[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')fter a few clicks I found the original journal.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 2/2006.toc

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'c')heap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

[Quinny]

I couldn't safely get to work at the moment without spending 12.5% of my income on fuel. This doesn't include maintenance and oil etc.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

[Graeme]

I have a couple of further observations to make.

First, I'd like to say that it was gratifying to see that reps from the oil industry acknowledge that CO2 is a problem (see Box 3 page 20 of the Mitchell and Sorrel paper). However, they incorrectly state that emissions from coal are 70% of those from oil and gas. The IEA state on page 8 that emissions from coal were 43%, and oil and gas were 56% in 2010. And Hansen has recently stated that 2 degrees is disastrous, and 1 degree is the danger limit. This means that we cannot burn any more carbon!!

The casual observation I made earlier in this thread about oil production declining off the plateau in 2023 as a result of zero GNE is nearly the same as the prediction of peak fossil fuels by the Energy Watch Group, see figure 116 on page 132). For the future of global climate and civilization, let's hope that the EWG is right!

[AirlinePilot]

Graeme,

We will be off the plateau well before we get to zero GNE. I think West Texas work shows that a recognized and longer term decline begins very soon, significantly before we get down near zero GNE. Folks like shorty will still believe that its just another dip/bump in the never ending resource boom of oil. Another peak will be upon us shortly as those prices rise once again. Thats one of the main problems I have with him. His "peak in the past" meme is patently absurd yet he continues to spout off about how since we already peaked and things are ok....how bad can it get? We peaked already and things are fine!!!! Why worry about any of this or pay attention to a dumb site filled with doomers? (another of his and a few other trolls mistaken carricatures)

The fact is we haven't peaked yet..but this sure looks like a final push before the long decline begins to a lot of us. No one wants to face it nor believe it and significant resources will be brought to bear to hide it. I believe this is already occurring.

[Serial_Worrier]

Funny where I am gas prices have stayed flat for 3-4 years.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'G')raeme,

We will be off the plateau well before we get to zero GNE. I think West Texas work shows that a recognized and longer term decline begins very soon, significantly before we get down near zero GNE. Folks like shorty will still believe that its just another dip/bump in the never ending resource boom of oil. Another peak will be upon us shortly as those prices rise once again. Thats one of the main problems I have with him. His "peak in the past" meme is patently absurd yet he continues to spout off about how since we already peaked and things are ok....how bad can it get? We peaked already and things are fine!!!! Why worry about any of this or pay attention to a dumb site filled with doomers? (another of his and a few other trolls mistaken carricatures)

The fact is we haven't peaked yet..but this sure looks like a final push before the long decline begins to a lot of us. No one wants to face it nor believe it and significant resources will be brought to bear to hide it. I believe this is already occurring.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')If the peak hits and the economy breaks I really worry how the average spoiled American is going to react.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'G')raeme,

We will be off the plateau well before we get to zero GNE. I think West Texas work shows that a recognized and longer term decline begins very soon, significantly before we get down near zero GNE. Folks like shorty will still believe that its just another dip/bump in the never ending resource boom of oil. Another peak will be upon us shortly as those prices rise once again. Thats one of the main problems I have with him. His "peak in the past" meme is patently absurd yet he continues to spout off about how since we already peaked and things are ok....how bad can it get? We peaked already and things are fine!!!! Why worry about any of this or pay attention to a dumb site filled with doomers? (another of his and a few other trolls mistaken carricatures)

The fact is we haven't peaked yet..but this sure looks like a final push before the long decline begins to a lot of us. No one wants to face it nor believe it and significant resources will be brought to bear to hide it. I believe this is already occurring.

[AirlinePilot]

Predicting when global production begins its longer term fall off the top is problematic. It WILL be an undulating plateau as we are seeing now. I think we will know when the final, real, global peak production number is somewhere around or before 2020. And that may be in the rear view mirror too!

A key point on GNE to remember....WT talks about China and India as a measure in statistics only. They are not the ONLY countries which require imports of oil. I believe his point all along has been to look at GNE as the telltale. We will get to the point where GNE decline is significant WELL before the point where those two countries consume all available exports. Thats been WT's point all along..with current BAU consumption we dont have a whole lot of time before declines in GNE start having a significant impact on global crude prices. We may be there now.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'S')o it's not clear to me when global production will begin to fall according to his model.

[Graeme]

Pops, Thanks. There is no relationship between exports and production. So we can't use the ELM to predict global production. It seems to be too simplistic anyway. I saw in wiki that some countries like UK and Norway don't fit the model because those countries have high oil prices by world standards. PStarr, the figure you posted looked familiar coz I saw it in wiki. Thanks. For the moment, I prefer the EWG prediction of a global production peak around 2020 and subsequent global production decline after that time.

[Pops]

Greame I'm of the opinion that the plateau is the peak. Not a very satisfying answer I know, LOL.

