Dear colleagues, we are having an interesting discussion on how to stop climate change and I think I could add some thoughts of mine on the basis of my recent work that I published in the form of the book titled “The Seneca Effect“.

The problem we have been discussing is how to limit emissions and we saw that it needs to be done fast and even drastically if we want to avoid the worse effects of climate change. Obviously, it is not easy. (image from Skeptical Science)

Most of what has been said today is based on a “top-down” approach, which I may also describe as supply-limiting. That is, we are speaking of a carbon tax, of emission limits, and the like – measures that governments should take in order to limit the production of fossil fuels. I don’t have to tell you that it is an effort that has been ongoing for several years and yet emissions keep growing. It doesn’t seem to work

So,  can we take the opposite approach? That is, look at the demand side in a “bottom-up” approach?

To discuss this point, let me introduce the concept of the “Seneca Effect” or the “Seneca Cliff.” Let me show the shape of the Seneca curve, drawing it on this board.

You know that I use the term of “Seneca Effect” taking inspiration from something that the Roman philosopher Seneca said long ago; “growth is sluggish but ruin is rapid”. And you see how the curve looks like the projections for emission reductions we have been seeing here.

So, the question is, what causes the collapse we see in the Seneca Curve in complex systems? Well, we can use system dynamics to model the collapse and we know it is not a “top-down” effect, nobody from outside forces the system to collapse. It is a very general phenomenon caused by the interactions of the various elements that compose the system which cooperate to bring it down. And that’s a trick that can be exploited: as I say in my book, “The Seneca Effect“, collapse is not a bug, it is a feature.

Let me see to explain it using the oil industry as an example: see the figure drawn on the board.

Now, you see the segmented line I drew, it keeps going up. It is what the oil companies expect for the future. Their projections, by Exxon for instance, say this: given sufficient investments, we can keep growing the oil production for a number of years, maybe a decade or more.

That’s what they have been doing; despite various dire warnings, the oil industry has been able to keep production growing. It is true that conventional oil (“crude”) peaked at some moment between 2005 and 2010, but it didn’t really decline. Then, the production of “all liquids” kept growing by exploiting other sources such as shale oil.

Of course, the problem is that if the industry continues to make an all-out effort to increase, or at least maintain, production, all we were saying about the need of reducing emissions goes out of the smokestack. Forget about keeping warming below 2 degrees. It would be a disaster.

But look at the Seneca curve, lurking in the graph. It may generate a collapse that would change everything. It would generate more or less the kind of rapidly declining production curve we need for our future survival

The industry doesn’t predict anything like that, but they are vulnerable, very vulnerable. They have a “soft belly” that may send them down the cliff, and very fast. It is the collapse of the demand. That is, we don’t need governments to enact draconian regulations: if the market for a product disappears, then the industry producing it will disappear. Can it happen? Yes, it can.

The key point of the industry’s vulnerability is in the need of large investments to keep the whole thing moving. Facing increasing production costs, they have been able to survive by growing and exploiting economies of scale. This has been possible because investors thought they were investing in a growing industry.

But things have been changing. Consider that typically a good 50% of the oil industry production is gasoline, to this you may add about 20% of diesel fuel and the result is that some 70% of the output of the industry is for internal combustion engines used for transportation.

So far, this has been a growing market, but the electric transportation revolution is coming, and not just that. There is a whole systemic change under the concept of “Transportation as a Service” (TAAS). The combination of the diffusion of electric vehicles and the optimization of the system may rapidly reduce the demand for gasoline and diesel fuel.

We don’t need a large reduction in the demand for transportation fuels to generate a spiral of decline for the oil industry: less demand means less production, less production means the loss of economies of scale, and the loss of the economies of scale means higher costs that translate into higher prices which also depress the demand. And so it goes until it reaches the bottom.

As Lucius Annaeus Seneca said, long ago, “ruin is rapid”. And the ruin of the oil industry is not a bad thing for the earth’s ecosystem and for us all.

Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi

236 Comments on "The Soft Belly of The Oil Industry: the Upcoming Seneca Collapse"

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 2:32 am 



“Alright ‘MM’, So if you really are the real deal, then why are you lashing out against Makati1?”
MM, widdle tried to play that game on me too years ago. He ties his best to pump up and flank mad kat. He likes what md kat says and he spends much of his time here promoting mad kat extremism. Don’t let widdle talk you into hating yourself. Both widdle and mad kat are dedicated anti-American extremist hate peddlers. This should be an American critical site where we discuss issues on topic and without extremism. This should be a site where we discuss world issues and the environment. What has happed is widdle and mad kat are creating an extremist board peddling an extreme version of anti-Americanism. IMA, along with dutchy from Holland. This is a disgusting example of how people with warped minds try to push their goods on the silent majority.

“Again, you say that you are intelligent, but you do not come across as being even remotely smart. WTF ‘MM’?”
Shut up widdle, you are the one that has next to zero to say. Stalking and pricking like a self-righteous buffoon.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 2:34 am 



“Cloggie, well done. I’ll add this famous quote:”

Jew baiters, mad kat and dutchy, how disgusting. You conspiracy addicts and history revisionists have been left in the dust of the new reality of the 21st century. What a joke.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:23 am 



“Who’s Worse For The Environment: Merkel Or Trump?”
http://tinyurl.com/y9m6bzhk

“Jasper von Altenbockum points out the monumental hypocrisy of Angela Merkel’s environmental policies – in the context of her speech at yesterday’s climate summit in Bonn. Emmanuel Macron was able to commit France to exiting coal-powered energy in 2020. The reason he is in a position to do so is France’s long-standing reliance on nuclear energy. Germany cannot do the same because Merkel herself insisted on the country’s exit from nuclear power, as a result of which the country continues to rely on coal. So, Germany got it the wrong way around. This is why we are in the absurd situation where Merkel lambasts Donald Trump for pulling out of the Paris accord, while she herself is not taking the necessary action to meet her pledges under the accord. Altenbockum makes the point that Germany’s energy policy is a total mess, with dozens of reforms all interacting with one another in mysterious ways. There is no way that Germany can meet the various threshold targets for 2030 and 2050. The reason, as a he points out, is that Germany’s entire industrial structure – notably the car industry – is incompatible with the goals of the Paris climate accord. In other words, Germany has very similar problems with the Paris climate goals to the US’, with the only difference that Germany pretends to adhere to them while the US does not.”

“Germany’s dilemma is, of course, the result of Merkel’s decision to phase out nuclear energy by 2022 before phasing out coal, as well as the large share of the manufacturing industry in its total economic output. At the moment 40% of German energy supply is coal-based. The climate targets require either massive de-industrialisation, or a shift in attitudes towards nuclear energy.”

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:23 am 



Reading this article I found several examples of sloppy and inaccurate data but it does make some salient points. One point is to show the difficulties of a large industrialized country like German to go 100% renewable. In fact it is likely Germany is going to get an expensive education. Anytime something new on this scale is undertaken there is a big and expensive learning curve. I will say this knowing the Germans they are one of the best nations for this experiment. They are very effective at innovation and implementation of innovation. This likely expensive education though will surely be beneficial to the rest of the world. What is clear to me is renewables and electric vehicles are vital for resilience and sustainability. We are not going to leave fossil fuels without a collapse but we can moderate the gradient of civilization’s decline because of fossil fuels. Electrified transport is vital to our coming liquid fuel problems.

The key is behavioral changes but I am not sure they are possible economically without a recession or depression. Draconian changes are needed on all fronts but especially deindustrialization. This is true of both the climate and the systematic risks of oil decline. We can arrest these declines with more renewables. The behavioral changes we need are demand management and conservation strategies. With food and transport me need to go local and embrace seasonality. With renewables we need to come up with strategies to increase the utilization of the intermittency of renewables to lower the storage and transmission issues. We need to have more micro grids where locals take responsibility for their energy. This is the only way conservation and real efficiency can be implemented. The economic commons does not allow this. Profit taking by people who could care less about energy and climate trumps good behavior. We need a new wisdom of saying no to unneeded consumerism and exotic technologies that do not enhance survivability. Energy efficiency is sought out but often at high cost and the benefits generally free up resources for more development. This just perpetuates the cycle without and meaningful results to sustainability, resilience, and carbon reductions.

