[DoomersUnite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Look again at the graph from the World Bank in your link. It shows clear, short-lived declines in global GDP in 2001 and 1996 (LOOK! The GPD line stops going up and goes down), and also a broader period of decline in 1981-82 (LOOK! The GDP line stops going up and goes down again).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')

[DoomersUnite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')

I think this is the 100th time I've had to post this chart. It's sooo tedious.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomersUnite', '
')Thats a good chart. I wonder why anyone confuses the credit crisis with peak oil at all?

[Cloud9]

Ok Moss, I believe cheap oil has peaked. I think higher gas prices will result and push the underclass out of automobiles forever. You believe other wise. Neither of us know anything. We simply have our beliefs.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomersUnite', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Look again at the graph from the World Bank in your link. It shows clear, short-lived declines in global GDP in 2001 and 1996 (LOOK! The GPD line stops going up and goes down), and also a broader period of decline in 1981-82 (LOOK! The GDP line stops going up and goes down again).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'O')k Moss, I believe cheap oil has peaked. I think higher gas prices will result and push the underclass out of automobiles forever. You believe other wise. Neither of us know anything. We simply have our beliefs.

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')That's another logical fallacy that bugs me, the tendency among peakers (pstarr is the poster child of this) to treat "peak oil caused the credit crisis" as an ideological litmus test for peak oilers.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')All major oil price rises created recessions, so why not this one ?

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Arthur, I think we agree that economist Jeffrey Rubin's work on the link between rises in oil prices and global recession is useful and important, but Rubin's work is not universally accepted either in the economic community or here at this site.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', ' ')I don't think any economist is universally accepted anyway, which isn't too suprising as economics is a lot of things but not a science for sure, but basically Rubin is right on this one I think (we would need several earth, world economies, and histories to test the thing !)

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', ' ')I don't think any economist is universally accepted anyway, which isn't too suprising as economics is a lot of things but not a science for sure, but basically Rubin is right on this one I think (we would need several earth, world economies, and histories to test the thing !)

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '.')..the 1979 peak oil! ...

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '.')..the 1979 peak oil! ...

[sparky]

.
Peak Oil is no phantom , it's an irresistible fact .
Doom is certain but it's going to be a decades long process ,
some might be fooled into thinking the nerds once more will work something out
Not really ,
thermodynamic is a bitch
and the Carnot cycle is the two hundred year old last word on thermal engines
Some might think a great readjustment is possible
keep dreaming
some might see a mad max movie , that's not how things work out in the real world
there always is dominance structures , it's a tax on being left in peace

we , or the next generation are doomed , so smile now enjoy and meditate my old man wisdom
enjoy today ,no matter how bad things are , they always can get worst

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
That's another logical fallacy that bugs me, the tendency among peakers (pstarr is the poster child of this) to treat "peak oil caused the credit crisis" as an ideological litmus test for peak oilers.

[Jenab]

When I consider the effect of fossil fuels depletion on the economy, I think of the game Jenga. That's the game where you build a tower out of little blocks and then start pulling them out from the bottom and placing them up at the top. The tower goes up and up. The base gets more and more unstable. Eventually, one of the players removes the WRONG block (and, at that time, there might not BE any right blocks) and the whole tower comes crashing down. So with the economy. I think things will appear on the surface to be going up and up, while the underpinnings get thinner and unstable. Then the crash.

[bratticus]

OECD current membership: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.

(live economagic chart)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]‘Peak Demand,’ Yes, But Not the Nice Kind
By Chris Nelder
Friday, March 5th, 2010

The last two years have seen the marginal buyers of oil shift decisively to the non-OECD countries. A gallon of fuel delivers so much value in China and India–think peasants on scooters–that even at $120 a barrel, remarkable economic growth rates are possible. ...

The fact is that peak demand in the OECD is not merely a function of efficiency gains and biofuels substitution, aided by a temporary recession.

... peak demand will be the result of a permanent state of increasing depression in which non-OECD countries not only more than make up for the loss of OECD demand, but outbid them for the marginal barrel.

The true import of peak oil, therefore, may not be sustained high prices, but economic shrinkage.

[Revi]

I think that's what's going on now. There are places, like Egypt where people can't afford food any more, and places like the US where a lot of people can't afford to drive any more. It will be a ratcheting up of the price of commodities until it throws a lot of people off. Unfortunately a lot of people have no choice, like the people of Tunisia and Egypt. Food is a giffen good. The price will keep going up because people have to buy it. Here in the US we will pay a lot more for gas because we live in a culture that makes it hard not to have a car. At some point a lot of people will quit driving, or cut down and that's the point when the price will have hit it's peak.