Dear colleagues, we are having an interesting discussion on how to stop climate change and I think I could add some thoughts of mine on the basis of my recent work that I published in the form of the book titled “The Seneca Effect“.

The problem we have been discussing is how to limit emissions and we saw that it needs to be done fast and even drastically if we want to avoid the worse effects of climate change. Obviously, it is not easy. (image from Skeptical Science)

Most of what has been said today is based on a “top-down” approach, which I may also describe as supply-limiting. That is, we are speaking of a carbon tax, of emission limits, and the like – measures that governments should take in order to limit the production of fossil fuels. I don’t have to tell you that it is an effort that has been ongoing for several years and yet emissions keep growing. It doesn’t seem to work

So,  can we take the opposite approach? That is, look at the demand side in a “bottom-up” approach?

To discuss this point, let me introduce the concept of the “Seneca Effect” or the “Seneca Cliff.” Let me show the shape of the Seneca curve, drawing it on this board.

You know that I use the term of “Seneca Effect” taking inspiration from something that the Roman philosopher Seneca said long ago; “growth is sluggish but ruin is rapid”. And you see how the curve looks like the projections for emission reductions we have been seeing here.

So, the question is, what causes the collapse we see in the Seneca Curve in complex systems? Well, we can use system dynamics to model the collapse and we know it is not a “top-down” effect, nobody from outside forces the system to collapse. It is a very general phenomenon caused by the interactions of the various elements that compose the system which cooperate to bring it down. And that’s a trick that can be exploited: as I say in my book, “The Seneca Effect“, collapse is not a bug, it is a feature.

Let me see to explain it using the oil industry as an example: see the figure drawn on the board.

Now, you see the segmented line I drew, it keeps going up. It is what the oil companies expect for the future. Their projections, by Exxon for instance, say this: given sufficient investments, we can keep growing the oil production for a number of years, maybe a decade or more.

That’s what they have been doing; despite various dire warnings, the oil industry has been able to keep production growing. It is true that conventional oil (“crude”) peaked at some moment between 2005 and 2010, but it didn’t really decline. Then, the production of “all liquids” kept growing by exploiting other sources such as shale oil.

Of course, the problem is that if the industry continues to make an all-out effort to increase, or at least maintain, production, all we were saying about the need of reducing emissions goes out of the smokestack. Forget about keeping warming below 2 degrees. It would be a disaster.

But look at the Seneca curve, lurking in the graph. It may generate a collapse that would change everything. It would generate more or less the kind of rapidly declining production curve we need for our future survival

The industry doesn’t predict anything like that, but they are vulnerable, very vulnerable. They have a “soft belly” that may send them down the cliff, and very fast. It is the collapse of the demand. That is, we don’t need governments to enact draconian regulations: if the market for a product disappears, then the industry producing it will disappear. Can it happen? Yes, it can.

The key point of the industry’s vulnerability is in the need of large investments to keep the whole thing moving. Facing increasing production costs, they have been able to survive by growing and exploiting economies of scale. This has been possible because investors thought they were investing in a growing industry.

But things have been changing. Consider that typically a good 50% of the oil industry production is gasoline, to this you may add about 20% of diesel fuel and the result is that some 70% of the output of the industry is for internal combustion engines used for transportation.

So far, this has been a growing market, but the electric transportation revolution is coming, and not just that. There is a whole systemic change under the concept of “Transportation as a Service” (TAAS). The combination of the diffusion of electric vehicles and the optimization of the system may rapidly reduce the demand for gasoline and diesel fuel.

We don’t need a large reduction in the demand for transportation fuels to generate a spiral of decline for the oil industry: less demand means less production, less production means the loss of economies of scale, and the loss of the economies of scale means higher costs that translate into higher prices which also depress the demand. And so it goes until it reaches the bottom.

As Lucius Annaeus Seneca said, long ago, “ruin is rapid”. And the ruin of the oil industry is not a bad thing for the earth’s ecosystem and for us all.

Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi

236 Comments on "The Soft Belly of The Oil Industry: the Upcoming Seneca Collapse"

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:38 am 



No, Vlad and Schroeder are still very good friends. Merkel volunteered to help organize the regime change in Ukraine. Merkel hates Putin on orders of Washington.

onlooker on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:41 am 



Speaking of Germany, the situation there within Germany appears quite fragmented and divisive according to this
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42047532

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:55 am 



I was just reading all about It Cloggie. Not sure where I got the idea from that they were friends. Clearly, that is not the case.

