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The Five Forces of Fragmentation: A Global System in Breakdown?
How do we know when value to society is being destroyed by economic activities? Taking a systems science perspective, the answer is: whenever it causes fragmentation, or disintegration. This is consistent with the idea that the tendency towards greater integration in nature and society is a fundamental principle of evolution (Smuts, 2013; Capra, 2014).
Hence, fragmentation is by definition devolutionary, literally causing disintegration or the destruction of complexity. Complexity in this instance does not refer to ‘complicatedness’, but rather to synergistic connection or positively reinforcing relationships, in the same way in which our brains embody complexity through its 100 billion interconnected neurons. My contention is that this disintegration in society occurs in at least five principle ways, which I call the five forces of fragmentation: disruption, disconnection, disparity, destruction and disease.
The Five Forces of Fragmentation
An emphasis on integrated value may seem obvious or even inevitable to some. After all, following decades (some would even say centuries) of globalisation and the acceleration of international trade and tele-digital connectivity, the world seems more integrated than ever before (The Economist, 2013). But the globalisation trend has also masked cracks in the façade of integration, beyond the recent political trend of rising nationalism and protectionism in the Trump era (Plender, 2017).
As systems scientists remind us, any complex system exists in a state of dynamic equilibrium, which, if sufficiently disrupted will either break through to a higher state of integration, or break down into a lower state of fragmentation (Laszlo, 2014). In our world today, we feel the tension between the tendency towards integration and the counter-tendency towards disintegration. For example, if we look at the data on security risks, digital distribution, social inequality, ecological integrity and human wellbeing, we can see that there are powerful forces of disintegration that threaten global harmony and progress for all. These can be distilled into the following five forces of fragmentation in what I call the Fracture Economy.
Disruption – This refers to any instability that threatens human life, safety and security, and is most often associated with political conflicts, acts of terrorism, demographic disruption, industrial accidents and natural disasters. For instance, according to the Global Peace Index 2016, only 10 countries in the world can be classified as conflict free (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2016). Another example is the 65.3 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, including 21.3 million refugees and 10 million stateless people (UNHCR, 2017).
Disconnection – This refers to any form of isolation that prevents human communication and effective data sharing, and is most often associated with a lack of access to knowledge, uncensored media and information technology. For instance, 4 billion people still lack access to the internet and nearly 6 billion people do not have high-speed internet (World Bank, 2016). And nearly 2 billion do not use a mobile phone, and almost half a billion live outside areas with a mobile signal (World Bank, 2016).
Disparity – This refers to any inequities that increase social friction or inefficient resource utilisation, and is most often associated with income inequality, over-consumption and unnecessary private asset ownership. For instance, since 2015 the richest 1% has owned more wealth than the rest of the world’s population and 8 men now own the same amount of wealth as the poorest 50% (Oxfam, 2017). And from 1960 to today, the absolute gap between the average incomes of people in the richest and poorest countries has grown by 135% (Bolt and van Zanden, 2014).
Destruction – This refers to any production and consumption that leads to the decline of resources and disruption of ecosystems, and is most often associated with rapacious economic growth, demographic changes and industrial pollution. For instance, according to the Living Planet Index, populations of vertebrate species declined 58% between 1970 and 2012 and will decline 67% by 2020 if current trends continue (WWF, 2016). And unabated climate change, resulting in 2.5 degrees Celsius warming, will devastate ecosystems, increase poverty and cost the global economy $12 trillion by 2050 (UNDP, 2016).
Discontent – This refers to all unhealthy lifestyles and toxic environments that impair human wellbeing, and is most often associated with stressful workplaces, poor diets, lack of exercise and negative psychological attitudes. For instance, more than 40% of deaths from non-communicable diseases (which account for 70% of all deaths, an increase since 2000) are premature or preventable, notably from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancers and diabetes (WHO, 2017). And depression and anxiety disorders affect 10% of people, cost the global economy US$1 trillion each year and have increased 50% from 1990 and 2013 (WHO and World Bank, 2016).
