[eastbay]

High: $135
Low: $78
Close: $127

[Revi]

I'm going to go with a high of $157, because we might get to it this year.
A low of $80 and a closing price of $110.

It seems like we may have something happen during the course of 2011 that could drive the price up, and $10 more than the last all time high would be about right.

That's my WAG.

[lper100km]

Here’s my WAG

High $165
Low $88
Close $165

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'B')y all means. If the PO.com news sleuths come across some "expert estimates" feel free to post them. Since they do not usually give the high, low and close, we can't really add them in the standings.....

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')
Is Brent usually $2 higher than WTI? Perhaps these should be adjusted down $2 to convert to WTI.

[TheAntiDoomer]

High: 111
Low: 76
Close: 92

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') Reuters poll forecast oil prices will average over $86 a barrel next year on declining inventories and demand growth from Asia.

[Timo]

This question is based purely on ignorance. That's self-admitted, so please, nobody point this fact out to me. I know it all well enough. But, here goes.......... Suppose, just for the sake of hypothetical thinking, that the price of oil was based in some other currency other than the dollar. I know this woldn't make it more available to anybody, but all PO arguments aside, what affect would this change have on the US and global economies? Prices now seem to be rising, but the value of the US dollar is also falling, which would seem to have a tie. Would a more stable currency also stabilize the prices of crude? Have fun with this one because i have no idea what the answer is.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'T')his question is based purely on ignorance. That's self-admitted, so please, nobody point this fact out to me. I know it all well enough. But, here goes.......... Suppose, just for the sake of hypothetical thinking, that the price of oil was based in some other currency other than the dollar. I know this woldn't make it more available to anybody, but all PO arguments aside, what affect would this change have on the US and global economies? Prices now seem to be rising, but the value of the US dollar is also falling, which would seem to have a tie. Would a more stable currency also stabilize the prices of crude? Have fun with this one because i have no idea what the answer is.

[Rod_Cloutier]

Low $91.00- the current price

High $500.00- the price where the government steps into the market to slap on price controls.

Close: $250.00- Government rationing, oil subsidized by the government printing dollars.

Peak oil was breached years ago, we're on the downward swing. The US will have to do what all third world countries have to do, and will step in to subsidize the price of food and energy to keep the public peace.

[Revi]

Wow! Repent, you put in some really bold figures. I thought I was on the high side with $157, but $500? I think it's possible, but it would have to get really tough for that to happen. I could see it with some kind of Persian Gulf debacle or something, though.

[PeakOiler]

Here's the list of players so far in my spreadsheet:



All players please check to make sure your guesses I entered are correct.

The list is currently sorted by "Overall" then by "Name" , ascending, with all oil prices set at zero. These data give us quite a range!

$157 eh, Revi? I might need some more maple syrup, and perhaps a bottle of pupps' home brew this year...

[TheDude]

EIA Cushing Free-on-Board Spot real prices, with 3 year moving average:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'US FOB YOY Ave 3YMA
US FOB YOY Ave 3YMA
1973 $5.21
1974 $10.91 $5.70
1975 $11.18 $0.27
1976 $12.15 $0.97 $2.31
1977 $13.24 $1.09 $0.78
1978 $13.29 $0.05 $0.70
1979 $20.07 $6.78 $2.64
1980 $32.37 $12.30 $6.38
1981 $35.15 $2.78 $7.29
1982 $32.02 -$3.13 $3.98
1983 $27.81 -$4.21 -$1.52
1984 $27.60 -$0.21 -$2.52
1985 $25.84 -$1.76 -$2.06
1986 $12.52 -$13.32 -$5.10
1987 $16.69 $4.17 -$3.64
1988 $13.25 -$3.44 -$4.20
1989 $16.89 $3.64 $1.46
1990 $20.37 $3.48 $1.23
1991 $16.89 -$3.48 $1.21
1992 $16.77 -$0.12 -$0.04
1993 $14.71 -$2.06 -$1.89
1994 $14.18 -$0.53 -$0.90
1995 $15.69 $1.51 -$0.36
1996 $19.32 $3.63 $1.54
1997 $16.94 -$2.38 $0.92
1998 $10.76 -$6.18 -$1.64
1999 $16.47 $5.71 -$0.95
2000 $26.27 $9.80 $3.11
2001 $20.46 -$5.81 $3.23
2002 $22.63 $2.17 $2.05
2003 $25.86 $3.23 -$0.14
2004 $33.75 $7.89 $4.43
2005 $47.60 $13.85 $8.32
2006 $57.03 $9.43 $10.39
2007 $66.36 $9.33 $10.87
2008 $90.32 $23.96 $14.24
2009 $57.78 -$32.54 $0.25
2010 $79.33 $17.41 $3.12
')

