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Page added on August 19, 2019
Kunstler: There Is No Normal
The wheel of time rolls forward, never retracing its path, but because it is a wheel, and we are riding in it, a persistent illusion persuades us that the landscape is recognizably the same, and that our doings within the regular turning of the seasons seem comfortably normal. There is no normal.
There is for us, at this moment in history, an especially harsh turning (so Strauss and Howe would say) as our journey takes the exit ramp out of the high energy era into the next reality of a long emergency. The human hive-mind senses that something is different, but at the same moment we’re unable to imagine changing all our exquisitely tuned arrangements — especially the thinking class in charge of all that, self-enchanted with pixeled fantasies. The dissonance over this is driving America crazy.
The wheel hit a deep pothole in 2008 turning onto the off-ramp and has been wobbling badly ever since. 2008 was a warning that going through the motions isn’t enough to sustain a sense of purpose, either nationally or for individuals trying to keep their lives together ever more desperately. The cultural memory of the confident years, when we seemed to know what we were doing, and where we were going, dogs us and mocks us.
The young adults feel all that most acutely. The pain prompts them to want to deconstruct that memory. “No, it didn’t happen that way,” they are saying. All those stories about the founding of this society — of those Great Men with their powdered hair-doos writing the national charter, and the remarkable experience of the past 200-odd years — are wrong! There was nothing wonderful about it. The whole thing was a swindle!
They are feeling the wheel’s turning most painfully, since they know they will see many more turnings in the years ahead, and the direction of the wheel is vectoring downward for them. The bottom-line is less of everything, not more. That is a new ethos here in America and it’s hardly comforting: Less income, fewer comforts, more literal hardships, fewer consolations for the universal difficulty of being alive. No wonder they are angry.
It’s this simple. We landed in the New World five hundred years ago. It was full of good things that human beings had barely begun to exploit, laid out like a banquet. There was plenty of good virgin soil for growing food, the best timber in the world, clean rivers and great lakes, ores full of iron, gold, and silver, and down deep a bonanza of coal and oil to drive the wheel through very flush times. The past century was particularly supercharged, the oil years.
Imagine living through the very start of all that, the blinding, fantastic newness of modernity! Look back at the stories and images around Teddy Roosevelt and his times, and the confidence of that era just astonishes you, An emergent cavalcade of wonders: electricity, telephones, railroads, subways, skyscrapers! And in a few more years movies, cars, airplanes, radio. Even the backstage wonders of the day were astonishments: household plumbing for all, running hot water, municipal water and sewer systems, refrigeration, tractors! It’s hard to conceive how much these developments changed the human experience of daily life.
Even the traumas of the 20th century’s world wars did not crush that sense of amazing progress, at least not in North America, spared the wars’ mighty wreckage. The post-war confidence of American society achieved a level of in-your-face laughable hubris — see the USA in your Chevrolet! — until John Kennedy was shot down, and after that the delirious moonshot euphoria steadily gave way to corrosive skepticism, anxiety, acrimony, and enmity. My generation, booming into adulthood, naively thought they could fix all that with Earth Day, tofu, and computers, and keep the great wheel rolling down into an even more glorious cybernetic nirvana.
Fakeout. That’s not where the wheel is going. We borrowed all we possibly could from the future to pretend that the system was still working, and now the future is at the door like a re-po man come to take away both the car and the house. The financial scene is an excellent analog to our collective psychology. Its workings depend on the simple faith that its workings work. So, it is easy to imagine what happens when that faith wavers.
We’re on the verge of a lot of things coming apart: supply lines, revenue streams, international agreements, political assumptions, promises to do this and that. We have no idea how to keep it together on the downside. We don’t even want to think about it. The best we can do for the moment is pretend that the downside doesn’t exist. And meanwhile, fight both for social justice and to make America great again, two seemingly noble ideas, both exercises in futility. The wheel is still turning and the change of season soon upon us. What will you do?
