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Main Doomer Fallacy

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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby diemos » Sun 22 Aug 2010, 16:51:21

Not only is our accumulated knowledge not going to disappear over night but our installed base of hydro and nuclear already provides 15% of our primary energy and represents a minimum that we're unlikely to lose. I think a complete return to the 17th century is unlikely.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 22 Aug 2010, 20:29:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'N')ot only is our accumulated knowledge not going to disappear over night but our installed base of hydro and nuclear already provides 15% of our primary energy and represents a minimum that we're unlikely to lose. I think a complete return to the 17th century is unlikely.

I'm in general agreement with you on this but I place more faith in hydro and the already in place wind and biomass production then I do nuclear. The nuclear plants in the USA are all thirty years old or better and the government is not allowing or insisting on their timely replacement as they wear out.
Peak oil is a problem. The inability of our government to choose the best course of action to deal with peak oil is a HUGE PROBLEM!!!
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:53:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'N')ot only is our accumulated knowledge not going to disappear over night but our installed base of hydro and nuclear already provides 15% of our primary energy and represents a minimum that we're unlikely to lose. I think a complete return to the 17th century is unlikely.

Save some unpredictable consequences of climate change I also think that this is unlikely.

However I expect development where relatively few "islets" of surviving high-to-medium tech setups (say sparsely scattered surviving cities powered by nearby npp-s) will be surrounded by vast oceans of retardation and poverty.
These retarded areas may well enjoy 17th century life style.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 23 Aug 2010, 19:09:06

Hey, I just saw this article at New Scientist! It jibes with the subject at hand in this thread - that human beings' use of technology is fundamental to their nature and that it is unrealistic in the extreme to expect them to NOT seek sci/tech solutions to any problem, minor or major. This is what many doomers demand that people do - drop Science & Technology - and it is the main fallacy of doomer thought.

Artificial ape man: How technology created humans

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]NS: You begin your book The Artificial Ape by claiming that Darwin was wrong. In what way?

Darwin is one of my heroes, but I believe he was wrong in seeing human evolution as a result of the same processes that account for other evolution in the biological world - especially when it comes to the size of our cranium.

Darwin had to put large cranial size down to sexual selection, arguing that women found brainy men sexy. But biomechanical factors make this untenable. I call this the smart biped paradox: once you are an upright ape, all natural selection pressures should be in favour of retaining a small cranium. That's because walking upright means having a narrower pelvis, capping babies' head size, and a shorter digestive tract, making it harder to support big, energy-hungry brains. Clearly our big brains did evolve, but I think Darwin had the wrong mechanism. I believe it was technology. We were never fully biological entities. We are and always have been artificial apes...


The NS interviewer goes on to ask Taylor about Kurzweil's ideas on the Singularity.

Amazon

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') breakthrough theory that tools and technology are the real drivers of human evolution
Although humans are one of the great apes, along with chimpanzees, gorillas, and orangutans, we are remarkably different from them. Unlike our cousins who subsist on raw food, spend their days and nights outdoors, and wear a thick coat of hair, humans are entirely dependent on artificial things, such as clothing, shelter, and the use of tools, and would die in nature without them. Yet, despite our status as the weakest ape, we are the masters of this planet. Given these inherent deficits, how did humans come out on top?

In this fascinating new account of our origins, leading archaeologist Timothy Taylor proposes a new way of thinking about human evolution through our relationship with objects. Drawing on the latest fossil evidence, Taylor argues that at each step of our species’ development, humans made choices that caused us to assume greater control of our evolution. Our appropriation of objects allowed us to walk upright, lose our body hair, and grow significantly larger brains. As we push the frontiers of scientific technology, creating prosthetics, intelligent implants, and artificially modified genes, we continue a process that started in the prehistoric past, when we first began to extend our powers through objects.

Weaving together lively discussions of major discoveries of human skeletons and artifacts with a reexamination of Darwin’s theory of evolution, Taylor takes us on an exciting and challenging journey that begins to answer the fundamental question about our existence: what makes humans unique, and what does that mean for our future?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '7') of 8 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Powerful and profound, August 4, 2010
By Tina McMahon - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Artificial Ape: How Technology Changed the Course of Human Evolution (MacSci) (Hardcover)
Wow. This is a fascinating, lively and beautifully written book, and it's utterly persuasive. I could not stop reading it, and now that I have finished it I can't stop recommending it. The interweaving of anecdote, theory and scientific evidence is masterful, and he has something quite extraordinary to offer to the conversation about human evolution.


