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Main Doomer Fallacy

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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby eastbay » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 00:37:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


I can think of one right now, but there are undoubtedly others:

* Public assistance. It offers powerful financial rewards (food, shelter, clothing, transportation, etc...) to those who under-perform academically and over-breed.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 02:14:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


I can think of one right now, but there are undoubtedly others:

* Public assistance. It offers powerful financial rewards (food, shelter, clothing, transportation, etc...) to those who under-perform academically and over-breed.

And you are calling yourself commie?

Any good commie should call for more and more public assistance, until all available money are spent.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 07:29:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


I can think of one right now, but there are undoubtedly others:

* Public assistance. It offers powerful financial rewards (food, shelter, clothing, transportation, etc...) to those who under-perform academically and over-breed.



10,000 years of public assistance ought to reduce the brain size a tad. Think we can afford it?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Newfie » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 07:41:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


I can think of one right now, but there are undoubtedly others:

* Public assistance. It offers powerful financial rewards (food, shelter, clothing, transportation, etc...) to those who under-perform academically and over-breed.



10,000 years of public assistance ought to reduce the brain size a tad. Think we can afford it?


Jared Diamond seems to think that Westerners are not as intelligent as tribesmen because the pressure to survive, and thus the evolutionary pressures, have been reduced. You have to read him carefully to see where he says it, but it is there in "Guns, Germs, and Steel."
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 07:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Jared Diamond seems to think that Westerners are not as intelligent as tribesmen because the pressure to survive, and thus the evolutionary pressures, have been reduced. You have to read him carefully to see where he says it, but it is there in "Guns, Germs, and Steel."


The concept as I've seen it is not that "Westerners" are less intelligent, but that civilized people are less intelligent than non-civilized. Also seen it mentioned as domestic dogs being less intelligent than wolves, for the same reasons.

But I think it would be easy to show if civilized people have smaller brains than non-civilized ones. There's evidence that until modern times civilized people tended to have smaller, weaker bodies than non-civilized people, because of poor diet.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ibon » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 13:22:51

I enjoyed reading the responses to my question. I sincerely believe that as we have externalized our survival to technology and our modern civilization we have indeed disrupted at least our cultural and perhaps eventually our genetic evolution that was being driven by our ability to innovate. As Ludi mentions this an essential component of being human.

So it is more than rhetoric this dumming down of our culture. It is perhaps naive to simply blame this though on corporations, media, conspiracies by the elite etc. Taking survival out of the equation makes black bears pretty stupid also that just hang around town dumps for their food instead of foraging and mapping out their territories for salmon, blueberries etc. So I would venture to say that technology and our ability to exploit huge energy resources has had a dummning down affect as this takes the survival element out of the picture.

I would say though that what we have in the past 100 years is an anomoly and if we believe in the severity of consequences coming upon us this century than we can expect the catalyst of survival to get us back on track of selecting once again for intelligence and innovation. Right or wrong?
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 13:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'w')e can expect the catalyst of survival to get us back on track of selecting once again for intelligence and innovation. Right or wrong?



I believe it will, more than ever, because most of us won't have traditional useful knowledge available. Traditional methods of growing food and techniques of hunting and foraging are lost in one generation. Most of us in the developed world are more than one generation removed from traditional useful knowledge. What we know of as "traditional" is driving to the store to buy stuff. Everything will have to be relearned and innovated, because even those with traditional knowledge available to them might not be able to apply it in a world with rapidly changing climate, drastically reduced natural resources, etc. The folks who survive will the clever innovator types who are able to see things in different ways. They will probably also need to be socially intelligent (good at getting along with others) as well as clever and handy, able to make and fix things. Our modern life has raised many of us to be socially immature and completely unhandy. I think this will get weeded out pretty fast.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby lper100km » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 14:37:19

The question of knowledge preservation is imo, one of the key issues to be faced in the doomer scenario. As Ludi has pointed out, vast numbers of city dwellers have no concept of growing crops or raising livestock. They have had no need of this for several generations. Survival skills now mean little more than sussing out the specials and poking your shopping cart in front of the next person.

Enter the industrial and technological ages. What will happen to all this 200 years of accumulated knowledge? Can it be preserved when power supplies become uncertain and civil society becomes unruly? If it is preserved, can it be accessed? Will education remain a priority or will it suffer irreparable damage? Even if knowledge can be preserved, will it be intelligible after several generations of societal disruption? Will essential knowledge be simply no more than can be passed on by word of mouth? Will superstition and religions fill the mental space where logical thought and science was once paramount?

Knowledge is more powerful than any other factor in preserving humanity from a descent into Olduvai. Potentially, we’re not much more than a generation away from losing it.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 14:42:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 't')he mental space where logical thought and science was once paramount?



I have my doubts that the average mind has more than a tenuous acquaintance with logical thought and science. :(
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby lper100km » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 15:23:59

That's the problem with generalisations - they're too easily challenged.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Newfie » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 18:46:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 't')he mental space where logical thought and science was once paramount?


I have my doubts that the average mind has more than a tenuous acquaintance with logical thought and science. :(


I agreed, except for you and me, and I ain't so sure about you.