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 1:20 am 



http://tinyurl.com/y9f57fb9

Gerhard Schroeder, chancellor before Merkel, has a job for a Russian oil consortium and is busy exercising damage control in German-Russian relations.

Putin and Merkel:

http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5474b46d6bb3f780138b4567-1190-625/that-time-putin-brought-his-dog-to-a-meeting-to-scare-angela-merkel.jpg

Cloggie on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 1:22 am 



Alt-right Netherlands is now making MSM headlines:

https://www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/alt-right-in-nederland-hoe-erkenbrand-zich-opmaakt-voor-de-strijd-om-een-blanke-natie~a4539593/

The West is sliding in the abyss of nothingness.lol

Dark Fired Tobacco on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 1:37 am 



We are at the cusp of a 13 year transition. At the end private vehicles will remained parked in home garages until their owners concede the obsolesce. Fleet-owned, autonomous, electrically-powered units will transport us to the nearest rapid transit station or to our local destination. The transition will take longer in smaller cities and decades in rural areas, but it will transpire. Private autos or trucks with internal combustion engines will be as rare as horse-drawn carriages in twenty years. The fate of the oil companies will precede the same fate of auto repair shops, dealers, personal injury lawyers, insurance agents, and trauma centers. We will marvel that society ever permitted humans to drive autos.

Dooma on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 1:38 am 



MM.Do you know something that only time can teach you? Experience. So please do not brag about how intelligent you are. In 20-30 years time you will realise just how immature it makes you look.

Makati1 on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 2:30 am 



MM, I would highly recommend that you read this article…

“Undoing the Dis-Education of Millennials”

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/11/19/if-you-ever-begin-a-statement-with-the-words-i-feel-you-must-cluck-like-a-chicken/#more-163902

“I teach in a law school. For several years now my students have been mostly Millennials. Contrary to stereotype, I have found that the vast majority of them want to learn. But true to stereotype, I increasingly find that most of them cannot think, don’t know very much, and are enslaved to their appetites and feelings. Their minds are held hostage in a prison fashioned by elite culture and their undergraduate professors.”

“One of the falsehoods that has been stuffed into your brain and pounded into place is that moral knowledge progresses inevitably, such that later generations are morally and intellectually superior to earlier generations, and that the older the source the more morally suspect that source is. There is a term for that. It is called chronological snobbery. Or, to use a term that you might understand more easily, “ageism.””

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 4:42 am 



“Mm, if you are only thirty years old. You have no perspective to judge much of anything. Double than, if you live that long, and then you might see what we “oldsters” already understand about life and living.”

Mad Kat, yea, that’s how you justify your intelligence, “I am old”. That is bull shit. Why do you think the world is so screwed up mad kat? Old people like you running the world that are stuck in ruts and poor behavior. What a joke.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 4:49 am 



“She is in great difficulties and her downfall is near. She is the most important vassal the US currently has in Europe and as no other is she responsible for the immigration disaster and deterioration of relations with Russia.”
Dutchy, the Germans are not vassals. They are a sovereign nation making choices. The US does not make choices for Germany. You are living in a delusional world of fantasy. There is some common policy elements you don’t like but don’t blame Germany’s problems on the US. Typical anti-American blame game.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:16 am 



“We are at the cusp of a 13 year transition. At the end private vehicles will remained parked in home garages until their owners concede the obsolesce.”
There is a good possibility of that because we may run out of abundant energy of all kinds to run them and will be faced with the end of mass discretionary driving or worse. Renewables and EV’s will likely never be more than extenders in niche applications and “sweet spot” location. I hope they will break through into some kind of paradigm of transition but I have yet to see evidence they will. The physics does not add up.

“Fleet-owned, autonomous, electrically-powered units will transport us to the nearest rapid transit station or to our local destination.”
AI EV’s are unproven and have yet to show they can scale economically or even with human behavior. The markets are not sold on them yet. The huge infrastructure investments have not been made yet. AI is not proven yet beyond testing. The cost and the scaling point to AI being a lost cause. This is especially true when one considers the multiplicity of problems in mega predicaments humans are beset with. This is more wasted techno optimistic efforts when “Rome is burning”. We need rapid transit but this needs to be slow relatively inexpensive and unexotic rail transport or street car preferably driven by renewables.