The problem with all this is the money is with the status quo of globalization of economies of scale with performance and energy intensity. Behaviors are geared by marketing and basic human nature to consumption. Leadership is market based capitalism and liberal democracy which allows the status quo by the default of competitive cooperation. What politician could sell the draconian measures needed, right, none. We may be incapable of degrowth. When degrowth happens as it will by natural law of a limits in a finite planet it may destroy globalism and precipitate a global economic reset to much lower economic standards. Once at this lower level renewables and other beneficial technologies will likely be out of the affordability range. There will be salvage and its basic innovation but modernism will likely be over forever. We could very well have worse if we are not careful.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 6:58 am 



“Geeze back to the Jew baiting shit. widdle g, you are a racist asswipe.”
I have nothing against Jewish people, and they aren’t a race dummy.

“Yea, the Jews suck.”

I don’t think that Jewish people are any better or worse than any other religious group, and I certainly do not agree with you that they “suck”. That would be childish.

I’m not overly fond of Zionists, however, and neither are Orthodox Jews.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:02 am 



Davy I don’t know how madkat and greg think I am delusional actually. I believe what the peer reviewed science says which is a global collapse. If they just said a western collapse I would believe that and say lucky you everyone else.They are the ones ignoring the science.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:07 am 



“Nope he is an ugly west coast Canadian anti-American”

I have nothing against America, but I do have something against the ugly-Americans like yourself who are giving America a bad name.

“IOW the land of BC where 4.5MIL people think they are the center of the world. ”

That”s right delusionalist, 4.5 million people think exactly like you fantasize that they do.

Get help.

He is stuck on himself and wrapped up in his conspiracies. It is widdle g and mad kat that have ruined this board with extremism and pressured agenda peddling.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:10 am 



“I believe what the peer reviewed science says which is a global collapse.”

I thought you said you were intelligent ‘MM’?

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:12 am 



“I have nothing against Jewish people, and they aren’t a race dummy.”
Liar, ok let’s get technical widdle the racist, how about extremely prejudice in a unjustifiable way.

“Yea, the Jews suck.”
Come on widdle, that is a widdle deflection technic you do all the time but you are not Teflon, widdle. You are widdle the stalker and pricker who lives by double standards. One standard for widdle and the gang and another for Americans that the gang doesn’t like.

Jews suck widdle. We all know that. If you ever have worked with them then you know they are clannish and tight asses in business. I have worked with them and so did my wife in her previous job. This does not justify your extreme prejudice and hatred. Being irritating and disagreeable is one thing but hatred you, mad kat, and dutchy have for Jews is another situation. You are a shameful person widdle and like mad kat an affront to the truth.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:15 am 



“Davy I don’t know how madkat and greg think I am delusional actually”

Relax MM, widdle and mad kat hate Americans except those who hate Americans. Widdle g stalks and pricks Americans constantly. He is stalking and pricking you so don’t let him get the upper hand. He has little to say otherwise. His main activity is supporting mad kat’s extremist nonsense. Just treat him like shit which he deserves. Asswipes need to be treated like shit.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:20 am 



“I have nothing against America, but I do have something against the ugly-Americans like yourself who are giving America a bad name.”
Lying piece of shit ugly anti-American west coast Canadian. You stalk and prick Americans exclusively and you support Americans that are excessively extremist to Americans.

LOL, blow back is a bitch Aye widdle g. You may have made a mistake stalking and pricking me dumbass. If this is what you want we can continue indefinitely. I love spitting on your dumbass. You are so unintelligent and excessively righteous. People like you make me sick so it is enjoyable to see you squirm.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:21 am 



“I thought you said you were intelligent ‘MM’?”
Widdle g, I thought you said you were intelligent. If you are say something besides stupid.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:22 am 



“Liar, ok let’s get technical widdle the racist”

Maybe technical to you delusionalist. Not surprising at all given your extremely limited intellectual capacity.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:26 am 



“Lying piece of shit ugly anti-American west coast Canadian. You stalk and prick Americans exclusively and you support Americans that are excessively extremist to Americans.”

You are an ugly-American delusionalist, and you are giving your fellow Americans a bad name. You should be ashamed of yourself, but mommy and daddy were unable to teach you any manners.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:30 am 



“People like you make me sick so it is enjoyable to see you squirm.”

You aren’t making anybody squirm, and it is unlikely that anybody could make you more sick than you already are.

