[Graeme]

Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.

Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year:

[M_B_S]

Mary Christmas ?!

We Peak Oiler allways knew the truth.

Germanys new government stops the way to 100% renewable energy so Germany as the whole world is doomed.

Also Germanys Leadership has failed, so a dark, hot hungry and brutal future is all upon us.

All you and your family can do is prepare for the worst.

Not the gates of haven will open but the gates to hell.

An advice from an old man PEAK OILER

I lost my hope!

M_B_S

OIL GAS URANIUM and COAL are the Problems not the solutions!

Endless growth on earth is not possible.


Ford Motor Boss:

There will be 2 BILLION cars 2030 on the roads!

[Pops]

A really great article Graeme.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Greater reliance upon tight oil resources produced using hydraulic fracturing will exacerbate any rising trend in global average decline rates, since these wells have no plateau and decline extremely fast - for example, by 90% or more in the first 5 years."

[Timo]

Maybe the LENR will save us.

On a more serious note, it's probably just wishful thinking, but the global climate negotiations going on might be better served in focusing on new methods of energy production, rather than the existing effects of energy generation. How do we, as a planet, survive economically on reduced ffs that our economies depend on? If the writing is on the wall, then a transition is inevitable. Instead of negotiating reduction in CO2, start negotiating investments in the next technology in energy production. The same results will be achieved with a more promising future. New energy sources will be produced to fuel our economies, and they'll be less greenhouse intensive, to boot. Time on both fronts is running out.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

[Lore]

That's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

Households spending bigger share of income on fuel and other essentials
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ons-energy

U.S. household expenditures for gasoline account for nearly 4% of pretax income
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831#

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'c')heap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')hat's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'c')heap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'c')heap oil disappeared back in the 70's.

[Quinny]

Some quotes IMHO just simply need highlighting!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��We’re like a cage of lab rats that have eaten all the cornflakes and discovered that you can eat the cardboard packets too. Yes, we can, but… Tight oil may reach 5 or even 6 million b/d in the US, which will hugely help the US economy, along with shale gas. Shale resources, though, are inappropriate for more densely populated countries like the UK, because the industrialisation of the countryside affects far more people (with far less access to alternative natural space), and the economic benefits are spread more thinly across more people. Tight oil production in the US is likely to peak before 2020. There absolutely will not be enough tight oil production to replace the US’ current 9 million b/d of imports.”

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')hat's because the cost of energy has remained relatively cheap in relation to income, but that is rapidly changing.

[Graeme]

Pops, Thanks for the link to the journal. My thoughts on the paper are about the timing of peak oil and the time for decline in production. To those in the industry, a plateau is old hat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roduction profiles of individual fields tend to be similar, with larger fields having longer plateaus achieved in part by drilling new wells.

Post-plateau, the production from individual wells and fields typically declines at a constant rate (exponential decline) or at a falling rate (hyperbolic decline)

[AirlinePilot]

While decline and understanding it is important, I believe the real story is in the Global Net Export numbers. It does appear that something has changed with regard to the "paradigm". West Texas has a good handle on this and personally I believe this is one of the main contributors to why oil remains at its current price level. As others have noted fracking is making things look ok right now and will soften the blow of decline, but GNE is where you will SEE IT FIRST.

I think it will be difficult to reverse the trends and momentum we are seeing there.

[Graeme]

AP, Thanks for the suggestion. I'll stick my neck out and state that we will fall off the plateau in 2023 because that's when the GNE falls to zero (see MBS figure here).

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Even Monte reacted appropriately when faced with higher prices. He bought a scooter! Economic stimuli gets to most of us, sooner or later.

post833047.html?hilit=scooter#p833047

[AirlinePilot]

Yep I own one..have for 4 years now. Its paid for itself at least once already in the fuel savings alone. The problem is im nothing more than a joke to most folks...even after the last price spike in gasoline. Folks just do not understand.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'c')an't stop ... the growth of suburbia

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')ep I own one..have for 4 years now. Its paid for itself at least once already in the fuel savings alone. The problem is im nothing more than a joke to most folks...even after the last price spike in gasoline. Folks just do not understand.