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The Five Forces of Fragmentation: A Global System in Breakdown?
How do we know when value to society is being destroyed by economic activities? Taking a systems science perspective, the answer is: whenever it causes fragmentation, or disintegration. This is consistent with the idea that the tendency towards greater integration in nature and society is a fundamental principle of evolution (Smuts, 2013; Capra, 2014).
Hence, fragmentation is by definition devolutionary, literally causing disintegration or the destruction of complexity. Complexity in this instance does not refer to ‘complicatedness’, but rather to synergistic connection or positively reinforcing relationships, in the same way in which our brains embody complexity through its 100 billion interconnected neurons. My contention is that this disintegration in society occurs in at least five principle ways, which I call the five forces of fragmentation: disruption, disconnection, disparity, destruction and disease.
The Five Forces of Fragmentation
An emphasis on integrated value may seem obvious or even inevitable to some. After all, following decades (some would even say centuries) of globalisation and the acceleration of international trade and tele-digital connectivity, the world seems more integrated than ever before (The Economist, 2013). But the globalisation trend has also masked cracks in the façade of integration, beyond the recent political trend of rising nationalism and protectionism in the Trump era (Plender, 2017).
As systems scientists remind us, any complex system exists in a state of dynamic equilibrium, which, if sufficiently disrupted will either break through to a higher state of integration, or break down into a lower state of fragmentation (Laszlo, 2014). In our world today, we feel the tension between the tendency towards integration and the counter-tendency towards disintegration. For example, if we look at the data on security risks, digital distribution, social inequality, ecological integrity and human wellbeing, we can see that there are powerful forces of disintegration that threaten global harmony and progress for all. These can be distilled into the following five forces of fragmentation in what I call the Fracture Economy.
Disruption – This refers to any instability that threatens human life, safety and security, and is most often associated with political conflicts, acts of terrorism, demographic disruption, industrial accidents and natural disasters. For instance, according to the Global Peace Index 2016, only 10 countries in the world can be classified as conflict free (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2016). Another example is the 65.3 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, including 21.3 million refugees and 10 million stateless people (UNHCR, 2017).
Disconnection – This refers to any form of isolation that prevents human communication and effective data sharing, and is most often associated with a lack of access to knowledge, uncensored media and information technology. For instance, 4 billion people still lack access to the internet and nearly 6 billion people do not have high-speed internet (World Bank, 2016). And nearly 2 billion do not use a mobile phone, and almost half a billion live outside areas with a mobile signal (World Bank, 2016).
Disparity – This refers to any inequities that increase social friction or inefficient resource utilisation, and is most often associated with income inequality, over-consumption and unnecessary private asset ownership. For instance, since 2015 the richest 1% has owned more wealth than the rest of the world’s population and 8 men now own the same amount of wealth as the poorest 50% (Oxfam, 2017). And from 1960 to today, the absolute gap between the average incomes of people in the richest and poorest countries has grown by 135% (Bolt and van Zanden, 2014).
Destruction – This refers to any production and consumption that leads to the decline of resources and disruption of ecosystems, and is most often associated with rapacious economic growth, demographic changes and industrial pollution. For instance, according to the Living Planet Index, populations of vertebrate species declined 58% between 1970 and 2012 and will decline 67% by 2020 if current trends continue (WWF, 2016). And unabated climate change, resulting in 2.5 degrees Celsius warming, will devastate ecosystems, increase poverty and cost the global economy $12 trillion by 2050 (UNDP, 2016).
Discontent – This refers to all unhealthy lifestyles and toxic environments that impair human wellbeing, and is most often associated with stressful workplaces, poor diets, lack of exercise and negative psychological attitudes. For instance, more than 40% of deaths from non-communicable diseases (which account for 70% of all deaths, an increase since 2000) are premature or preventable, notably from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancers and diabetes (WHO, 2017). And depression and anxiety disorders affect 10% of people, cost the global economy US$1 trillion each year and have increased 50% from 1990 and 2013 (WHO and World Bank, 2016).
