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Main Doomer Fallacy

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby BigTex » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 17:59:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
I'm thinking more along the lines of having too much cleverness and not enough wisdom.

Sort of like the inmate who is smart enough to escape from prison but not smart enough to stay out of prison in the first place.



Humans seemed to do pretty well for 100,000 years or so. At what point did human cleverness change to make us as a species so incapable of being wise, in your opinion? And if humans as a species became too clever to manage, how can you account for groups of humans such as the Tikopians?


I would say the inflection point was probably when we stopped living as part of a natural ecosystem and started living in an artificial world based upon fossil fuel-derived values and delusions.

It's not that humans are too clever to manage; rather, the cleverness does not seem to be positioning us well for long term survival.

I may be wrong and our cleverness may be leading us to a glorious future, but every time I watch that video of Dr. Bartlett discussing the exponential function I wish that more people would think in more general terms about the various trendlines that will determine our future. It seems to me that thinking in those terms might provide some useful leverage of our high intelligence.
:)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Newfie » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 18:05:56

Only skimmed through it all but I like the way you are thinking BigTex.

I think there might be a way for us to confer some advantage to our off spring, but I don't have the time to fiddle with the idea right now. Maybe next week.

Cheers.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby BigTex » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 18:10:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') can't agree with your (apparent) proposition that civilization is humans' ultimate destiny.


I have no idea what our ultimate destiny will be. As a member of this species, I would like to see it continue in some sort of resilient configuration. Perhaps it won't be civilization. I don't know if you are talking about turning away from civilization because people decide it is empty and meaningless or because they are too hungry to worry about keeping up past traditions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd because we're getting into this kind of philosophical discussion, not based on anthropology, I will drop out of it and leave you to your destiny. :)


I'm not sure what the significance is of calling this discussion philosophical or anthropological, but that's cool.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby americandream » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 18:57:49

It depends on what he means by "civilisation". Generally, it merely signifies the rise of civil society, in which norms are prescribed to ensure certain basic standards affording all of us a certain degree of security during our brief forays on earth.

One can then add the economic element to said order at which point we would have a communal or capitalist civilisation, or a fuedual one (such as Islam where summary punishment which we view as anathema from our liberal capitalist orders, coexists with the service of civil needs). Likewise in our liberal capitalist orders, a singular case of widespread amnesia sits comfortably with our sense of civil order even whilst we rampage across the world resourcing our appetite.

So as you see, the term "civilisation" is a tricky one in as much as we can be "civilised" yet bear certain attributes of the barbarian. So to that extent, I agree that the "civilisation" project is a WIP as we are increasingly compelled by the consequences of these contradictions (with for example, the (guaranteed) rise in poverty in the Islamic world and the West, both resting as they do on illogical practices). The alternative of course, is species extinction but I suspect the genetic imperative to survive is a great inventor of adaptation.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') can't agree with your (apparent) proposition that civilization is humans' ultimate destiny.

Remember that until a few hundred years ago the minority of human cultures had been civilizations. "Humans" as a species did not invent civilization, just a few groups did. The rest lived other ways.

And because we're getting into this kind of philosophical discussion, not based on anthropology, I will drop out of it and leave you to your destiny. :)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Nano » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 19:45:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') think it' s rather simple. There are now too many of us and we eat and crap too much. That wouldn't be so much of a problem if our genes didn't desperately want us to procreate, and our endocrine system and anatomy weren't so ready to oblige. :?


We try to maintain a balance of power between the poor and the rich through dialogue. We communicate with words or weapons. Lets see if we can't stick to words for the next 50 years. I'm all for it.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 20:56:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')t depends on what he means by "civilisation". Generally, it merely signifies the rise of civil society, in which norms are prescribed to ensure certain basic standards affording all of us a certain degree of security during our brief forays on earth.


You're right, people use their own definitions for words. So I should clarify which definition I have always used here on PO.com.