“The transition will take longer in smaller cities and decades in rural areas, but it will transpire.”
Please quit proselytizing about fake green EV future that is not here yet and would take decades in the best of conditions to materialize. We are in the worst of conditions with an adapted and locally destroyed planetary ecosystem with increasingly unstable climate. It is the smaller cities and rural areas where a real transition might occur to localism and slower living in preparation for a die down of 7BIL people. Our species carrying capacity without high quality energy and complexity is likely under 3BIL. Many think it is below 1BIL considering the destruction to the planetary ecosystem. How quick and how dramatic the effects of this die down will determine what kind of civilization results. The likely outcome is a civilization much poorer and less complex than the current one but the details are not for us to know now. Too many variables involved and too many decisions yet to be made. If current decisions are any example of what is ahead then I am very worried. The amount of poor behavior and lifestyles points to a day of reckoning.

“Private autos or trucks with internal combustion engines will be as rare as horse-drawn carriages in twenty years. The fate of the oil companies will precede the same fate of auto repair shops, dealers, personal injury lawyers, insurance agents, and trauma centers. We will marvel that society ever permitted humans to drive autos.”
Yea, just like your AI EV’s and all other complex devises. We will hopefully manage to salvage and maintain some of the best technology from the late 20th and early 21st century but what is more important is we bring back many of those effective and robustly sustainable and resilience technologies of before we modernized beyond sustainability.

fmr-paultard on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 6:14 am 



guys i’m celebrating eurotard’s early retirement. may he fades into the sunset with his fantasy “confederation army” and his paper PMB alliance.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:52 am 



“the Germans are not vassals. They are a sovereign nation making choices.”

Markel is not a sovereign nation, and it appears that the Germans are making choices to end her tenure as a US vassal.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:29 am 



The Germans are not vassals. They are a sovereign nation making choices. People who play the game of saying the US is running Germany are intellectually light conspiracy addicts. We know the US has influence over German and Germany over the US but it is absurd to say the US is running Germany. It is also an affront to the German people to claim they do not control their destiny. Typical conspiracy addicts talk like this. They seek simple binary solutions to a complex world and
most often this anti-American populist agenda.

onlooker on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:39 am 



MM, wisdom is not always gained with age and experiences but in general they do tend to bestow it

JuanP on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 9:13 am 



MM “Once the goons see smoke coming from your prepper chimney they will know that you most likely have food, water, and woman.”
If you have a rocket stove you won’t make any smoke. It is also good to have a passive solar house or lots of insulation. The goons will come anyway and your shelter needs to be designed and built with that in mind. Selecting a good location is extremely important.

I mostly agree with you on everything you say. I am open minded on how fast and widespread collapse will be. When I was younger I expected things would be worse by now. I am 48 now and do believe that if you are smart you learn more as you get old. It is true that intelligence diminishes with time but experience can make up for it. I don’t much care when collapse comes; I have been preparing all my life and I am as ready as can be, though there is always more to do and learn. I focus on the basics: water, food, shelter, defense, health, and community. Everything else is pretty much meaningless to me. I will go to the nursery in a little while to start around 1,000 plants on 1020 trays; I do this every Monday morning. On the way there I will stop by a community garden to check the 7 raised beds I have there. Later in the afternoon I will do to the local urban organic permaculture farm coop I am a part of; there I will harvest radishes and a salad mix for some friends to sell at the farmers market tomorrow (I grow food but I don’t like selling so I have other people sell it for me and I split the money). Tomorrow I will visit two schools to teach the kids how to grow organic food. Yesterday I was at a client’s backyard where I have 32 3′ by 25′ beds of veggies on the ground and working on a pollinator habitat. I’ve given up on the rat race and retired.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 11:23 am 



“The Germans are not vassals. They are a sovereign nation making choices.”

The German people have as much control over their tax farmers as you do over yours. The people that you are allowed to vote for are hand selected and groomed by political parties, who are controlled by lobbyists, special interest groups, and TBTF banks and corporations. People such as yourself who believe that countries belong to the people, rather than the people belonging to countries, are purely delusional.

