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THE Stephen Hawking Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 06:13:05

At the same time as arriving at any given point in 'no time' the astronaut would simultaneously arrive at every other point. Thus 'splatternaut' would be a better term. Mystic yoga has more control and an equal amount of reality, relatively.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 10:42:43

Why apply all of our knowledge to prediction of what is going to do us in, what blocks our avenues of escape, and how all of the various technologies don't equate to the bodacious petroleum and hydrocarbon exploit we have rode to it's apogee.

We need a humongous global project to save the world, knowing that it may fail, it will still be a better effort than individuals plotting how their life may be extended a few years past unprepared lives, or how a few countries may be able to dominate resources and outlast the bulk of other nations. I say it would be healthier and more productive to launch such a global project than to persist in the notion that conservative economics in Western countries will be able to balance the missing resources by making their books balance, or that we are locked into the age old clash of civilizations with winner take almost all.

Peak Oil could be the website that starts it. Nothing off the table, to heck with rich guys manipulating and trading carbon chits, mandate coal power plants produce tons of biochar and allow new pioneers to plow it into poor land or barter it to the desert Persian Gulf nations for petroleum and get them reclaiming the desert and growing food on it.

We have a website full of bright and dedicated people who have turned their attention to the things that will end their existence or bash it a B movie zombie scenario. We have nuclear, physics,
permaculture, biofuel, wind power, solar power, mass transit, transition town, petroleum geologists,
ranting hippies, psychologists, programmers, mechanics, homesteaders, Moms and Dads, people who eat statistics like popcorn and perform analysis, and... wait for it... vigorous debate.

Consider it a fantasy or pipe dream project if it helps you justify getting your head around it,
but we need to structure, define, and debate a unified field theory where we take all of the sum total of our coping and exploiting technology and thinking and build a first order proposal for a global life raft.

No matter what, it will be more useful to any and all of us, and showcase the power of people who actually see trends and contemplate them as being a positive force.

The people who run the nations of the world, especially the US are all about jockeying for national and more recently, corporate domination at the loss of the opposing team. We have reached the peak of where this yields real winners, and while this process has always assured real losers, the winner yield curve is bending towards zero and the game is down to who gets the most time with the fewest consequences before total loss. We are playing for deck position on the Titanic.

We have to dream bigger and do better and perhaps die in the process of trying to implement it if we do not succeed. It is the most probable way to win for mankind and the least damaging way to descend towards chaos if that still be the answer.

In addition to saving the world, my goals are modest, it would be interesting to see what sort of product comes out of a website that is rich in talent and information, and is now wilting away since
it is an absolute drag to know all about and debate why we are screwed with no way out.

Mr. Hawking has applied his mind to why we are screwed and so have almost all of us.
Let's face it, it is a miserable and crappy life to walk this road.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 11:12:37

Go for it!
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 15:26:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')t the same time as arriving at any given point in 'no time' the astronaut would simultaneously arrive at every other point. Thus 'splatternaut' would be a better term.

Unfortunately our astronaut would never achieve speed of light so his time would not cease to exist.

While approaching speed of light he would have to contend with runaway gain of mass as per equation:

m = m0/sqrt(1-v2/c2)

At speed of light his mass would grow to infinity (so energy needed to accelerate him to this speed would also be infinite) but marginally below this speed our unlucky astronaut would gravitationally collapse into a black hole or similar alternative object.

While approaching speed of light he would observe increasingly blue shifted radiation (again blue shift at c would be infinite but close to c cosmic microwave radiation would be experienced as hard gamma rays etc).

It seems that Mother Nature conspires to prevent our astronaut from achieving speed of light, no matter how much he tries.
And if he tries too much, something really awful is bound to happen to him.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Pretorian » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 20:44:49

one of the links suggested Universe's death in 22 billion years? Now that is upsetting. Anyways, it seems weird that there was nothing around our micro-dot before the Big Bang and that there will be nothing in 22 billion years ever after. That we went from not having time or even laws of physics to what we have now and we'll go to nothing again. Something is missing. Either there are other Universes (and if so, unimaginable quantities of them ) or something is missing in this picture.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 04:23:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'o')ne of the links suggested Universe's death in 22 billion years? Now that is upsetting. Anyways, it seems weird that there was nothing around our micro-dot before the Big Bang and that there will be nothing in 22 billion years ever after. That we went from not having time or even laws of physics to what we have now and we'll go to nothing again. Something is missing. Either there are other Universes (and if so, unimaginable quantities of them ) or something is missing in this picture.

