Page added on December 14, 2019
No one seems to agree just exactly when POD (peak oil demand) will occur. Let’s look at some of the projections by major institutions in this regard. This is just a sampling to indicate the wide discrepancy in views.
OPEC says demand for oil will continue to rise into the early 2040’s, then peak and fall off towards the end of that decade. Most oil companies agree with those projections, while BP (British Petroleum) is probably the least bullish of the big oils seeing the mid-2030’s as the point of POD, with consumption hitting over 125 million bpd. Currently, we are around 100 MM bpd consumption. Of that consumption, 55% is burned in transportation, 30% of that is used in personal ground transportation, and 25% is in all other forms of transport: aircraft, ships, trains.
The IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts POD in the mid-2030’s, but that’s just one of its scenarios. It supplies a number of different views depending on conditions, such as the speed with which EVs are adopted, the impact of PHEVs, and ride-sharing services. However, even in its most aggressive scenario, peak ICE does not hit until the mid-2020s, while many others forecast peak ICE will have already occurred. The IEA also predicts that only 30 million EVs will be on the road in 2040.
GS (Goldman Sachs) sees POD in 2024. Its forecast is for demand to grow at 1.2 MMbpd for 2019 and 2020, respectively, 50,000 barrels per day lower than the earlier forecast. This is the general consensus of most analysts, that POD will occur mid-decade.
The most aggressive view I could find regarding the onset of POD was from ARK Invest. Its view is that we are already in POD or very close to it. ARK believes that demand for oil will slow and stall at around 100 MMbpd, then plateau and begin to fall in just a few years. Moreover, ARK asserts that, in 2022, oil production will decline and never recover, with close to 30 million EVs on the road in 2024, 15 years sooner than big oil predicts.
If ARK’s view is correct, then we should already be seeing signs of falling production and/or lower prices for products produced from oil.
I think, contrary to what big oil and the preponderance of analysts say, ARK Invest is correct. We are seeing OPEC cutting production in an attempt to shore up the price of oil. The world is currently, and has been for some time, awash in the stuff. Prices have remained stubbornly low and while OPEC has said the world economy can take $100 a barrel oil, they can’t seem to get the price up to even $70 a barrel.
Big Oil wants to placate investors who have been fleeing the oil patch in record numbers. Investments in exploration companies have fallen off the table, and various projects for recovering expensive oil have been tabled or abandoned entirely, as the low price of oil makes these investments entirely speculative and likely to lose money.
The above are all signs we are in the period of POD already and things will likely only get worse, at least for the oil companies and their investors, who are none too happy with the market going up leaps and bounds while the oil sector does next to nothing.
OPEC already has plans to discuss lowering oil production again at its next meeting. Why, in the world of increasing demand that it describes, would this be necessary? Finally, saying that other uses for oil — such as increased aviation fuel and petrochemical demand — will replace the fall in demand for gasoline and diesel due to the proliferation of EVs and PHEVs is an argument based on wishful thinking more than it is akin to reality.
One might think that this decline in demand for oil was precipitated by the trade war between the U.S. and China, and while that has certainly been a factor in reducing demand, it’s just another paragraph in the story that is the disruption and decline in oil demand and use that we are currently just beginning to experience.
I think, in 2040, demand for oil will be down to around 60 MMbpd, almost half of what it is today.
What do you think?
174 Comments on "Are We In Peak Oil Demand?"
REAL Green on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 7:57 pm
Member what the docters told us Davy? It’s not mentelly healthy for us to keep talking about ourselfs in the third person.
More Davy ID theft on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 8:00 pm
Davy on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 7:40 pm
More REAL Green ID Theft on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 8:03 pm
REAL Green on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 7:57 pm
Davy on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 8:05 pm
STFU Green.
Your not Green. And yer not real.
I made you up.
stupid
REAL Green on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 8:09 pm
I’m real Davy. Your not.
If you don’t git the fuck out of my head i’ll Go back on the medications again.
dumbass
makati1 on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 8:10 pm
Anon, speak for yourself. I only occasionally reply to his shit. But his spew outnumbers mine by at least a factor of 10. He obviously has no life. We do, and it is frustrating for him.
Davy on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 9:30 pm
For anyone that cares. Me n REAL Green are gonna change into a fresher pair of depends and tuck our widdle geriatric selfs in fer the night.
dumbasses
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 12:05 am
When you talk so much MAGA shit that a Nigerian American immigrant turns you into a goblin shark
https://imgur.com/MvhvcCi
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 12:21 am
The king of the right wing little Ben Shapiro.
https://i.redd.it/xevi9og8xw441.jpg
Former editor at Bretbart (Banned by wiki for fake news).