Some folks have done research on bird flocks and fish schools. Although they are made up of many individuals the individuals can communicate with astounding speed, the whole group then acts as one, and it has it's own intelligence. The group may not be as "smart" as any individual, but it makes its own survival decisions and will sacrifice individuals for the greater good.

I suspect that something similar is going on in humans, we have become a flock, school, herd. And we react as such. These reactions can be very, very difficult to resist. I know that I see and feel their threads in my own psyche.

The point is that, no matter how intelligent you or I are, we are part of a larger group that has it's own agenda. Unfortunately that larger group think has evolved in prehistoric times and has never had to face today's kind of challenges.

It is possible to ascribe humanities failure to deal with our over population and all the flow down issues as a failure to think beyond the immediate future. It is perfectly logical that we don't have that capacity, there was never a need for it. Now we need it, but don't have it.

Therefore, humanity is dummer than dirt when it comes to long term, strategic thinking. Statistically speaking of the group of course. Not talking about you and me, and I ain't so sure about me.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Carlhole » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 19:09:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '.')..humanity is dummer than dirt...

:wink:
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 19:22:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')It is possible to ascribe humanities failure to deal with our over population and all the flow down issues as a failure to think beyond the immediate future. It is perfectly logical that we don't have that capacity, there was never a need for it.



Perfectly logical but inaccurate. There have been groups who faced the issue of over-population and dealt with it. See Jared Diamond's "Collapse" and discussion of the island of Tikopia.

There is evidence humanity does have the capacity to deal with over-population, because humans have dealt with this issue in the past. The capacity exists.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby BigTex » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 21:39:06

I don't know exactly how this fits into the "getting dumber" discussion, but it seems to me that we are diverting more and more of the intelligent people to the task of trying to outsmart other intelligent people (e.g., spies in the old USSR, lawyers in industrialized economies, and more recently financial wizards on Wall Street), rather than in trying to make real advances in knowledge (scientists, engineers, tinkering inventors, etc.).

I think the example of the bear developing the ability to scavenge for food in dumpsters and garbage cans rather than in functioning well in his natural habitat is a great illustration of how the modern world can reduce an impressive creature to a pathetic state. Every time I go to a zoo, I get depressed, especially when I see the primates. They always have this look on their faces like "this sucks."

Perhaps it is simply evidence of the old trick of one group of humans acting as predators with respect to another weaker group of humans. After all (to paraphrase Orwell), human are at the top of the food chain, but some humans are closer to the top than others.

As I recall, Catton referred to modern humanity as a new species he called "homo colossus" because we had supplemented our evolutionary improvements with dramatic industrial accessories that allowed us to make adaptive changes to our environment that would have otherwise taken millions of years.

If anything, we may be getting smarter, but in a pathological way. Things like building an economy that is premised on a level of continuing and perpetual expansion that is comically unsustainable.

I suppose, though, that we evolved to take care of our individual, family and tribal needs as they currently exist. Evolution apparently didn't select for those who could identify and solve inter-generational problems with long lead times.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby sparky » Thu 26 Aug 2010, 02:59:40

.
science and technology can only survive by being used ,
a lot of knowledge in some data base is quickly esoteric
read " Canticle for Leibowitz" in which a religious order keep some broken knowledge of technology
but worry about the scroll-work more than about the content
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ludi » Thu 26 Aug 2010, 09:45:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')Evolution apparently didn't select for those who could identify and solve inter-generational problems with long lead times.


Sure it did, otherwise we couldn't be having this conversation. Here on this board, and in many other places, there are large numbers of people who are identifying and working on solutions to inter-generational problems. If we didn't arrive here through evolution, how did we get here? Even if we're a minority and mutants, we still got here through evolution. And again, other cultures had ethics which reflected an ability to identify and solve problems - the "7th Generation" ethic of the Iroquois, the population management practices of the Tikopians, and other examples not on the tip of my brain (you can read about them in books). Our culture may suppress the ability to identify and solve long-term problems, but that doesn't mean the ability is lacking in humans themselves, in my opinion.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ibon » Thu 26 Aug 2010, 16:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Therefore, humanity is dummer than dirt when it comes to long term, strategic thinking. Statistically speaking of the group of course. Not talking about you and me, and I ain't so sure about me.


We look stupid because we brought ourselves to the doorstep of collective collapse. But this is more ignorance than stupidity. This is important to distinguish. As a species we are ignorant about long term strategic thinking to mitigate overshoot. Ignorant because on the scale of civilization we are only now confronted with this issue as a novel problem. Our religions, morals, economics, governance, taboos and cultural norms never before had to deal with this. We do demonstrate the intelligence when it comes to managing complex systems when it comes to production and distribution but we just haven't yet had to apply this as a set of cultural and moral rules that set limits to our freedoms around consumption and breeding within carrying capacity.

Ignorance will see the light of day as consequences unfold. Our collective response will only then answer the question if we really are hard wired to remain dumber than dirt in adapting cultural responses to overshoot.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Newfie » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 08:38:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')It is possible to ascribe humanities failure to deal with our over population and all the flow down issues as a failure to think beyond the immediate future. It is perfectly logical that we don't have that capacity, there was never a need for it.