You are in serious need of psychological intervention delusionalist.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:37 am 



“Maybe technical to you delusionalist. Not surprising at all given your extremely limited intellectual capacity.”
Widdle, you are prejudice and you flank and support racist. That makes you a racist, widdle. You take on the smell of those you hang out with. What is it with dumbasses like you widdle, who think you can flank and support asswipes and not have that smell rub off on to you.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:38 am 



“Jews suck widdle. We all know that.”

More delusions. I don’t agree with you, and I’m sure that billions of other people don’t either.

“If you ever have worked with them then you know they are clannish and tight asses in business.”

I have never worked with any Jewish people delusionalist, but I do have Jewish friends. So no, I do not ‘know’ that they are ‘tight asses’ and ‘clannish’. Both of which would be childish accusations, and stereotyping.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:41 am 



“You are an ugly-American delusionalist, and you are giving your fellow Americans a bad name. You should be ashamed of yourself, but mommy and daddy were unable to teach you any manners.”

OOO, widdle, am I getting under your skin? Do you regret stalking and pricking? Are you the one with bad manners, widdle? You are the one who stalks and pricks then whines when it gets turned on you. Widdle, there is no such thing as manners for a piece of shit like you. Man up and take what you deserve and quit being a pussy.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:44 am 



“You aren’t making anybody squirm, and it is unlikely that anybody could make you more sick than you already are.”
Sure I am widdle. I am moderating and neutering you. You don’t like it do you. Lol. It is a shame for those on the board that do not come here to here these shit fests but that is the way it is. You can ignore me like others here or we can do this all day and every day. This is what you want dumbass. You can’t have your cake and eat it. If you are going to dish shit out then take it, widdle pussy.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:44 am 



“Widdle, you are prejudice and you flank and support racist.”

I do not support hatred delusionalist, IMO it is a useless human emotion.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:48 am 



“Sure I am widdle. I am moderating and neutering you.”

Only in your sick delusional mind. The reality of the matter is, the more stuff you make up, the more hilarious you make yourself look.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:48 am 



“More delusions. I don’t agree with you, and I’m sure that billions of other people don’t either.”
Liar, widdle, you are a racist and you know it. You give aid and support to anti-Semitics here constantly and over years now.

“I have never worked with any Jewish people delusionalist, but I do have Jewish friends. So no, I do not ‘know’ that they are ‘tight asses’ and ‘clannish’. Both of which would be childish accusations, and stereotyping.”
Yea, sure widdle, like you have all those American friends too but hate Americans. Yea, you are best of friends but if they knew the true widdle they would have a different picture.

TheNationalist on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:49 am 



What’s the definition of a queer Jew? Someone that likes girls more than money.

The zionist scum are slowly killing their host america, that is a certainty.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:50 am 



It really is a sad reflection on yourself, when the only arguments that you can come up with, are delusionary.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:53 am 



“The zionist scum are slowly killing their host america, that is a certainty”

Agreed, but not all Jews are Zionists, and not all Zionists are Jews. Zionists and Jews are not the same thing.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 7:56 am 



“You give aid and support to anti-Semitics here constantly and over years now.”

You obviously don’t even understand what a Semite is, delusionalist.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 8:30 am 



Widdle, the reflection is on you. I am exposing your shit for everyone to see. You are such an uptight proud person this makes you squirm. Widdle, you picked the wrong person to mess with. Get used to this daily. Mad Kat knows how it feels. This will give you two a reason to whine to each other.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 8:53 am 



You are hilarious delusionalist, in a sad and sick kind of way. Knock yourself out buddy, you are doing nothing more than making your own state of mental health even worse. Exactly like I predicted that you would.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 8:58 am 



Widdle, if that is the case then why are you acting like a mental case? What a dumbass. Widdle, you can’t even see your poor behavior becuase you always stalking and pricking others.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:44 am 



Hey Nationalist Your hero steve bannon was sucking Jews assholes last week at the Zionist conference..LOL

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:45 am 



How do you know Adam was a Canadian?

Who else could stand beside a naked woman and be tempted by a fruit?

fmr-paultard on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 9:51 am 



supertard i wasn’t aware you’re so bottled up about irrelevant posts. this is the first time i heard you admnoished me in another thread. i do observe hosue rules and respect people wishes. for example i changed my handle to not make supertard uncomfortable and i stopped talking to aswang because he expressed displeasure in talking to me and called me a degenerate.

i don’t go out and make enemies unnecessarily. i do have a legitimate view on alt-tard media, bumpski, sentapbs and weird and unusual phenomenons.