Countering the Forces of Fragmentation
How might this this value destruction in society be countered or reversed? There are clues in innovations that are occurring in five emerging economic spheres: the resilience, digital, access, circular and wellbeing economies. In each of these areas, there are breakthrough business models, practices, products and services that are building, rather than destroying, societal value. I call these the five pathways to innovation, defined in terms of the desired future state they are trying to advance, which is a society that is more: safe, smart, shared, sustainable and satisfying.
Hence, one of the decisive factors that may tip the balance between these opposing evolutionary forces in society – in favour of integration rather than disintegration – is synergistic innovation. Table 1 summarises these tension and potentials.
There is ample case-study evidence that the five pathways to innovation are creating value beyond narrow financial or economic conceptions. Viewed in terms of a multi-capital perspective, we can demonstrate that they are building – in addition to financial capital – infrastructural, technological, human, social and ecological capital. However, the real breakthrough in value creation comes when two or more of the pathways to innovation are synergistically combined, thus creating integrated value. Let me define the concept fully:
Integrated Value is the simultaneous building of multiple capitals (notably financial, infrastructural, technological, human, social and ecological) through synergistic innovation across the resilience, digital, access, circular and wellbeing economies that result in a world that is more safe, smart, shared, sustainable and satisfying.
You can read more about the Five Forces of Integration and the Pathways to Innovation in my HuffPost article, Synergy: The Driver of Integrated Value in the New Nexus Economy
153 Comments on "The Five Forces of Fragmentation: A Global System in Breakdown?"
Makati1 on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:58 am
More fluff from the hopium crowd. NOT going to happen. Not now. Not ever. Human greed will not change until there are no humans left. The few groups that practice sharing, etc. will be killed by the rest as resources decline and weather heats up.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:37 am
The leftists of the Huff-Post “forgot” to mention the largest disruptional force of them all: mass migration, undermining the fabric of the entire society and eventually will fragment it alright. Without this fragmentation, the Trump presidency can’t be understood.
More to come.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 6:52 am
They mention “resource depletion”. But not specifically, energy resource depletion. Energy underpins everything that is industrial civilization.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:04 am
They mention “resource depletion”. But not specifically, energy resource depletion. Energy underpins everything that is industrial civilization.
On a human scale there is no energy depletion.
http://www.climatewarmingcentral.com/images/solar_abundant_resource.jpg
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:18 am
Cloggie I got a good LOL out of that stupid cartoon chart of yours.
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:30 am
More stupid ideas on sustainable development by fake greens and fake social caring people. Affluence is the problem. You can’t fix overshoot with pretty sounding system ideas from people writing these things in comfortable climate controlled cubicles in vast overly complex cities engaged in over consumption. At least they do have a handle on what our global system is doing wrong but how hard is that.
The problem with these “fake” bleeding heart people is they are like angles with iron wings. They have lofty goals that are other worldly and do not fit reality. When you do not acknowledge the costs of your actions then you are in a fantasy based world. Let’s pretend we can make the world sustainable. How much would that cost? Yea it would cost lots and lots of money. How are we going to pay for it? We would pay for it by using what we have which is a growth based global system that must grow and get bigger to continue churning out “moar” production. So you want to develop a sustainable system by using an unsustainable system.
Most of these people preaching this nonsense are already affluent and elite. Maybe they are not the gaudy plutocrats of the world but anyone of us living a comfortable middleclass global lifestyle are in this group. These fake greens and fake social care givers want their cake and eat it. They want to talk about helping others all the while they live their privileged lives. Everyone on this board is privileged. Those blaming and complaining about others are stupid ugly hypocrites which most of us are. If you are not one come on here and tell me why you are not so I can spit on you.
