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Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 13 Nov 2012, 21:56:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', 'I') grew up on a rural farm in se New England. Hereford cattle chickens etc... Conditioning has little to do with it.

Small rural towns are cities of a different kind, I don't like living in a skyscraper, but three and four story downtowns are extremely comfortable. Especially when the countryside is accessible and nearby. Lifestyle is what you make of it, town can be banal, but so can country.


Reading back over this with my Wife I see some of the definitional problem.

We live in a 3/4 story neighborhood but downtown is 30+ storied, eight blocks away. I drive 5 hours to go hunting.

To me what you describe is not a city, but a small town or neighborhood.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 10:26:06

Most new england cities fit this desciption, even Boston, for all its population, is more compact than san francisco. Sprawl is the true enemy. Cities require well defined edges to have an acceptable relationship with nature and the countryside.

im not suggesting Boston doesnt have a sprawl problem, it does, but it is certainly not five hours to go hunting, I would say 45 minutes to an hour tops to get through the suburbs to Inland massachusetts.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 11:34:33

Problem with tackling sprawl is that what is sprawl to some is a small city to others. Some people in my town do commute to Houston daily. On the other hand, both Houston and my town have existed since the 1800's, and there is, and always has been, substantial industry here. My example of Carthage is smaller, and is more ag focused, with food packaging and rail terminal for cargo shipment, but same idea. 40 miles from Shreveport, LA.

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Shreveport itself is a good example of well mixed urban, ag, single family homes, substantial cargo rail infrastructure etc.

Sprawl is sprawl I think because of automobiles; absent autos, the sprawl area doesn't die, but rather morphs into residential area of whatever town it is legally attached to. A few bad examples of giant housing blobs in the middle of nowhere, not withstanding, particularly referring to CA, Los Angeles and San Francisco the likely largest offenders.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 11:46:33

What you get in Washington, DC are what I call "mushroom towns." They build an extension to the Metro, put in a stop, and in 3 years you have a town of 250,000. You can see this when driving the beltway. Lumps of 30 story buildings here and there. All surrounded by suburbs.

When I drive to DC I can be 15 miles from my destination with 30 minutes to spare and be 2 hours late. Frequent occurrence.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 12:26:16

Yeah same in Miami, a place it would take me 20 minutes to get to in SE Mass. takes an hour or more in SE Fla.

Well, when i drove that is... Car free for 3 months :)
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 13:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'W')hat you get in Washington, DC are what I call "mushroom towns." They build an extension to the Metro, put in a stop, and in 3 years you have a town of 250,000. You can see this when driving the beltway. Lumps of 30 story buildings here and there. All surrounded by suburbs.


Hmm, I think I live in what you call a mushroom town. Your scale is way off. Just taking the county of Arlington, VA. The entire county has a population of 207,000. We have 11 metro stops in Arlington. I'll exclude the one at Arlington National Cemetary- because everyone there is dead. Each metro station area (MSA) has a population or a planned population of 10 to 20 thousand although the current populations are a little less. There are people that walk to the metro from further out than the official MSA but their numbers are small since you are definately into SFH by then. PDF of Major Planning Areas
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 13:53:50

Transit oriented development is supposed to be easier to access by train than by car. That's kind of the point. So I guess newfies inconvenience means it works lol. Do you take the train often dinopello?
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 15:53:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', 'T')ransit oriented development is supposed to be easier to access by train than by car. That's kind of the point. So I guess newfies inconvenience means it works lol. Do you take the train often dinopello?


Well the place Newfie can see "from the beltway" are not really transit oriented. They have bus service out there and Tysons will have 3 metro stations in a few years but they have a ways to go before anything out there is what I would consider 'walkable'. I used to work in Tysons and its a car-oriented nightmare - despite the fact that from the beltway, it might look like a 'city'. Driving around Arlington is easy and quick - providing that pedestrians and bicyclists don't freak you out - which it does to some unaccomstomed to driving beside bikes. Parking in some places can be tough but not compared to the city.

As to taking the train - I acually do not ride that often. I live about 1/4 mile from a station and work two stations away but I just walk to work (about a mile). Other than work I rarely leave the station area I live in as everything I need is here within walking distance. The exceptions would be to go to a sporting event or show in the city - and there I sometimes take the train, but a cab ride is only about $12 and if you are sharing a cab it is pretty attractive. The other exception is longer trips out of town. I do try to drive my car once a week somewhere at least or else the tires get flat spots. Our office is actually moving to about 4 miles away so I don't know what I'll do at that point. I don't like biking on the roads so I'll probably drive.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Pops » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 16:30:54

I think more along the lines of what is the purpose of the "non-rural" place, like so:

A town serves the rural area, a city is served by the rural area.

Once you get to the point that the focus is inward and divorced from the environment and ag, that is urban. Whether it's 10k or 10M doesn't really matter, the basis of individual urban survival is "The Economy" and specifically "a Job".

Obviously today the basis of most rural existence is a Job as well but I'm thinking once the oily sheen is removed.

Quibbling over whether it's a 20 minute streetwalk to a walmart parking lot or a 20 minute walk down the stairwell really doesn't matter much.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 18:24:16

OK D, you got off by an order of magnitude on population. But the point of the mushroom towns is still valid, as you note.

Essentially the entire NEC from DC to Boston is one huge urban area.

Recently reading about sea rise. I see Scientic American quoting Hansen as saying sea levels coul rise a much as 5 meters by 2100. That's about 16 feet in under 90 years or roughly 1.5 feet per decade. Assuming that is right for the moment, how would that effect livability in NYC, DC, Baltimore, Norfolk, Savana, Jacksonville, Miami, etc? What would be cost to protect those cities?

