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No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in Sept

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Lore » Sat 09 Oct 2010, 21:03:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')The reality is we all could all live much simpler lives and be just, if not more so, as happy.



Nonsense. People who are having to choose between eating or keeping a roof over their head do not need to be "living simpler lives" and it is cruel to suggest they should be when others of us have so much excess. This is the kind of philosophy that convinces peasants to labor in the fields for their masters for the good of their souls and crapola like that. I refuse to accept it. :x


The nonsense is we don't really need, Ipads, high speed Internet, cell phones, cable TV, big box stores, endless chains of fast food restaurants, multiple new cars every three years, homes bigger then 1,200sq/ft., miles of motor ways, and power grids feeding and leading to desert cities with their irrigated golf courses that shouldn't have been put there in the first place. That all this excess could have been put to better use by equalizing the standard of living for everyone and concentrating on making better people, rather then better consumers.

None of the above existed in my early years of life. I can't say, as I recall, people being any sadder for the lack of such things. In fact, just the opposite.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Lore » Sat 09 Oct 2010, 21:22:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')nd what the hell security do people have in our society? Almost none. :x

(sorry, just really grumpy about this stuff right now. See thread in the Planning Forum to tell us how you have simplified your life, given away all your stuff to the poor, and how you are much happier now. Thanks. :x )


Well since we are not being over run by the worst of what the world presently has to offer, there is still actually quite a bit of security in this country. I'm not optimistic as to how long it will last, but you can walk into any hospital and get emergency service and show up at places where people will give you food, shelter and clothing for nothing. Doesn't take much of a search in recent history to see where there has been times when none of this was available.

I'm only referring to how things should be not how they are or will be.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby copious.abundance » Sat 09 Oct 2010, 23:11:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I')ncidentally, where's Oilfinder? I'd like to hear his explanation of how 95,000 jobs lost is actually "sideways recovery."

And where is Sixstrings in the 500K jobless claims thread? Interesting he hasn't re-appeared in his own thread now that the number's gone down. Curious.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Ludi » Sun 10 Oct 2010, 16:49:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')all this excess could have been put to better use by equalizing the standard of living for everyone and concentrating on making better people, rather then better consumers.



That's true, but those things represent jobs for people now. If you're going to be preaching simplicity to people, you have to be able to tell them how you expect them to make a living once you take the complications out of our society, complications which represent our way of life. I'm not part of the "American lifestyle is non-negotiable" crowd but neither am I of the opinion that it is appropriate to tell people who are hanging by a thread that they need to simplify their lives and that they have plenty of security because they aren't being attacked and eaten by their neighbors (or whatever vision you might entertain about what "less security" might be).

What do you expect people to do for a living if they can't get a job which will pay for their food, housing, medical care, etc? I don't know what income strata you used to be in before you simplified your life, but I'm guessing it was not an average income, and I'm seriously doubting it was a lower-middle class income or poor income. Like I say, it is very easy for someone with more than they need to tell other people to simplify their lives. To say we have too much junk in our lives is true but it is also extremely trite. Our economy is based on junk, take out the junk and we have no economy. What do you propose to replace it with? I have not seen any Tea Party, Republican, or Democrat forward any suggestions about what we should replace our economy with if we're going to do away with the excess. What are YOUR suggestions?

I think it would be great if we could get the junk out of our lives, but I also recognize that other people besides myself depend on that junk for their livelihood. The question of HOW do we transition to a different economy is one of the questions I would like to see more answers to. Simply pulling the rug out from under people and simplifying their lives for their own good is not an answer I'm happy with. Preaching to people to simply their lives without giving any suggestions about how they will now support themselves is not helpful, in my opinion.

How does the single mom working two or three minimum-wage jobs to raise her kids "simplify" her life?
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Sixstrings » Sun 10 Oct 2010, 17:37:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')nd where is Sixstrings in the 500K jobless claims thread? Interesting he hasn't re-appeared in his own thread now that the number's gone down. Curious.


Fair point.

Although just seems like you avoid the bigger issue threads. For instance.. how do you feel about the moral hazard of Federal Reserve printing press money juicing up the stock market? Isn't that anathema to what market capitalism is supposed to be about?

