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Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization soon?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Fast Crash, Slow Crash, No Crash or Carhole?

Poll ended at Thu 08 Aug 2013, 10:46:15

Fast Crash
7
No votes
Slow Crash
33
No votes
No Crash
10
No votes
Carlhole
2
No votes
 
Total votes : 52

Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 17 Aug 2013, 13:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
Ibon, that would be refined ores, such as copper, brass, nickel, gold, and aluminum. Even the iron rust is a high-density iron ore. So the cost of living will not be a desperate search for new quality material, but rather of decommissioning, re-using the current infrastructure. Even old wood structures can be re-imagined for new uses. McMansion==Many goat sheds :P


Scavengers play an important role in any ecosystem. Next time a house fly or turkey vulture passes overhead or a dung beetle underfoot stop a moment and salute your brother.

This is some pretty humble pie for those who believe that cultural evolution or biological evolution is being driven by some unseen force toward ever more progress.

Applying our ingenuity as a scavenger will be the closing act of this chapter of being the Kudzu Ape.

Goats over populated on an island do end up chewing on newspapers.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Pops » Sat 17 Aug 2013, 14:25:02

The rhyme between modern civilisation and ancient Rome is dependence on slaves.

As I understand, as slaves were used for more and more jobs, the poor, free Romans simply had less work available with which to make a living. Consequently, the state spent more and more for the upkeep of the increasingly poor citizenry – bread and circuses. Eventually the cost was too high and the state neglected the source of the slaves, the military. Of course by then it was too late to change and along came the big reset.

We are in exactly the same boat, the energy slaves do more and more and the government is forced to spend more and more to pacify those with no job: SNAP & DHS/NSA are our version of Bread and Circuses. I suppose there was a point the Romans saw the writing on the wall and went to war in a last ditch effort to shore up their non-negotiable way of life just as we have.

In each case, the people with the power are more than happy with how things are, so instead of attempting to transition away from the slave, they fiddle.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 17 Aug 2013, 15:11:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') suppose there was a point the Romans saw the writing on the wall and went to war in a last ditch effort to shore up their non-negotiable way of life just as we have.
In each case, the people with the power are more than happy with how things are, so instead of attempting to transition away from the slave, they fiddle.


If you think about how collapse was experienced by some Roman land owner, in say, France, as the Western Empire collapsed, you can see how such a plan is the correct choice at each stage for that Roman. Every step along that path is incremental for most, except for the few that are actually killed by lawless raiders and such, most of the upper class experiences only a gradual reduction in available comforts or gradual increases in costs to accomplish tasks. The trader wants 5 silver coins instead of 2 for his bag of salt. A messenger has to take 4 armed escorts instead of 1 or 2. Roads don't cease to work, they just gradually deteriorate, each day's trip to market feels much like the day before's; but if honest memory served, they'd have to admit the trip was easier 20 years before.

For the peasant though, its much more grim; they can easily slip below the point where they can provide sufficient food calories for their family. They can't call up 4 armed escorts to walk with them into the market. Salt goes from expensive, to impossible luxury.

I see no reason to expect the collapse of our civilization to follow any other path; and what I observe currently, is consistent with this previous example. The wealthy are not doing badly at all. They do have to spend more of their power for safety and security, but otherwise, life proceeds along as it always has. For the unemployed guy that was making $30k / yr though; collapse is a relentless nightmare that just keeps on giving.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby careinke » Sun 18 Aug 2013, 18:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'A')re you aware of a single creditor of the US government which has not been paid its due ...
The folks who thought they were due to be paid in gold?

Like France.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby ~Mark~M~ » Mon 19 Aug 2013, 18:08:35

Ibon, I don't agree with you that we need to be awakened brutally. Normal people already suffer and loath this situation. I believe, it should be the ideal, humane realization of our values and what we can have as space Civilization that can get us on the right track and going. Do you all agree that we should care about each other in society and put our potential to making greater things?