Perhaps, when picking a city to live in we should have a check list.
Abundent fresh water supplies, out of a drought zone
Sufficiently high above water that a 6 foot rise is tolerable...where are your sewer plants.
Close to agriculture, where food stuffs can be floated down river
Abundant renewable energy for heat and cooling...not coal, or nukes, or hydro
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 20:00:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think more along the lines of what is the purpose of the "non-rural" place, like so:

A town serves the rural area, a city is served by the rural area.



I think that that distinction may be the case now but that is not the way the system originally worked, and will work in the future.

You recall that there was a hierarchy of urban places and rural places in all pre-industrial pre-oil cultures going back thousands of years. After a fashion, The rural hamlet (a collection of farmhouses and perhaps a general store, grouped closely) was a more typical situation in pre industrial cultures than the far flung farmhouse.Spread out farmhouses, with the exception of villas which functioned as self-sufficient villages, were a largely American phenomenon, stemming from the availability of homestead land.(the relative stability of the PAX AMERICANA also made this system possible)

hamlets serve as a small scale safety, social net for the farmers, these are served by nearby villages where surrounding hamlets send their produce to be collected for market. larger towns concentrate the food and local handicrafts from the villages, and in turn redistribute these and their own products to the larger city.

Each level provides an expanded market, profit margin, and safety net for the settlements beneath. the city provides regional shipping and import/export opportunities that the smaller settlements cannot match, and in turn serve the lower villages with raw materials that cannot be found locally, sand for glass, copper for bronze, luxury goods, etc.

A pre/post oil society cannot exist without some sort of distributive economy. One can only survive so long in a farmstead before they start requiring support from a society at large. the hamlet-village-town-city system provided defense, resources, knowledge, and social support for tens of thousands of years.

there is no indication that it should not be a model to going forward as well.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Wed 14 Nov 2012, 20:42:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'O')K D, you got off by an order of magnitude on population. But the point of the mushroom towns is still valid, as you note.

Essentially the entire NEC from DC to Boston is one huge urban area.

Recently reading about sea rise. I see Scientic American quoting Hansen as saying sea levels coul rise a much as 5 meters by 2100. That's about 16 feet in under 90 years or roughly 1.5 feet per decade. Assuming that is right for the moment, how would that effect livability in NYC, DC, Baltimore, Norfolk, Savana, Jacksonville, Miami, etc? What would be cost to protect those cities?

Perhaps, when picking a city to live in we should have a check list.
Abundent fresh water supplies, out of a drought zone
Sufficiently high above water that a 6 foot rise is tolerable...where are your sewer plants.
Close to agriculture, where food stuffs can be floated down river
Abundant renewable energy for heat and cooling...not coal, or nukes, or hydro


Miami already regularly floods just from high tides during the full moon. This never happened historically.

NOTE: no rain had fallen in nearly a week when these photos were taken.... all tide
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 06:07:50

Sea water, I wouldn't want to buy a second-hand car there.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Lore » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 06:23:26

Sea levels have risen nearly a foot in some areas over the last hundred years. Wonder what the pictures of Miami will look like in the next fifty with an additional couple of feet?

On a side note, FEMA just announced that it's going to have to borrow more money to support its national flood insurance program.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 08:06:49

Born western PA raised Alice Springs NT, rural VIC, far north NSW, then a 'little further north each year'.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby lowem » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 10:28:01

Image

The figures on sea level rise are all over the place. A few inches over a decade here, a foot over a century there, all these seem insignificant in comparison. The big worry is still some kind of glacier melt tipping point, a time when things accelerate quickly. Inches per year instead of inches per decade. Perhaps faster. Will this happen? Who knows. It may be already happening. Look at the one about 70% of Venice getting flooded. Bits and pieces here and there, like that.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby anador » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 12:10:58

The ability of People to ignore such in-your-face unprecedented signs of looming change and future disaster is truly amazing, AMAZING! people in Miami drive through the tidewater and it only receives a couple chuckles as a side note by the well coiffed news anchors.

Law of previous investment I guess...
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby Pops » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 13:29:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think more along the lines of what is the purpose of the "non-rural" place, like so:

A town serves the rural area, a city is served by the rural area.



I think that that distinction may be the case now but that is not the way the system originally worked, and will work in the future.

Hmmm. You seem to have expanded on my point while saying it is wrong... maybe I don't get your point or didn't make mine. Let me try again.

The next step up the urban ladder from the small hamlet (farmer's bedroom community if you will) is the village or farm town that serves the countryside by trading what is produced from the natural resource; whether it is ag or fishing or mining or timbering or whatever, for what is produced in the factory. That is the way it's been since people settled down, right? The factory might have been a baker or a cobbler but you see my point?

As the size and or density of the urban space increased and became more and more remote from the natural resource, both physically and economically via middlemen, the inhabitants traded more and more with each other instead of with the producer/extractor of the natural resource. This is the newer part, there were big cities in the past but they weren't the rule.

I see that remoteness from the resource via layers of middlemen as the fundamental difference between urban and rural/rural oriented trading towns. In the context of the thread then, I don't see much difference between urban and sub-urban.
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Re: Cities > Suburbs for PeakOil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 15 Nov 2012, 13:32:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', '[')url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/339/36499308.jpg/]Image[/url]

The figures on sea level rise are all over the place. A few inches over a decade here, a foot over a century there, all these seem insignificant in comparison. The big worry is still some kind of glacier melt tipping point, a time when things accelerate quickly. Inches per year instead of inches per decade. Perhaps faster. Will this happen? Who knows. It may be already happening. Look at the one about 70% of Venice getting flooded. Bits and pieces here and there, like that.

:lol: Most of Venice is under water all the time, it's a city of canals FFS!

Also Venice is sinking rather than sea levels rising.
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