And more pertinent to this thread.. from what I can remember, your idea of a "sideways recovery" was basically just saying job numbers will be bad for a few years but not any worse. Hardly a groundbreaking prediction there, and makes you sound more like "doomer lite" than "cornucopian."

Can you be any more specific, do you agree with the experts that AT BEST we'll get back to normal level of employment in 2020?
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby copious.abundance » Sun 10 Oct 2010, 23:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')lthough just seems like you avoid the bigger issue threads. For instance.. how do you feel about the moral hazard of Federal Reserve printing press money juicing up the stock market? Isn't that anathema to what market capitalism is supposed to be about?

I'm not sure where you get the idea that I avoid the "bigger issue" threads - that depends on what your definition of a "bigger issue" is.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I do not subscribe to the idea that the US government (including the Federal Reserve) can really influence anything over the long term. If in fact the Federal Reserve's QE is pumping up the stock market, and if in fact their doing so would be counter to what the stock market would have done otherwise, then the game can only go on for so long, and at some point they won't be able to keep it up, and it'll crash back down.

On the other hand, maybe the stock market would have gone up anyway and QE is merely reinforcing what would have happened without their actions. In that case, whenever the Fed decides to back down from QE (which will happen at some point), then it should have little effect on the stock market.

And the third alternative is that the Fed's QE is having little or no effect on the markets. The only way to know any of this stuff would be to transfer to an alternate timeline in another dimension. So, sans a time machine we can only guess at what would have happened otherwise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd more pertinent to this thread.. from what I can remember, your idea of a "sideways recovery" was basically just saying job numbers will be bad for a few years but not any worse. Hardly a groundbreaking prediction there, and makes you sound more like "doomer lite" than "cornucopian."

Can you be any more specific, do you agree with the experts that AT BEST we'll get back to normal level of employment in 2020?

As I've pointed out to you before, my "sideways" claim was very specific about initial unemployment claims. I did not make the claim about anything else. It was not about job numbers, the unemployment rate, GDP or anything else. It was specifically about initial unemployment claims. If you do not know the difference between these things, please do a bit of research before putting words into people's mouths. Thank you.

As for the "experts," the "experts" haven't the slightest idea how long it will take to recover the jobs lost in the recession. Not a clue. You also don't have a clue, and neither do I. Once again we would need a time machine to really "know" these things. The recovery of jobs could look like the chart you posted on page 1 . . . or it could end up looking like either the yellow, blue or green lines I've drawn here. Nobody knows. Anyone who thinks they *do* know is fooling themselves.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Cog » Mon 11 Oct 2010, 18:14:39

I'm really very surprised at you Ludi. I know you have some sort of dream about confiscating all the wealth of this country and re-distributing to those who haven't made much of themselves but its really not going to happen. You would be better advised to start worrying about your personal survival plan and let the die-off happen as it must.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Pops » Tue 12 Oct 2010, 19:15:58

I don't have a good substitute for our cheap-oil-based economy, nobody else does either. I'm going to guess that's the reason peak oil is a concern.

Here are a couple of things off the top of my head I guess might happen a a result of Newjobs (no jobs in oldspeak)

Fewer, larger households.
Fewer, smaller transportation modes.
Larger, denser cities, sparser (still) countryside.
Fewer choices in all manufactured things.
Fewer January tomatoes, more TV Happy Trays® (pre-cooked, pre-salted, pre-HFCSed, mystery food just like moma used to buy at McDonalds now in self-warming single serving (3lb and 6lb) trays at your corner WalMart.)

Food will be cheap (and Multi-Hued!) entertainment will be cheap

I'm pretty sure we aren't going to do anything about inequality. The big money might evaporate if the banks are ever forced to admit how much their assets are worth in the real world or some other fluke but I wouldn't bet on it. Eventually most wealth will not be in 1s & 0s, it'll be in physical things, land, factories, etc.

We'll find things to do but they won't be "new" jobs, we might gain some jobs but they'll be more of the old kind - maids quarters will make a comeback in modest homes is what I'm saying.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Ludi » Tue 12 Oct 2010, 19:25:35

You're some kinda cock-eyed optimist, Pops!

Cheap food, huh?

8O
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Pops » Tue 12 Oct 2010, 20:01:57

Cock-Eyed maybe! :lol:

Americans eat 110# of beef a year, figuring what we actually eat (no entrails, skin, bone) you could come up with up to 20# of corn to grow a pound of steak - that's over a ton of corn per person per year!