Our human society is a Ponzi of extend and pretend. The worst are the lying bleeding heart fake greens and social caring people. Not the ones who are honest and doing this for humble reasons. I am talking about the ones who are delusional and bragging about it. I am talking about the false message of you can have sustainable development by just tweaking the status quo. We can all be rich if we just change our system preaching idiots. You know the Paris accord type things. Talk about a crock of shit review what the stupid fake Paris accord. The only thing that works for an alcoholic is to stop drinking. A functional drunk is still a drunk. We must stop our consumption not try to consume smarter. The sad truth to this is we are already systematically too far into interconnected global overshoot. If we do less consuming and producing people are going to die. It is as simple as that. What is the solution then? There are no solutions because this is a catch 22 predicament of macro proportions. Choose your poison and hope for the best.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 7:56 am
Davy, “anyone of us living a comfortable middleclass global lifestyle are in this group.” I am guilty as charged.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 8:15 am
Cloggie I got a good LOL out of that stupid cartoon chart of yours.
Good, laughing is good for ones health.
But you are not going to explain why the graph (“cartoon”) is “stupid, right?”
Do you even understand the graph?
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 8:24 am
Sure Cloggie, for starters there is no information on the chart what so ever. Just a bunch of colorful balls labeled with names of types of energy. The different sizes do not mean anything I can make out because, for all anyone knows they are just some random art work done to fit the page. There are no numbers indicating anything just a bunch of colorful balls of varied sizes.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 9:04 am
I’ll explain it to you. All the areas are amounts. The great yellow area is the amount of energy the sun is sending to earth annually (if you put your glasses on, you will see the word “annually”).
The other balls represent the total amount of several energy sources consumed to date.
The point of the “cartoon” is to make it clear that the sun sends more energy to earth than all conventional energy reserves combined.
The intention of the “cartoon” obviously is to illustrate the enormous potential of renewable energy.
Hope this helps.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 9:20 am
“The point of the “cartoon” is to make it clear that the sun sends more energy to earth than all conventional energy reserves combined.”
OK so what? We know that because all FF energy is from the sun. The cartoon chart says nothing else about how the energy from the sun is useful to humans the same way concentrated sunlight in the form of FF are. FF energy as we all know is a concentrated form of MILLIONS of years of sunlight. The sun alone, short term, will not replace what millions of years of sunshine have done in the form of liquid FF powered transportation for example.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 10:13 am
We know that because all FF energy is from the sun.
That’s the uninformed layman’s position.
The finest ff insider on this board, rockman has other opinions. And I respectfully am inclined to follow those.
#AbioticOil
The sun alone, short term, will not replace what millions of years of sunshine have done in the form of liquid FF powered transportation for example.
That’s an opinion, nit very much supported by facts.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/05/the-speed-of-the-energy-transition/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/05/solar-eroi/
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 10:45 am
in retrospect i was drawn to paultardism because i was lazy. i thought if we could do politics well then everything would be alright. how stupid i am when the dot com bubble bust. my investment at that time was just enough and i planned to buy a BMW 750iL and drive it like a boss. I ended up with a 2nd hand BMW 750iL.
Before the bust I thought we could just print CDs and keep the economy going. How stupid was i?
Life is hard, we need to do everything to stay above the water.
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 10:52 am
in this video, elites are desperate and they bring out the big gun, a venerable old white man because old white men are infalliable.
As a former paultards other infalliable men are ron paul, the founding father, the various pastors etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK3JOlY0V8Y
A quick look at the system says it’s BS. As a braindead college graduate tard. Yes I had the lowest IQ of the entire university. I couldn’t score so I spent all my living moment to think about it.
I don’t hate women for it …it’s disturbing to see so many tards hate women because they can’t score.
I want women to fight and kill their way out of poverty. I love women. If you love them, you show them the way.
anyways, back to my storey. this venerable old man says he cheated speed of light
W=Fd ….he claims there’s no force but he has work.
his math is tard and it shows W(>0) = 0d 5000% in fact.
look at the comments of all the tards watching his video.
elites also utilized clickbait to reach people.
