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Main Doomer Fallacy

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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 02:11:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'B')ut these scientists didn’t challenge the idea of accelerating technology directly.


Try doing that - in public - as a scientist - and see what it does to you position and credibility.

It's like a mousetrapinventor renting himself out to invent mousetraps proclaiming that there is no better mousetrap. How will that convince his customers?


There have been plenty of challengers crying "Bullshit!" at previous Singularity Summits. No one worth listening to would be turned away simply because of their skepticism. Skepticism is absolutely necessary if you proclaim a fondness for things scientific. And the skeptical attitude really is sought by the Singularity crowd, hence, James Randi's presence. It just happened that no one of stature showed up this time around to tear down any presumed castles-built-in-air.

I think it's fairly well-understood that progress in Science is accelerating. And the reasons why are well-understood. Everyone seems to grasp that China's and India's huge, well-educated and motivated populations are poised to further push Science to new heights. This is not to suggest that American and European Science establishments are slouching in any way. Our institutions have never been healthier; incredible progress is being made.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Pops » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 14:37:03

One more time,

At what price point will increasing energy cost limit R&D?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby dsula » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 14:43:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne more time,

At what price point will increasing energy cost limit R&D?

At any price. The question is at what price does it limit Research to 0. Or at what price does it limit it below the 'keep-up' curve of world-problems that need solving.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 15:56:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'A')nd the skeptical attitude really is sought by the Singularity crowd, hence, James Randi's presence. It just happened that no one of stature showed up this time around to tear down any presumed castles-built-in-air.

Neither any prominent skeptic "of stature" has turned out on last conference of Flat Earth Society.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think it's fairly well-understood that progress in Science is accelerating.

Geography about dead, chemistry dying, experimental high energy physics reaching its limits, theoretical physics is gradually turning into experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery (string theories are coming to mind here) etc.

Biology and genetics in particular or IT have some life left perhaps, time will show how much.

So keep on dreaming.

Today we have mobile phone so tomorrow we are going to get time machine :-D :-D
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Wed 18 Aug 2010, 16:55:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby frood » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 16:53:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', ' ')The Singularity is near…


You forgot to add from that site:

"....we can be easily fooled when we think about every situation through the lens or our own specialty. Accelerating technologies. Exponential graphs of computer processing power. Amazing developments in artificial intelligence. These are the focus of the Singularity Summit and of futurists the world over. They are powerful indicators of what humanity may accomplish in the years ahead, but we must be cautious not to see every development as further evidence of their truth. Technological optimism must be balanced by healthy skepticism, or we will blindly pursue pipe dreams while ignoring the arrival of greater benefits and dangers. That’s the final lesson I took away from Singularity Summit 2010"
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:13:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frood', 'T')echnological optimism must be balanced by healthy skepticism, or we will blindly pursue pipe dreams while ignoring the arrival of greater benefits and dangers. That’s the final lesson I took away from Singularity Summit 2010"


Well, there are plenty of healthy skeptics of The Singularity who regularly contribute to the literature. And they are all totally welcome. There's never any bitching and moaning about them from Singulans.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:18:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')b]experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery



That is an excellent phrase. :)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:36:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')b]experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery

That is an excellent phrase. :)


Does anyone here actually understand the scientific method?

You MUST be able to demonstrate an experiment or show mathematics so that other researchers can duplicate or verify your results. That's the whole point of publishing in scientific journals. As a researcher, when you publish an experiment, you are saying to the scientific community at large, "Look what I have shown in this experiment. If you do the same experiment, you will get the same results.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:40:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')b]experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery

That is an excellent phrase. :)


Does anyone here actually understand the scientific method?



I'm pretty sure EnergyUnlimited does, as he is a professional in a scientific field.

I was merely commenting on the beauty of his language.

<<<< no scientific training whatsoever :)
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne more time,

At what price point will increasing energy cost limit R&D?


No one is stepping up to the plate except for me, Pops. My answer: Never.

Science is not an artifact of culture as doomers mistakenly assert.