YOU do not control the destiny of the US, anymore than a German person has control over the destiny of Germany. That would be an overly simplified idea, that has no bearing on reality, in a complex world. Your indoctrination and brainwashing, have been a complete success.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 11:43 am 



“If you have a rocket stove you won’t make any smoke.”

Once it’s up to temperature, my wood stove does not produce smoke when it is run correctly, at least not any smoke that you can see.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 11:47 am 



Here are four peer reviewed scientific studies done by top scientists that prove beyond a reasonable doubt that global civilization will collapse by2 030.

NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 11:52 am 



Thanks MM,

I’m sure that I’m not the only person here, who already read all of those reports, many years ago.

Just for the record, my best guess for over a decade now, has been for collapse around 2025. I still maintain that view, and have planned accordingly.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:08 pm 



“that prove beyond a reasonable doubt”

One more thing MM,

Most people would tell both you and I, that neither of us are being reasonable.

Just saying……

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:30 pm 



GregT

Time makes more converts than reason -Thomas Paine

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 12:44 pm 



Well, first, your stupid answer did not answer the original question of the assertion that the US is running Germany.

“The German people have as much control over their tax farmers as you do over yours.”
Tax farm, do you even know what you are talking about. Like one German person or many in regards to people. OH, I know the tax farm is in control as a self-organizing subliminal energy source. What a loon.

“The people that you are allowed to vote for are hand selected and groomed by political parties, who are controlled by lobbyists, special interest groups, and TBTF banks and corporations.”
AAH, last I saw groomed political parties, lobbyist, special interest groups, banks and corporations are people and represent many people. So WTF, we don’t live in 5th century Athenian Democracy. This is the modern reality almost everywhere. Join the friggen human race.

“YOU do not control the destiny of the US, anymore than a German person has control over the destiny of Germany. That would be an overly simplified idea, that has no bearing on reality, in a complex world.”
AAH, where did I say I controlled the destiny of the US. I am not grandiose like you and mad kat. I guess in your minds you think that way.

“Your indoctrination and brainwashing, have been a complete success.”
What a dumbass. Are you taking lessons from your elder dumbass mad kat because these days you are talking just like him. LOL.

“People such as yourself who believe that countries belong to the people, rather than the people belonging to countries, are purely delusional.”
So do countries belong to AI bots? Sure they belong to people. What planet are you on or what altered reality are you in. Probably a mental condition of cabin fever up there in the hills of BC with all that rain and gloom.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 1:43 pm 



“Well, first, your stupid answer did not answer the original question of the assertion that the US is running Germany.”

What question would you be referring to? Or simply another delusion on your part?

“Tax farm, do you even know what you are talking about.”

Ask Mommy and Daddy to stop paying the taxes on the farm, and even someone of your limited intellect, might eventually be able to figure it all out.

widdle g: “The people that you are allowed to vote for are hand selected and groomed by political parties, who are controlled by lobbyists, special interest groups, and TBTF banks and corporations.”

delusioanlist: “This is the modern reality almost everywhere.”

Yes it is. At least we agree on something.

“where did I say I controlled the destiny of the US.”

A good start. The Germans do not control the destiny of Germany either. I’m sure they probably figured that one out after WW2. Maybe not.

“Your indoctrination and brainwashing, have been a complete success.”

Self evident.

“Sure they belong to people.”

Which people does the USA, for example, belong to? Would that be you? Your next door neighbour? The tens of millions of Americans in prisons? Makati1, and all of the others like him who have left, but are still American citizens? The people living in the ghettos of any major city? Or those living in the Bahamas? Or does America belong to all of them equally, even though they all don’t have equal shares?

“Probably a mental condition of cabin fever up there in the hills of BC with all that rain and gloom.”

We’ve had very little rainfall this fall, and 3 inches of snow so far. The hills around these parts are in reality mountains, and I am out enjoying them each and every day.

More imaginary delusions on your part.

Get some help.

fmr-paultard on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 2:28 pm 



with eurotard gone supertard gona slay left and right w/o mercy. i’m sure eurotard is watching and itching to come back but he has to focus on his “IT” career.

don’t forget i used to be davy-fan

JuanP on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 3:07 pm 



MM, I read all those reports when they came out. I have been researching collapse all my life.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 3:17 pm 



MM,

Do you believe that the collapse of MIS will cause the extinction of mankind?