At 100 calories an ounce that's 3,000,000 calories - we're talking 8,767 calories a day! Just so we can have nicely marbled steaks (with white fat of course) - not so we can grow that much beef - we could do that on grass - just so we can have that white fat marbling.

I'm sure you know Ludi but most probably don't that finishing cattle on corn didn't really get going till the 1960s with super cheap grain (fertilizers) antibiotics - and consumers with the bucks to pay. Before that cattle were finished on grass, beef wasn't as marbled and the fat was kinda yellow from all that nasty carotene.

So my point of course is that just like carpooling with a neighbor would reduce our transportation by a large amount, we have a long way to go before we starve.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Ludi » Tue 12 Oct 2010, 20:18:06

We may have a long way to go before we starve but that doesn't mean food will be cheap. There's plenty of food on the planet but 1 billion people are starving. Because they're poor.

:(

I guess you're expecting some kind of price control on US grown food? Seems like with the current global economy, food might end up going to the highest bidder, which might not be me or you.

:(
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 12 Oct 2010, 20:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')e may have a long way to go before we starve but that doesn't mean food will be cheap. There's plenty of food on the planet but 1 billion people are starving. Because they're poor.

:(

I guess you're expecting some kind of price control on US grown food? Seems like with the current global economy, food might end up going to the highest bidder, which might not be me or you.

:(


All that means is I buy a few less pricy electronic gadgets per year. But I'll continue dining in glorious splendor on Wagyu beef and succulent pork chops.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Pops » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 08:34:10

Yea, I didn't make my point very well, I didn't mean food will be cheaper necessarily, I meant we'll eat cheaper food. Less escarole and more iceberg, fewer fillets and more franks!

Wiki says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Western pattern diet, also called Western dietary pattern or the meat-sweet diet, is a dietary habit chosen by many people in developed countries, and increasingly in developing countries.[1] It is characterized by high intakes of red meat, sugary desserts, high-fat foods, and refined grains.[2] It also typically contains high-fat dairy products, high-sugar drinks, and eggs.[3]


All that stuff is more expensive than pinto beans and cornbread, and we were talking about how people will get by without work. If Gram is home instead of at the office she'll be boiling up a pot of beans for the extended family.

Why do kids leave home? Of course they want to be independent and get out from under the old man's thumb but many times they are moving across town or the country to get that great job. This will continue of course - especially for kids with a good education, but more and more I think they'll be forced to stay closer because the great jobs aren't there.

We've talked about this to no end, between the movement of capital to cheap labor and the continuing automation of everything, it seems inevitable that we're going to need to support ourselves selling each other foreign-made stuff, fixing each others roofs and doing each other's dry cleaning.

America's skyline is no longer smokestacks - it's strip malls.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Ludi » Wed 13 Oct 2010, 09:23:46

Those of us who already don't eat "high intakes of red meat, sugary desserts, high-fat foods, and refined grains, high-fat dairy products, high-sugar drinks" will eat squirrels, I guess. :(
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby jdmartin » Fri 15 Oct 2010, 10:20:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')all this excess could have been put to better use by equalizing the standard of living for everyone and concentrating on making better people, rather then better consumers.



That's true, but those things represent jobs for people now. If you're going to be preaching simplicity to people, you have to be able to tell them how you expect them to make a living once you take the complications out of our society, complications which represent our way of life. I'm not part of the "American lifestyle is non-negotiable" crowd but neither am I of the opinion that it is appropriate to tell people who are hanging by a thread that they need to simplify their lives and that they have plenty of security because they aren't being attacked and eaten by their neighbors (or whatever vision you might entertain about what "less security" might be).

What do you expect people to do for a living if they can't get a job which will pay for their food, housing, medical care, etc? I don't know what income strata you used to be in before you simplified your life, but I'm guessing it was not an average income, and I'm seriously doubting it was a lower-middle class income or poor income. Like I say, it is very easy for someone with more than they need to tell other people to simplify their lives. To say we have too much junk in our lives is true but it is also extremely trite. Our economy is based on junk, take out the junk and we have no economy. What do you propose to replace it with? I have not seen any Tea Party, Republican, or Democrat forward any suggestions about what we should replace our economy with if we're going to do away with the excess. What are YOUR suggestions?