Countering the Forces of Fragmentation
How might this this value destruction in society be countered or reversed? There are clues in innovations that are occurring in five emerging economic spheres: the resilience, digital, access, circular and wellbeing economies. In each of these areas, there are breakthrough business models, practices, products and services that are building, rather than destroying, societal value. I call these the five pathways to innovation, defined in terms of the desired future state they are trying to advance, which is a society that is more: safe, smart, shared, sustainable and satisfying.
Hence, one of the decisive factors that may tip the balance between these opposing evolutionary forces in society – in favour of integration rather than disintegration – is synergistic innovation. Table 1 summarises these tension and potentials.
There is ample case-study evidence that the five pathways to innovation are creating value beyond narrow financial or economic conceptions. Viewed in terms of a multi-capital perspective, we can demonstrate that they are building – in addition to financial capital – infrastructural, technological, human, social and ecological capital. However, the real breakthrough in value creation comes when two or more of the pathways to innovation are synergistically combined, thus creating integrated value. Let me define the concept fully:
Integrated Value is the simultaneous building of multiple capitals (notably financial, infrastructural, technological, human, social and ecological) through synergistic innovation across the resilience, digital, access, circular and wellbeing economies that result in a world that is more safe, smart, shared, sustainable and satisfying.
You can read more about the Five Forces of Integration and the Pathways to Innovation in my HuffPost article, Synergy: The Driver of Integrated Value in the New Nexus Economy
153 Comments on "The Five Forces of Fragmentation: A Global System in Breakdown?"
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:30 pm
I did the math in ten years at the rate of growth shown in tem years worldwide we might be a 3%
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:32 pm
It is very well possible to recycle old concrete, without using new cement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-H6r2SAY9I
(Dutch video)
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:33 pm
Yes I know all about electric arc furnaces. For certain applications yes they exist. However the majority of steel still being produced requires FF inputs that cannot be made with electricity.Do you have any idea how important coal to coke to steel is?
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:38 pm
Every thing you cite is on a very small scale that will not scale up to replace FF’S in our industrialized Civ. There is nothing you have shown so far even with your academic back ground that shows renewable energy can replace FF’s. If you get $200 an hour stop wasting your time on this site and go make money.
boat on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:41 pm
clog,
The doomers will not do the research. They will never recognize the trends of energy use and efficiency that have been going on for decades. Terms like the rate of energy intensity and how it has been dropping. Most of them are no chart reading mo fo’s if you do feed charts. Davy is just a lazy effiency denier like most who cannot articulate the history of innovation of energy use in energy intensive industries.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:41 pm
Yes it might be very well possible to do many things like get gold out of the ocean. As far as at scale making concrete (cement) the whole ball of wax is only profitable at scale by way of burning lots and lots of FF’s.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:55 pm
Here an overview of a recent European cement industry event:
http://www.futureofcement2017.com/Program
They are ALL busy with innovating their production processes away from CO2 intensity (read fossil fuels).
However the majority of steel still being produced requires FF inputs that cannot be made with electricity
In Europe it is 39% EAF.
http://bdsv.org/downloads/weltstatistik_2010_2014.pdf
Every thing you cite is on a very small scale that will not scale up to replace FF’S in our industrialized Civ.
That is what YOU say. Your defaitist attitude shines through in every sentence you write.
Do you have any idea how important coal to coke to steel is?
http://coalaction.org.nz/carbon-emissions/can-we-make-steel-without-coal
It is very well possible to eliminate coal from steel production if you use scrap metal, which will happen increasingly so with ever more iron ore above the ground.