Primary Criteria

1. Settlement of cities of 5,000 or more people.
2. Full-time labor specialization.
3. Concentration of surplus.
4. Class structure.
5. State-level political organization.

Secondary Criteria

6. Monumental architecture
7. Long-distance trade
8. Sophisticated art
9. Writing
10. Predictive sciences (math, astronomy, etc.)

http://tobyspeople.com/anthropik/2005/0 ... ilization/

I simply don't debate about civilization/non-civilization anymore, which is why I'm bowing out of this conversation. Just want to clarify what I was actually talking about. :)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby americandream » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 22:27:44

That sounds suspiciously like a civil society designed to serve the wants of a few. Is that a civilisation? On the spectrum of what constitutes civil society from the rudimentary communes of our caveman ancestors with their consistent rituals back to more contemporary communes with their consistent rules, I would concede that a civil order, along the way, and devoted to the wants of a few is a form of civilisation operating at some rudimentary level of commonality.

But yes, I can see your misgivings.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby BigTex » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 01:16:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') simply don't debate about civilization/non-civilization anymore, which is why I'm bowing out of this conversation. Just want to clarify what I was actually talking about. :)


There's no debate about the meaning of civilization. All I am saying is that humanity has clearly followed a general arc of increasing complexity as it has moved through time (subject to resource availability, of course). This increase in complexity more or less tracks the abilities of the humans who were most adept at surviving and reproducing.

The question is where this overall trend of increasing outward complexity as a reflection of our inner mental horsepower is leading us. It may be leading us toward a simple village life with a smaller population and environmental footprint, or it might be something less pleasant.

I don't know. I'm just trying to sort it all out like the rest of you.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby americandream » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 01:55:57

Read "The Plague Species" by Reg Morrison. An extremely thought provoking, refreshingly non-anthropocentric look at our achievements and the role played by DNA in all of this, including our propensity to be mystic. The whole civilisational project of humankind is placed in some context, one which conforms to my view that externalities will once again compel an about face in human development, one we can only but catch glimpses of.

Morrison of course posits the intriguing theory that we are in an inescapable descent into the plague stage, a process apparently fundamental to DNA evolution through the ages. A sort of carrying medium in a necessary terminal mode.

Good read for those interested in more mundane takes on the human animal (as opposed to ones that revolve around being chosen, alien or somehow otherwise special).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') simply don't debate about civilization/non-civilization anymore, which is why I'm bowing out of this conversation. Just want to clarify what I was actually talking about. :)


There's no debate about the meaning of civilization. All I am saying is that humanity has clearly followed a general arc of increasing complexity as it has moved through time (subject to resource availability, of course). This increase in complexity more or less tracks the abilities of the humans who were most adept at surviving and reproducing.

The question is where this overall trend of increasing outward complexity as a reflection of our inner mental horsepower is leading us. It may be leading us toward a simple village life with a smaller population and environmental footprint, or it might be something less pleasant.

I don't know. I'm just trying to sort it all out like the rest of you.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ibon » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 12:14:55

If I look deeply into the rhythms and tides of human cultural evolution I can allow myself the indulgence to imagine a world that follows after the technological trajectory runs its course and the consequences purge us of our arrogance that we can ultimately conquer and control our mother planet. That consequences of biblical proportions will tame and humble this insatiable dominance and that submission to work within the ecological principals of our mother planet will be a submission of reverence and not defeat. That our technologies will be directed toward stewardship of our planet where we find ourselves as humans in a more balanced brotherhood with our fellow creatures with whom we share this planet.

However short we may ever reach as a species to these idealized goals I nevertheless hold onto this spiritual trajectory for our species cultural evolution. For me all the destabilizing events and consequences that I see on the short term horizon are all really just teachers and guide posts toward this more enlightened place.

Some may claim that this is all delusional and only an imagined world to retreat to in your mind because history reveals the raw truth of our human hubris which will in the end only do us in. That sentiment for me is THE MAIN DOOMER FALLACY.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 12:45:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'S')ome may claim that this is all delusional and only an imagined world to retreat to in your mind because history reveals the raw truth of our human hubris which will in the end only do us in. That sentiment for me is THE MAIN DOOMER FALLACY.


