by vtsnowedin » Mon 03 Jan 2011, 23:41:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')OK how many Volts can the present electric grid charge without blowing a major fuse?
Bear in mind that there are more then 250 million registered cars in the US today.
It would depend on load balancing. Electric infrastructure is designed to handle a peak load....if the load were blanced around that peak, additional infrastructure isn't the issue. I was kicking around some ideas with a district rep from the largest electric utility in the US over Christmas, he's a little worried about concentrations as the technology is implemented rather than running his coal plants at a higher base load.
For example, lets say 5 people on a single suburban transformer buy Volts. They all install fast chargers for their garage and perfectly coordinate their charging so that only one of them at a time is utilizing it. It will never happen that way, of course, but if it did, no one even notices. But, if they all plug them in all at the same time? Transformer goes BOOM. The electric utilities have to plan for this, and know that their regulatory boards aren't going to just let them build in a doubling of the cost of electricity to cover their increased infrastructure to allow EVERYONE to buy a Volt.
So these concentrations of buyers have caught their eye. Nissan and Chevy both were making the rounds watching and warning for just these sorts of issues as well.
So you are telling me that people can buy enough volts to "Solve" peak oil and all the power companies need to do is a little planning to keep the grid up without major expansions of lines and power plants run on coal or nuclear fuel? I'm not buying that one or any bridges in NY NY.
by Xenophobe » Mon 03 Jan 2011, 23:53:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')My gosh- a stake through the heart of the myth of peak oil...why that must mean that it has solved the problem as we easily transition to an electric based world...
Who said anything about easy? Heck, who said doing something worth doing was ever easy? The good news in all of this is that the roads and parking and home refueling is set up and running already, and all those ICE suckers paid for it! Just hand out the EVs and lets get with the program!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But the weird thing is, that oil prices continue to rise. Economists and oil executives are seeing ever escalating oil prices. If Peak Oil has been solved, this shouldn't be happening.
Incorrect. Peak oil was supposed to cause oil supply issues, prices are certainly one of those, but so were shortages and rationing. Real crude prices began climbing when the US stopped being the global swing producer around 1970. That certainly wasn't a global peak oil, the price rise happened because of all sorts of other things, most particularly OPEC becoming the swing producer. Everything since then has just been a continuation of the ever upward trend in real crude prices.
Solving peak oil is a man by man, woman by woman, county/country/regional issue and some of us solve it faster than others. I've got a pretty good solution going right now. Volt owners have a better one. If you own a V10 powered monster truck, you haven't solved peak oil yet, and I don't know what it will take to make you WANT a peak oil solution. But I do know that NOW, just within the past MONTH, I can SHOW you that solution. I walk with you down to the Chevy dealership and have a conversation. Maybe you choose not to solve your own peak oil problem today, or next month, or next year. But sometime, under some conditions, you will. And this is good! Why aren't more peakers rushing out to solve their own personal peak issues?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
') I don't understand. I thought the Volt saved us. Why are they predicting 5 $ gallon gas?
Who cares? If you own a Volt, let it go to $10! Thats the entire point! The rest of the world gets peak oil, and YOU get peak oil solution!
by thuja » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 00:20:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')My gosh- a stake through the heart of the myth of peak oil...why that must mean that it has solved the problem as we easily transition to an electric based world...
Who said anything about easy? Heck, who said doing something worth doing was ever easy? The good news in all of this is that the roads and parking and home refueling is set up and running already, and all those ICE suckers paid for it! Just hand out the EVs and lets get with the program!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But the weird thing is, that oil prices continue to rise. Economists and oil executives are seeing ever escalating oil prices. If Peak Oil has been solved, this shouldn't be happening.
Incorrect. Peak oil was supposed to cause oil supply issues, prices are certainly one of those, but so were shortages and rationing. Real crude prices began climbing when the US stopped being the global swing producer around 1970. That certainly wasn't a global peak oil, the price rise happened because of all sorts of other things, most particularly OPEC becoming the swing producer. Everything since then has just been a continuation of the ever upward trend in real crude prices.
Solving peak oil is a man by man, woman by woman, county/country/regional issue and some of us solve it faster than others. I've got a pretty good solution going right now. Volt owners have a better one. If you own a V10 powered monster truck, you haven't solved peak oil yet, and I don't know what it will take to make you WANT a peak oil solution. But I do know that NOW, just within the past MONTH, I can SHOW you that solution. I walk with you down to the Chevy dealership and have a conversation. Maybe you choose not to solve your own peak oil problem today, or next month, or next year. But sometime, under some conditions, you will. And this is good! Why aren't more peakers rushing out to solve their own personal peak issues?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
') I don't understand. I thought the Volt saved us. Why are they predicting 5 $ gallon gas?
Who cares? If you own a Volt, let it go to $10! Thats the entire point! The rest of the world gets peak oil, and YOU get peak oil solution!
by Xenophobe » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 00:48:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Who cares if oil hits 5, hits 10 or even 20 as you've said? Does this pass as reasoned argument in your world? Truly?
Yes. Gasoline cost to the American consumer is a 1:1 effect, BUT ONLY ON THEIR GASOLINE CONSUMPTION COSTS. Americans mitigate against increased gasoline costs by doing away with some of that 50% discretionary car use they don't need, each to his own means. Fuel costs DON'T cause 1:1 increases in prices of other things, because in other industries fuel costs can be apportioned to the product being shipped.
