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Page added on February 24, 2019
Global Population Decline And Economic Growth
Rising population was thought to be bad for our standard of living, with classic books such as Limits to Growth and Population Bomb projecting fewer resources per person and environmental collapse. A new book, Empty Planet, makes the forecast that world population will hit a peak and then decline. The authors take this as positive in general, with some challenges along the way. I want to focus on one downside of less population: fewer one-in-a-million people.
The old pessimists made very poor forecasts. Famine did not kill millions of people. The air in developed countries got cleaner, not dirtier. The world produced more food, not less. The prices of oil and other commodities did not soar persistently. The pessimists missed how technological improvement would enable the world to grow more food, use fewer finite resources per unit of production, and improve environmental quality all at the same time. Those technological improvements didn’t just happen, but were the result of people finding better ways to do things. The green revolution in agriculture is a good example, and owes much to one great scientist, Norman Borlaug. Behind many of the great innovations of the past century lie one person with brains, vision and drive.
There are many smart people in the world. Some, but not all, are also creative. And some of these, but not all, are highly energetic and ambitious in their goals. At the extreme, we have superstars in science, engineering, business and the arts who are one-in-a-million in developing valuable innovations. These people produce new ideas that millions of other people can use. This is a huge point: the benefits of the creative geniuses are enjoyed by the rest of us.
Nobel laureate William Nordhaus looked at business innovators and concluded that they were able to capture only two percent of the total social benefits of their innovations. The other 98 percent of the benefit was spread across consumers and workers. The whole world benefits from the great innovators.
At first glance, more population seems good, because with a larger population we’ll have more one-in-a-million people. But some of our one-in-a-millions never achieve their potential.
Consider a smart, creative, persistent person born in China in 1950. She was most likely born in a poor, rural province (where a majority of China’s population lived at that time). She had limited educational opportunities. She had to survive the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward and the displacements of the Cultural Revolution. She probably could not fulfill her potential. And the same goes for people in many other less developed countries. Much of the world denied opportunities to women, and various minorities were discriminated against in different countries. Add in challenges faced by gays and others who didn’t match dominant stereotypes, and the world clearly missed many of the potential gains possible from one-in-a-million people.
The economic progress of poorer countries, combined with liberalization of social attitudes in many countries, enables more superstars to achieve their potential. That is now helping the world progress. In this way, economic progress starts a virtuous circle in which those with superstar potential have a better opportunity to succeed, leading to even more economic progress. With economic progress usually comes educational progress.
Education is part of the broadening of opportunity that helps the superstars achieve their potential. Education also has a very large impact on population growth: More educated women prefer to have fewer children. One of the Empty Planet authors was interviewed by Wired and said, “We polled 26 countries asking women how many kids they want, and no matter where you go the answer tends to be around two.” They cite formal education as a big factor, and also the informal education that comes from better communication through smartphones and Internet access.
With lower birth rates, we’ll produce fewer one-in-a-millions, but we’ll nurture them better in terms of nutrition, education and job opportunities. Opportunity will spread outward from males of the majority ethnicity to all (or at least most) of the world’s population.
The long-term growth of the world’s standard of living depends on the interplay of these two forces. The lower population growth that seems likely is a negative when viewed as a simple numbers game, but not so bad when nurture is taken into account. We’ll know definitively in 50 or 100 years.
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122 Comments on "Global Population Decline And Economic Growth"
JuanPee sock puppet on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:56 am
Stupid Juanpussy doing the sock puppet BS. Go fuck yourself juanpee
Truth Buster on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:27 am
The real JuanP on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 9:09 am
Don’t let the fake juanpee Truth Buster BS fool you. Juanpee is a conman and a fake. His comments from the past tell his story. LUNATIC
JuanP on Thu, 30th Jun 2016 4:56 pm
I think I could use my antisocial, psychopathic, sociopathic skills to convince people to vote for Trump. I can be very convincing when I want and I am excellent at manipulating people.