I don’t intentionally practice mindfulness but I am. i’m sorry to irk you wether intentionally or not. i don’t like people doing it to me either. i’m sincere is all i have to say

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:17 am 



“Widdle, if that is the case then why are you acting like a mental case? What a dumbass. Widdle, you can’t even see your poor behavior becuase you always stalking and pricking others.”

Knock yourself out delusionist. 🙂

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:21 am 



Widdle, a stalker and pricker wants the first and
Last word. You don’t get the last word widdle. You started this pissing match. You can end it, otherwise I will neuter and moderate you. Got it pussy.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 10:31 am 



What’s with your constant sexual connotations delusionalist? Mommy issues too?

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 11:03 am 



“a stalker and pricker wants the…….Last word.”

“You don’t get the last word”

Lol 🙂

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 11:32 am 



widdle, why don’t you say something constructive. we all know you are a prick. Is there intelligence in that skull or just stalking and pricking emotional tendancies?

LOL

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:02 pm 



“widdle, why don’t you say something constructive.”

Go and talk with a mental healthcare professional, and get some badly needed help.

It doesn’t get any more constructive.

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:46 pm 



Widdle g when was the last time you said anything with a thought or idea of significance? All you do is immature stalking and pricking. Are you that devoid of ideas? You act like you are smart, so prove it.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 1:07 pm 



” when was the last time you said anything with a thought or idea of significance?”

Tue, 21st Nov 2017 12:02 pm

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 1:36 pm 



Hey Greg look another Canadian Genius made the news.

Anti-Vax Father Who Used Maple Syrup To Treat Dying Son’s Meningitis Says There Is ‘No Humanity’
http://www.ibtimes.com/anti-vax-father-who-used-maple-syrup-treat-dying-sons-meningitis-says-there-no-2617974?utm_content=bufferbd4ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 1:47 pm 



People who live within the human imaginary lines drawn in the sand called Canada, are no more intelligent than humans born anywhere else MM.

Same shit, different pile.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 2:14 pm 



Hey Gret

A politician and Geologist walk into a bar.

The bartender says ‘We don’t have any beer, we ran out of cheap energy and the economy collapsed”

The Politician says “Nobody saw this coming”

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 2:34 pm 



Greg you need to get off of madkat cock..I can tell that beta male cuck president of yours is really rubbing off.

GregT on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 3:03 pm 



WTF MM??????

Makati1 on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:22 pm 



Greg, the people who comment on this site are a perfect cross section of the Western world today.

There are the BAU at any cost capitalists.
The climate change denialists.
The frustrated, empire at any cost, flag wavers.
The immature, self-important bullies.
The uneducated, brainwashed, ‘snowflakes’.
The techie dreamers.
The climate change believers.
The financial collapse believers.
The open minded, intelligent few.
The combination of several of the above.

I’ve seen a devolution of the quality of comments and rebuttals recently. Maybe it is time for the site owner to shut it down? After all, “Peak Oil” is history. Maybe it should evolve into “Peak Chaos”? I don’t think we have reached that point…yet.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:24 pm 



Peak oil is dead? No the show is about to begin! Called peak oil 2.0….

The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300342X

Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254

Davy on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:26 pm 



“Greg, the people who comment on this site are a perfect cross section of the Western world today.”
Then there is the mad kat, LMFAO, the biggest fraud on the board. Shut up mad kat and quit your games.

“I’ve seen a devolution of the quality of comments and rebuttals recently. Maybe it is time for the site owner to shut it down?”
If you would leave quality would definitely rise.

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:26 pm 



Madkat

All you are is a blowhard who comes here to say OMG the us is soo bad…How dare they use so much, do this or that…MY feelings…My feeeling..It’s not fair for the rest of the world…My fedeeeelings…..My Mormon background brainwashed me that justice has to be served. my feeelings……OMG..

MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Nov 2017 5:34 pm 



Davy

Madkat you can tell has watched way to many movies and teevee shows in America growing up. His whole agenda against the US is a moral crusade to punish the big bad evil USA…Because muh muh FEEEELINGSS!!! LOL Something in this world is unfair..He argues all the time..I can’t believe something somewhere in the world is NOT FAIR..MUh Muh Feelings…