Steel packaging recycling rate in Europe is now at 80%. So maybe EAF processing may constitute 39%, it could be much higher if more electricity from the North Sea becomes available.
boat on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:00 pm
dave thompson,
You should know there will always be FF use in certain applications. You can heat a house with renewables for example but nat gas is the key component for refining petroleum products. Nat gas will be needed for supporting renewables on the grid for decades to come. The commonsense idea of replacing FF as much as possible as past as possible is that FF kills and pollutes at a much higher rate than renewable.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:00 pm
dave, Cloggie will never admit that “renewables” will NOT replace FF, even in enough percentage to keep anything like BAU going. Not even close.
Melting steel, even to recycle requires 1,000C temperatures. Concrete requires a barrel of oil energy equivalent per cubic meter, placed. Glass also requires 1,000C to melt and be reformed.
What is going to replace asphalt or concrete roads for those electric vehicles? How do you transport materials to be recycled? BAU requires billions of tons of ores to be mined and refined annually. What is going to do that?
Even enough coal to warm your house takes several tons per year. Who will mine it? Electric heat you say? Wood? LMAO
Some here have their mind set in concrete and will never change until that 2X4 of reality hits them between their eyes and knocks them to their knees. Too bad. They had a lot of warnings.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:03 pm
“They are ALL busy with innovating their production processes away from CO2 intensity” Being “busy” and doing at scale are two different things.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:06 pm
Thanks Makati1, I am just having a good time letting Cloggie dig his pit as deep as he wants.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:09 pm
BTW: I worked in a manganese steel foundry when I was 20. They used electric arc furnaces. It took the electric equivalent of a small town every time they fired up ONE furnace. The company had it’s own electric substation equivalent to the nearby town of 25,000 people. That allowed them to pour about 20 tons of steel per day.
The US alone now pours about 1,700,000 TONS of steel PER WEEK.
http://www.steel.org/about-aisi/statistics.aspx
Renewables are a bad joke.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:13 pm
dave, I understand. I agree with him on a few points, but I think he is ‘out in left field’ in many areas. I used to try to get him and a few others here to think for themselves, but it seems to be impossible. I realized that I can not begin to offset the brainwashing they seem to have endured and are still enduring. I now comment on those items I am familiar with and have an open mind on and do not visit this site as often. Have a good day!
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:16 pm
Good move, me too> I do not comment to much anymore for the same reasons.
boat on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:16 pm
mak,
Is that like the collaspe of 2007 till now that never happened. You been eating all popcorn all these years waiting…waiting. What you see is millions of humans out of your window with no mad max scenero happening. It must be like being hit by a 2×4 to be so wrong for so many years. Like the worlds longest bad B movie.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:20 pm
Mak, my question posed to Cloggie was name one steel mill that strictly runs on renewables I have yet to find a single source that makes the claim.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:32 pm
”am just having a good time letting Cloggie dig his pit as deep as he wants.”
You realize that in real life references of yourself and mom don’t count?
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:36 pm
“Mak, my question posed to Cloggie was name one steel mill that strictly runs on renewables I have yet to find a single source that makes the claim.”
In Scotland all EAF steel mills run on renewable energy.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-124-scotlands-home-electricity-needs-january-june-2017/
It is your defaitist self who is digging himself ever deeper in a hole.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:39 pm
“I used to try to get him and a few others here to think for themselves, ”
“Thinking for yourself” probably means taking over your opinions.lol
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:39 pm
dave, none of them think the problem thru to the end. They cherry pick a small point to support their claims. They NEVER look at Total Systems or Scaling Up to Reality in any of their claims. They know if they do that their dream bubble will pop. Most cannot handle facts or … the real world. They are prime examples of why the West is toast.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:40 pm
Cloggie, you just made a perfect example of my assertion. No real rebuttal, just bullshit.
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:45 pm
Makat, this is awesome news this site is too much for your intellectual laziness and you will visit less.LMFAO. Maybe too many people are calling you out on your hooka stories and this is causing you mental contortions.
Cloggie is doing us a great service by arguing the merits of renewables. He may be overly bias but it is a good bias unlike yours.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:46 pm
I think America is toast. Too many doomers and defaitists. Can’t-do mentality. Putting maximum effort in proving that something is NOT going to work.
