$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomersUnite', '
')Thats a good chart. I wonder why anyone confuses the credit crisis with peak oil at all?
PeakOil is You
As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn
Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn
by thuja » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 14:28:31
Because when oil prices tanked down to $30, peakers needed a way to keep the topic relevant. So they had to invent a way to blame the credit crisis on peak oil. At first, peakers kind of went silent, tail between their legs. Then suddenly, the meme was born. The guy who started the ball rolling on the meme was Jeff Rubin, and after that happened, all the rank and file peakers got in line behind him.
And guess what? It didn't work. People became obsessed solely with the jobs and banksters. So peakers should let it go already. And the NEXT oil spike will be skewed partly by speculators, further obscuring the underlying geology.
Mos I know you have spent a lot of time defending the idea that the Recession has been credit and housing based and very minimally oil production based. In a lot of ways you are correct. And I understand your frustration with some Peakers blaming everything on Peak Oil.
However, you neglect to mention that many many economists (not just Rubin) did pin rapidly rising energy prices as "one" of the causes of the recession. To ignore them all makes you seem naive. One of the main reasons economists are fearful of a double dip recession today is...rapidly escalating oil prices.
You are focusing on speculation as key to the current oil price rise...but seriously...if there was an enormous glut of oil on the market, do you really think speculators could triple the price of oil (30-90$) in the last 18 months?
Why not just say that the real estate/credit crisis was the main causative factor to the Recession while also saying that the end of cheap oil is already contributing to a deterioration of the global economy that will be ongoing.
I think most of us agree (including you) that once global production really starts to decline, you will see enormous pressures put on the global economy. But can you really not see that it is already happening now?
No Soup for You!!
-
thuja - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 2202
- Joined: Sat 15 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Portland, Oregon
Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn
by Plantagenet » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 14:52:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')I understand your frustration with some Peakers blaming everything on Peak Oil.
This is a mischaracterization of the position of people who think that high oil prices helped cause the 2008 recession. Obviously the economy was highly over-leveraged in countries around the world. But the increase in oil prices from 2005-2008, including the spike in 2008, put immense strain on the global economy and helped TRIGGER the recession.
The same thing may be happening again now----the global economy is fragile, but oil prices are rising and putting immense strain on the global economy. Britain already seems started into a double-dip recession, and the US just posted extremely weak job growth numbers----not a good sign, but just what might be expected as higher energy prices hit businesses and cut into profits and hiring.
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
-
Plantagenet - Expert
- Posts: 26765
- Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Re: As Phantoms of Peak Oil Fade into Dawn
by mos6507 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 15:33:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')However, you neglect to mention that many many economists (not just Rubin) did pin rapidly rising energy prices as "one" of the causes of the recession. To ignore them all makes you seem naive. One of the main reasons economists are fearful of a double dip recession today is...rapidly escalating oil prices.
')However, you neglect to mention that many many economists (not just Rubin) did pin rapidly rising energy prices as "one" of the causes of the recession. To ignore them all makes you seem naive. One of the main reasons economists are fearful of a double dip recession today is...rapidly escalating oil prices.
It's not about oil prices. It's about geology. Peak oil is about geology. That's why the oil embargo of the 70s wasn't really peak oil (unless you could chalk it up to US peak oil). It was above-ground factors.
So really, the devil's in the details. Above-ground factors can at least be resolved. Geology can't (although many would say "advanced extraction technology" goes a long way to kicking the can down the road).
Anyway, like I said, it all boils down to "calling" "THE BIG ONE"(TM). Which is the superspike brought on by us falling off the production plateau. I'm willing to say that this spike is NOT the big one, and that we're probably a good 2-3 years away from that event.
You can call me on this 6 months or so later. If oil prices don't correct back down to the 80s range, then I'll admit I was wrong (unlike most here who never man-up to past mistakes). But that's my semi-educated opinion and I'm sticking by it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Why not just say that the real estate/credit crisis was the main causative factor to the Recession while also saying that the end of cheap oil is already contributing to a deterioration of the global economy that will be ongoing.
It is contributing, just not as much as peakers want to make it seem like it is.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')I think most of us agree (including you) that once global production really starts to decline, you will see enormous pressures put on the global economy. But can you really not see that it is already happening now?
We're getting there, but it's taken 2 years to creep up. I think the rate of creep has been fairly linear until recently and when things shoot up, you have to think about OTHER factors (like speculation, dollar devaluation, geopolitical chaos, etc...) so you can determine whether it is a transient phenomenon or not.
Just draw a line from 2008 to today and keep drawing that line forward. That's where I think supply/demand would normally take us (barring a stairstep-like multiple-dip recession pattern). But A quick breakout I think is caused by a mania which simply won't last.