How about these historic prices?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Year Price YOY 3YMA
1946 $1.63
1947 $2.16 $0.53
1948 $2.77 $0.61
1949 $2.77 $0.00 $0.38
1950 $2.77 $0.00 $0.20
1951 $2.77 $0.00 $0.00
1952 $2.77 $0.00 $0.00
1953 $2.92 $0.15 $0.05
1954 $2.99 $0.07 $0.07
1955 $2.93 -$0.06 $0.05
1956 $2.94 $0.01 $0.01
1957 $3.14 $0.20 $0.05
1958 $3.00 -$0.14 $0.02
1959 $3.00 $0.00 $0.02
1960 $2.91 -$0.09 -$0.08
1961 $2.85 -$0.06 -$0.05
1962 $2.85 $0.00 -$0.05
1963 $2.91 $0.06 $0.00
1964 $3.00 $0.09 $0.05
1965 $3.01 $0.01 $0.05
1966 $3.10 $0.09 $0.06
1967 $3.12 $0.02 $0.04
1968 $3.18 $0.06 $0.06
1969 $3.32 $0.14 $0.07
1970 $3.39 $0.07 $0.09
1971 $3.60 $0.21 $0.14
1972 $3.60 $0.00 $0.09
1973 $4.75 $1.15 $0.45
1974 $9.35 $4.60 $1.92
1975 $12.21 $2.86 $2.87
1976 $13.10 $0.89 $2.78
1977 $14.40 $1.30 $1.68
1978 $14.95 $0.55 $0.91
1979 $25.10 $10.15 $4.00
1980 $37.42 $12.32 $7.67
1981 $35.75 -$1.67 $6.93
1982 $31.83 -$3.92 $2.24
1983 $29.08 -$2.75 -$2.78
1984 $28.75 -$0.33 -$2.33
1985 $26.92 -$1.83 -$1.64
1986 $14.44 -$12.48 -$4.88
1987 $17.75 $3.31 -$3.67
1988 $14.87 -$2.88 -$4.02
1989 $18.33 $3.46 $1.30
1990 $23.19 $4.86 $1.81
1991 $20.20 -$2.99 $1.78
1992 $19.25 -$0.95 $0.31
1993 $16.75 -$2.50 -$2.15
1994 $15.66 -$1.09 -$1.51
1995 $16.75 $1.09 -$0.83
1996 $20.46 $3.71 $1.24
1997 $18.64 -$1.82 $0.99
1998 $11.91 -$6.73 -$1.61
1999 $16.56 $4.65 -$1.30
2000 $27.39 $10.83 $2.92
2001 $23.00 -$4.39 $3.70
2002 $22.81 -$0.19 $2.08
2003 $27.69 $4.88 $0.10
2004 $37.66 $9.97 $4.89
2005 $50.04 $12.38 $9.08
2006 $58.30 $8.26 $10.20
2007 $64.20 $5.90 $8.85
2008 $91.48 $27.28 $13.81
2009 $53.48 -$38.00 -$1.61
2010 $70.67 $17.19 $2.16')

20 solid years in a 10 cent band. Looks like petroleum just has the occasional bad decade.

Pup - regarding the historic minimum price in a year, that site says 1980 was $99.11 in June '10 dollars. I know there are inflation adjusters where you can plow in a series like this at the click of a mouse.

[Revi]

The third time's the charm. I think my guess at $157 as a high could really happen this year. We'll see. It all depends on what they do with the printing press later on this year, and if oil gets tight.

[Midessa]

Ok last year I my predictions were:

low 75
high 100
close 100

I think I did ok but I was consistently about $7 to $8 dollars high. My main assumption was that the economy would improve gradually but steadily resulting in the high coming near the close.

I dunno, my gut tells me that the same scenario should be valid this year, I just need to correct for my high estimates. Last year I didn't leave any room for the price to down much, so I was gritting my teeth as it dropped for a while. I am going to give the low more wiggle this time.

So:

low $82
high $112
close $112

[wisconsin_cur]

Despite have my clock cleaned in 2010, lets give it another spin of the wheel.

In a hat tip to the psychology of previous investment I will keep the same high I predicted last year: High: 138.95

For the same reason, I think we will see a return of volatility and will predict a low of 72.12

Close: 98.99

While I would appreciate the love and respect of all present, my pocket book hopes that I am as wrong (and wrong in the same direction) as last year.

[Gerben]

High: 130
Low: 86
Close: 125

[Xenophobe]

High 110
Low 70
Close 95

[roccman]

Ok - not to throw the curve (again)

High - $225

Low - $70

Close - $185

Cheers

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')ow! Repent, you put in some really bold figures. I thought I was on the high side with $157, but $500? I think it's possible, but it would have to get really tough for that to happen. I could see it with some kind of Persian Gulf debacle or something, though.