There are things, which we will never know and cannot know even in theory.

Our knowledge and areas available to investigation are restricted to event horizon of *our* Universe.

Discussion about "other Universes" is pointless.
Anything (or nothing at all) might be there but one can say with 100% certainty that you will not enjoy it.

What is fascinating in respect of Big Rip is that if true, sometime in the future some intelligent beings might be in position to observe actual End of the World.
Literally in fact.

They would stay alive until the very last minutes of Universe existence and then end up shredded apart...
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 06:03:50

22 billion years is the approximate half life of our piddly little sun, which we are about at now.
The universe (known) will continue much longer, perhaps trillions of years from now there will still be thriving intelligent species somewhere in this univesre, far more likely than not. I'm with you Pretorian. Just as there is no limit to space there is an equally limitless interior, or sub space. We are on a little precipice somewhere in infinity, with a bit of a view of a few dimensions out of piles of them.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Pretorian » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 09:44:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Discussion about "other Universes" is pointless.
Anything (or nothing at all) might be there but one can say with 100% certainty that you will not enjoy it.



There are brazilions of things that I and an absolute majority of humanity not only will not enjoy but also not even interested in yet they are investigated and discussed over and over again. Its like saying what is the point to discuss if Earth is round or not if it looks flat anyway.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 10:37:11

I suppose we can't resolve how smart some amongst us are with how ignorant we are behaving as a sum total, and so we focus on the challenges to the idea of just flying away to a fresh world as a fix.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 10:57:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '2')2 billion years is the approximate half life of our piddly little sun, which we are about at now.
The universe (known) will continue much longer, perhaps trillions of years from now there will still be thriving intelligent species somewhere in this univesre, far more likely than not. I'm with you Pretorian. Just as there is no limit to space there is an equally limitless interior, or sub space. We are on a little precipice somewhere in infinity, with a bit of a view of a few dimensions out of piles of them.

These are only statements of faith substantiated by nothing.

Age of Sun is only in range of 5 billions years.
Universe is about 14 billions years old.
You are in need of learning more if you want to discuss these subjects intelligently.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 11:07:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '
')There are brazilions of things that I and an absolute majority of humanity not only will not enjoy but also not even interested in yet they are investigated and discussed over and over again. Its like saying what is the point to discuss if Earth is round or not if it looks flat anyway.

You cannot test properties of "other Universes" or make any experimentally verifiable predictions about them even in theory.

That implies that discussions what might be there or not are meaningless.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 11:22:53

Being accurate on the physics and time scale of interplanetary dynamics is of course vitally important.
Those among us who have more foundation in such matters would be better to advise other people of good intentions of the probable facts and scenarios than to simply disparage them.

Or as Will Rogers said, "everyone is ignorant, just in different areas".

Come together or come apart, and those enlightened on astrophysics need only remind us that our imaginations are still way out in front of the vehicle and related logistics to "blow this taco stand" short of a lifeboat that hovers relatively close to the mother ship planet that spawned it.

Let us not waste the energy to be disagreeable with the few people concerned enough to participate.

On my save the world meme, I have read Lester Brown's Plan B and related updates and I find it to be totally bent toward the alternative energy schemes excluding nuclear and bridging with fossil fuels and therefore to be short of a plan that let's all players on all potential levels push forth to determine what yields they can achieve. I.E. Plan B leaves too many resources, minds, and pools of funding out of the solutions team.

We need a pot luck solution for the sliver bullet ride of petroleum exploitation, we can't afford to lose any kitchen that can bring a pot full of something to the party. I fully expect some will bring some delicious stuff and many others will bring a pot of garbage which if we are smart, we will see as at least being useful compost.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 12:22:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '
')We need a pot luck solution for the sliver bullet ride of petroleum exploitation, we can't afford to lose any kitchen that can bring a pot full of something to the party. I fully expect some will bring some delicious stuff and many others will bring a pot of garbage which if we are smart, we will see as at least being useful compost.



Do you have any ideas about how this information will be organized and applied? We've been amassing pot luck solution information here at po.com for years now. Do you have any ideas or plans on how it could be made more useful to the world outside po.com?
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby hillsidedigger » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 12:48:56

The Saturn 5 rocket burned 15 tons of kerosene per second (the kerosene was pumped by electric motors powerful enough to light up a city) for several minutes just to get 2 people to the Moon for a brief visit.