If so, then there’s really no point in worrying about it. That would be a waste of our remaining time here on planet Earth. No?

If not, does that not mean that some humans will be prepared enough to weather the storm, so to speak?

Just asking.

Sissyfuss on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 3:46 pm 



JuanP, if there were more quality people like you in this world we would be living in a much more harmonious fashion. I send you reverence and good wishes.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 4:59 pm 



GregT

I think it all depends on if the worlds nuclear plants can be shutdown safely post economic collapse. Personally I doubt it because I doubt people will stick around to work the night shifts once the economy collapses. But I do not know what sort of emergency plans they have ready. And how long and hard the task would be of shutting them down so they don’t meltdown and explode radiation into the air. If the nuke plants don’t get shut down and they explode it will most likely be an extinction event for all of mankind. If they do not explode and meltdown then I think small tribes like living in Africa and places like the Amazon rain forest. Will most likely survive the collapse. Because they still hunt and gather for their food and water and they are far enough away that they most likely wouldn’t run into any gangs of goons..They could of course I am sure some tribes might be closer to cities and such then others. But basically the only way I see anyone surviving is if they live in a very remote area where others can’t steal what they grow or have stored for food and water…

Makati1 on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:03 pm 



Greg, I hope your estimate of 2025 is correct. My own is 2020 plus or minus a year. I don’t see any way they can keep those hundreds of balls up in the air for much longer. The first one they drop will be the domino that brings the rest down. Fast, like in a few days, or slow, like a few year? It will happen. Possibly sooner.

Another 90F/32C sunny day here in Manila.

Makati1 on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:11 pm 



MM, consider that those people “hanging around” have family living in the area, and you might understand how they will stay and shut them down safely. You have not experienced the responsibility of a family yet, I guess.

“Time makes more converts than reason” -Thomas Paine

I doubt that there are any “remote” places like you describe left in the world. Certainly not in the US. Anyplace livable has someone(s) living there already. But if you are part of a small community, you will have some protection. But, you have to have something to offer the community that they need. A skill or resource. (And not be an asshole).

onlooker on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:11 pm 



I am seeing an economic collapse here in US but throughout Western Europe as well. Too linked together. Then Globalization will wither on the vine

onlooker on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:14 pm 



We have run out of cheap energy –Oil companies are not replacing reserves – they are shutting down exploration — because the market will not accept 100 oil…. it collapses the economy. So what is going to happen is that the financial system is at some point going to collapse. It is the operating system of the global economy and our civilization.
They will do everything they possibly can trying to fend off another 2008 moment — they will print and stimulate and bail and loan…. they will use every bullet in the box …then they will throw the empty gun at this — then their will rip off the kitchen sink and throw it too.
I guarantee you they will do ‘whatever it takes’ to hold this moment off for as long as possible.But the moment will arrive — that is guaranteed.
And when it does there will be nothing left to throw — the shops will be looted and emptied — the electricity will go off… the violence and disease and suffering and starvation will follow. Global trade will completely stop — factories will close — spare parts to run the system will not be available — all energy sources will cease to operate — refineries will shut down — oil rigs will go offline — everything – and I mean everything will stop on a dime. Then chaos will reign.
And you will be dead – I will be dead – and the central bankers will be dead.

onlooker on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:17 pm 



MM, you are pretty much right Industrial Civilization is fast reaching its end. That may be fatal to some but not too others

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:36 pm 



Personally I think around 2020 global civilization will suffer a massive stroke. By 2025 it will be in hospice and by 2030 it will be dead.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:39 pm 



Madkat

There are still tribes of humans living in the amazon rain forest areas that have never been contacted by humans. So there are still some very remote people living who could live post collapse and wouldn’t even know that society has fallen around them. If the nuke plants don’t all melt down. And yes madkat some of the workers might have families that they want to keep safe but some may not. And once the panic and chaos hit i doubt you would stick around to work a job that you couldn’t be payed for anymore. You most likely would be hauling ass to the grocery store to try to fight for the last loaf of bread..