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:48 pm
Dream on cloggie, we will likely save your ass yet again down the road. It is amazing the depth of our compassion for the old country and their failings. Lol
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:49 pm
Bill opines: “Renewables are a bad joke.”
Your jokes are even less funny.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-124-scotlands-home-electricity-needs-january-june-2017/
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:52 pm
You never saved our ass Davy, you just handed us over to your masters, who want to phase you and me out from history. How great is that?
GregT on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:52 pm
I would suggest that none of them have even identified the key problems to begin with. Our biggest predicaments as a species are all the results of excess energy, not a lack of it. Just like listening to recovering drug addicts justify where they are going to get their next fix as they lie dying in a hospitical bed from kidney failure.
boat on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:53 pm
US immigration
Trump said the measure “will reduce poverty, increase wages and save taxpayers billions and billions of dollars.” The current system, Trump said, “has not been fair to our people, to our citizens, to our workers.” He said the new system would favor applicants “who can speak English, financially support themselves and their families, and demonstrate skills that will contribute to our economy.” It would also prevent new arrivals from collecting welfare.
Immigration would drop from over 1 million per year to 600,000.
Not a trump fan but this a step in the right direction.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:59 pm
I am a Trump fan, sort of, but I oppose this ruling. America should not cherry pick talent from poor countries, making these countries even poorer. The US should completely halt immigration.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:01 pm
Cloggie your article talks about powering homes not a steel mill.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:02 pm
Davy, you can be happy that someone who is your mental superior is less interested in your babble. You never had to read my comments, but you cannot resist replying with your Amerocentric bullshit. You mind is so full of propaganda and has been brainwashed until there is nothing left to think with. That is the goal of your ‘powers that be’ masters. It appears they have succeeded. LOL
BTW: No one here is calling me out on anything. There are a few other brainwashed idiots here who try to push their bullshit, but it doesn’t get far when it hits an intelligent, open mind (which greatly outnumber them in this forum) or someone who lives outside the American gulag. I am just putting PO farther down on my list of entertainment than before. Poking at the brainwashed monkeys here is getting boring. Their minds are too closed to reality to get a decent reply. There are some (Davy/Boat/Plant) here who are not worth my time. Others are still worth debating with as they don’t resort to putdowns and name calling when they have no reasonable rebuttal. You do, which is most of the time. Hard to defend a dying terrorist empire, isn’t it? LOL
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:04 pm
“Our biggest predicaments as a species are all the results of excess energy”
It makes a huge difference if a kWh comes from fossil, nuclear or a windtower.
Having said that, the whole universe is one giant power station, where the diverted energy streams for human purposes are pathetically minute.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:07 pm
“Cloggie your article talks about powering homes not a steel mill.”
In Scotland they have a grid, like everywhere else that is brotherly shared between households and EAF steel mills.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:08 pm
100% is for the households, 24% for the EAF mills.lol
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:10 pm
Cloggie, there you go down the road of fantasy again. Do you even know what “scale up to reality” means? Obviously you do not. It is going to break your heart or drive you to insanity when your dream bubble pops. And ‘solar/wind is a dream bubble in the real world.
It seems you do not even consider the infrastructure maintenance required to keep even renewables going. Not to mention the financial system that is required to make it possible in the first place. No, you apparently ignore those realities because they pop that bubble.
GregT on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:10 pm
Hmmm, I thought a kWh was a kWh? Contractictory.
And Cloggie, human beings do not occupy the ‘whole universe’, only one minuscule finite speck of it.
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:12 pm
Ooh, I guess I scored a hit, makat perked up. LOL. Makat, what is it these days. Ignore me or comment on me then there is not visit this site and then you are visiting us all the time. Is that what happens when you get old and senile? You don’t know if you are coming or going. I can see you now pissing down your leg smacking your fake teeth.
GregT on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:15 pm
“It seems you do not even consider the infrastructure maintenance required to keep even renewables going. Not to mention the financial system that is required to make it possible in the first place. No, you apparently ignore those realities because they pop that bubble.”
