[basil_hayden]

2011 already appears to me that it's going to be a real struggle, for a variety of reasons.

Let's see, looks like we start the year at $90ish.

Dollar plunges in spite of economy leveling off - $115ish.

Economy and dollar tank but economy goes first so back to $90 (the new normal) before the end of the year after a dance with $75.

High: $116
Low: $76
Close: $86

I feel comfortable with the way I think it'll play out, but not with my actual numbers.

[basil_hayden]

2011 already appears to me that it's going to be a real struggle, for a variety of reasons.

Let's see, looks like we start the year at $90ish.

Dollar plunges in spite of economy leveling off - $115ish.

Economy and dollar tank but economy goes first so back to $90 (the new normal) before the end of the year after a dance with $75.

High: $116
Low: $76
Close: $86

I feel comfortable with the way I think it'll play out, but not with my actual numbers.

[davep]

Most people seem to be betting conservatively after 2010's relatively stable pricing. Hmmm.

Low: 65

High: 145

Close: 135

[thuja]

Low 85
High 145
Close 130

And I predict a very serious geopolitical event triggering that high...prob massive terrorist attack...

[kublikhan]

Here are a few of the expert opinions I could find:

Russia Low: $81
Russia High: $81
Russia Close: $81
Russia raises 2011 oil price forecast to $81 per barrel

EIA Low: $84
EIA High: $89
EIA Close: $89
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

Goldman Sachs Low: $91
Goldman Sachs High: $107
Goldman Sachs Close: $107
Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Prediction for 2011

JPMorgan Low: $92
JPMorgan High: $100
JPMorgan Close: $100
JP Morgan expects oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel

[Outcast_Searcher]

High: $137.58
Low: $79.58
Close: $125.58

The world economy continues a sluggish overall recovery. Third world crude oil demand growth inexorably continues apace.

Our wonderful congress (both parties) continue to lead like absolute idiots and refuse to meaningfully attack deficits. Dollar holders are NOT amused.

Each of the above are somewhat bullish for crude pricing in 2011.

One good bout of overdoing it on economic optimism, and then pessimism leads to a fairly wide price range for 2011, but by yearend, the net bullish factors for crude oil prevail.

[Timo]

Low - $77
High - $165
Close - $135

Recovery becomes a dead word. It won't happen, and people will stop expecting any such thing.

Actual discussion begins in the US of downsizing, meaning states like Alaska, Hawaii, Arizona, and Texas might stand the risk of becoming their own countries.

Cities actross the US start going bankrupt, raising the unemployment rate above 13%.

Investments in renewable energies are the sole domain of countries like China and Japan.

2012 - The world population actually levels off, precipitated by famine, disease, lack of water, and lack of hope.

[Pops]

Thought I'd better give it a go...

Yea, the new normal ain't what it used to be...
China is liking oil (+13% YoY in Nov)
Russia is the worlds largest exporter (not peaked yet!?) and is making nice sweetheart deals with China and India (china pipeline started flowing on Monday)
Depleting Mexico is no longer the number two source for US oil (they are still good for dope tho)
Venezuela (the new No. 2) capacity is deteriorating (-200k b/day from '08) and sales to China increasing too: +500kb/d - big dot...
KSA is in it's comfort zone and can't sustain more than it's doing now for more than a few months and I don't think it really wants to either.
Iraq is a flat line... Big Dot
Oh yea, the IEA admitted Conventional oil peaked a few years back and they missed it.

Kinda on the plus side is US reserves are up for the first time in years because higher prices make crappy oil (and "almost oil") fields profitable so they can move them to the positive side of the page - the down side of course is that sorta-oil is only viable at the higher price.
The record amount of oil in storage this summer (26 days) is being drawn down in record fashion (though still in contango) as people tired of the recession get into the holiday spirit of borrowing money - at $90 this is also a big dot.

So I'm not sure there is a whole lot of spare capacity available on short notice, after all, we are at the all time high production of liquids right now even with the crude price at $90 and China says it's going to keep gdp growth to ONLY 9% in 2011...

Speaking of the recession, layoffs have pruned some deadwood from the expense side of the corporations' ledgers making them look profitable again (not to mention the number of deadwood companies no longer around) and the last run-up in energy prices likewise helped shake out vulnerable homeowners/cardholders, so as far as demand in the US goes (and other Formerly Rich Worders), the 99ers will go out with a whimper as their UI checks run out.