JuanP on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 5:40 am
…then you simply have a higher opinion of humans than I do. But what can I do? I am after all an admitted antisocial misanthrope. I just think most people suck!
JuanP on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 10:58 am
I stopped caring about humanity’s future a long time ago once I realized it was a waste of my time and energy. Now I think that it would be best for life on Earth if we ceased to exist as a species.
JuanP on Wed, 14th Sep 2016 9:59 pm
I struggle with the fact that I belong to the same species; I find myself emotionally and intellectually incapable of accepting the fact. That is why I consider myself a sui generis individual rather than a human animal.
JuanP on Sun, 26th Jun 2016 12:22 am
As far as I am concerned human beings are a bunch of arrogant and retarded ignorant fools and they deserve what’s coming. Call me selfish if you want, I don’t give a fuck!
JuanP on Fri, 15th May 2015 11:21 am
I did therapy for over a decade and most of it was a waste, but I had one therapist for a year who understood my issues and that helped, though I am still thoroughly screwed up.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Dec 2015 6:57 am
They make me smile and happy and give me a brief respite from my cronic and acute depression.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:19 pm
I have suffered from cronic and acute clinical depression for most of my life, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 8:53 am
I was just telling my wife yesterday that I would very willingly give my arms, legs, tongue, eyes, ears, nuts, and dick to experience life like normal people do for just one hour to know what it feels like. I have been a seriously depressed realist since I have a memory. My first memory of my life is of leaning against a tree alone in my kindergarten’s playground looking at all the other kids playing, thinking how stupid their behavior was, and wondering why I wasn’t like them. I basically don’t interact with normal people anymore. They have nothing to offer me and I don’t want to give them anything.
I am back, bitches! I just got back from a surfing vacation in Costa Rica. I am recharged and refreshed, and ready to continue fucking with the Exceptionalist and his multiple personalities for the foreseeable future.
Truth Buster on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:08 am
Naturally, DavySkum reverts to personal attacks and insults since his arguments and his Republicon party are intellectually and morally bankrupt.
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 11:56 am
We all thank you Davy, for taking the time out of your hectic schedule to search through five years of comments to find those nine posts by JuanP.
I’ll be the first to admit, I agree with much of what he said.
I have to ask you though. Are you one of those ‘normal‘ people that JuanP was talking about Davy? It sure sounds to me like you are.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:40 pm
Juan,P, so you’re familiar with the Grey Ghost?
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 5:29 pm
Looks like I didn’t miss any relevant comments while I was seeping. Just sock puppets slinging shit at each other. Maybe one intelligent, mature comment in 100. Ah well, today is another day. Sunny and warm here in the land of eternal summer on this first day of March.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 6:52 pm
makato ,we didn’t miss anything from you while you were sleeping so don’t talk all high and mighty. You will smell up the board tonight with your dirty diaper comments.
NathanPhillipsAKAfmr-paultard on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 7:33 pm
makato
ur a sad sad aswange
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:45 pm
Davy,
Fuck off and go away.
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 9:19 pm
Davy it is your shit that “smells up the board”. That is all you have to offer. Nothing intelligent or mature. Your above comment proves it, as always.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:39 pm
makato, when one my of my wifes left me and filed a restraining order against me, she left two cases of Febreeze Fresh-Harvest Pumpkin air fresheners. I plan on spraying my cellphone and my mom’s computer with it every day.
Thats not a threat. It’s a promise.
dumbass
JuanPee identity theft on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:50 am
Not Davy
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:39 pm
Juanpee sock on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:51 am
This is Juanpee
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:45 pm
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 5:17 am
Splintering in the fabric of globalization with tiering of economies.