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 12:51 am
Wow can’t believe the cultural marxists conquered Time
https://i.redd.it/krbi11opww441.jpg
Cloggie on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 2:10 am
Northern Ireland is in parliament now dominated by Irish nationalists:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/dup-titanic-northern-irish-arlene-foster
“The DUP has overtaken the Titanic as the standout lesson in Northern Irish hubris”
These folks will likely soon be back in the EU, after reunification with Ireland.
Northern Ireland, as we all remember, was a creation of the Dutch army in 169x:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Boyne
As a Hollander-turned-European I say, give Ireland back to the Irish!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_O3cCs9qmM
Cloggie on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 2:16 am
And then there is Scotland:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-scotland/uk-pm-johnson-must-accept-another-scottish-independence-vote-sturgeon-idUSKBN1YI0EQ
“UK PM Johnson must accept another Scottish independence vote: Sturgeon”
The SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the UK parliament in Thursday’s national election, prompting Sturgeon to step up her demands for another independence referendum.
However, Johnson, boosted by his own Conservative Party winning an 80 seat parliamentary majority in the election, told Sturgeon by phone on Friday that he opposed another independence vote.
The SNP entered the elections on a simple program: independence from London and back to the EU. If on that ticket you win 48/59 seats, you don’t need no stinking referendum, you just declare independence as a measure of government.
My advice to Sturgeon would be: wait for the proper moment, namely the moment where negotiations between Brussels and London are going nowhere and the UK will have no deal at all. Wait for the disastrous economic data to come in, massive lay-offs and THAT will be the day to make your move.
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 5:05 am
stupid was bountiful and mindless last night
this is from stupid:
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk whoah double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense it begins to look like a triple rainbow OMG what does it mean WDIM omg said Please UK engineers try hard to understand this mu…
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk whoah double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense it begins to look like a triple rainbow OMG what does it mean WDIM omg said Davy on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 12:06 am Above not supe…
Davy said Your our most favorite of all our arch enemies in…
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk i knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway said Wb supertard der I’m sorry I drove you away…
Davy said For anyone that cares. Me n REAL Green are gonna c…
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk i knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway said now supertard fitzgerald is identifying new diseas…
REAL Green said I’m real Davy. Your not. If you don’t git the fuc…
Davy said STFU Green. Your not Green. And yer not real. I ma…
More REAL Green ID Theft said REAL Green on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 7:57 pm
More Davy ID theft said Davy on Sun, 15th Dec 2019 7:40 pm
REAL Green said Member what the docters told us Davy? It’s not men…
Davy is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 5:26 am
Davy was mindless and stoopid last night And every other night too. Past, present and future.
He is getting an early start on stupid already.
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:20 am
stupid is up. good morning lunatic
this is stupid:
Davy is stupid said Davy was mindless and stoopid last night And every…
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:23 am
Officials looking into ‘white power’ hand signs at Army-Navy football game
https://nypost.com/2019/12/15/officials-looking-into-white-power-hand-signs-at-army-navy-football-game/
DavySkum@Liar&Hypocrite.com on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:30 am
“if you troll Davy he is going to troll you back.”
DavySkum, such the liar and always trying to play the victim card.
Since nobody desires to converse with you, you can’t control yourself as you routinely “reply” in the nastiest manner possible to comments clearly not directed to you.
Take your victimhood and save it for those who don’t know any better.
DavySkum@Liar&Hypocrite.com
JuanP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:41 am
The sad reality of what is happening is I have weaponized the bad behavior of taking people identities and using multiple fake handles. This then gets used against me and the result is a forum any normal person with a rational and intelligent mind will avoid. I don’t care because for me this is about a turf war. This is my own private Facebook page to say and do as I please. I want this place to submit to my will. If I don’t get what I want then nobody does. I don’t care to contribute either I just want to have this place to myself and play my mind games. Obviously, this is driving people off but who cares. I don’t.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:04 am
What to do about Africa’s baby boom? -Economist
https://i.redd.it/p1lupur01x441.jpg
Send them to Europe. There is plenty of room and fresh food and water.
EurAfrica by 2050!
Then they will never be a threat to the world. LOL
More DavySKUM ID theft on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:04 am
DavyP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:41 am
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:09 am
Hispanic population (2010) compared to the former Mexican-American border (pre-1836/1848)
https://i.redd.it/of8ayv88px441.png
Its the takeover! By 2050 America will be one big toss salad!