This is the world of tards. viewers beware.
we need to destroy the alt-tard media because it causes tardism.
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 10:57 am
for the record i still research cold fusion but i’m still a skeptic.
the relationship between thery and experiemnet is symbiotic.
i’m against using theory as a club to bash pons and fleishmann. fleishmenn was a respected scientist before he was bashed.
i don’t like bashing people like how the aultards used peace like a club to bash the govt. they don’t believe in it themselves.
prof randell mills and late gene mallove are solid scientists
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:16 am
why i’m against alt-tard media and tardism? why i’m against all the tards in the comment section?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK3JOlY0V8Y
because tards almost put a bullet in me. what would you do? you work against it.
i’m not speaking to you. i speak to the tards i want to save. i wish someone told me about this.
all i got told was to deserve no liberty if i go for comfort. it means i’m liberated from this earth, get it?
No effing way, I didn’t have the liberty to dig up teh ground to grow my own foods. it’s tard justice for ya.
i want to govt to keep them under control.
onlooker on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:21 am
Clog, you are discrediting your reputation on this board by alluding to the Sun as out competing fossil fuels. The energy from the Sun is disparate, intermittent and much less concentrated than fossil fuels. Also abiotic oil? Oh and finally global breakdown boils down to too many humans alive engaging in pernicious to nature activities
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:33 am
Clog, you are discrediting your reputation on this board by alluding to the Sun as out competing fossil fuels. The energy from the Sun is disparate, intermittent and much less concentrated than fossil fuels.
I couldn’t care less about my “reputation”. The idea of posting is like having a good friend mad at the chessboard, driving him in the corner and finish him off decisively. And of course offering him a good brandy and fine Cuban cigar afterwards, just to keep the friendship alive, so the next chess game is factored in.
Repeat cycle.
That “much less concentrated” is meaningless. Any idea how big the swept rotor area is of a 6 MW wind turbine?
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/?s=ampera
The average distance a car drives par day in a country like Holland is 34 km, requiring 4 kWh. So an Ampera on average needs to be recharged once in every 14 days. In order to keep the Ampera going for 34 km, the car merely needs less energy than half the turning of the turbine’s rotor. One 6 MW offshore wind turbine can power 36,000 Opel Ampera’s for 34 km each, day in, day out. If the 8 million Dutch car fleet would consist of Opel Ampera’s, 222 wind turbines would suffice.
The area of Spain covered with solar panels is enough to power the entire planet (ignoring the storage aspect for a moment). That may sound like a daunting task, however there are 7 billion potential workers on the planet to get the job done.
Somewhere between 2030 and 2050 the job WILL be done.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:36 am
Some inconvenient facts cloggie, over 86% of transportation fuels come from FF. The sun is not/has not, going to replace what we do in transportation with FF. Abiotic oil is total bullshit at scale in the human sense and time frame of our lives. Notice I did note cite or footnote my provable points? I don’t have to because all on this comment board know they are true, not opinion.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:43 am
OK here you go cloggie how much solar do you see on these charts? https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjay_vaxMDVAhXlx4MKHZAzDGQQFggzMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.c2es.org%2Fenergy%2Fuse%2Ftransportation&usg=AFQjCNHelu08nzOYr7Vy_XIDRY6E8Vxhyg
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 11:47 am
Cloggie for electric generation show me the big sun generation “facts” https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwipjqPMxcDVAhXB4IMKHXPlCOIQFggwMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FElectricity_generation&usg=AFQjCNF4Ez5tS7z7umVRlKM1nFu5iMjxIA
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 12:02 pm
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Annual_electricity_net_generation_in_the_world.svg/600px-Annual_electricity_net_generation_in_the_world.svg.png
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 12:02 pm
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Annual_electricity_net_generation_from_renewable_energy_in_the_world.svg/600px-Annual_electricity_net_generation_from_renewable_energy_in_the_world.svg.png
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 12:05 pm
Cloggie note the above chart and tell me how much electricity is generated using solar panels. It is so small the solar is listed with tide and wave.
