in the last 18 months?

Why not just say that the real estate/credit crisis was the main causative factor to the Recession while also saying that the end of cheap oil is already contributing to a deterioration of the global economy that will be ongoing.

I think most of us agree (including you) that once global production really starts to decline, you will see enormous pressures put on the global economy. But can you really not see that it is already happening now?
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 14:52:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')I understand your frustration with some Peakers blaming everything on Peak Oil.


This is a mischaracterization of the position of people who think that high oil prices helped cause the 2008 recession. Obviously the economy was highly over-leveraged in countries around the world. But the increase in oil prices from 2005-2008, including the spike in 2008, put immense strain on the global economy and helped TRIGGER the recession.

The same thing may be happening again now----the global economy is fragile, but oil prices are rising and putting immense strain on the global economy. Britain already seems started into a double-dip recession, and the US just posted extremely weak job growth numbers----not a good sign, but just what might be expected as higher energy prices hit businesses and cut into profits and hiring.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 15:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')However, you neglect to mention that many many economists (not just Rubin) did pin rapidly rising energy prices as "one" of the causes of the recession. To ignore them all makes you seem naive. One of the main reasons economists are fearful of a double dip recession today is...rapidly escalating oil prices.


It's not about oil prices. It's about geology. Peak oil is about geology. That's why the oil embargo of the 70s wasn't really peak oil (unless you could chalk it up to US peak oil). It was above-ground factors.

So really, the devil's in the details. Above-ground factors can at least be resolved. Geology can't (although many would say "advanced extraction technology" goes a long way to kicking the can down the road).

Anyway, like I said, it all boils down to "calling" "THE BIG ONE"(TM). Which is the superspike brought on by us falling off the production plateau. I'm willing to say that this spike is NOT the big one, and that we're probably a good 2-3 years away from that event.

You can call me on this 6 months or so later. If oil prices don't correct back down to the 80s range, then I'll admit I was wrong (unlike most here who never man-up to past mistakes). But that's my semi-educated opinion and I'm sticking by it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Why not just say that the real estate/credit crisis was the main causative factor to the Recession while also saying that the end of cheap oil is already contributing to a deterioration of the global economy that will be ongoing.


It is contributing, just not as much as peakers want to make it seem like it is.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')I think most of us agree (including you) that once global production really starts to decline, you will see enormous pressures put on the global economy. But can you really not see that it is already happening now?


We're getting there, but it's taken 2 years to creep up. I think the rate of creep has been fairly linear until recently and when things shoot up, you have to think about OTHER factors (like speculation, dollar devaluation, geopolitical chaos, etc...) so you can determine whether it is a transient phenomenon or not.

Just draw a line from 2008 to today and keep drawing that line forward. That's where I think supply/demand would normally take us (barring a stairstep-like multiple-dip recession pattern). But A quick breakout I think is caused by a mania which simply won't last.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Narz » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 15:48:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e extricated ourselves with a one-time techno-efficiency boom. There is are no more techno-efficiency gains to be had.

This type of comment gives doomers a bad name.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Narz » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 15:50:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')this is it.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard that on this forum... I'd have a helluva "doomstead" paid off in full. :)
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Narz » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 17:04:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e extricated ourselves with a one-time techno-efficiency boom. There is are no more techno-efficiency gains to be had.

This type of comment gives doomers a bad name.
Lazy thinking gives cornies a bad name. :razz:

The efficiencies are over. Any other transport improvements are conjecture. In fact car-pooling is at record low. It was mostly a waste of time, a greenwashed attempt at personal mollification.

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NYT, Jan. 28, 2011', 'C')ar-Pooling Declines as Driving Becomes Cheaper
The share of workers who car-pool to work has dropped by half since 1980, largely because the cost of owning a car became more affordable and workplaces spread out into suburbs.

People barely know their neighbors, how are they going to carpool?

That's not a very convincing argument that both social change & technological innovations are "over" and humans will now simply proceed to roll over & dieoff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')this is it.
If I had a dollar for every time I heard that on this forum... I'd have a helluva "doomstead" paid off in full. :)You never heard it from me. Given a little prodding and a maybe some more research, I might be willing to make the Big Bet on This One? Are you prepared?
What's your bet & what do you want to bet?
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Narz » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 17:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') doubt there is good evidence that carpooling saves gas, other than in exceptional circumstances, perhaps when neighbors happen to work at the same place. Otherwise. nah.

I'll bet you $50 this is peak. I'll leave it in the mailbox. Come pick up. I live on Old Arcata Rd.

It probably is peak. The whole debate is about where things go for here, I, like most here, think we're pretty fucked, however no one with any power has tried to do much of anything differently so it's premature to give up entirely.

And picking up your $50 check would probably cost me $1000 in travel expenses & time.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 20:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'A')nd picking up your $50 check would probably cost me $1000 in travel expenses & time.
Not unless you brought something home with you to finance the trip?


Any chance we can keep the hopeful drug deals out of the public eye, lest peakers be mistaken for nothing more than a band of happy dopers?
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 21:42:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')So why don't you go f#ck yourself, kid?


Peak oil gets a bad enough rap as it is from the serious folks, once they can point to peakers suggesting that the transportation and distribution of illegal drugs across state lines is a-okay, it will only get worse. Grow up dumbass.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby FarQ3 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 22:09:14

Here we go again,

Even drug deals will get more expensive! LOL!