Perfectly logical but inaccurate. There have been groups who faced the issue of over-population and dealt with it. See Jared Diamond's "Collapse" and discussion of the island of Tikopia.

There is evidence humanity does have the capacity to deal with over-population, because humans have dealt with this issue in the past. The capacity exists.


Ludi, of course your example is true. But it is an outlier, an exception. Statistically speaking the vast number of human groups who have existed do NOT have this capability. It MAY be within our reach but if it is it is not cultivated. Thus it is a failure for the species in general.

I think you agree that humanity, as it now exists and most commonly expresses itself, has not dealt well with the issue.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Newfie » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 08:59:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Therefore, humanity is dummer than dirt when it comes to long term, strategic thinking. Statistically speaking of the group of course. Not talking about you and me, and I ain't so sure about me.


We look stupid because we brought ourselves to the doorstep of collective collapse. But this is more ignorance than stupidity. This is important to distinguish. As a species we are ignorant about long term strategic thinking to mitigate overshoot. Ignorant because on the scale of civilization we are only now confronted with this issue as a novel problem. Our religions, morals, economics, governance, taboos and cultural norms never before had to deal with this. We do demonstrate the intelligence when it comes to managing complex systems when it comes to production and distribution but we just haven't yet had to apply this as a set of cultural and moral rules that set limits to our freedoms around consumption and breeding within carrying capacity.

Ignorance will see the light of day as consequences unfold. Our collective response will only then answer the question if we really are hard wired to remain dumber than dirt in adapting cultural responses to overshoot.


Perhaps, provided humanity survives the bottle neck, and I'm not taking bets on either side of that.

But the point you make may be important. I think it is difficult for Nature to do natural selection based upon long term planning ability. But let's assume that there is some mechanism that positively selects for long term thinking and planning and that some of our species will slide through to the other side.

That being the case it is fundamental that the long term thinkers have children, obviously because without genetic material to go forward there can be no selection. Also, in order to make the cut, we have to actually do something that increases the chance of our children surviving to have kids of their own over other kids. The metaphor (tired though it may be) is the Titanic, there are not enough lifeboats to go around (thus selection) so we need to put our kids on the available boats, and hope they survive.

Of course our situation is complicated, our life boats are not (to my eyes) painted with great big letters. We have had not drills, the captain(s) is asleep or making off in their own delux skiff.

Perhaps a great deal of the value of this board and similar sites is to provide a place for those who may have the genetic "right stuff" is to find a place to brain storm through the times to come and develop survival strategies just so that we can evolve into something more thoughtful and sustainable.

But there is no guarantee. Nature does not select the "best." Nature only selects for those best adapted to the current environment. We need to thread a tight needle here. We have to figure out how to survive TODAY, TOMORROW, and what comes next. And do it better than those who are best adapted for TODAY alone, and do that every day for generations.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Postby Ibon » Fri 27 Aug 2010, 11:56:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')But there is no guarantee. Nature does not select the "best." Nature only selects for those best adapted to the current environment. We need to thread a tight needle here. We have to figure out how to survive TODAY, TOMORROW, and what comes next. And do it better than those who are best adapted for TODAY alone, and do that every day for generations.


Selection for dealing with complex systems will happen on the cultural "meme" level. Meme replication is free from the slow process of genetic modification. The evolution of cultural memes for dealing with overshoot will have the "opportunity" when consequences start to act as catalyzing agents but it will still all happen within the confines of our genetic wiring which will only undergo modification through deep time way beyond the scope of our current crisis to play any role.

For example the impulse to breed and have children is rooted deep in our genes not only the desire for sex but also the maternal nurturing impulse. For cultural memes to impose enough taboos and rules around this impulse to channel it only within carrying capacity the consequences will have to be severe enough as in the case of our tribal ancestors who buried a twin in an act of infanticide to better nurture the remaining offspring.

This tug of war between our genes and memes acted upon from the catalysts of consequences this century will be volatile. But movement happens during stress. Even our biological evolution hasn't been steady slow and linear but rather punctuated by periods of more rapid modification.

The infanticide of a twin happened with nomadic cultures in bio regions where carrying capacity constraints (consequences) selected for this meme. In other words the limits of the bioregion determined the cultural response.

What we are being called upon to do, which is perhaps beyond the capability of cultural memes, is to move within carrying capacity willfully before this becomes determined by external limits. Setting limits culturally before the external limits impose themselves fully. In other words before we degrade our biosphere to the point where we can no longer steer our destiny culturally but rather are driven by external limits.

The paradox is that we need the consequences of a weakening biosphere (for humans that is) in order for cultural memes to have the power to eclipse our genetic predispositions.

By the way I do not believe in any notion that the upcoming crisis has to weed out the genetic weak so that only those with the "right stuff" carry forward. Of course some selection will occur in terms of disease resistance etc. but again the "right stuff" in terms of managing ourselves within carrying capacity will be a complex set of cultural memes and not some weeding out of genetically less fit. Did Americans become disproportionately obese because of some genetic anomaly unique to people who immigrated to the US?

Culture is determinate not genetics for the next couple of hundred years.
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