You forgot the other E mak. The one that the human race will not survive without. A healthy natural Environment. Exactly what the other two E’s are destroying..
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:15 pm
http://www.climatewarmingcentral.com/images/solar_abundant_resource.jpg
I would urge again my fellow posters to have a look at what Dave calls a “cartoon” and realize that the sun throws more energy to earth on a yearly basis than humanity has cumulatively consumed in its entire history.
This should give reason to pause and not overestimate the human role in the overall energy picture.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:18 pm
“Hmmm, I thought a kWh was a kWh? Contractictory.”
Nope. They are equal in energy terms, but not in environmental impact.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:21 pm
Davy, I said I would ignore you most of the time, but I will prod you with the stick of reality from time to time, just for the hell of it. I know you cannot resist replying with your putdowns, name calling and bullshit as your mind is in that rut of abuse.
I will get the last laugh. I see what is happening to where you live and know that it will only get worse. Meanwhile, I live where it is getting better and will do so for the foreseeable future no matter how much you disagree.
Keep trying. Your abusive putdowns are hilarious and the other readers here can see you exposed for what you are. All your pontificating in long winded bullshit will not cover up your closed mindedness. LMAO
GregT on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:24 pm
“Nope. They are equal in energy terms, but not in environmental impact”
The greatest environmental impact is from a species in massive overshoot, mainly due to excess energy inputs.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:26 pm
Cloggie, the sun is there and yes, it sends almost unlimited energy, BUT that has to be caught and harnessed and that is the impossible dream you want to make real. The oceans contain more gold than has ever been minded, but it will stay there as it takes more wealth to recover it than it would ever be worth.
Ditto for alt energy. It is already dying in many parts of the world for lack of financial support to keep it going. Government (taxpayer) subsidies make it possible. Nothing else. Take them away and solar/wind alts would end when the equipment wears out, or sooner.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:30 pm
“I will get the last laugh.”
Or me. Davy is proud of his new Italian passport, which enables him to mimick you and leave the US if the ground under his feet gets too hot, like being drafted for service in the South-China Sea and both your lives get strangely intertwined.
I understand why you left Bill, but I still think that the Ps is asking for trouble, in the light of a possible US-Chinese conflict.
GregT on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:35 pm
A Chinese/US conflict would be trouble for far more than just the P’s Cloggie.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:36 pm
“Ditto for alt energy. It is already dying in many parts of the world for lack of financial support to keep it going. Government (taxpayer) subsidies make it possible.”
Alt-energy is growing exponentially and dying nowhere.
The latest offshore wind projects in the North Sea ate done with zero subsidy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/14/business/energy-environment/offshore-wind-subsidy-dong-energy.html
Renewable energy is the winner and has already beaten fossil on price. And then there is “Paris”.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:38 pm
“A Chinese/US conflict would be trouble for far more than just the P’s Cloggie.”
I think Europeans and Russians would not stop laughing… in private of course.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:40 pm
My elbow gets stiff from typing in horizontal position. Good night.
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:53 pm
Cloggie, do you really believe that Russian will stay out of a Chinese/US war? I don’t think so. Do you believe that the EU would stay out of it? You might want to check on the trade and financial connections between China and both countries.
If the US actually started a war with China, it would be suicide for the US. MOST of the stuff Americans buy and need comes from China one way or another. Not to mention if China dumped it’s USTs and destroyed the dollar. Europe imports too much to be able to avoid the same destruction as both warring countries. China is not Libya or Iraq or any other 3rd world country that the US has invaded recently.
I do not see a war with Russia or China or even N.Korea or Iran in the near future. It can only happen if the US goes completely insane. But, anything IS possible. Glad I do not live there.
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:53 pm
makat, you can’t stand someone calling out your foolishness because you are so proud of your fictional life. It is not hard to rip apart the facade because you are just a blowhard and a braggart.