Here from Staniford is production, the green line is what used to be called oil, the top lines include all the other stuff


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/o ... .html#more

Here is a plot of oil production from the various regions:



The only areas that look to be increasing are NA and the ME. When the US LTO bump goes away and our line turns down again I think that's about the ball game. The EIA says 2016 is the top for LTO and then 4 years of plateau so that fits your 2020 date.

Lots of things could happen though, 3-4mmbopd of actual oil are shut in now because of politics and could be freed up. The headlines are the economy is (once again) set to take off next year and that will cause a spike in oil prices because contrary to popular opinion, KSA is still the swing producer and they are running pretty flat out. Again from Staniford:



A repricing of oil to some higher level either as a result of the eventual popping of the LTO bubble or in the sooner case, a warmed over economy that drives up demand, might makes some new process or area profitable - I can't guess about that, or, like higher prices have done for several years now; they could shut the economy down.
.

[Graeme]

Pops, Again thanks for your response and additional insights regarding LTO and ME production. I already knew that the plateau was the peak but I was trying to find out when global oil production will fall off the plateau. I mentioned earlier that the Jackson and Smith paper stated that the plateau will probably continue after 2040. I thought that was too conservative. It seems that the series of papers are internally inconsistent because, in the lead Miller and Sorrel paper, they state that "a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020".

In view of my posting today in the China thread, it was heartening to see that China is PO aware now that Millers paper has been published.

Hunger and conflict in wake of oil drought

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') former British Petroleum geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves".

Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4 per cent per year.

"We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every three to four years to maintain and grow supply," he said. "New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover, but production is still falling at 4.1 per cent a year."

Miller, who prepared annual in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007, refers to this as the "ATM problem", "more money, but still limited daily withdrawals".

"Production of conventional liquid oil has been flat since 2008. Growth in liquid supply since then has been largely of natural gas liquids [NGL]- ethane, propane, butane, pentane - and oil-sand bitumen."


They endorse the conservative conclusions of an extensive earlier study by the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre: "… a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020... on current evidence the inclusion of tight oil [shale oil] resources appears unlikely to significantly affect this conclusion, partly because the resource base appears relatively modest".

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I') mentioned earlier that the Jackson and Smith paper stated that the plateau will probably continue after 2040. I thought that was too conservative. It seems that the series of papers are internally inconsistent because, in the lead Miller and Sorrel paper, they state that "a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020".

[Graeme]

If Peak Oil Is Dead, Why Haven't Prices Dropped?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Richard G. Miller, trained as a geologist, joined BP as a geochemist in 1985. He studied peak oil matters since 1991, when BP asked him the following year to devise a wholly new way to estimate global oil resources. In 2000, he was tasked with creating an in-house projection of global future oil demand and supply to 2030. The model he created was updated annually through 2008; then the effort was disbanded and he moved on to his present work consulting on peak oil. Most recently, Dr. Miller co-authored The Future of Oil Supply, which was published by The Royal Society (on-line December 2, 2013), in a thematic issue of Philosophical Transactions entirely devoted to future world oil supply; he also served as co-editor of that 12-article publication.

Steve Andrews touched base with him last week for the Peak Oil Review, a publication of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, USA.

Q: Andrews: BP has recently said definitively that “peak oil is dead.” How does an oil super-major reach such a conclusion, at least for purposes of public policy dialogue?

Dr. Richard Miller: I can’t shed any light on why they’re saying that today because it hasn’t been their consistent position in the past. A CEO like Lord John Browne clearly at least kept his options open on the idea; and he was the one who started to steer the company into alternative energy. The one who really didn’t have any sympathy with peak oil was Tony Hayward; it was really sad to see him bring the company’s investments in photovoltaics and other non-conventional energy almost to a screeching halt, deciding that the company was going to become a pure hydrocarbons company. That did seem very short-sighted. What’s odd of course is that he’s a geologist, and a very good geologist. You would think that someone like that could at least see that peak oil is not only coming, it’s quite probably here, in terms of conventional oil.



The worst case scenario is that we keep desperately trying to find and produce more oil such that it brings us to a sharp peak. If we get a sharp peak, we would simply get civil unrest and collapse, maybe in the space of a couple of years because that’s how quickly it could be. A loss of 5+% of global supply in two years would just be awful. But if we have a long slow decline in production with slowly rising prices—a bit like being in a war situation—none of the price change points would be sufficient to cause riots in the streets. So, that’s what I hope.

And remember in the meantime, when people say “peak oil is dead,” ask them “has the price gone down?”

[Tanada]

Peak or not, people see those goofy stories about trillions of barrels of oil in the ground and think it will all be made available for $3.00 per barrel. It costs $80.00 and up for much of the current oil supply, and as more of the cheaper stuff depletes the average only has one direction to go. Either you pay more, or they will produce less. Basic common sense, why is it so hard for some people to understand?