It is not an artifact of consumer society. Consumerism derives from Science and Economics. If consumerism fails us in some important way, then Science and Economics will direct the evolution of society some other way. This is because Science is a hallmark of the species Homo Sapiens Sapiens itself. We have no other approach to solving our societal problems. So no matter how dire the situation of any group of humans, they will ALWAYS employ experimentation, reasoning and rationality to solve major problems.

I can imagine corporations having to slash R&D budgets due to poor earnings and a weak economy, but that is just one avenue of Science funding. Research & Development is usually a short-term corporate expense for a long term gain. Those who fail to keep up R&D completely will waste away in the marketplace.

Scientific exploration is also a key component of our Western sense of culture and identity... and now everywhere else around the world as well, since everyone can see how successful the West has been scientifically and economically. The whole world has grown to rely upon the institution.
Last edited by Carlhole on Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:31:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:02:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')b]experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery

That is an excellent phrase. :)


Does anyone here actually understand the scientific method?


I'm pretty sure EnergyUnlimited does, as he is a professional in a scientific field.

I was merely commenting on the beauty of his language.

<<<< no scientific training whatsoever :)


I think EU is a she.

...and the dumbass quote you used indicates that she doesn't understand the scientific method at all. Because when you publish an experiment in a journal. You are saying, "Check my math if you don't believe me! Check my experimental method! You will get the same results I did." In other words, you put your work out there to be feted or debunked.

To take an example, Einstein is STILL being tested and confirmed. If any scientists is able to show that Einstein is wrong, he/she will make big waves in showing exactly how relativity is incorrect or incomplete as a theory

EU is saying that science journals deliberately publish mathematical rubbish in order to pull wool over many eyes. That is just ignorant horsesh*t -- which isn't beautiful at all. She's also claiming (see last page) that Science has peaked NOW - which is also complete rubbish.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') was merely commenting on the beauty of his language
"experimentally non-verifiable mathematical wankery"

HAAAAAAAA-Ha-Ha-ha-ha-hahahahaahaa! :lol:
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby sparky » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:59:37

.
There is a whole range of science ,
from the single mathematician working alone in his lounge with a pen and pencil
to the CERN collider which cost tens of billions and employ thousands of scientist and associated staff

the Space programs are a pretty goo example of cut back ,
Even though the communication ( and military ) satellites are doing fine

fundamental physic got so costly , the projects are scaled-back or shelved for good
science departments are starved , just ask any British scientists
an other factor is it's hard , with uncertain job prospects and poor pay

As for applied science and private R&d that has been cut back too
since the factories have gone to new manufacturing countries
What is still going is biology with the brand new field of applied genetics
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 03:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')EU is saying that science journals deliberately publish mathematical rubbish in order to pull wool over many eyes. That is just ignorant horsesh*t -- which isn't beautiful at all. She's also claiming (see last page) that Science has peaked NOW - which is also complete rubbish.

String theories are dealing with energies which are far beyond any hope for experimental testing (more than 15 orders of magnitude beyond capabilities of LHC for example).
So it is a mathematical wankery which will never be confirmed or refuted by experiment and yet published in most prestigious journals.

Obviously you are too stupid to work it out.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 03:48:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')EU is saying that science journals deliberately publish mathematical rubbish in order to pull wool over many eyes. That is just ignorant horsesh*t -- which isn't beautiful at all. She's also claiming (see last page) that Science has peaked NOW - which is also complete rubbish.

String theories are dealing with energies which are far beyond any hope for experimental testing (more than 15 orders of magnitude beyond capabilities of LHC for example).
So it is a mathematical wankery which will never be confirmed or refuted by experiment and yet published in most prestigious journals.

Obviously you are too stupid to work it out.


No one has said anything about String Theory here in this thread. It is merely a theory and not held out as proven truth in any science journals. There are competing theories to explain the Universe. Whenever it is possible to test whether or not a given theory is right or wrong, scientists do so. What do you expect from people? That they never venture a hypothesis about anything?