Some (not all) here seem to think that if there is an increase in crude storage in the USA then the world is rosy ... Well ... Guess what! ... There is a rest of the world out there folks!

Brent crude is at $100US/bbl and tapis is at $103US/bbl ... Nymex/WTI sits at around 90US/bbl ... That oil in USA storage will soon begin to be sold off into the european and asian markets for $100US/bbl and this will eventually cause the price difference between Brent and Nymex/WTI to close.

I don't think the storage situation for the rest of the world is as rosy as how you guys in the USA have it ... hence the price difference. We here in Oz import 70% of our oil/petroleum produce and we have a huge strategic reserve of around zero barrels. We only have a few major refineries and a few more non-government storage facilities. The average litre of ULP sells for $1.35 here in Perth this morning and the cost of food, water & electricity has increased by much more than people have generally thought acceptable. http://www.fuelwatch.wa.gov.au/index.cfm?pref=metro&date=Today People/families that bought homes in the early to mid 2000's are being squeezed considerably and now with the flood devastation followed by Cyclone Yasi in Queensland food prices are certain to escalate even moreso. I know people that are using their credit cards to pay for their everyday expenses INCLUDING THEIR MORTGAGES! because their job no longer pays them enough to pay for their families necessities. The real estate market is starting to flood here as well i.e. home prices could soon be decreasing. Anyone who thinks that high oil prices did not have a starring role in the subprime crisis really has their head in the sand, there was a reason why these families could not afford to pay their mortgages. Given the choice between starving their families and not buying fuel to travel to/from work, families chose to get out of the housing market ... which is what is happening here again now.

I work on an FPSO just out from Exmouth offshore Western Australia, we used to produce up to 110,000bbls/d now we struggle to achieve 30,000bbls/d even after our latest targeted drilling campaign. The water depth here is 400m and we are in very close vacinity to the Ningaloo Reef World Conservation Area. There are six such facilities in the immediate area all within eyeshot of each other, all with similar production statistics ... the more you can produce on any given day, the more dramatic the decline is!

Peak oil is all to do with extraction/production capacity, geology is just one influence on that capacity, it is not by definition 'Peak Oil'
Oils just aint oils ..... unless you believe the IEA :)
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 22:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FarQ3', '
')Brent crude is at $100US/bbl and tapis is at $103US/bbl ... Nymex/WTI sits at around 90US/bbl ... That oil in USA storage will soon begin to be sold off into the european and asian markets for $100US/bbl and this will eventually cause the price difference between Brent and Nymex/WTI to close.


This is good except for one thing...we need the price of crude to get to $250/bbl.

Maybe another half decade post peak to add to the last 6 years and we'll finally get there? I had hopes for the Suez shutting down, but it doesn't look all that probable right now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Farq3', '
')Peak oil is all to do with extraction/production capacity, geology is just one influence on that capacity, it is not by definition 'Peak Oil'


Yup....which is why peak is much more about investments made by humans than other stuff.
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby thuja » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 23:16:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')I understand your frustration with some Peakers blaming everything on Peak Oil.


This is a mischaracterization of the position of people who think that high oil prices helped cause the 2008 recession. Obviously the economy was highly over-leveraged in countries around the world. But the increase in oil prices from 2005-2008, including the spike in 2008, put immense strain on the global economy and helped TRIGGER the recession.

The same thing may be happening again now----the global economy is fragile, but oil prices are rising and putting immense strain on the global economy. Britain already seems started into a double-dip recession, and the US just posted extremely weak job growth numbers----not a good sign, but just what might be expected as higher energy prices hit businesses and cut into profits and hiring.


Fair enough- I agree with the argument that oil prices played a key role in our recent Recession...

But there are some who would see the Peak at the root of all foreign and domestic crises. Not many here anymore- most fled after 2008 failed to materialize as the EOTWAWKI...
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Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn

Unread postby thuja » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 23:28:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
Anyway, like I said, it all boils down to "calling" "THE BIG ONE"(TM). Which is the superspike brought on by us falling off the production plateau. I'm willing to say that this spike is NOT the big one, and that we're probably a good 2-3 years away from that event.


I really don't believe in the "Big One." I do believe that oil prices will continue to be extremely volatile with huge swings as price spikes lead to recessions, leading to demand destruction, leading back to price spikes. Rinse and repeat.

However, I do agree that once oil production starts to really decline, the economic effects will be immense and are likely to lead to what I would call "Mega-Events".

Skyrocketing food and fuel prices, along with localized scarcity...will lead to famines, riots, revolutions and war. These in turn could lead to a geopolitical global nightmare- aka a mega-event- and that could in turn cause a radical change in our way of life...overnight.

The longer the production declines continue, the more rapid and wild the oil price volatility will be, until it helps trigger a mega-event.

But even a mega-event is not the Big One. Most people will adjust to shortages, scarcity, revolutions and war. The Big One implies End Game, implies Die-off. I seriously doubt a rapid die-off of billions of people as the decline starts to happen. People prophesied that when the peak occurred- and they were dead wrong (pun intended.)

When Rome was sacked multiple times, the Roman Empire fractured, but life went on, as it will for us- even in the face of global oil production decline. It just won't be nearly as fun.
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