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Page added on August 25, 2018
When and Why the World Went Wrong
What exactly has gone wrong, and when and why? The open, democratic world order based on egalitarian rights and the rule of law — liberalism, for lack of a better term — is under increasing pressure. The signs, serious and less so, are everywhere.
The trend has now hit so many nations that the explanation has to be global. Social media are frequently cited as a driving force, but I would like to consider an alternative or perhaps complementary possibility for the breakdown of liberalism: As World War II and the Cold War recede in our collective memory, people in the West are simply becoming less cooperative.
Think back to the years during and after World War II. Western leaders created an unprecedented array of multilateral institutions, including NATO, the World Bank, the IMF, the Bretton Woods system, the United Nations, and what later became the World Trade Organization. These institutions found widespread levels of support both at home and abroad, and they persisted.
After the end of the war, there was a general (and correct) sense that international cooperation had been crucial to the Allies’ victory, and that it would be necessary moving forward. World War II affected the lives of so many people, in most Western countries, that this feeling was deep and widespread. Furthermore, the ideas of the “populist right,” which in some ways resembled the now-discredited views of the Axis powers, were not very appealing.
And then the Cold War came, giving these basic cooperative instincts a second lease on life. The Soviet Union and China seemed like dangerous nations with malevolent intentions, and their rise strengthened the cooperative tendencies of the West all the more. In the mid-1970s, “America First” would have seemed like a crazy strategy, and the U.K. was joining what is now called the European Union rather than leaving it. Meanwhile, utterly demonizing one’s domestic political opponents was considered bad form; the real villains were abroad, and some measure of bipartisanship was needed to beat them.
In due time, however, as those who led and fought World War II died and the threat of communism faded, so has the notion of an external enemy. There is no external “ism” — such as communism or fascism — against which liberalism can so readily be defined. China remains a geopolitical issue, but is not seen as a direct threat aside from some parts of Asia and the Pacific.
In other words, it could be that the fractious and increasingly nationalistic politics of today are how things naturally are — and the anomaly is this decades-long period of cooperation and harmony.
This is not exactly reassuring. But if you look at the partisan, controversy-laden, personality-intense, and often stupid American politics of much of the 19th century, it seems plausible. Without the presence of strong external enemies, cooperation breaks down.
There is another explanation for the rise in anti-liberal sentiment: immigration. Through a series of historical accidents, it was kept off the table as a major issue for many decades. The U.S. had choked off immigration in 1920, and at first the liberalization of the 1960s did not have much of a visible impact on the American population. In those early decades after the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965, many poor nations were so poor and unfree that it wasn’t easy to leave them.
As for Europe, in-migration was too small to make much of a political impact. For a while in the 1960s and 1970s, the bigger story was emigration, due to high taxes, from countries such as the U.K. and Sweden. The presence of the Iron Curtain also blocked some of the routes and sources that enable some migration to Western Europe today.
In a democratic society where there simply isn’t much immigration, it is much harder for nationalists and populists to use it as an issue. But today much of the West has seen high immigration for 20 years or more, giving nationalist and populist forces a major talking point. Even if most of the population is broadly pro-immigration, perhaps a core of 15 to 20 percent will not be. With that base, a movement of counterreaction can have real political impact.
The implication of all this? It’s as clear as it is depressing: Nationalism and populism aren’t going away anytime soon.
122 Comments on "When and Why the World Went Wrong"
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 4:50 am
“What Does a Chinese Superpower Look Like? Nothing Like the U.S.”
https://tinyurl.com/ya39n2l7
“China aims to expand its influence from one polar cap to the other. Debt, demographics and a middle income trap stand in the way.”
