[ROCKMAN]

T - "...why is it so hard for some people to understand?" It may not be so much about understanding as accepting. We all have similar blind spots about something in our lives. For me it's about eating too much Blue Bell ice cream being bad for me. How the hell can that be?!? Yeah...I understand it. But does that mean I have to accept it?

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')eak or not, people see those goofy stories about trillions of barrels of oil in the ground and think it will all be made available for $3.00 per barrel. It costs $80.00 and up for much of the current oil supply, and as more of the cheaper stuff depletes the average only has one direction to go. Either you pay more, or they will produce less. Basic common sense, why is it so hard for some people to understand?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I')t costs $80.00 and up for much of the current oil supply, and as more of the cheaper stuff depletes the average only has one direction to go.

[bobcousins]

I always thought there may be an analogy with whale oil prices :



When the peak hits, prices become volatile with big spikes, but after that more or less settle into a permanently higher zone as production declines.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') always thought there may be an analogy with whale oil prices :



When the peak hits, prices become volatile with big spikes, but after that more or less settle into a permanently higher zone as production declines.

[M_B_S]

http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2014/ ... h-fracking

Peak oil is not a myth

20 February 2014Chemistry World









One might have the impression that hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of shale deposits is the answer to world energy security. Certainly fracking has received much attention and investment, but its prospects must be considered in a broader context.1



In the US, where practically all such operations have been conducted to date, fracking now accounts for 40% of domestic gas production and 30% of oil production. The price of natural gas has plummeted, and overall US oil production has increased for the first time since 1970, which had otherwise been falling in accordance with the predictions M King Hubbert made in 1956.
********************

You think Peak Oil is dead? Bloody Idiot!

You can print Money but no oil nor soil=food !

M_B_S

M_B_S

[ROCKMAN]

MBS - Actually Hubbert's prediction has proved to be very accurate. His prediction for future production was only for those trends he based his statistical analysis...not all future US oil production. He clearly states he wasn't predicting future production from new and undeveloped trends such as the Deep Water GOM and the shales.

A small point that many miss. He was predicting the future production/development of all those major conventional oil trends that had been developed prior to his projection. And production from those fields has never exceeded his forecast date.

[Tanada]

Whale oil gets pulled out of the hat to explain Peak Oil frequently, but it is a horribly flawed analogy at best. Whale oil lamps were only used by the upper middle class and upper class, the average person used alcohol mixed with turpentine. Everyone like Whale oil because it smelled pleasant when burnt, unlike Alcohol/Turpentine or Kerosene lamps. Alcohol made up most of the fuel and turpentine was added to it to give a yellow flame instead of the nearly invisible flame of pure alcohol. The main competitor was coal oil aka kerosene made by converting coal into coke for blast furnaces. The vapor driven off from the coke ovens was reverse distilled condensing out different useful chemicals at different temperatures, the bulk being Kerosene.

Drake started searching for oil when he learned that a Polish scientist has figured out a distillation process to convert the bulk of Petroleum into Kerosene at a cost about half that of the Coal Oil version. He didn't do it because we ran out of whales that luxury good smelling lamp oil was made from. Whale oil was ALWAYS an expensive luxury oil, that is why the Whales were hunted nearly to extinction even after Drake made kerosene cheaper than alcohol/turpentine lamp oil.

[kuidaskassikaeb]

Good post

[Graeme]

Today we are still 'hunting' for oil and it is we who face extinction. The hunters don't give a toss.

[Timo]

Short-term gains over long-term consequences. Which is more important: temporary money, temporary jobs and mythical perpetual economic growth today, the consequences of which mean giving your children and grandchildren a living hell with no hope of getting any better, OR modifying our God given way of life to ensure a livable future for all of God's creation?

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'W')hale oil gets pulled out of the hat to explain Peak Oil frequently, but it is a horribly flawed analogy at best.

[Graeme]

This article was posted on the front page but it also needs to be posted in a forum. This is as good a place as any.

World crude production 2013 without shale oil is back to 2005 levels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nnoticed by the mainstream media, US shale oil covers up a recent decline of crude oil production of 1.5 mb/d in the rest of world (using data up to Oct 2013). This means that without US shale oil the world would be in a deep oil crisis similar to the decline phase 2006/07 when oil prices went up. The decline comes from many countries but is also caused by fights over oil and oil-related issues in Iran, Libya and other countries which can be seen on TV every day.

Incremental production for each country is calculated as the difference between total production and the minimum production between Jan 2001 and Oct 2013. The sum of minima is the base production. Countries which had substantial changes in production appear as large areas in the graph. Russia supplied – quite reliably – the largest increment and the North Sea (UK and Norway) had the largest losses. Countries which feature prominently are Venezuela (low production in Jan 2003 due to a strike), Iraq (low production in April 2003 during the Iraq war), Libya (war in 2011), Iran (sanctions) and Saudi Arabia (production increase since 2002 and swing role)
Production is stacked from bottom as follows:
(1) countries with growing production: Kazachstan (recently flat), Russia (only +100 kb/d last year), Colombia (+60 kb/d), China (recently flat) and Canada (+200 kb/d syncrude from tarsands)
(2) Countries flat or in decline like UK and Norway
(3) countries which recently peaked: Brazil and Azerbaijan
Groups (1) to (3) peaked in Nov 2011 (dashed line) and declined by 1.2 mb/ since then
(4) OPEC countries with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Libya
(5) US on top to see the impact of shale oil

[dorlomin]

I sense change is coming.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')ight shale is a rich-countries indulgence, a bauble like a diamond brooch around the neck of Donald Trump latest squeeze. It signifies wealth and boredom and little else. We can afford to produce it for a while, just as we afford all sorts of debt-based stupidity.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '-')snip-
Welcome to the second half of the oil age.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he end comes when the EROEI ratio approaches unity for each supply type. Then the price rises exponentially and never comes down.