Anonymouse on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 12:47 pm
Cloggen-fraud always latches onto any link, pic, or soundbite with the word ‘solar’ or ‘wind’, and quickly links it, regardless of whether it supports his muddled notions or not. Often times he does not read his own links, check them for quality or veracity and has admitted to this in the past. His colored golf ball chart is a perfect example of his endless cherry picking and projection tendendiies. He wants everyone to beleive the colored yellow ball(and everything cloggen-fraud reads into it) exists now, in objective tangible reality. Its looks good and (seemingly) supports his fake narratives, so, he posts it. He does not deal with actual data very well at all, and prefers shallow, fanciful wish projection to reality.
Its a feature with cloggen-frauden, not a bug. If his positions are often contradictory, and all over the map(and they are), the links he often posts are in many cases irrelevant to the topic at hand, and context-free as well.
Apneaman on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 1:12 pm
The “Self-Driving Car” is Only an Oxymoron
“Over at every hedge fund, venture-capital and wealth-management shop in the universe, the smartest guys in the room are throwing money at the concept. Why? Because it’s the Next Big Thing, that’s why. Billions of dollars are in play.
Which is why we are seeing an avalanche of faux-news stories about the coming era of driverless cars, how they’re on the streets now, how well they are doing in testing, how soon there will be nothing but driverless cars on all our roads. And all this chum in the financial water has served its purposes: the hedge fund sharks, and the Masters of the Universe they serve, are in a feeding frenzy; and the gullible public is giddy with anticipation.”
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2017/08/03/the-self-driving-car-is-only-an-oxymoron/
Apneaman on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 1:17 pm
This below is from the personal blog of professor George Mobus who studies Systems Science and writes about it.
Anticipating the End
“We believe that we are entitled to increasing material wealth and do not realize that the growth in material wealth was a fluke of the 1950s, 60s and early 70s due to a huge influx of free energy. That concept is totally beyond our capacity. All we know is that once we had it, now we don’t. And we were promised, by unbelievably stupid politicians and economists, that we would have it into the future.
The implosion of the human social system is near at hand.”
http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2017/07/anticipating_the_end.html
baha on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 1:35 pm
This article is about how to analyze and use public attitudes and opinions to achieve transition. It is very well written. It IDs the problems, sets a goal, and offers a solution.
Two synergistic innovations that will tip the balance are PV power and EV transport.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 1:57 pm
Cloggie note the above chart and tell me how much electricity is generated using solar panels. It is so small the solar is listed with tide and wave.
Dave, I trust you didn’t do it on purpose, but you made an entire thread unreadable (on tablets) by posting a very long link without hyphens. Please use tinyurl.com to shorten links.
Regarding your point: it is not relevant for the future of solar how much solar is installed today. Remember that it is only since a few years that solar can price compete with fossil fuel (ignoring storage).
May I invite you to have a look at this German graph:
http://tinyurl.com/y9rzgajs
You can verify that the share of solar electricity is anything but marginal and steadily increasing.
Solar panels of 285W now cost $200. Between 2020 and 2023 the price will be halved again, which will cause a buying avalanche world-wide.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/05/solar-eroi/#more-64651
Just look at the first video to get an impression what to expect with thin solar.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:06 pm
I am looking at world electricity production. Cherry picking one country like Germany to make some kind of bogus point about electric energy transition to renewable energy is just obfuscating the reality.Because at scale it ain’t happening. The main crucial point about the predicament humanity faces is that we exclusively rely on FF to power our industrial civilization. No amount your wishful thinking is going to change that. Again look at the facts. Perhaps you will get it.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:09 pm
From Apneaman’s link:
Is there such a thing as a “driverless car?” Not yet, there isn’t. The conditions for allowing “driverless cars” on the public roads in a few states unanimously specify that the driverless car has to have a driver who is ready to instantly take control of the vehicle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dict8tvR_ZY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ofRjcT8eng
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfBp-oGNoqE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ls6xsj_fCWU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsaES–OTzM
I trust that you do your homework better when it comes to your climate posts.