“Name a country that’s a true friend of China.” More worrying for China’s global ambitions are signs its economic engine could stall. China would, for example, be the first superpower to start getting old before it got rich. According to United Nations projections, its 1.4 billion-strong population is likely to decline and age sharply from as soon as 2023. The number of working age Chinese has already begun to shrink. “I can’t find a single example of a superpower growing when its population was falling,” said Zhang Jian, associate professor at Peking University’s School of Government. The British Empire and the U.S. rose to prominence when their populations were exploding. Xi “needs to take care about the domestic situation and worry less about being a great power,” said Zhang. Nor is China as flush as commonly assumed. Adjusted for purchasing power parity, which accounts for the greater buying power of a dollar spent domestically, China has a larger gross domestic product than the U.S. But that’s a poor measure of international buying power, where dollars are just dollars, according to Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics. “One way to measure the additional money China has to spend around the world is to look at nominal GDP in U.S. dollar terms. In the five years before the financial crisis, that averaged close to 23 percent annual growth,” said Orlik. “In the last five years, it’s averaged 7 percent—including a year of zero growth in 2016.” China’s GDP per capita is around $9,000 compared to $60,000 for the U.S.. That could mean more room for catch-up growth, but to get there China will have to avoid the middle income trap that keeps many emerging economies stuck below a GDP per capita of around $15,000. To date, no large economy has made the transition without liberalizing. Western economic laws don’t apply, according to Xi loyalists; the strategic smarts of the party will let China blow through the middle income trap—even without the independent judiciary and property rights that fostered innovation elsewhere.”
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 4:56 am
“I gave it to you, you fool, but you were too busy with your pathetic attempts to play the fake Iranian to take notice:”
Come on nederliar, you didn’t give me anything. Your sum sock puppet whine is just another attempt to cover your ass getting kicked.
ARTICLE: “I want us to launch an exhaustive review of our security with all Europe’s partners, which includes Russia,” he added.”
AH, neder liar, again you get caught with your pants down in the girl’s bathroom. How does does the above equate to the bellow you intellectual lunatic:
NEDERLIAR: “This, plus Macron’s demand for a European army, including Russia, implies the breakup of the West as we knew it.”
Got it, NAZI?
You are out, mega-out.
Cloggie on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:14 am
This just in:
https://www.rferl.org/amp/france-says-eu-should-not-rely-us-military-defense-reach-out-russia/29456958.html
“France Calls On EU To Not Rely On U.S. Defense, Reach Out To Russia”
“French President Emmanuel Macron is calling on the European Union to boost military cooperation and stop relying on the United States for defense while reaching out to Russia to develop a “strategic partnership.”
Excellent, now we have two De Gaulle’s in office.
PBM is next. You an kiss my ring now, davy boy.lol
US empire shares are collapsing faster than WTC7.ROFL
Expect US balkanization to be immanent.
I’m almost certain that Trump, Putin, Macron and even Xi are cooperating behind the scenes. Or at least have an understanding. The amateur galls May and Merkel are not involved.
Oh and Australia is toast.
Cloggie on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:28 am
“Got it, NAZI?
You are out, mega-out.”
That’s mr Nazi to you.
Seriously, red empire dave is fuming angry with foam on his lips. He shluld be. The love of his life: empire and exceptionalism are evaporating before his eyes.
Why don’t you and millimind take a sort, welldeserved break and jump in the Grand Canyon together?
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:33 am
“PBM is next. You an kiss my ring now, davy boy.lol”
As usual the nederliar gets a vague statement and puts it on a transformer and beams it to the future. How does what Macron said equate to a PBM? Any Euro leader knows Russia will have to be kept at arm’s length. No Euro leader will trust Russia and Russia will never trust Euro land.
“Expect US balkanization to be immanent.”
“IMMANENT” LMFAO & ROTF
“I’m almost certain that Trump, Putin, Macron and even Xi are cooperating behind the scenes. Or at least have an understanding. The amateur galls May and Merkel are not involved.”
“IMMANENT” LMFAO & ROTF
“Oh and Australia is toast.”
SURE nederliar.
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:36 am
“Seriously, red empire dave is fuming angry with foam on his lips. He shluld be. The love of his life: empire and exceptionalism are evaporating before his eyes.”
Driveling drama from the drama queen. You are in the girl’s bathroom with your pants down still. I bet you hate when I sink your agenda.