There you go, doomers. I can't resist... I gotta say it... SEE?!
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Vogelzang » Mon 23 Aug 2010, 19:42:29

My plans have always been to prepare for doom and let billions of fools die while I survive and have more of the earth's resources for myself at much lower prices.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby americandream » Mon 23 Aug 2010, 20:09:16

Not going to happen. You will either be applied to future wars for resources or some effort to minimise the worst effects of capitalist collapse.

As capitalists come under mounting pressure at the profit margins, they will increasingly socialise their losses, inculding using your labour at minimal or no cost being one measure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vogelzang', 'M')y plans have always been to prepare for doom and let billions of fools die while I survive and have more of the earth's resources for myself at much lower prices.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 02:43:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')ey, I just saw this article at New Scientist! It jibes with the subject at hand in this thread - that human beings' use of technology is fundamental to their nature and that it is unrealistic in the extreme to expect them to NOT seek sci/tech solutions to any problem, minor or major. This is what many doomers demand that people do - drop Science & Technology - and it is the main fallacy of doomer thought.

They will surely seek, however they are unlikely to find.

And even if they do find, it will be only temporary solution and with time passing even more substantial problems will crop out and stakes of the game will be risen... until they fail.

And if they seek long enough and find nothing useful , they will give up or alternatively they will be wasting time and effort to no avail.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 10:06:16

Dropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 10:38:57

If we drop technology, we cease to be humans.

I haven't seen anyone here advocate for that, except maybe the "humans should go extinct" crowd.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby davep » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 11:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


Have you not seen Idiocracy? :-D
What we think, we become.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 14:01:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?

If this dieoff of algae in oceans is confirmed we can expect gradual decrease of concentration of oxygen in air over coming thousands of years.

One of ways to adapt for it is to reduce size and capacity of brain, the most oxygen hungry part of body.
So here you have some credible evolutionary pressure which might deliver such result.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Tue 24 Aug 2010, 14:04:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby davep » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 14:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?

If this dieoff of algae in oceans us confirmed then we can expect gradual decrease of concentration of oxygen in air over coming thousands of years.

One of ways to adapt for it is to reduce size and capacity of brain, the most oxygen hungry part of body.
So here you have some credible evolutionary pressure which might deliver such result.


Couldn't we just breathe a little heavier?
What we think, we become.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 14:09:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Couldn't we just breathe a little heavier?

Surely for some time we are going to fight and develop larger lungs like for example Tibetans did.

However at some point this avenue will be closed.
At this point we will start to grow smaller brains as last resort struggle to survive.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby davep » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 14:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Couldn't we just breathe a little heavier?

Surely for some time we are going to fight and develop larger lungs like for example Tibetans did.

However at some point this avenue will be closed.
At this point we will start to grow smaller brains as last resort struggle to survive.


I don't know. It would take a fairly radical decrease in oxygen for that. In the meantime we will probably reduce in numbers and ability to modify the natural world using fossil fuels, thereby allowing more natural flora which would redress the oxygen balance. Maybe...
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Nano » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 15:03:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I') don't know. It would take a fairly radical decrease in oxygen for that. In the meantime we will probably reduce in numbers and ability to modify the natural world using fossil fuels, thereby allowing more natural flora which would redress the oxygen balance. Maybe...


If oxygen level goes from 21% to 19% humans start to notice the effect. It would start to pay to have access to supplementary oxygen.

One source: http://safetyservices.ucdavis.edu/progr ... ned-spaces
Last edited by Nano on Tue 24 Aug 2010, 15:18:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Nano » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 15:13:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o one demands we "drop Science & Technology." Such a statement misrepresents the mindset and the solutions proffered by reasonable, well-intentioned doomers here.


Amen! Make sure to repeat that occasionally, and also that the problem for Man (or rather Poor Man), is not caused by lack of technology but by lack of will only, like you did.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 24 Aug 2010, 20:14:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'I')f oxygen level goes from 21% to 19% humans start to notice the effect. It would start to pay to have access to supplementary oxygen.
Ok doomers, raise your hand if you already have this stocked in bulk:

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The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 25 Aug 2010, 00:25:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')ropping science and technology? Can anyone name any selective pressures that will favor reduced brain size and complexity?


The Beastie Boys dropped science like Galileo dropped the orange (at 3:09):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtdKvEpl-Uo
:)
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