Short-Term Energy Outlook 2015 and 2016

The EIA has just released their Short-Term Energy Outlook for January. They have now included their predictions for 2016. Here is what they expect for US C+C. I have made the first projected production for December 2014 though the EIA says they have production data for December. All date is in million barrels per day through […]

US shale economics challenged as crude, natural gas prices collapse

The plunge in crude oil prices over the past six months has led to a predictable deterioration in well economics across key US oil and gas basins, with virtually all major plays now earning average internal rates of return of less than 20% – a scenario that contrasts sharply with July 2014, when many were […]

North Dakota oil output forecast tabulated using internal model

A stark breakdown from North Dakota projecting how falling oil prices could affect production was formulated using proprietary corporate data and a state official’s personal model. Late last Thursday, the Department of Mineral Resources caused a stir in world oil markets by releasing slides from a presentation to the state legislature that included a range […]

U.S. Oil Shales: Still Growing Fast

Summary How long would it take for the U.S. oil production to go in decline? Why have shale operators waited for six months since the beginning of the oil price correction to reduce drilling? What are breakeven oil prices for U.S. shale plays? What are the implications for the price of oil? It has been […]

An Endless Sea Of Energy

With crude oil prices in a strong corrective mode, energy depletion is understandably not on people’s minds these days. However, this is a scenario that many of us might have to deal with at some point in our lifetimes. Yes, the world currently has more than abundant supplies of crude oil. US tight oil production […]

Bakken Oil Producers Need $55 To Keep Production Steady

North Dakota needs an oil price of around $55 per barrel at the wellhead and a fleet of about 140 rigs to sustain production at the current level of 1.2 million barrels per day, the U.S. state’s chief regulator told legislators on Thursday. Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms outlined breakeven rates for wells […]

Nearly 2% Of Global Crude Could Be Cash Negative at $40 Brent

A recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie found that 1.6 percent, or 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (MMbopd), of global oil supply could be cash negative on an operating basis if Brent crude falls to $40/barrel. Wood Mackenzie’s analysis of 2,222 producing oil fields, which account for 75 million barrels per day of total […]

What Will 2015 do for Peak Oil?

The Cornucopians are exuberant, they believe that collapsing of oil prices dealt the death knell for peak oil. An oil glut, they say, is what we have, not peak oil. But an oil glut is exactly what we would expect at the very peak. After all, that is what peak oil is, that is the […]

Oil Turnaround: Timing The US Production Peak

Summary Analysis points to US production peaking in late April. Oil rig reduction is accelerating. Current two week decline in EIA estimates not too unusual. Canadian rig count down 66% year over year. Current oil rig count 1482. Estimated production breakeven rigs required: 1267. Shale oil wells deplete much faster than traditional wells. This article […]

U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years

Oversupply in crude markets could take months or even years to fix depending on when producers outside OPEC cut their output, Abu Dhabi-based The National reported, citing comments by U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei. “We are experiencing an obvious oversupply in the market that needs time to be absorbed,” the newspaper reported Mazrouei as […]

Oil Exports From U.S. Jump to Record as Shale Output Booms

The U.S. exported a record amount of crude oil in November after a five-year run of production growth that has made the country the most oil-independent in 20 years. Shipments surged 34 percent to average 502,000 barrels a day in November, the most on record dating back to 1920, data from the U.S. Census Bureau […]

Canada, Saudi Oil Set for Showdown

As a test of wills between OPEC nations and U.S. shale drillers fuels a global oil market slump, a brewing battle between Canadian and Saudi Arabia heavy crudes for America’s Gulf Coast refinery market threatens to drive prices even lower. While the stand-off between the oil cartel and U.S. producers of light, sweet shale oil […]

Plummeting oil price casts shadow over fracking’s future

There’s no doubt that US-based fracking – the process through which oil and gas deposits are blasted from shale deposits deep underground – has caused a revolution in worldwide energy supplies. Yet now the alarm bells are ringing about the financial health of the fracking industry, with talk of a mighty monetary bubble bursting − […]

Bakken, Let’s Do The Math

There has been considerable dispute over how many new wells required to keep production flat in the Bakken and Eagle Ford. One college professor posted, over on Seeking Alpha, figures that it would take 114 rigs in the Bakken and 175 in Eagle Ford to keep production flat. He bases his analysis on David Hughes’ […]

Sharp declines in well production typical in Ohio’s Utica Shale

In the world of shale gas in Ohio, the top-producing wells aren’t king of the hill for long. Take the Tippens 6HS well, for example. Located in Monroe County in southeastern Ohio, it produced more natural gas in the first quarter of 2014 than any other Utica Shale well in the state — some 1.117 […]