On the flip side of positive demand might be muni defaults and layoffs, increasing "Starve the Beast" sentiment in US politics, perhaps Moodys downgrading US debt(!?), on top of the woes of the EU and elsewhere and of course there could be a Chinese RE bubble implosion or the Euro might collapse killing demand And driving up the value of the US$...

On balance I'm thinking there is room for the price to move up considerably and stay there for some time simply because of economic Darwinism - basically the people left in the economy right now are in relatively better shape compared to the population in '07 so they can stand a higher energy price. Oh yea and The Bernack is pumping out US$ as fast as he can...


Low $89.99 - January 3, 2011

High - $138.99 - July 25, 2011

Close $109.99

(+/- $50)

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'v')tsnowedin 137 77 119
dolanbaker 124 82 115
sparky 150 80 122
obixman 135 82.5 130
Ibon 147 72 123
eXpat 140 90 120
SteinarN 112 79 102
TheDude 110 82 98
careinke 151 69.15 148
Carlhole 110 80
PeakOiler 115.49 79.65 110.11
Daniel_Plainview 99 83 88
ColossalContrarian 119 83 101
basil_hayden 116 76 86
davep 145 65 135
thuja 145 85 130
Outcast_Searcher 137.58 79.58 125.58
Timo 165 77 135
Pops 138.99 89.99 109.99

Current Avgs 131.4242105 79.57210526 116.5377778

[Cog]

High $95
Low $80
Close $95

My theory is that demand destruction will kick in around $95/bbl and we will oscillate between $80-$95 with supply issues resulting in an increase by the end of the year.

[pup55]

For your viewing pleasure, here's the high, low, close and average for the last few years.....

note that it is pretty unusual for the high to be at year end....Note also that this was a pretty orderly situation until about 2005.....

Do with this information what you will....

[biofuel13]

High: $137.52

Low: $74.68

Close: $135.14

[PeakOiler]

Here's my list so far. 22 players. (pupp55: I think you left out SeaGypsy's estimate in your last posted list.) Otherwise our averages agreed when I omitted SeaGypsy's guesses from the calculation.



The graph shown below the list is a plot of the number of players vs. the overall differences.
The list is sorted by Name, then "overall diff". (Oil values being zero at this time...)

Note the outlier point. That's Carlhole's point because he didn't give a close value, so his "overall diff" is the lowest. That will change once the oil price values are entered.

Carlhole: Please post a closing value.

[davep]

I think he's suggesting that the singularity will occur in 2011 and consequently oil will no longer need to be traded by midnight on Dec 31st. That's a pretty bold prediction

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '[')s]High - 119[/s]
Low - 83
Close - 101

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I') think he's suggesting that the singularity will occur in 2011 and consequently oil will no longer need to be traded by midnight on Dec 31st. That's a pretty bold prediction

[TheDude]

Averages for YOY, with 3 year moving averages:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Year Ave YOY 3YMA

1987 4.14
1988 -3.19
1989 3.66 1.54
1990 4.83 1.77
1991 -2.97 1.84
1992 -0.94 0.31
1993 -2.11 -2.01
1994 -1.26 -1.44
1995 1.25 -0.71
1996 3.67 1.22
1997 -1.5 1.14
1998 -6.16 -1.33
1999 4.81 -0.95
2000 11.04 3.23
2001 -4.36 3.83
2002 0.17 2.28
2003 5.01 0.27
2004 10.32 5.17
2005 15.05 10.13
2006 9.53 11.63
2007 6.3 10.29
2008 27.26 14.36
2009 -37.92 -1.45
2010 17.67 2.34
')

Looks almost neatly cyclic through 1999. Must try this out with a longer time series later on.

[kublikhan]

Here's mine:
Low: $90
High: $110
Close: $110

BTW, are we adding in the "expert" opinion's to the chart this year(EIA, JPMorgan, etc.)?

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I') think he's suggesting that the singularity will occur in 2011 and consequently oil will no longer need to be traded by midnight on Dec 31st. That's a pretty bold prediction

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW, are we adding in the "expert" opinion's to the chart this year(EIA, JPMorgan, etc.)?