Makati1 on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:46 pm 



MM, Your timeline may be correct, but I do not see civilization being dead. I do see the globalization of civilization as being severely cut back. By 2020, the alternate financial system should be in place and ready to take over when the SHTF. Even the IMF is preparing for that day. The Chinese and Russians certainly are. The Petrodollar will be dead, but other means of trade will be in place. America will have to live on what it can produce. THAT is going to be the pain all over the 1st world. Imports will be limited to necessities (food, ores, oil, etc) not luxuries like cell phones, TVs, PCs, or most of the ‘stuff’ you see in malls today.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 5:57 pm 



“Ask Mommy and Daddy to stop paying the taxes on the farm, and even someone of your limited intellect, might eventually be able to figure it all out.”
Widdle do you like to get something for nothing? What is so bad about paying some taxes? It is part of life. You can whine about the tax farm BS all you want but taxes are what keeps things going.

A good start. The Germans do not control the destiny of Germany either. I’m sure they probably figured that one out after WW2. Maybe not.”
Sure they do widdle what planet are you on? Germans as a people all of them including the groups you mentioned earlier that you despise control their own destiny. What a dumbass

“Your indoctrination and brainwashing, have been a complete success.”
Mad kat talk from someone off his rocker.

“Which people does the USA, for example, belong to? Would that be you? Your next door neighbour? The tens of millions of Americans in prisons? Makati1, and all of the others like him who have left, but are still American citizens? The people living in the ghettos of any major city? Or those living in the Bahamas? Or does America belong to all of them equally, even though they all don’t have equal shares?”
LMFAO, a “widdle riddle”

“More imaginary delusions on your part. Get some help.”
Have you told your therapist you are back to stalking and pricking. IMA, talking nonsense as usual.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 6:01 pm 



“Greg, I hope your estimate of 2025 is correct. My own is 2020 plus or minus a year.”

Sick bastards hoping and plotting collapse.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:06 pm 



Madkat

If the US collapses who is going to buy all of the cheap asian products they produce? Don’t you see its like domino falling. Once the US comes down all the others smaller regions will go down with it. Since we make up around 24 percent of the global economy. And we are the worlds number two manufacturer.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:19 pm 



“Sick bastards hoping and plotting collapse.”

Tell everyone here again why you decided to move to the doomstead delusionalist.

Sick bastard that you are.

Makati1 on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:38 pm 



MM, I see China setting up a new and huge trading area with their new “silk road”. They are opening up new trades with Europe(500,000,000+ consumers), Africa (1,000,000,000+ consumers) and Central Asia.(Total consumers unknown but in the hundreds of millions.) And, they are moving to a gold backed trade currency. The US has no gold to trade with.

Sure, there will be some changes, but they can be mitigated. The countries that will be hurt most are South Korea and Japan. The Western ‘wannabees’ along with America, and to some extent, Europe and, maybe, Australia and New Zealand. Countries that depend on trade of necessities (food/energy)to survive.

If you think the world will all be leveled the same, you need to do some research on the current situation outside the US. Shuck that ‘exceptionalist/indispensable US’ bullshit and look at the real world.

That is how I see ‘collapse’. A serious event, but more serious for some than others.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:45 pm 



Madkat

China’s oil and coal production is about to peak in next few years..Goodbye silk road..Hello Dirt road…LOL

MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:47 pm 



China Government Study: China’s Oil Production is About to Peak in 2018 & Coal in 2020 (Wang, 2017)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 7:57 pm 



Widdle, I don’t hope for collapse. I am living a life as an experiment and I hope an example for others.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:00 pm 



You know perfectly well what my position is delusionalist. Stop spreading lies.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:03 pm 



Mad Kat. Silk Road is another Chinese Ponzi you are just to financially illiterate to see the hallmarks.

Mad Kat, of course you see it more serious for some than others becuase that is how you operate. You see yourself as blessed and others as cursed. This is typical of narcissism. You are in the worst possible region and crowing like a cock rooster just before he gets his head wacked.

GregT on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:12 pm 



China’s oil and coal production is about to peak in next few years

Goodbye wholesale/retail in NA, goodbye cheap consumer goods, and goodbye to the service based economy that is entirely supported by them both.

Hello to a 3rd world existence, like the vast majority of people around the world are already accustomed to.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:12 pm 



Oh, I know your position perfectly well. That position is mad kats. You flank him and support him becuase you like what he says. Follow Mad Kat and you know what widdle g is thinking.

Davy on Mon, 20th Nov 2017 8:15 pm 



Entirely is extremist word in this situation widdle and something expected out of the widdle.