“Why don’t you and millimind take a sort, welldeserved break and jump in the Grand Canyon together?”
You would love that wouldn’t you. You hate when I moderate and neuter your extremist agenda.
Antius on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:39 am
“Macron says that a united EU-front against Britain is more important than avoiding a hard-Brexit:”
I had a feeling that Macron would see things this way. He is a member of the New Left after all. If he has indeed replaced Merkel as the new driver behind EU policy and direction of travel, then god help you all. Britain and Europe appear to be on a path not merely for hard separation, but cold war, possibly leading to hot war in the future. If Britain suffers an economic decline as a result of Brexit, it’s people are likely to come to view the EU in much the same way as people in Germany came to view Britain and France after WW1. We all know how that turned out.
Gail Tverberg’s latest article discusses the propensity for energy crises to lead to military conflict. Both WW1 and WW2 were preceded by energy crises in Britain and Germany, respectively. Energy crisis was also pivotal in starting the great depression, as increasing oil production was not at that point sufficient to offset declining coal energy in US. The result was falling worker wages.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/08/27/how-energy-shortages-really-affect-the-economy/
Economic theory tells us that so long as lower grade resources are available (i.e. the 4.5 trillion tonnes of fossil fuel that Cloggie keeps talking about) then higher prices will allow any scarcity to be offset. In reality, it tends not to work out like that because expensive energy leads to affordability problems. Inequality tends to increase, as real wages decline. Ultimately, prices tend to fall, because there is insufficient excess wealth in worker’s paycheques to buy more expensive products. Hence we can expect economic depression and falling energy prices in the future. Low energy prices, rising debt and declining cash, will tend to stifle any attempt at energy transition. The economy needs cheap energy.
As the global economy begins to resemble more and more a zero sum game, expect conflict to escalate and geopolitical tensions to rise.
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:55 am
“Britain and Europe appear to be on a path not merely for hard separation, but cold war, possibly leading to hot war in the future. If Britain suffers an economic decline as a result of Brexit, it’s people are likely to come to view the EU in much the same way as people in Germany came to view Britain and France after WW1. We all know how that turned out.”
This is not the 20th century Antius. We have new realities that dictate geopolitical behavior. How would a hot war happen between the EU and Britain? That statement is illogical. Even a cold war would cause so much economic hardship for Britain and EU alike there is little likelihood of it. This talk is not likely unless a quick global decline where to occur. In that case I would expect cooperation out of Britain and the EU out of common necessity.
Cloggie on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 6:19 am
WaPo/Jeff Bezoe is waking up as well:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/french-president-announces-new-push-for-eu-defense/2018/08/27/efee8094-a9e1-11e8-9a7d-cd30504ff902_story.html
“In a speech to French ambassadors in Paris, Macron said “Europe cannot rely on the United States only for its security. It’s up to us to meet our responsibilities and guarantee our security, and therefore European sovereignty.”
He said discussions on defense cooperation should be extended to all European countries and Russia”
Summary: America is retreating, Europe is back.
Antius on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 7:14 am
“This is not the 20th century Antius. We have new realities that dictate geopolitical behavior. How would a hot war happen between the EU and Britain? That statement is illogical. Even a cold war would cause so much economic hardship for Britain and EU alike there is little likelihood of it. This talk is not likely unless a quick global decline where to occur. In that case I would expect cooperation out of Britain and the EU out of common necessity.”
Davy, What is logical and what actually happens, are often two very different things. Also, there are geopolitical power games at work behind the scenes that no one here, not me, you or Cloggie, fully understand.
Europe faces an existential crisis due to British withdrawal. If the UK appears to do well outside of the EU and forges working relationships with it’s members, then the EU hierarchy will suddenly find that more states edge towards leaving the group. This is why the EU ideologues like Macron are likely to do everything in their power to sabotage the UK.