It's just more Man is separate from Nature BS.

Gaia created the human "virus". Get it over it.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 13:19:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Gaia created the human "virus". Get it over it.
I don't believe you read what Ibon said. Or if you did, then you obviously don't understand it.


Count me in then. Existential wanderings can be hard to understand without the appropriate frame of reference.

Raw truth of human hubris?

Well..okay....you mean...like its worked okay so far so lets keep doing it?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 13:49:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t is somewhat ironic that Carlhole attacks Malthuisan pessimists with a "red herring, a distraction. Their numbers are in decline because of people like Carlhole.


Stick a tampon in it and take a motrin. You'll feel better.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 14:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')bon was quite clear.


Not in the least.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')She reveals her optimism, that she can "imagine a world that follows after the technological trajectory runs its course" and that hopefully "man will to work within the ecological principals of our mother planet will be a submission of reverence and not defeat." It is a beautiful vision, one that I share.


Is that what it was? So the balanced brotherhood and veiled religious references weren't just another version of some born again Christians desire to impose their perspective on others? I mean seriously, it ventured awful close to a "peace, love dope" angle.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')It is somewhat ironic that Carlhole attacks Malthuisan pessimists with a "red herring, a distraction. Their numbers are in decline because of people like Carlhole.


So now you are saying that Carlhole eats alot of herring? How do you know this?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ibon » Sat 28 Aug 2010, 14:28:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')
Well..okay....you mean...like its worked okay so far so lets keep doing it?


I think the technological trajectory started from the first stone tool and will develop for as long as we remain a species on the planet. That part is what Ludi said makes us essentially human. So technology will never go away and we will just keep using it. The hubris, however unintended and unconscious in the beginnig, started when technology advanced to the point that we altered natural landscapes. Innocuous and well within carrying capacity early on it eventually led to the overshoot we experience today. One can argue whether it started with agriculture or when we set fire to grasslands but in any event technology led us to civilization which at some point in our cultural evolution caused a major cultural shift to happen in our heads......that we can manipulate and control, optimize, dominate and even replace natural ecosystems. In the beginning when we planted corn or wheat seeds we weren't consciously doing this it just was a consequence. At some point however we became conscious of our ability to dominate and control.

It is at this point that these discussions often drift into a debate about whether civilization was a mistake and inherently unsustainable and that our hunter gatherer tribal ancestors had it right and that we need to go back to this model since it is the only proven sustainable culture humans ever produced etc. etc . I have argued in the past that what happened happened and that you can't put humpty dumpty back together again so culturally the moment humans ate the apple of civilization and became sentient of their ability to dominate that this fall from hunter gatherer grace will now remain a part of our culture going forward even if we collapse back down to tribal cultures. For even then the ghosts of our ruins will stir the imagination of some clever future tribal idiot and we'll start the dominance game up all over again.

This all by default only leaves us one pathway out of extinction. To spiritually embrace the ideology espoused on my previous post. Applying our technology toward stewardship.

That still leaves a lot of room for technological innovation and a balanced ability to submit and yet direct our destiny simultaneously. Granted it may seem unimaginable with our current confused culture but don't forget those teachers and guide posts I mentioned. They are worse than nuns with rulers and are getting ready to slap you for your sins. Call them Gaia nuns.....

How many of us can recognize the collective spiritual yearning toward submission to the greater good of mother earth that is currently in the form of cultural embryos waiting to rise out of the ashes of our currently doomed cultural paradigm?

Xenophobe Wrote
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') So the balanced brotherhood and veiled religious references weren't just another version of some born again Christians desire to impose their perspective on others? I mean seriously, it ventured awful close to a "peace, love dope" angle.


Ask yourself a moment who will do the imposing? Or better yet where the imposition will come from?
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