LOL
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:14 am
stupid is having a bad morning because his stupidity is not working.
this is from stupid:
More DavySKUM ID theft said DavyP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:41 am
DavyP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:31 am
stupid is having a bad morning because his stupidity is not working.
this is from stupid:
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 7:14 am
Davy on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 8:47 am
The sad reality of what is happening is I have weaponized the bad behavior of taking people identities and using multiple fake handles. This then gets used against me and the result is a forum any normal person with a rational and intelligent mind will avoid. I don’t care because for me this is about a turf war and I have nothing better to do with my life.
I like to think this is my own private forum to say and do as I please. It isn’t.
I want this place to submit to my will. They won’t.
If I don’t get what I want then nobody does cus i think i’m special. I’m not.
I don’t care to contribute either I just want to have this place to myself and play my mind games and copy and paste off topic spam and pretend i’m nueteting everyone else. Insane huh.
Obviously, this is driving people off but who cares. I don’t cus i’m a selfish dumbass.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 9:24 am
“create a population by unsupportable means
supply it with energy from an unsustainable source
govern it with people with unproven intelligence
and there you have our world crisis writ small
It will soon be writ large”
JuanP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 9:54 am
I love coming here once or twice a month, and glancing over the comments. It is so clear to me that the USA and its people are insane. Trump 2020! Tulsi 2020! Long live Putin! Long live China! Long live Cuba! Long live Venezuela! Long live Syria! Long live North Korea! Long live freedom and justice!
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 10:04 am
This is from stupid trying to act like something he is not:
“I love coming here once or twice a month, and glancing over the comments. It is so clear to me that the USA and its people are insane. Trump 2020! Tulsi 2020! Long live Putin! Long live China! Long live Cuba! Long live Venezuela! Long live Syria! Long live North Korea! Long live freedom and justice!”
JuanPee, you mean you come here once or twice a month as a normal person the rest of the 20/7/365 you are the board lunatic destroying this place for selfish stupid motives. CUNTFACE LIAR
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk whoah double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense it begins to look like a triple rainbow OMG what does it mean WDIM omg on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 10:06 am
Muzzie lover Amazon censors comments on supertard big muzzie beard book saying details of his big muzzie beard encounter with big bosom too lurid violated “community standards”
A REAL American on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 10:08 am
“Trump 2020! Tulsi 2020! Long live Putin! Long live China! Long live Cuba! Long live Venezuela! Long live Syria! Long live North Korea! Long live freedom and justice!”
Hey, dumbfuck, move to one of your favorite countries. You can’t have it both ways you lying cheating piece of shit. Leave the US CUNTFACE. You lying, stealing, cheating illegal alien. I am sure your green card is OK but morally you are illegal and you are stealing from good hard working Americans.
Davy on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 10:35 am
Oops, sorry for losing my scrambled widdle mind y’all.
Cloggie on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 2:52 pm
What to do about Africa’s baby boom? -Economist
https://i.redd.it/p1lupur01x441.jpg
Send them to Europe. There is plenty of room and fresh food and water.
EurAfrica by 2050!
Then they will never be a threat to the world. LOL
The Economist… isn’t that rag from a country we THANK GOD just god rid of? Just like the Guardian, that complained that Ursula von der Leyen (7 blond children and hence invested in the future of Europe!) had installed a commissioner to “protect European way of life”), which the Guardian correctly saw as a concession to the European Right.
Sorry pall, but we are outta here… and watch with a vile natzi grin on our faces how spineless Anglos are going to be destroyed by their kiken owners, until the former finally begin to defend themselves, if ever. And THAT will be the moment when Eurasia will intervene to take ZOG apart and divide the Anglo loot among ourselves.
We in continental Europe have Fortress Europe (Mediterranean, Salvini, le Pen, Eastern European, Orban, Putin), where Anglos are stuck with a Trojan Horse in their midst, the very same Anglos who were used by said Trojan horse to get us (temporarily) destroyed.
Not how do you think we in Europe will watch at the spectacle?
Why don’t look up in the dictionary the meaning of the word Schadenfreude. Perhaps mr AH had a point after all, now didn’t he, regarding I AM THE KIKE and his tribe.
Europe is now in an extremely comfortable position, very much unlike white North-Americans. We only have to wait until that ticking time-bomb goes off.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 4:55 pm
Childless Europe- STATS
https://imgur.com/a/z7GHKux
Without immigrants Clogg. Europe is dying off.
EurAfrica!