So a cold war does make sense from the point of view of the EUs leaders who remain ideologically committed to an EU superstate. Brexit is the biggest challenge to that vision that they have ever faced. Both sides will lose economically from this arrangement, but it is still the most likely course of events. As prosperity declines, cold wars are far more likely to develop into hot wars. To ignore that reality, is to ignore history. The post WW2 era of peace is a product of abundant fossil fuel energy.
Davy on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 7:24 am
“Davy, What is logical and what actually happens, are often two very different things. Also, there are geopolitical power games at work behind the scenes that no one here, not me, you or Cloggie, fully understand.”
OH, I agree but logical reality is another story. A hot war is very unlikely on a basis of where would the war be directed? A cold war is possible but unlikely. It would be too disruptive to all economies. A political war definitely. This is what is playing out in the US also. The fringe like our very own board extremist talk about a 2nd American civil war. They are clearly intellectually lacking and emotionally packed when they try to enunciate the details.
Antius on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 8:08 am
“A political war definitely. This is what is playing out in the US also. The fringe like our very own board extremist talk about a 2nd American civil war. They are clearly intellectually lacking and emotionally packed when they try to enunciate the details.”
Nobody knows with any certainty how geopolitical events are going to play out. There are too many variables and too many unknowns. We can perceive broad geopolitical trends and make educated guesses what might be happening 10+ years from now. But no more than that. It is more than just a function of how clever we each are. Even the greatest genius that ever lived would be limited in their predictions by the information that they have. And even a well-informed world view cannot anticipate essentially random curve balls.
Cloggie believes that the US is going to dissolve into civil war. What exactly would that look like? If by civil war, we mean organised groups of citizens openly fighting the government, then to some extent or other, every country is in a permanent state of civil war. Britain in the 1970s and 80s, faced violent opposition from Irish nationalists. Could we have called that a civil war? Presumably, he means something different than isolated groups of trouble makers rioting, raping and looting in the streets. Civil war is a vague definition.
Cloggie on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 3:19 pm
Cloggie believes that the US is going to dissolve into civil war. What exactly would that look like?
White secession attempt.
It is the explicit goal of US white nationalists/alt-right to create a white ethno-state on (former) US soil.
It is not so relevant what an outsider like me “believes” will happen. It is far more interesting to pick up signals from within US society itself:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/06/11/cw2-brewing/
Heavyweight Pat Buchanan thinks it could be 2025:
https://www.amazon.com/Suicide-Superpower-Will-America-Survive/dp/0312579977/ref=sr_1_1
That British documentary by Gary Young is very revealing, because here it is a media leftist, who clearly doesn’t want to see a breakup of the US happening, yet has to admit that the US system is “broke”.
I had a feeling that Macron would see things this way. He is a member of the New Left after all.
New Left? Or right-wing French Gaullist tradition? He may talk humanistic, he is actually acting very populist. No large number of invaders manage to crash into France any more these days. The border crossing Italy-France is hermetically sealed.
If he has indeed replaced Merkel as the new driver behind EU policy and direction of travel, then god help you all. Britain and Europe appear to be on a path not merely for hard separation, but cold war, possibly leading to hot war in the future.
Yeah, yeah, your very British concern for us poor Europeans is heartwarming, again thanks. But even Richard Spencer is against abolishing the EU. We need a right-wing revolution that will reach Brussels, not a dissolution of European unity, the standard British wet dream.
I think that Orwell will be proven right with his vision as expressed in 1984:
Britain will finally admit to itself it is not European and retreat into Oceania, as the junior partner of the US. There will be a hard Brexit, animosity, blockades, which will drive you completely in the loving arms of the US. If you want to visit the Alps, do it now, as it could very well be your last opportunity in your lifetime.
Europe will turn away from Oceania (Anglosphere) and team up with Russia, as was the vision of de Gaulle and all Gaullist politicians after him. Putin is ready and sort of paved the way with his new found prestige in Syria. We continental Europeans are going to be right-wing, racialist, authoritarian, “fashi” and abolish multicult. Anglo troops and bases in continental Europe will be cancelled.
China will be China, Confucianist and growing in strength.