Oil’s future hangs between the emirates and the shales of Eagle Ford

The decision by president Barack Obama to open the door to US oil exports seeped out of Washington in a low-key manner last week, but the impact could be as explosive as a New Year’s Eve firework display. The ban – imposed after the Middle East oil embargoes in the 1970s – has made it […]

Oil price drop expected to hurt fringe areas in Bakken the most

OGA, N.D. – Ben Chorn had a good vacation in Minnesota last month, making it to a Vikings game, a hockey game in Duluth and getting engaged. But while he was gone, the price of oil hit him personally. “While on vacation, I got a call from someone who’s covering for me and said, ‘Hey […]

US Expected To Increase Oil Production In 2015 Despite Declining Oil Prices

Oil prices continue to fall, but don’t expect the U.S. to curtail its production in 2015. In fact, a recentreport from the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggests that U.S. oil production will grow in 2015. Through an analysis of oil permits, rig movement and the groundbreaking of new drilling projects, known as spudding, in North […]

Russia Pumps Most Oil Since Soviet Era With Sanctions Yet

Oil supplies in Iraq and Russia surged to the highest level in decades, signaling no respite in early 2015 from the glut that has pushed crude prices to their lowest in five years. Russian oil production rose 0.3 percent in December to a post-Soviet record of 10.667 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data […]

Some advice to those developing the Marcellus, from somebody who knows

Most of the people, if not all, the people in the oil and gas industry I have worked with, have been professional and spoken truthfully about the issues that mean so much to folks who live in and around the Appalachian oil and gas fields. Some companies have gone the extra mile to make things […]

World Oil Production, September Numbers

The EIA has published International Energy Statistics with Crude + Condensate numbers for September 2014. As most of you know I only follow Crude + Condensate because I believe that biofuels and natural gas liquids should not be part of the peak oil equation. The data in all charts is thousand barrels per day with […]

Libyan oil output shrinks more as oil tanks blaze

* Hariga fields still producing -oil official * Fire at Es Sider oil storage site after fighting * Es Sider, Ras Lanuf ports closed * Brega port open but mostly supplying refinery   Libya’s oil output has shrunk further after blazing oil tanks at a major terminal helped push world oil prices higher and put […]

David Hughes Weighs In on The Fracking Fallacy Debate

In the current debate about the Nature article “The Fracking Fallacy,” the discussion has focused on estimates of cumulative production of shale gas plays by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and The Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas (UT/BEG). David Hughes provides another estimate in his recent post “Fracking Fracas: The Trouble with Optimistic Shale Gas Projections by […]

Fire spreads at Libyan oil terminal

Volunteer fighters struggle to stave off flames after rocket attack by Fajr Libya consumes increasing number of tankers. The national fire department has refused to assist, prompting volunteer firefighters to come forward [Reuters] Two full oil tanks have caught fire at one of Libya’s main oil terminals after a rocket attack, officials said as the […]

The Dangerous Economics of Shale Oil

For years, we’ve been warning here at PeakProsperity.com that the economics of the US ‘shale revolution’ were suspect. Namely, that they’ve only been made possible by the new era of ‘expensive’ oil (an average oil price of between $80-$100 per barrel). We’ve argued that many players in the shale industry simply wouldn’t be able to […]

Bakken New Wells Producing Less Confirmed

It is has now been confirmed. The first measured 24 hour production from Bakken wells is a very good predictor of the future production of that well. And it has also been confirmed that new wells with higher well numbers are producing a lot less. In the NDIC’s Daily Activity Reports they publish “WELLS RELEASED FROM […]

Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak

A few commenters have mentioned peak oil recently. I am cautious about making forecasts and predictions and prefer instead to observe and document the data as the peak oil story unfolds. I have in fact published a couple of charts recently illustrating aspects of peak oil, one showing a possible peak in the rest of […]

Technology Is Driving Fracking Revolution

Although energy producers have utilized fracking since the 1940s, today’s fracking revolution results from recent technological advances and new oil and natural gas discoveries. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, extracts oil and natural gas from shale rock by drilling thousands of feet below the earth’s surface and then injecting water, sand, and trace chemicals under high […]

Despite Lower Crude Oil Prices, U.S. Crude Oil Production Expected to Grow in 2015

Source: North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, Bloomberg Republished December 12, 4:00 p.m. to update data. The recent decline in crude oil prices has created the potential for weaker crude oil production. EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) includes indicators that provide details on the effect low prices may have on tight oil production, which accounts […]

Decline Rates of Large Oilfields, featuring Jim Buckee

Former Talisman Energy CEO Jim Buckee discusses the decline rate of giant and super giant oil fields. Interviewed by Steve Andrews, Energy Analyst-Writer

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