“Zimbabwe Money Transfer Agents Are Running Out Of Cash Dollars”
https://tinyurl.com/yy9cskm5 Authored by Garikai Dzoma via TechZim.com
“When you see the list of things Zimbabwe imports it’s hard for you not to wonder: Is there something this country does not import? I mean we import everything from razor blades to matches. Now you can add another thing to the list: USD currency. Yes, we import those flashy dollar bills and most of them come from South African banks. Unfortunately due to something called de-risking all South African banks have either terminated access to this cash or have given notice that they will no longer be supplying Zimbabwean based banks/businesses with USD cash.”
“What is de-risking According to World Bank: Global financial institutions are increasingly terminating or restricting business relationships with remittance companies and smaller local banks in certain regions of the world – a practice that is called “de-risking.” de-risking is indeed happening in pockets around the world – but its effects are unevenly distributed, with some regions more affected than others. Smaller countries with limited financial markets are particularly vulnerable to de-risking practices, and we are seeing evidence of this, notably in the Caribbean region. …and why are South African banks doing it ( lots of paragraphs where I am speculating) All the banks seem to be saying that there is a risk associated with dealing with MTAs and Zimbabwe’s banking institutions. According to the World Bank de-risking is happening because banks are weighing the cost and benefits of maintaining these accounts/relationships and coming to the conclusion that they are not worth the trouble.”
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 5:29 am
“Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet”
https://tinyurl.com/yyfxdfvm Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com
“Is Germany already in a ‘technical’ recession? These economists think so Investors are worried that a global slowdown led by China could begin to sap U.S. growth, but it’s Europe that’s looking a little sickly at the moment. Expectations that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could post a second consecutive quarter of falling gross domestic product were on the rise after a dismal reading on November industrial production last week, which showed a 1.9% fall, defying a forecast for a 0.3% rise. “Industrial production data was a proper disappointment this month. Our German GDP tracker has deteriorated to minus 0.1% [quarter-on-quarter]. This would be the second consecutive [quarter-on-quarter] GDP contraction, meaning Germany could now be in a technical recession,” wrote economists Evelyn Herrmann and Gilles Moec at Bank of American Merrill Lynch, in a Monday note (see chart below). Germany’s slowdown is attributable in part to slowing activity in China, the economists said. And concerns about China are certainly on the rise thanks to homegrown headwinds and the continued trade battle with the U.S. What does all this mean? Mainly that despite the recent bounce in US financial asset prices, the Fed didn’t succeed in stabilizing the real economy. With the major countries pretty much all slowing down, corporate profits will likely fall this year. Falling corporate profits tend not so support record-high share prices. And the longer the slowdown continues the bigger the risk that stock investors will catch on and panic, taking us back to the flash bear market of late 2018. Then it gets interesting. Realizing that words have failed, the Fed will be forced to stop promising and start delivering. So the second act of this play will be not just a pause but a reversal of last year’s tightening. But this won’t work either. A modest reduction in interest rate cuts and slight increase in asset purchases will buy, at most, another two-month pop in share prices, followed by another realization that the economy is still weakening, followed by yet another, probably much bigger stock market plunge. Eventually, we’ll settle into a permanent state of ever-increasing QE, zero-to-negative interest rates and every imaginable kind of fiscal stimulus. A simple way to gauge our place on this path is the price of gold. When Act Two (gradually falling interest rates, modest QE) is implemented, gold should bounce back up to around $2,000/oz. Once Act Three (massive, permanent QE, NIRP, bailouts for bankrupt states and cities) is in full swing, gold should pass $5,000 on its way to infinity.”