And then of course there are the socalled “disputed territories” (basically Islam).
Orwell predicted that all four territories will be in a state of perpetual, but low grade war, at the border, but not a full scale war, because that would only play in the hands of those who manage to stay out.
For white people, life in Oceania will be worse as compared to Euro-Siberia, because of mongrelization and whites being the despised majority, as symbolized by working horse Boxer in Animal Farm, also by Orwell.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four
The strategy of Euro-Siberia must be to encourage whites in North-America to escape from the nightmare their society has become, where meanwhile US median wealth is on the level of Greece, with worse to come.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 3:24 pm
Clogg
There isn’t enough time to fight a civil war..the world is going to start to run out of oil soon and it will collapse the global economy..You need governments in order to have a civil war..When the economy collapses , anarchy will rule the world..
LMFAO
Cloggie on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 3:41 pm
There isn’t enough time to fight a civil war..the world is going to start to run out of oil soon and it will collapse the global economy..You need governments in order to have a civil war..When the economy collapses , anarchy will rule the world..
And we are going to eat our own children too, honest!
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/the-sudden-death-of-peak-oil-4-5-trillion-barrels-of-oil-left/
MASTERMIND on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:02 pm
CLogg
Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortage
https://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c
A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. (Dittmar 2017)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
Australian Government (Leaked) 457 pg Study: concludes world peak oil around 2020
https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190328/https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/BITRE-Report-117-Oil_supply_trends-2009.pdf
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
Antius on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:21 pm
Hmm. Not very much learning going on here Clogster. Did you read Gail Tverberg’s latest article? Those 4.5 trillion tonnes of fossil fuels are unlikely to be available at a price that anyone can afford. The economy producers a certain amount of GDP per unit of energy. If the cost of that energy is gradually increasing, then surplus wealth is declining. The situation is even worse if inequality is growing and there is declining wealth for the lower income percentiles of society. This indicates that the cost of energy is already greater than is sustainable in the long-term. Expect prices to go down and supply to crash along with it.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:54 pm
Antius
Gail is a stupid religious person..The price is only going up..Gail doesn’t understand how supply and demand work..And global oil demand isn’t slowing down with one billion people being added to the world every 15 years..
Her argument doesn’t even make any fucing sense..Prices go down and then the production crashes? WTF?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 28th Aug 2018 5:59 pm
Antius
Those 4.5 trillion barrels don’t even exist..Its just a baseless claim to keep their investors happy..Clogg just doesn’t use any critical thinking and is easily duped by fake news.. because he is a low IQ conservative..Just a Fugly looking neckbeard who likely is 40 years old and lives with his elderly mom.
Cloggie on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 1:19 am
Those 4.5 trillion barrels don’t even exist.. Its just a baseless claim to keep their investors happy..
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/the-sudden-death-of-peak-oil-4-5-trillion-barrels-of-oil-left/
IEA, USGS… keeping investors happy? LOL
Those 4.5 trillion tonnes of fossil fuels are unlikely to be available at a price that anyone can afford.
Unclear indeed. The IEA/USGS are talking about 4.5 trillion barrel (not tonnes) “recoverable” oil, which I would tentatively translate into “somewhat payable” with sufficient EROI.
And then there of course those up to 23 trillion tonnes of coal under the North Sea:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/fracking-is-for-amateurs/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/underground-coal-gasification/
…making the depletionists look really silly.
There is enough to fry us all:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/02/peak-oil-we-we-wrong
Tverberg is just another Heinberg, you should studiously ignore.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 6:32 am
CLogg
The IEA is not saying that and your USGS estimate is from the stone ages..
Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortage
https://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c
A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. (Dittmar 2017)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
Australian Government (Leaked) 457 pg Study: concludes world peak oil around 2020
https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190328/https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/BITRE-Report-117-Oil_supply_trends-2009.pdf
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
MASTERMIND on Wed, 29th Aug 2018 6:34 am
CLogg
Coal under the sea is bullshit..And your source the daily mail is fake news..
You are so dumb its astonishing..