You just don't seem to know ANYTHING about the way Science is done.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 04:00:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'N')o one has said anything about String Theory here in this thread. It is merely a theory and not held out as proven truth in any science journals. There are competitive theories to explain the Universe. Whenever it is possible to test whether or not a given theory is right or wrong, scientists do so. What do you expect from people? That they never venture a hypothesis about anything?

String and also brane theories or "many worlds interpretation of QM" are beyond any realistic hope of experimental testing.
Scientists involved are understanding it.

In classical Poppersian sense such theories are not qualifying as "science" because they cannot be falsified or upheld by experiment.
Yet a lot of theoretical work is being done in that area and this work is published in prestigious journals.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 04:35:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'N')o one has said anything about String Theory here in this thread. It is merely a theory and not held out as proven truth in any science journals. There are competing theories to explain the Universe. Whenever it is possible to test whether or not a given theory is right or wrong, scientists do so. What do you expect from people? That they never venture a hypothesis about anything?

String and also brane theories or "many worlds interpretation of QM" are beyond any realistic hope of experimental testing. Scientists involved are understanding it.

In classical Poppersian sense such theories are not qualifying as "science" because they cannot be falsified or upheld by experiment. Yet a lot of theoretical work is being done in that area and this work is published in prestigious journals.


In no way does the discussion about String Theory amongst the physics community impune scientific journals for deliberately publishing mathematical rubbish. Is that what you are trying to pose as an example of "mathematical wankery"? String Theory?

You've got some serious issues with your perception of how the world works.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 05:18:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')In no way does the discussion about String Theory amongst the physics community impune scientific journals for deliberately publishing mathematical rubbish. Is that what you are trying to pose as an example of "mathematical wankery"? String Theory?

World of mathematics (abstract world) is much wider than physical world.
Only a tiny proportion of possible mathematical models is realized in physical world.

So "mathematical wankery" published is from mathematical perspective formally OK because maths presented is coherent.
In fact sting theories are trying to deal with problems related to renormalization which are haunting Standard Model and sometimes fails altogether (gravity cannot be re-normalized).
Renormalization itself is seen as necessary evil and in general is disliked by mathematicians or physicists who are often questioning validity of principal merits of it.

Nevertheless there is no conceivable way to prove or disprove that these models [string/brane theories] are relevant to physical world, hence in Poppersian sense it is not "science".

So string theories have more in common with religion than science because they are experimentally unprovable and subjected only to approval by faith.
You may believe in one of them or not but it is irrelevant.
You will not play with energies ranging ~ 10 E19 GeV, so you will never know if any of them is true.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou've got some serious issues with your perception of how the world works.

On the other hand you have no such perception at all.
You are relying on academic and industrial PR hype and try to push it as "science".
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 05:50:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'Y')ou are relying on academic and industrial PR hype and try to push it as "science".


Look, you said that scientific journals deliberately deceive the scientific community and the public by publishing "mathematical wankery" and you gave String Theory as an example. Your whole argument is just farking ridiculous as is everything else you've ever posted.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 05:57:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Look, you said that scientific journals deliberately deceive the scientific community and the public by publishing "mathematical wankery" and you gave String Theory as an example. Your whole argument is just farking ridiculous as is everything else you've ever posted.

You are not fit to understand simple text.

I did not claim that it was deliberate deception.
I have claimed that these theories are not scientific in Poppersian sense because they are unfalsifiable by experiment.
I have also noted that these nonscientific theories are published in respected scientific journals.
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Re: Main Doomer Fallacy

Unread postby Carlhole » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 06:37:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Look, you said that scientific journals deliberately deceive the scientific community and the public by publishing "mathematical wankery" and you gave String Theory as an example. Your whole argument is just farking ridiculous as is everything else you've ever posted.

You are not fit to understand simple text.

I did not claim that it was deliberate deception.
I have claimed that these theories are not scientific in Poppersian sense because they are unfalsifiable by experiment.
I have also noted that these nonscientific theories are published in respected scientific journals.


Oh come on. You trashed the American Chemical Society Journal by claiming that they could not do simply arithmetic and were foisting a "scam". And then you jumped all over me for posting the news and called me a "troll" for doing so and bitched long and hard about it.

You're full of sh*t.
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