You’ll be banging on a drum in no time with your new blackie friends!
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 5:02 pm
Clogg projects his own self hatred on minority groups and woman.
And he fetishes about being dominated by a fascist strongman.
A total loser and that is why his movement is a false front.
tommytommywantshismommy on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 5:10 pm
I see more cars on the road today then ever before. People are drive drive drive… boomers retiring nonstop… old ladies driving Buicks down the interstate at 40mph… parking lots at Aldis and WalMart jammed packed with fat slobs looking for cheap carbs to fill their bellys… dot gov printing money 24/7/365 to feed the machine… usa usa usa!
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:21 pm
Clogg has a successful career of getting shat on
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:24 pm
Debt to GDP ratio in European Countries
https://i.redd.it/l9g81fpkk2541.png
Europe is headed for bankruptcy and collapse (again).
JuanP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:44 pm
Is The Death Of ‘Wokesterism’ Upon Us?
An Expulsion Of Demons Is there any saving the Democratic Party? This wretched concatenation of ill-will, bad faith, false witness, and sore-loserdom lurches from one defeat to the next like some mindless monster from an ancient fable of ruin, seeking a final spectacular spasm of self-annihilation. Let’s face it: only an exorcism will do, some spiritual emetic to induce the projectile vomiting of all that borscht the monster has swallowed. The “progressive” (not) Resistance took two body-blows last week, one foreign and one domestic. Its cousin in Britain, the Labor Party, led by the red-headed stepchild of a Marxist-Jihadi chimera, Jeremy Corbyn, got such an unexpected and mighty thrashing at the hands of BoJo that it virtually dissolved into a little puddle of bile on the floor of parliament. Corbyn was a piece of work, a cheerleader for Hezbollah and other enemies of western civ, with a zealous antipathy to economic reality, spreading the virus of identitarian Wokesterism that has infected Britain like a plague of yore. Surely the American Dems noticed how that went down. The Horowitz report also staggered the monster lurching across America, though it took a few days to absorb the blow of countless incriminating details in the fine print. UkraineGate maestro Adam Schiff went on TV Sunday to declare that he had been “unaware” of abuses in the FISA warrant process. Gee, ya think? We are left to wonder who exactly pulled the wool over his goggle-eyes. In fact, his self-unawareness extends to virtually every utterance flying out of his pie-hole since 2016. The IG report left the FBI and DOJ in such a shambles of criminal odor that it dispelled all the narrative curses conjured by sorcerers in the news media for three years running. And as everyone in the country knows now, the IG report is hardly the end of the story. Mr. Horowitz labored under — as they say — an extremely narrow purview that will not constrain the legal audit to come. Meanwhile, the impeachment dumbshow put on by hobgoblin Jerrold Nadler enters a most interesting zone of suspense this week as fate propels it towards a floor debate and then a vote by the whole house on Wednesday or Thursday. That’s a lot of time for members to reflect on the message sent to the voters by last week’s IG report — namely, that the investigative arms of government are so deeply corrupt and malicious that only fools and cads will go along with their findings, and that the distrust extends to the committees in congress who swallowed all that seditious malfeasance in pursuit of impeachment. That might give the vapors to enough congresspersons in swing districts to bring the actual floor vote for impeachment up short. If the case against General Michael Flynn is dismissed as it should be by the IG’s report of broad prosecutorial misconduct — and possibly at any moment now — that could seal the deal against an impeachment vote. How much ignominy can they endure? Have they not grasped the reality that the Mueller investigation failed? That it appears to have been only one part of a larger criminal enterprise to defraud the public? That the Resistance was just an effort to cover up swales of wickedness in a greater swamp of government-gone-rogue? And now, to come to this: two articles of impeachment so transparently empty that they look like windows into vacated soul of the Democratic Party. And now consider all this vectoring into the catastrophe that the Democratic primary has become heading into election 2020. Joe Biden? Really? Are they serious? He left a slime trail as wide as the DC Beltway around his doings as Veep, with enough video evidence to make the College of Cardinals weep for his post-mortal prospects. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders might be moved to study up on what just happened in the UK election, and weigh how US voters might be disposed to another four-year beat-down with the cudgels of inclusion and diversity plus the shady blandishments of free everything. And what else can you show me? Mayor Pete and Cory Booker, two pieces of defective merchandise cluttering up the showroom? This solemn holiday may be the Democrat Party’s last chance to avoid suicide. They need to have a conversation with someone on the cosmic hotline, come to the realization that they’ve truly hit bottom now and must, as Rep Devin Nunes suggested Sunday to his colleague Adam Schiff, sign into rehab.
