[Pops]

I always think it is interesting that these conversations only go to a point - collapse.

Then what?

Is it just die off and everyone pulls an Easter Island / Anastasi disappearing act?

Or is it more like the Mayans who came together for a while, maybe under the spell of a charismatic leader but after a while decided he shouldn't have all the fun sacrificing virgins so went back to the village life, eating bush meat and doing their own sacrifices?

Or is it a libertarian paradise where it's every man for himself and the height of accomplishment is a fleet of Toyota pickups with mounted M60s, all inscribed with the 24rd Psalm?

What is the "after"?

[~Mark~M~]

Very well continued, Tanada. As the whole Civilization we are losing our stride of progress and what we have cripples. Our latest inventions, indeed, more serve petty needs than higher purposes of advancement. It all depends on having an ideal of the future and building a social structure for it, including energetics. We don't have one, at least not a healthy one, but I believe we can have it.
You are just wrong about USSR, I know, I was born there.

Newfie, I don't believe that thinning the herd made people wealthier. Real wealth is not golden knick-knacks, but talents, labor and useful creations.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') always think it is interesting that these conversations only go to a point - collapse.

Then what?

Is it just die off and everyone pulls an Easter Island / Anastasi disappearing act?

Or is it more like the Mayans who came together for a while, maybe under the spell of a charismatic leader but after a while decided he shouldn't have all the fun sacrificing virgins so went back to the village life, eating bush meat and doing their own sacrifices?

Or is it a libertarian paradise where it's every man for himself and the height of accomplishment is a fleet of Toyota pickups with mounted M60s, all inscribed with the 24rd Psalm?

What is the "after"?

[Tanada]

Personally I see it like the history of Europe, fall of the western Roman Empire, dark age period for hundreds of years while nature resets the climate and environment, then a long slow build up to a state like 1850 America world wide.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Then what?

What is the "after"?

[Newfie]

I'm thinking fossils.

[ralfy]

These "refinements" require resource consumption that will definitely exceed bio-capacity as more people worldwide want more of the same. And the present middle class cannot count on the opposite taking place as their own income levels and returns on investment are dependent on more people worldwide buying more goods and services.

About the USSR and the U.S., try this video:

"The Road to World War 3"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hese "refinements" require resource consumption that will definitely exceed bio-capacity as more people worldwide want more of the same. And the present middle class cannot count on the opposite taking place as their own income levels and returns on investment are dependent on more people worldwide buying more goods and services.

About the USSR and the U.S., try this video:

"The Road to World War 3"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4

[Timo]

Adding to the refinements of existing ideas and technologies in modern vs older times, apply the same same question to the acquisition and production of energy, itself. Essentially, humanity has always burned some fossil fuel, or other combustible to generate energy. Hydro was/is a major advancement from that method, but yet it also has its own tremendous environmental downsides. Next, solar is a major advancement with far fewer downsides, and also wind. Fundamentally, i agree with where Tanada and Pops are going with their suggestions and questions, but if, again, IF there have been any major advancements beyond simple refinements to existing technologies over the past 3 millenia, then those advancements have been in the production of energy. The next advancement, hopefully, will be fusion, but on that note, be careful what you wish for. It may be possible, but i doubt any of us here today will live to see it.

But back to the original topic of this thread, collapse: What is it??? I'll start with my chrystal ball. We're seeing the ongoing early stages of WWIII right now. The "War on Terrorism" is a world war, and it's just as much about resource control (for westerners) as it is ideological and religious control (for religious extremists). Local conflicts for both of these reasons are increasingly common in the middle east, and they're spreading to northern and Central Africa. South America will be next. The US is tearing itself apart with internal ideological extremism, and the global economy is hanging by a thread. Absolutely no one, not one single country in the world today is physically capable of restoring order or any sense of sanity to domestic or global events, and the downward trend is accelerating. First up will be an economic collapse brought on by the evaporation of trillions of monies that existed only on someone's ledger. That collapse will be followed immediately by multi-national state's of emergency, and in some cases, martial law, in order to keep global panic under control. Ideological and religious extremists will use this opportunity to launch their arsenals to gain control in the vaccuum of any legitimate governing authority, and chaos ensues. This chaos will mean the end of the practice of medicine as we currently know it, which will lead to disease and another Black Death across the globe. The systems of agricultural production will also grind to a halt, meaning that everyone will be forced to fend for themselves. In essence, we have developed the technological abilities to destroy ourselves many times over, and by God, we are hell bent on doing just that.

Peace out.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Watched this during my morning coffee. You know, just another piece of the puzzle. The last 5 minutes about revolution being the answer is the same ideological playbook we have seen in all resistance movements against the "oppressor" during the past 100 years and therein lies the fallacy.