/snicker
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:12 pm
I am looking at world electricity production. Cherry picking one country like Germany to make some kind of bogus point about electric energy transition to renewable energy is just obfuscating the reality.Because at scale it ain’t happening. The main crucial point about the predicament humanity faces is that we exclusively rely on FF to power our industrial civilization. No amount your wishful thinking is going to change that. Again look at the facts. Perhaps you will get it.
You are unable to look even five years into the future and are too much in love with your spectacular, colorful collapse beliefs in which you heavily invested and now can’t abandon without major loss of face.
Whatever floats your boat, Dave.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:13 pm
Cloggie;Those bullshit videos demonstrate just how easy it is to dupe the general population into not seeing reality.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:19 pm
Five years into the future? what exactly do you envision? Solar panels providing more then 1% of world electricity needs? Then another five years going to a 1.5% increase of world electric production? With a 2% decrease in FF use? Even though year over year we have never seen a decrease in FF use world wide. Only an increase.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:19 pm
Top 10 countries in 2016 based on total PV installed capacity (MW)
China: 78,100 MW (25.8%)
Japan: 42,800 MW (14.1%)
Germany: 41,200 MW (13.6%)
United States: 40,300 MW (13.3%)
Italy: 19,300 MW (6.4%)
United Kingdom: 11,600 MW (3.8%)
India: 9,000 MW (3.0%)
France: 7,100 MW (2.3%)
Anything but marginal.
It will be exactly the same as with the internet penetration… European countries were first with wide adoption, closely followed by the US. Now, 20 years later the entire world has internet.
Won’t be different with renewable energy. Europa did the pioneering, especially with wind, with American and China following. The rest of the world will follow ten years later.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:20 pm
Five years into the future? what exactly do you envision?
Exponential growth in the adoption of renewable energy, that is what I expect. And that Europe will achieve 90% of its energy production renewable long before 2050, the official deadline.
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:24 pm
why did i become a paulard? i used to make fun of paultard but i keep losing arguments.
i thought if you can’t win, join
big mistake ….they’re professional verbal jockeys.
this is why i want to reach tards on the intarweb, don’t join them. don’t send extremist tard preachers on youtube your hard earned shekles.
you don’t ahve to win the arguemnts.
exercise your second amendment and be prepared mentally to shoot the extremist tard preachers.
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:28 pm
why i became a peaktard? why i don’t want doom.
it’s food for alt-tard dung beetles
but i got incrediblly depressed. i’m very lucky i didn’t send a bunch of people to heaven due to my depression
i was the first to grab Heinberg’s “party’s over”. i’ve been with this peaktard for a while.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 2:33 pm
Clogee; “Exponential growth in the adoption of renewable energy, that is what I expect. And that Europe will achieve 90% of its energy production renewable long before 2050, the official deadline.” What evidence can you show that “exponential growth” is now happening? So concrete, asphalt, steel and all the rest of industrial civ will be taken care of with 90% renewable energy? What evidence do you have that proves this?
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 3:20 pm
the heatwaves are easily remediated. to get the biggest bang for the buck, block out the sun hotspot (very small) or to spray water mist to refract it.
Do it at intervals of every 15 minutes or whatever optimal.
This causes the air to circulate and rush toward the sunspot.
my experience shows almost a 1:1 coorelation between winds and sunlight. No sunlight no winds. I would say the winds lag sunlight in about 10 minutes or so.
this has ramification in fighting hurricanes. solar energy isn’t enough to cause hurricanes but aid it. the energy is in the water but water can’t transfer energy to the hurricanes.
this means study water condition on large scales and block hurricanes from teh source. if water is allowed to transfer energy through hurricane winds then the process could experience runaway phenomenon.
if we could somehow find ways to harvest water energy the way hurricanes do then we’d generate tons of energy that way.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:19 pm
What evidence can you show that “exponential growth” is now happening?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
So concrete, asphalt, steel and all the rest of industrial civ will be taken care of with 90% renewable energy? What evidence do you have that proves this?