JuanP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 8:38 pm
I posted the above artical to show how insane America is now. I’m real glad I voted for Trump. Instead of prolonging the stupidity. He’s gonna make the collapse happen a hole lot sooner.
Go Trump!
More Davy Childish ID Theft on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 9:34 pm
JuanP on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 6:44 pm
Davy on Mon, 16th Dec 2019 9:35 pm
I routinely wet my pants. Any ideas what I should do?
Cloggie on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 2:18 am
Debt to GDP ratio in European Countries
https://i.redd.it/l9g81fpkk2541.png
Europe is headed for bankruptcy and collapse (again).
EU average is considerable below US debt.
US goes first.
On top of that EU is a net positive entity, where the US is the largest debtor in the world.
Childless Europe- STATS
https://imgur.com/a/z7GHKux
Without immigrants Clogg. Europe is dying off.
EurAfrica!
Europe is overpopulated as it is. Populists are going to restore the European family.
https://time.com/5394448/matteo-salvini/
If you have no kids, we are going to tax you to the hilt (“wankertax”) and order companies to give jobs to those who have a family. Housing same thing.
Easy divorce is going to be abolished. Purpose of life for most is to raise kids, not sport sex.
Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 4:23 am
“On top of that EU is a net positive entity, where the US is the largest debtor in the world.”
Actually not true, the US owns more of the world then they own of the US if you consider all forms of ownership.
“List of countries by total wealth”
https://tinyurl.com/yx7sxpdc wiki
Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 5:58 am
Of course we all know about asset bubbles and what happens when they pop.
Poof! All that wealth evaporates into thin air.
JuanP is stupid on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 6:39 am
Stupid is uneducated about business and economics so we can expect him to be upset when he read this comment. BTW he has never worked a day in his life and the furthest he got in school is a GED after dropping out of high school.
“Actually not true, the US owns more of the world then they own of the US if you consider all forms of ownership.” “List of countries by total wealth”
https://tinyurl.com/yx7sxpdc wikihe saw
This is stupid’s uneducated anti-American biased response:
Davy said Of course we all know about asset bubbles and what…
JuanP is stupid on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 6:50 am
JuanP is a stupid Miami Beach playboy. And we all know what playboys do. They hang out all day long sipping cocktails and eating caviar. Surrounded by hot young women scantily clad in bikinis. They don’t spend all day long trolling the Internet like me. That’s for us miserable folk. Playboys are too busy having fun! That makes me all REAL Upset like.
Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 6:56 am
I did a tinkle in my undies cause my mommy wouldn’t help me go poopie on the potty.
JuanP on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 6:58 am
“They hang out all day long sipping cocktails and eating caviar. Surrounded by hot young women scantily clad in bikinis.”
At least the DavySkum got this part correct. Better than suffer in Missiry surrounded by a bunch of toothless deplorables, although I can appreciate why Davy feels so comfy with his peeps.
Trumpies of a feather always flock together.
Pathetic.
Davy on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 6:59 am
Already one article of impeachment looks like a dud.
“Did The Supreme Court Just Pull The Rug Out From Under Article Of Impeachment?”
https://tinyurl.com/s342nec the hill
“The decision by the Supreme Court to review the lower court rulings involving congressional and prosecution subpoenas directed toward President Trump undercuts the second article of impeachment that passed the House Judiciary Committee along party lines last week…It undercuts the contention by House Democrats that President Trump committed an impeachable offense by insisting on a court order before sending possibly privileged material to Congress. Even before the justices granted review of these cases, the two articles of impeachment had no basis in the Constitution. They were a reflection of the comparative voting power of the two parties, precisely what one of the founders, Alexander Hamilton, warned would be the “greatest danger” of an impeachment…The first article goes too far in authorizing impeachment based on the vague criterion of abuse of power. But it is the second article that truly endangers our system of checks and balances and the important role of the courts as the umpires between the legislative and executive branches under the Constitution. It would serve the national interest for thoughtful and independent minded Democrats to join Republicans in voting against the second article of impeachment, even if they wrongly vote for the first.”
JuanP is stupid on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 7:01 am
stupid are you trying to be cute or funny? Instead you look mindless and stupid like you really are
This is from stupid:
Davy said I did a tinkle in my undies cause my mommy wouldn&…
JuanP on Tue, 17th Dec 2019 7:03 am
Trump is the best thing that could possibly happen to America. We don’t want him impeached.
Go Trump!