If we take all the general population, collapse may be gradual, dollar by dollar, person by person. Real collapse would be failure of large social and technological systems. Simple people may feel where it goes, but they can't change it. However, those who run the things, the mentioned rulers, know well about the situation.
I'll tell you a secret, there is the world power system that ran the things during known history. But we all are one humankind, if there was offered the future where humankind become fully developed Civilization where we could have anything, wouldn't our human nature demand us to live?
So, the question is if we can have such a vision of the future, or, only a post-apocalyptic nightmare?

As for roman citizens, I'd say they became too spoiled to run institution of civilized society and drowned themselves in chaos, luxury and fighting of everybody with everybody.

As for scavenging, do you know how much platinum (catalyst) was dispersed into atoms around the world? Yet, there is whole new wealth of platinum near Earth? Progress doesn't know crawling picking crumbs, it knows only stride forward.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 19 Aug 2013, 18:37:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('~Mark~M~', 'I')bon, I don't agree with you that we need to be awakened brutally. Normal people already suffer and loath this situation. I believe, it should be the ideal, humane realization of our values and what we can have as space Civilization that can get us on the right track and going. Do you all agree that we should care about each other in society and put our potential to making greater things?

.


OK, I'll be the goat on this one.

NO!

Humanity is not the greatest invention of the universe. Other creatures have as much right to be here as we do. In fact I would very much prefer a world with a lot less of us and a lot more of them.

What we make greater is our population. All of our advances are measured against how well they retain or grow our population.

Why the hell is it so great to have a huge population?

I think something on the order of 1 billion would sufficient.

Now do this, look up and read Bertrand Russels little essay title "In Praise of Idleness". Then ask yourself why we can't be satisfied with a 20 hour workday, why can't we find something meaningful to do with our spare time?

The answer is that we are genetically programmed to WORK, to produce, to grow.

It is the dominate religion of the anthropocene.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 19 Aug 2013, 19:56:26

We've been over this in the past; could we, should we change?- yes- will we?- not before it's too late. Why?- economic (&political) momentum & inertia, social ignorance & marginalization.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 19 Aug 2013, 20:54:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('~Mark~M~', 'I')bon, I don't agree with you that we need to be awakened brutally. Do you all agree that we should care about each other in society and put our potential to making greater things?


Mark M,

First I invite you (and everyone else) to take a moment to watch this video from a clip of this documentary called Samsara

http://www.trueactivist.com/gab_gallery ... peechless/

Now to answer your question. This is currently where we are putting our potential. This is currently how we are caring about each other and other creatures.

Don't analyze this video with your head. Just let the images incubate awhile and then tell me how without brutal consequences we will ever change course.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 20 Aug 2013, 07:59:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Now do this, look up and read Bertrand Russels little essay title "In Praise of Idleness". Then ask yourself why we can't be satisfied with a 20 hour workday, why can't we find something meaningful to do with our spare time?

The answer is that we are genetically programmed to WORK, to produce, to grow.

It is the dominate religion of the anthropocene.


Yes, we are genetically programmed to tinker. Capitalism has harnessed this to the extreme we see in that video link I just referenced.

Can consequences decouple work from "growth" and "progress" as currently defined?

Tinkering can be applied to meaningful pursuits in both work and spare time. Spending spare time gardening as an example. Or spending all of your spare time surviving in a degraded environment.

We are spiritually impoverished. Can consequences reduce cynicism and re awaken a sense of the sacred toward our planet and each other?

Mark M is asking this very noble question, suggesting we need to care for each other and our planet. He is right and accurate, but we respond with pure cynicism to his question because it is truly a naive sentiment with an overpopulated planet and the power of the current status quo. But it is ultimately the right question to ask.

What can cause a seismic shift of values to bring this about? I suggest brutally humbling consequences from biosphere feedback, provoking a die-off and sharp reduction of consumption. This is where worshipping the Overshoot Predator is the focus. Worshipping the forces that will act like chemo therapy to rid the planet of a cancerous paradigm that Kudzu Ape is currently pursuing.

When I look at the images in that video this is for me a cultural cancer that has become global.