1 kWh = 1 kWh
Oil, renewable, nuclear, hydro… 1 kWh = 1 kWh.
I have explained this too many times already, its getting repetitive.
You can drive trucks on electricity, large agricultural machines, you can convert renewable energy in liquid fuel like ammonia or formic acid:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/08/formic-acid-as-car-fuel/
Efficient electric blast furnaces have long existed, etc., etc.
In fact electricity is the highest form of energy as it can be easily converted in all sorts of other energy: kinetic (e-vehicles), potential (hydropower storage), chemical energy (hydrogen, ammonia), pneumatic and of course heat (better via a heat pump, is more efficient).
peaktard on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:25 pm
Let them do alternative energy and let them invade our allies.
we get siberia because the grid can not be protected against our jet fuel planes and rockets
Davy on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:30 pm
Cloggie, we can do so many things but is it practical and affordable? You have not answered that question satisfactorily so stop with your “I have explained this too many times…BS. You are not there yet clog. You are just getting started and like a child overly optimistic. You have done much to sway my opinion on renewables but not enough to throw in the towel on doom.
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:34 pm
At 368 Gigawatts in 2017(projected) How long will it then take to get above say 10% photovoltaic generation overall world wide?
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:35 pm
Where are all the alternative energy fun steel mills located?
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:41 pm
Photovoltaics account for less then 1% of generation capacity world wide today. How much generation growth of photovoltaics has offset FF use in the industry?
dave thompson on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 4:43 pm
Where is a single concrete factory that runs on alt energy only?
boat on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:05 pm
Davy,
I believe there will enough climate events to cause major problems around the globe. In the short term like 10-20 years There seems to be plenty of resources and resilience for herd to survive although the culling in areas will be more significant. Will human population reach a peak in 20 years? No clue but that would equal approx 80 million deaths per year faster than the worlds current pace.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:16 pm
At 368 Gigawatts in 2017(projected) How long will it then take to get above say 10% photovoltaic generation overall world wide?
You are asking a lot of questions. Here you see the exponential nature of solar installations. Increase cumulative installation by a factor of 10 in every 5-7 years. Do the math and Google research yourself:
http://tinyurl.com/y8gmuwa9
Where are all the alternative energy fun steel mills located?
You are apparently unaware that electric blast furnaces have existed for a long time and are not seen as “alternative”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_arc_furnace
It is mostly used for scrap metal and since we are living in a world where recycling produces a very large share of total steel production, you can judge for yourself how important electric furnaces already are.
Where is a single concrete factory that runs on alt energy only?
You probably mean cement factory.
https://www.ethz.ch/content/specialinterest/mavt/energy-technology/renewable-energy-carriers/en/research/solar-fuels/solsyn.html
http://www.holcim.com/referenceprojects/solar-energy-in-cement-manufacturing.html
The approach is to convert renewable electricity in synthetic gas and use it to produce cement in a conventional fashion.
You could have answered all these questions yourself and I suggest you do so or otherwise hire me for $200/hour.
You are not there yet clog
Nobody suggests we are.
You are just getting started and like a child overly optimistic.
I was heavily involved on an academic and PhD level in the seventies and eighties, including presenting my work at global renewable energy conferences in Hamburg and Oxford. I’m not “just getting started”.
Cloggie on Sat, 5th Aug 2017 5:23 pm
https://phys.org/news/2012-04-solar-thermal-cement-carbon-dioxide.html
a team of researchers from George Washington University in Ashburn, Virginia, has developed a method for cement production that releases zero CO2 emissions. In addition, the scientists estimate that the new production process will be cheaper than the existing process used in the cement industry.
There you go.