I think it would be great if we could get the junk out of our lives, but I also recognize that other people besides myself depend on that junk for their livelihood. The question of HOW do we transition to a different economy is one of the questions I would like to see more answers to. Simply pulling the rug out from under people and simplifying their lives for their own good is not an answer I'm happy with. Preaching to people to simply their lives without giving any suggestions about how they will now support themselves is not helpful, in my opinion.

How does the single mom working two or three minimum-wage jobs to raise her kids "simplify" her life?


Beautiful post, and the same point of reasoning I've been levying for years here: all that waste is someone's job. People can get self-righteous and exclaim how people don't need to be buying TV sets on credit cards, or cashing out on their house to take a vacation, but those TVs and vacations helped pay the salary on my job in some fashion. We're all connected, and the reason the frugal can live frugal is because others are living high on the hog. If *everyone* simplified, the economy would collapse, and none of us would have jobs.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby The_Toecutter » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 00:37:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'B')eautiful post, and the same point of reasoning I've been levying for years here: all that waste is someone's job. People can get self-righteous and exclaim how people don't need to be buying TV sets on credit cards, or cashing out on their house to take a vacation, but those TVs and vacations helped pay the salary on my job in some fashion. We're all connected, and the reason the frugal can live frugal is because others are living high on the hog. If *everyone* simplified, the economy would collapse, and none of us would have jobs.


The alternative was for the productivity gains to be shared; I remember reading articles from Popular Science and other magazines from the 1960s and 1970s, saying that by the year 2000, we will only need to work 5-10 hours a week for the same living standard, due to all of the extra productivity.

Since 1970s, productivity per capita has more than doubled, yet annual incomes adjusted for inflation have declined and working hours for the same living standard have increased(especially now with 2 parents working to support a family). All of the extra gains went to a few already rich, and made them filthy rich.

Perhaps all of these people wouldn't be destitute, if they were paid 40-hour a week salaries, and only had to work 20 hours a week. There would be enough jobs to go around for everyone. And the money actually exists to do it, if you cut shareholder profit, cut tax burdens on the working and middle classes to zero, and cut excessive pay to upper management.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby MarkJ » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 08:10:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o what are the 99'ers supposed to do; 99 weeks does not last until 2020.


Nearly all the 99ers we know didn't start seriously looking for work until their benefits ran out. Many were still hoping for future extensions during their last few weeks.

Once their benefits ran out, most found a job or two shortly after.

When their benefits run out, locals can always browse Craiglist, HotJobs, local papers and apply at numerous businesses.

Craigslist - http://albany.craigslist.org/jjj/

Saratogian Hot Jobs - http://tinyurl.com/2432k8h

Of course many jobs are found through human networking, so let everyone know you're seriously looking for work.

New hire washout rate and turnover is high at many jobs, so they're always hiring.

Job seekers may be competing with numerous other job seekers for jobs, but when you weed out those with no education, no skills, no experience, no transportation, poor work ethic, poor learning ability and those that can't pass background checks, drug screening, DMV checks, aptitude tests, probationary periods etc, they may be one of a few qualified job applicants.
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Pops » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 08:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', ' ')We're all connected, and the reason the frugal can live frugal is because others are living high on the hog. If *everyone* simplified, the economy would collapse, and none of us would have jobs.

Greed is good, it enables frugality... Thats the best justification I've heard yet for keeping the status quo.

How about these:

If I didn't drive a Hummer there wouldn't be enough gas tax to keep the roads paved for electric cars.

I run my a/c 2/7 because trees need the CO2 from my coal-fired power plant.

They hate us for our freedom - go shopping!
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Plantagenet » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 10:04:09

Just last week Obama boasted that "Summers did a heckuva job with the economy."

Does Obama even have a clue about what is going on with the economy? How utterly clueless can Obama be?
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Re: No jobs recover until 2020 at best, another 95k lost in

Postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 03 Nov 2010, 10:37:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'J')ust last week Obama boasted that "Summers did a heckuva job with the economy."


What ... did you actually expect Obama to tell the truth and say "Summers did a horrendously pathetic job with the economy. We're screwed, folks. Totally, completely, and utterly screwed. My administration has proven to be as incompetent as the democrats in Congress. We've been a disaster. ... Ease up on the swearing, please. Pops
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