What would it take to get even 1/10,000th. of the humans off the planet permanently?
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 14:57:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hillsidedigger', 'T')he Saturn 5 rocket burned 15 tons of kerosene per second (the kerosene was pumped by electric motors powerful enough to light up a city) for several minutes just to get 2 people to the Moon for a brief visit.

What would it take to get even 1/10,000th. of the humans off the planet permanently?

That depends of speedwith which they are going to travel.

Interstellar travel with speed more than few % of c is probably impossible to achieve or alternatively it would take so much resources and long term planning to prepare that humanity is not fit to attempt it.

Considerations related to specific impulse are implying that even rockets working base on annihilation of matter are not good really to speed up to more than ~10% of c and then slow down at destination.

If such travel at significant fraction of c would be possible to achieve without gargantuan preps (and common between advanced civilizations by the same), then we are left with all important question, where all these Aliens are gone?.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 15:38:29

I am thinking about such a framework Ludi as time permits me. I will of course bring something back to the party and float it here when I compile my initial thoughts. Much of our PO efforts have been debates on a theme of course with the theme serving to bring the crucial factors of scale, probability, personal experience, and objections to the item or issue. The time elapsed since we began our efforts here has shown that immediate and sudden doom has not manifested and that the factors driving consequences are very much in motion on slower trajectories. We have identified scams, premature technologies and doom scenarios, and potentials that are associated with various sized question marks.
What is missing is the results of this real world filtering and collection of ideas and experience into a form where it is a tool box proposal that then itself undergoes the PO.com sieve.

My sense is that we have left gold dust and some nuggets in the pan in our frantic search for gold bars.
Last edited by efarmer on Thu 19 Aug 2010, 15:40:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 15:39:04

I've been thinking about a better way to describe this thing...

To the common experience, you push on something, it scoots along, (accelerates), and in a frictionless environment, keeps scooting along till it hits something. (air hockey table).

Now, lets shift to v approaching c (ie, getting close to the speed of light), when you give such an object a push, a push that would say, make it go 10 mph faster than it was before; what happens in nature, is that it does go a little faster, but it also gets HEAVIER. The energy didn't disappear, it just didn't turn into increased velocity, instead it turned into increased mass. And the closer you get to c, the greater the contribution is to mass, and the less to velocity.

So, no, there will be no faster than light zipping about the galaxy. There *could* be generational ships, or permanent space colonies, if we were wiser with our resources, and less driven by our predatory instincts. But.. .We aren't ET. We are hominids, medium weight, territorial, social predators, who've discovered a sweet tooth and are content to remain placid until the kibble runs out. Space adventures to far away stars... don't make kibble.

I'm with the Joker on this one... "these people... are only as civilized as the world allows them to be....."
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 15:43:42

Agentr wrote:

"content to remain placid until the kibble runs out. Space adventures to far away stars... don't make kibble."


This kibble nibbler enjoyed that line immensely.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 20:29:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '2')2 billion years is the approximate half life of our piddly little sun, which we are about at now.
The universe (known) will continue much longer, perhaps trillions of years from now there will still be thriving intelligent species somewhere in this univesre, far more likely than not. I'm with you Pretorian. Just as there is no limit to space there is an equally limitless interior, or sub space. We are on a little precipice somewhere in infinity, with a bit of a view of a few dimensions out of piles of them.

These are only statements of faith substantiated by nothing.

Age of Sun is only in range of 5 billions years.
Universe is about 14 billions years old.
You are in need of learning more if you want to discuss these subjects intelligently.


Gee a physics degree makes you intelligent! Better go get one now; SEE YOU IN 7 YEARS.
I don't think it matters if it's 2 billion of a trillion or a trillion of a quadrillion, the 44 billion entire life of the sun figure has been thrown around. If enough scientists say something, of course it must be true, right?
My point is that there is no edge to space and no zero point at the core of an atom.
100 years ago the universe was composed of atoms, full stop.
Now we have quarks and sub quark particles, string theory and particle string theory.
There are proven dimensions of existence we know are there but know nothing (almost) about.

Why is it that the people who know or should know the real limits to our space travel capability are so often the ones promoting it? A few reads back you already told me I don't understand physics and that an astronaut could travel at light speed to anywhere in 'no time'. I think you followed with a retraction about infinite mass/ energy equation after I enquired as to the health of your nuetronic splatternaut.

Bottom line is the idea is a silly masquerade; a distraction from real problems with real solutions, HERE ON EARTH; enough to keep us plenty busy for a few million generations.
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