I have no problem embracing forces and consequences acting as chemotherapy to extinguish these cultural norms. Sure, it means population reduction in the billions, suffering and death to countless souls. One way that helps to put this into perspective is to ask, when watching the factory workers in the video on one side of the chain, or the Costco shopper on the other, if this quality of life is worth preserving. If not then it is not hard to embrace the Overshoot Predator even though you are embracing something that puts your own existence on the line..... I guess it is hard to embrace then, isn't it.

That is the whole reason we are taking this ride to the point of biosphere feedback, because we cannot self regulate.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 21 Aug 2013, 07:55:17

Ibon,

Largely agree but we are off a bit on work vs tinker.

Yes, we do both....

kudzu ape is tool ape.

But kudzu ape is also termite ape, living in our own special mounds, with our own special classifications of worker, care taker, warrior, and queens.

Good video.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Timo » Wed 21 Aug 2013, 09:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('~Mark~M~', 'I')bon, I don't agree with you that we need to be awakened brutally. Normal people already suffer and loath this situation. I believe, it should be the ideal, humane realization of our values and what we can have as space Civilization that can get us on the right track and going. Do you all agree that we should care about each other in society and put our potential to making greater things?

.


OK, I'll be the goat on this one.

NO!

Humanity is not the greatest invention of the universe. Other creatures have as much right to be here as we do. In fact I would very much prefer a world with a lot less of us and a lot more of them.

What we make greater is our population. All of our advances are measured against how well they retain or grow our population.

Why the hell is it so great to have a huge population?

I think something on the order of 1 billion would sufficient.

Now do this, look up and read Bertrand Russels little essay title "In Praise of Idleness". Then ask yourself why we can't be satisfied with a 20 hour workday, why can't we find something meaningful to do with our spare time?

The answer is that we are genetically programmed to WORK, to produce, to grow.

It is the dominate religion of the anthropocene.


I'll be the next goat. On the whole, i totally agree with you, until you bring in the genetic programming of humanity to work, to produce, to grow. That was true, up until WWII, but being an Xer, i grew up in an era where Boomer's little brothers and sisters were demonized. (For any verification on that, check out the vast media culture-shifts between the era of Leave it to Beaver and Damien. Children were good and innocent until Boomer's gained control of our media.) But, my larger point is that the "American Dream" went out the window with the Boomers, and instead of an ethic of hard work and collective sacrifice for the greater good, it became an entitlement, where Boomer's naturally expected the world to be handed to them on a silver platter. Progress requires sacrifice and hard work, and the current generation in control has completely forgotten that very basic fact. Does anyone challenge the very distinct cultural differences between Boomer's, Xers, the Pepsi Generation, and Millenials? Boomers took too much for granted. Now they've gutted the future for their little brothers and sisters, for their children, and their grandchildren. I think kids today realize the consequences of the world they'll be left to work with, and yes, work will be required like humanity has never worked before. Survival will become much more difficult. I suppose some remnants of civilization might find hope in Antartcica. Temperatures might become tolerable there, and even sufficient to grow some foods. As for the rest of the planet, who needs to go to Mars? Just sail acrss the Magellan Straight, and there it is!
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 21 Aug 2013, 16:05:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'I')'ll be the next goat. On the whole, i totally agree with you, until you bring in the genetic programming of humanity to work, to produce, to grow. That was true, up until WWII, but being an Xer . . .
Newfie is not referring to culture wars, meme's, generational conflict or philosophy. We are as yeast. Our DNA programs us to consume, conflict, reproduce, and die. While I believe certain individuals (mostly me :razz: ) are capable of acting rationally, the vast majority are easy prey to the psychopaths among us, who are always always always always always alway playing their own cards (see our own troll here, immune to public pressure, rebuttal, shunning). If we weren't pack, tribal-animals by nature (by the same DNA) we might collectively have the confidence to resist their influence. But sadly we appear not to be.


Yes, you got it.

This was given more credence to me by E.O. Wilson in his recent book The Social Conquest of Earth.

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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 09:11:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')bon,



But kudzu ape is also termite ape, living in our own special mounds, with our own special classifications of worker, care taker, warrior, and queens.