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 5:38 am
More dead carp in the Chinese economy:
“There’s No Money” – Has China’s Shadow-Debt Reckoning Finally Arrived?”
https://tinyurl.com/y4ue3jxr Zero Hedge
“Months before Beijing abandoned its deleveraging plans and approved a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan credit injection (including the “shadow” credit that the government had vowed to curb) – which, as we pointed out at the time, resembled the January 2016 “Shanghai Accord” intervention (when Beijing famously intervened to stop global stock markets from careening off a cliff) – a team of S&P credit analysts warned in an October report that China’s debt burden might be much larger than previously believed. Against a backdrop of soaring corporate defaults, the team from S&P warned that investors could safely tack on another ~40% of debt/GDP to China’s total (with even more likely hidden from view) after a careful analysis of a new source of shadow debt being tapped by local governments to further their development plans. These Local Government Financing Vehicles, or LGFVs, represented “an iceberg with titanic credit risks” as local officials had increasingly turned to these sources of shadow financing to finance development projects while bureaucrats in Beijing struggled to turn off the credit taps. Now that Beijing has reckoned with the idea that now is not the time to try and contain the country’s massive debt load, even as the percentage of bad debt balloons, it increasingly appears that these measures might be too little, too late for investors who financed these LGFVs, as the Wall Street Journal revealed in a report about how a local government in China’s impoverished Southern had caused a stir by stiffing its creditors after racking up a debt pile – largely through these LGFVs – equivalent to roughly three times the government’s annual revenue. When a group of wealthy investors traveled to Sanhe to confront the local government, they were swiftly rebuffed, leaving them little recourse to recover their money. Meanwhile, many of the buildings that their money helped to finance stood half-finished.”
“The proliferation of private funds and other money-raising channels for local governments makes it difficult for economists and for Beijing to track the total amount of borrowings. Official figures pegged the sum of local and central government debt at 29.95 trillion yuan ($4.457 trillion) in 2017, roughly 36% of the economy. Off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments are estimated to be nearly just as much, at 23.6 trillion yuan by 2017, according to Zhang Ming, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. When this hidden debt is factored in, he said, total government debt is about 67% of the economy. But the proportion is much higher in some places, such as less-developed areas trying to catch up, and Mr. Zhang’s estimates don’t capture all borrowings, especially those involving private funds outside banking channels.”
peakyeast on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 5:20 am
I am with Antius here. There are a couple of people here with very little self-control who should be reaching out for help with their mental problems.
There is no questions about it: Antius is in the top tier of commenters here and the squabbling fools at the bottom tier.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 5:45 am
“There is no questions about it: Antius is in the top tier of commenters here and the squabbling fools at the bottom tier.”
Where does that put you and your BS, peak? Sometimes you say some wingding shit that is not worth respect. You are a serious anti-American biased individual furthermore. Don’t throw rocks in a glass house.
peakyeast on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 6:20 am
Those 1-5 comments a month I make doesn’t ruin the debate – the squabbling fools does.
Putting up a vague and irrelevant strawman does not strengten your POV – whoever you are.
Btw. you can ramble on it will not elicit any further responses – I am not letting myself being dragged down to your level.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 6:37 am
It’s impossible to be dragged down to my level peak.
I’m as low as it gets. Pure scum.
JuanPee identity theft on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 7:54 am
Not Davy
Davy on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 6:37 am
Davy on Sat, 2nd Mar 2019 8:01 am
“Those 1-5 comments a month I make doesn’t ruin the debate – the squabbling fools does.”
Peak, get a grip, this is an unmoderated forum with lunatics lose. One of them is your friend clogged that has taken this site and made it is bully pulpit. Then we have the mentally unstable juanPee who has decided to censor me with any means possible. I am not going to be censored so I fight back. I would like to see a minimum of moderation. I am fine with this. We need to stop juanpees with their dirty behavior. We need to stop people like MOB that take over this board for political purposes with non-stop shit. Makato needs to scale back his caustic anti-Americanism and promotion of conflict. I will follow suit. I have no problem changing. I have offered to ignore a variety of people. Yet, they have no interest in this. This is how extremism operates they thrive on conflict. So peak grow the fuck up. You should know this anyway.
“Putting up a vague and irrelevant strawman does not strengten your POV – whoever you are.”
Read the above Mr. Whiner.
“Btw. you can ramble on it will not elicit any further responses – I am not letting myself being dragged down to your level.”
Good, go hide for a month it won’t affect the intellectual level here.