Think...tripling the price of diesel fuel doesn't triple the price of the celery they are hauling down the interstate, rather, the incremental fuel increase cost gets split out among 50,000# of celery, so the price of celery goes up 10% even though fuel went up 300%. Same with transoceanic shipping, rail, etc etc.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')And yet now...for some reason...you have become a recent convert to the idea that Peak Oil does have consequences, a strong effect on price and that that is a good thing and should be encouraged (even taxed at that rate before the market does it for us.)
You are correct in one respect. While I have always accepted peak happening some years ago, and not been surprised by its measly effects, I have become convinced by this very website that the things Doomers have been hoping for, dreaming for, PRAYING for, NEED to happen. Sooner rather than later, immediately if possible. And I mean, I want the whole enchilada, I want a 100% increase in gasoline costs NOW.
I've held out half a hope that peak oil would solve Americans crack crude habit, that the tree huggers could get some legislation passed, or all energy development banned, but it was all a bust. So now, people must STEP UP! We must DEMAND higher costs for our fuel, for the betterment of all. There is no other way, peak couldn't do it, hurricanes didn't do it, outrageous SUV sales couldn't soak up enough crude to create shortness in supply, it appears that there is no accidental way to do this...WE MUST DO IT OURSELVES!!!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But of course you neglect to discuss that large upward price swings do indeed have rather massive global economic effects...if they didn't you wouldn't be seeing dozens of news articles and op-eds warning of oil prices going up and their likely negative economic effects...such as...a return to a deeper recession.
A deeper recession...we currently aren't in a recession. In either case, it wouldn't matter! In our reorganization, funded by the huge increases in fuel costs, we build windmill factories, nuke plants, hand out PV's to everyone who wants them, fire up every shale drilling rig in the country, and we become strong in our labor for a better world! And by extension...the demise of crude oil dependence. This is the only way. Peak has crapped out, global warming scares aren't doing it, the people advocating it have become compromised by their ineptitude, it's up to us humans to now to do the right thing, and DEMAND our higher cost crude!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Do you discount the likely drastic economic effects of rapidly increasing oil prices?
by mos6507 » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 00:57:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')we currently aren't in a recession.
Tell that to the 99ers.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'i')t's up to us humans to now to do the right thing, and DEMAND our higher cost crude!
Go sell that to Sarah Palin and the Tea Partiers.
by Xenophobe » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 01:12:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')we currently aren't in a recession.
Tell that to the 99ers.
What does a pro football team have to do with this?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'i')t's up to us humans to now to do the right thing, and DEMAND our higher cost crude!
Go sell that to Sarah Palin and the Tea Partiers.
by peripato » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 08:20:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')So you are telling me that people can buy enough volts to "Solve" peak oil and all the power companies need to do is a little planning to keep the grid up without major expansions of lines and power plants run on coal or nuclear fuel? I'm not buying that one or any bridges in NY NY.
Chevy isn't going to go build a bazillion Volts TOMORROW you silly willy! They are going to build them just fast enough to synchronize with 2 other things, namely...
1) electric utilities to do any load balancing or upgrades to make sure they can fuel them as they gradually come online so they can make a tidy profit and
2) China and India to have as much expensive crude as they want to expand their auto economies!
American gasoline demand destruction, ongoing for 5 years now, is going to match GREAT with these happenings!
Xenoprobe's latest dumb-ass signature reads;
"After 2008-2010 I would say the SUV becomes valueless."
po.com troll displaying peak oil consequences knowledge, July9,2006 However;
SUVs lead U.S. auto sales growth despite efforts to improve fuel efficiency;$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;You have about 5 percent of the market that is green and committed to fuel efficiency," said Mike Jackson, the chief executive of AutoNation, the largest auto retailer in the country. "But the other 95 percent will give up an extra 5 mpg in fuel economy for a better cup holder."
Overall, car and light-truck purchases climbed 12 percent from January to November, led by the consumer tilt toward SUVs and pickups, according to recent numbers from Autodata.
That's right, Americans are pissing away their entire future, just so they can enjoy a few more years of excess and comfort.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')M expects to sell about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000 Leafs in the United States, a very small number compared with the millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually.
This is true even when the government offers as much as $7,500 in incentives, as it is doing for the Leaf and Volt.
Corralling U.S. drivers into more fuel-efficient cars can be difficult, particularly because gasoline has remained off its peak prices of 2007. When fuel prices are low, it takes longer for consumers to get a return on their investment in fuel-saving technologies, such as hybrids and plug-in vehicles
by Lore » Tue 04 Jan 2011, 10:27:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'H')ow many ppl can even afford the Volt?
Sounds like the new H3 of 2011 to me?
This is true, the $41K is only the base price. Even though there is a tax credit available, you still have to qualify for a loan of that amount. Wal-Mart workers need not apply. Most people are buying new cars today with a $5,000 plus down payment, that is those who can purchase with top notch credit scores.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
-
Lore
- Fission
-
- Posts: 9021
- Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet
-
What proportion of the peak oil problem do you think Chevy volts can solve? Or are you just being sarcastic?