Good video.



I think Newfie brings up a great point that the vast majority of humans will follow like ants or termites. This is probably something deeper than the mechanized conditioning we have seen progressing during the industrial revolution, and indicates actually the pliability of the masses of humans to do even the most demeaning of work.... or to follow the most dehumanizing of ideologies...... or to succumb to exploitive institutional social structures whether it be government, religious, or economic.

The flip side of this is that the masses can also align with what is still only a theoretical environmentally benign social or political or religious cultural institution assuming one evolves after a correction. Why that is likely to happen is worth elaborating and I will spend the rest of this post trying to outline this.

Maybe some of us have checked out on the top of mountains or rural retreats or within our heads in urban areas but any real hope for humans will be to harness the masses of Termite Apes as Newfie aptly names us toward values that are environmentally benign. If however the 1-3 % of us as strong individuals able to see the bigger picture project our own self actualization on to the rest of humanity and try from there to project trends going forward then we are hopelessly misguided. We have to understand future social evolution from Newfie's point that the vast majority of humans will never, in any age, want to open the aperture of their individuality much beyond following like termite ape.... this is at least my interpretation of what Newfie is saying and I wait any corrections or clarifications. Another name for this human could be Tow The Line Ape. And our future will depend on what institutions in the future do the towing.

Another way to look at how powerful Termite Ape is can be seen when we consider that in all these decades of unbelievable wealth and affluence how pitifully few of the masses actually did take pathways to self-actualization, creativity, original thinking. How many instead bought into the religion of materialism hook line and sinker? Look at the video and ask yourself how many in the BRIC nations (ie.China) are following this even more faithfully than what we name the more “individualized” west. Termite Ape is powerfully fixed to conservative messages of group cohesion and conformity regardless of race or culture or socio economics. Facebook?!

Secularism and the sheer crushing weight of reason and technology was long believed in the scientific community to eventually conquer ignorance and eventually kill faith and religions. But it didn't. There has always been a great fallacy in the secular and environmental movement that at some point the masses will awaken. The vast majority of humans do not want to be awake, they would prefer having the script and menu spelled out.

This for me points to a huge underappreciated force coming out of the consequences of biosphere feedback which is the renaissance of faith, the sense of the sacred and the survivors of a die-off willing to align themselves with a mythology that germinates from the ashes like jack pine seedlings. Think about this a moment. What makes a Termite Ape agree to work in a factory like in that video? It comes from a deeply conservative place that this path is what will lead to security and hopes of progressing materially. I postulate that the conditions following the consequences of biosphere feedback will strengthen this conservatism and make the surviving masses more willing and compliant to hang on to whatever social institution follows. And this social institution will not be based on secular reason alone. That is one of the reasons why on a lot of my recent posts I bring up words like worship and sacred.

Following the cynicism of our current economic system, the consequences of which can be seen in that video, will one day lead to overshoot collapse. We all know this. 7 going to 9 billion based on the foundation of further exploitation on non renewable resources? Do you think the masses will persist afterwards in being faithful to the secular religion of progress and technology and materialism when the ruins of this system will be laid to waste? That will be the death of cynicism and the birth of what I see as spiritual renaissance and sacredness toward our planet. The Overshoot Predator will be a jealous god that will demand respect. Just look at the wrath we awakened?

This cohesion and conformity of Termite Ape has been harnessed toward materialism and the pursuit of growth progress and acquiring stuff and consumerism. But it can be theoretically harnessed toward a foundation of sacred worship toward our planet and biosphere especially when whipped into compliance by external consequences. But not one day before The Overshoot Predator does his work. In this sense the Overshoot Predator can be seen as the coming messiah, being the agent of destruction and the agent of transition from cynicism to sacred worship toward our planet at the same time.

Ultimately it really doesn’t matter what kind of values the human society has following the collapse and die-off from the point of view of carrying capacity, at least initially, since we will fall back to carrying capacity not because of cultural transition but from the work of the Overshoot Predator. I am just suggesting that the complete failure of secular materialism will be laid bare by the Overshoot Predator and will leave a void that will need to be filled and if the pendulum of history is any guide we can expect faith and the sense of the sacred to re-emerge from the ashes of cynicism.

