by copious.abundance » Sun 10 Oct 2010, 23:05:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')lthough just seems like you avoid the bigger issue threads. For instance.. how do you feel about the moral hazard of Federal Reserve printing press money juicing up the stock market? Isn't that anathema to what market capitalism is supposed to be about?
I'm not sure where you get the idea that I avoid the "bigger issue" threads - that depends on what your definition of a "bigger issue" is.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I do not subscribe to the idea that the US government (including the Federal Reserve) can really influence anything over the long term. If in fact the Federal Reserve's QE is pumping up the stock market, and if in fact their doing so would be counter to what the stock market would have done otherwise, then the game can only go on for so long, and at some point they won't be able to keep it up, and it'll crash back down.
On the other hand, maybe the stock market would have gone up anyway and QE is merely reinforcing what would have happened without their actions. In that case, whenever the Fed decides to back down from QE (which
will happen at some point), then it should have little effect on the stock market.
And the third alternative is that the Fed's QE is having little or no effect on the markets. The only way to know any of this stuff would be to transfer to an alternate timeline in another dimension. So, sans a time machine we can only guess at what would have happened otherwise.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd more pertinent to this thread.. from what I can remember, your idea of a "sideways recovery" was basically just saying job numbers will be bad for a few years but not any worse. Hardly a groundbreaking prediction there, and makes you sound more like "doomer lite" than "cornucopian."
Can you be any more specific, do you agree with the experts that AT BEST we'll get back to normal level of employment in 2020?
. I did not make the claim about anything else. It was not about job numbers, the unemployment rate, GDP or anything else. It was specifically about
. If you do not know the difference between these things, please do a bit of research before putting words into people's mouths. Thank you.
As for the "experts," the "experts" haven't the slightest idea how long it will take to recover the jobs lost in the recession. Not a clue. You also don't have a clue, and neither do I. Once again we would need a time machine to really "know" these things. The recovery of jobs could look like the chart you posted on page 1 . . . or it could end up looking like either the yellow, blue or green lines I've drawn here. Nobody knows. Anyone who thinks they *do* know is fooling themselves.