For there is no ideological shift not to speak of civil disobedience or armed resistance even remotely possible when you see that the "evil" of the petro dollar, federal reserve and all the other vested interests that keep us all in a state of inertia is already beginning and will eventually be dwarfed by the externalities that this system is creating. I am speaking of the impacts to our biosphere, consequences of our agricultural practices, resource depletion etc. It is from there that a revolution will be spawned. The masses will never, and I can state this emphatically, never, rise in resistance to a system, that although they may perceive as being rigged against them, is at the same time, equally understood to be what is maintaining whatever crumbs they are holding on to.

If a war would result as this video suggests it would be for me nothing more than a complimentary agent to the revolution that the Overshoot Predator is currently preparing.

From the point of view of a species on the verge of extinction today, allowing me the indulgence to give such a species the sentient capacity to understand the current state of affairs, what would be more threatening, what this video suggests or the sheer massive bulk of Kudzu Ape rapaciously plowing through the remaining intact ecosystems on the planet in an attempt to continue this invasive trajectory?

Do we really have the guts or integrity to face the real Revolution?

[Ibon]

When modern industrial civilization does collapse, so to will the cynicism that seems such an integral part of societies that have achieved wealth and affluence.

If cynicism collapses there is room for the sacred to emerge.

I thought of this just today as I woke up at 5am and saw the black star filled night turn deep blue as the first hint of dawn appeared. A blanket of mist far below in the valley.

I was reminded why I am here. And what is truly sacred about this brief mortal existence. These sentiments are no longer being cultivated in our modern world.

The societal disruptions that will occur from de industrialization brought about by resource constraints always focuses on the hardships and sufferings which of course are real when physical deprivation is in store.

Here is a question, will the collective society in coping with this become more cynical or will a sense of the sacred emerge. I am not naming any spiritual belief or religion here, more the receptivity and disposition toward sacredness which will emerge when the existential crisis follows the constraints.

I think therein lies one of the surprising possible shifts that can occur in the collective moving forward.

I love this planet. I love this earth. I sometimes am filled with a sense of bliss when witnessing what I witnessed this morning. Does reading this awaken scorn or cynical disdain or affinity?

[Pops]

I don't know, people are becoming more and more removed from nature, congregating in cities without stars or vistas of misty valleys. I live in the country, there is less and less to do here if you haven't 1,000 acres, I see that becoming more and more true as the population continues to grow and only intensive ag can feed it.

You''re thinking Thoreau, aside from the bit about "lives of quiet desperation..." I'm thinking more Dickens.

[Timo]

Before we get ahead of ourselves thinking about and predicting collapse, let's look back at previous civilizations to our own. Did the Roman Empire end from an economic collapse? Did the Mayans? The Greeks? Asia, as far as i know, hasn't had any functional collapse of any civilization (i could be wrong on that), but they are a far cry from the civilization that occupied most of Asia a thousand years ago. Did the Soviet Civilization collapse, or just change to a new form of governance? Civilization and governance are two different things, yet one cannot exist without the other. But governance can change while civilization continues. In the present context, what exactly are we talking about?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here was plenty of planet earth left at that time. Now there is not.

[Timo]

If we are indeed a landlocked civilization with no where else to go post collapse, well, rest assured. Elon Musk is going to Mars! Seriously! I can't recall the specific investors conference where he said this, but he literally sees the only viable future of humanity as leaving planet Earth, and spreading our oats elsewhere. That's his motivation behind SpaceX. And to that end, his creation of a reuseable rocket is key to the future of space exploration. The economics are staggaring. Perhaps a Hyperloop to Mars?

[~Mark~M~]

I liked Ibon's post. Of course, we will die off if we are just going to act like hungry insects, but I believe that human nature is more than that. Even more, I believe that we can change quite quickly if we have the spirit for it. In Soviet Russia we managed to go from a medieval country in chaos in 1917 to space super-power in forty years with one world war upon us. It's really about our spirit and the whole social system, so it becomes a topic of our morals and social development. (Just don't use Marxism, trust me.) So, I'd say, the question is what our system of values will be? What is the right social system for Civilization that can handle own planet and go to space for further horizons? How should we utilize oil to do not spend the remaining on grocery bags?
As a side note, I'm very skeptical about possible rebuilding after a collapse. It's not just our resources will be dispersed into dust and the biosphere will be half dead. For advancing Civilization we need abundance of oil, fertilizers, etc. that will be gone.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('~Mark~M~', ' ')It's really about our spirit and the whole social system, so it becomes a topic of our morals and social development. (Just don't use Marxism, trust me.) So, I'd say, the question is what our system of values will be? What is the right social system for Civilization that can handle own planet and go to space for further horizons? How should we utilize oil to do not spend the remaining on grocery bags?