In the meantime we cynically march forward toward the days of reckoning.

And remember something. Those of us very very few individuals standing on the outside looking on to this process are at the moment largely irrelevant. Some of us in a future generation may be priests and shamans but that is another chapter. In the meantime though we can already start to worship the coming messiah, the Overshoot Predator. A creator by default not by design. I don’t need secular proof of his existence. I have faith and know him.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Aug 2013, 14:49:17

Ibon,

I take no quibbles with your understanding. You got it.

But, being in the small minority with a larger view, it is cold comfort to know you are right.

Cassandra.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ppears that she has made a promise to Apollo to become his consort, but broke it, thus incurring his wrath: though she has retained the power of foresight, no one will believe her predictions.


I find such a future to difficult to behold. I need to find something positive to look forward to. Perhaps we will be hit by a meteor or a nuclear war which will alter our future. At this point we are just playing for luck.

We do have our bug out spots, and the boats to get there. In the meantime I try to entertain myself. And I am deeply constrained by my Wife, who mostly shares my beliefs but who herself is constrained by conventional norms.

At this moment I'm on a train to CT to get my boat. It broke down and needed repairs. Tomorrow I start a 3 day trip to finish bringing her home for the winter. Ive done about 1,500 miles this summer, and thats a bit. Then I'll busy myself with sand blasting, painting, rewiring the mast, replacing standing rigging and the like. Simple mechanical chores have their charm and occupy the mind bringing some blessed relief.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby sparky » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 04:16:35

.
newfie "I find such a future to difficult to behold "

Everything will be fine , there will be some unpleasantness probably
but it's par for the course ,do today today's chore , love as much as you can
there is no future just a succession of present and when you've got a good one , enjoy

The rest can be taken for granted
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 08:39:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
newfie "I find such a future to difficult to behold "

Everything will be fine , there will be some unpleasantness probably
but it's par for the course ,do today today's chore , love as much as you can
there is no future just a succession of present and when you've got a good one , enjoy

The rest can be taken for granted



Now is the time to fully enjoy the moment. In fact, the moment is more poignant and delicious than at any time I can remember in my lifetime.

I can remember white water canoeing. I did 600km on the Churchhill River in northern Saskatchewan when I was 23 years old. After paddling calms waters we would approach a new set of rapids, that tightening of the gut that you feel before entering those first V''s. Sometimes a Bald Eagle overhead acting as talisman.

Funny how these days I am feeling the same rising sense of tension, the same tightening of the gut.

Or maybe it's just the caffeine :)
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby Lore » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 08:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
newfie "I find such a future to difficult to behold "

Everything will be fine , there will be some unpleasantness probably
but it's par for the course ,do today today's chore , love as much as you can
there is no future just a succession of present and when you've got a good one , enjoy

The rest can be taken for granted


This is one of the typical reactions to what amounts to a very serious problem. The "deer in the headlights" affect. A lot of people just can't get their heads around the issue so better to ignore it today and put it out of ones mind for as long as possible.

We would all love for the party to go on with no payback, but guess what, that ain't gonna happen.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Do you think there will be a collapse of civilization so

Unread postby diemos » Fri 23 Aug 2013, 11:42:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('~Mark~M~', '
')If we take all the general population, collapse may be gradual, dollar by dollar, person by person. Real collapse would be failure of large social and technological systems.


A lot of this is just a matter of perspective. To the person living through it, collapse may be an endlessly slow set of almost imperceptibly small changes. To the kid reading about it in his textbook 1000 years from now it will seem to have happened instantly.

The "collapse" of the roman empire took about 300 years. About 12 generations of people who were born, grew up, did stuff and then told their grandchildren, "You know, when I was kid things were a lot better." To which the kids would reply, "Yeah, yeah, sure grandpa."

You're never going to go to bed one night and then wake up to find Mad Max outside your door.
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