177 Comments on "Kunstler: There Is No Normal"
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:41 am
Davy said Your so dumb makato. Everyone on the board is insa…
Davy said I cannot even go check on my goat, my cow, and my…
Davy said Thee- Forgot to let you know I’ll be working…
Davy said Hi Thee- Great minds like our think alike. Hence,…
JuanP identity fraud on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:42 am
Davy said Your so dumb makato. Everyone on the board is insa…
Davy said I cannot even go check on my goat, my cow, and my…
Davy said Thee- Forgot to let you know I’ll be working…
Davy said Hi Thee- Great minds like our think alike. Hence,…
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:06 am
“Mr. President, This Is How To Get The Fed To Launch Quantitative Easing”
https://tinyurl.com/y6nw4cqu zero hedge
“ultimate black rhino” scenario is not its base case… however, the odds of one are rapidly rising. And here is the punchline: if a worst-case scenario unfolds, BMO believes the Fed and other central banks will ease more aggressively, given the escalating risks of recession. And, should a recession scenario become the modal view, the Fed would not hesitate to quickly lower policy rates to the zero lower bound again, partly in the hope that rapid rate reductions could minimize the chance of having to ramp-up QE again or venture into negative rates. Other central banks would follow suit in this “race to the bottom”, that many would be hoping is accompanied with local currency depreciation (even perhaps with a bit of official encouragement). What does that mean for the US? An outright economic war would be extremely consequential for the US economy and thus monetary policy and the Treasury market. At a first pass, the Fed would react in terms of the impact on growth, inflation, and financial conditions. Economic war would lead to slower growth causing less inflationary pressure (despite any import tax expansion) and tighter financial conditions. All of this would correspond to the Fed responding in force by cutting aggressively – likely back to the effective lower bound – and – Trump, are you listening – restarting quantitative easing. In other words, if Trump really wants to pressure the Fed into QE, what he needs to do is simple: unleash global trade war that mutates into global economic warfare, which in turn leaves the Fed with no choice but to launch QE. Initially, a dramatic flight-to-quality and liquidity into Treasuries would increase downward pressure on US rates across tenors. Eventually, yields would breach the lows of the last cycle when 2s bottomed out at 0.14% 5s reached 0.53%, or said otherwise, both 2s and 5s would go negative.. In addition, 10-year yields would fall substantially further from here, passing the record low of 1.32% in short order before quickly approaching 1.00%.”
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:13 am
“World Bank Says Water Pollution Weighs on Global Economic Growth”
https://tinyurl.com/y5u924h2 bloomberg
“Poor water quality saps one-third of potential economic growth in the most heavily polluted areas, according to a new global analysis by the World Bank that underscores how crucial clean water is to productivity. “Deteriorating water quality is stalling economic growth, worsening health conditions, reducing food production, and exacerbating poverty in many countries,” World Bank Group President David Malpass said in a statement released with the report Tuesday…The report said bacteria, sewage, chemicals and plastics can reduce oxygen in water and increase toxicity. In particular, increased nitrogen levels in water can impact growth and mental development among children and reduce future adult earnings by as much as 2% compared with those who weren’t exposed. Nitrogen typically enters water supplies when applied as fertilizer in agriculture. That can raise farm productivity, but nitrates can damage the environment when they accumulate in ground water and there’s runoff entering rivers, lakes and oceans. High salinity also contributes to poor water quality, driven by more intense droughts, storm surges and rising water extraction. That in turn depresses agricultural yields by an amount that could feed 170 million people, or about the population of Bangladesh, according to the report. The researchers, led by Richard Damania and Aude-Sophie Rodella, also noted increasing concern about microplastics and pharmaceuticals. More than 90% of the estimated 8.3 billion tons of plastic created since the 1950s has not been recycled, and there’s limited information about safety thresholds for how much is safe in water supplies. Some studies have detected microplastics in more than 80% of global freshwater sources, municipal tap water, and bottled water. Pharmaceuticals are also entering the water supply at alarming rates. According to the report, one Indian wastewater treatment plant which serves a large drug-manufacturing region in was found to have concentrations of antibiotics at 1,000 times the level toxic to some bacteria. Pharmaceuticals most commonly enter water supplies through human or animal urine and feces, as 30% to 90% of most antibiotics can be excreted as active substances.”
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:23 am
“We Should Be Retreating Already From the Coastline,’ Scientist Suggests After Finding Warm Waters Below Greenland”
https://tinyurl.com/y2v4rclo ecowatch
“It’s very rare anywhere on the planet to see 700 meters of no temperature variation, normally we find colder waters in the upper hundred meters or so, but right in front of the glacier it’s warm all the way up,” said Ian Fenty, a climate scientist at NASA, to CNN. “These warm waters now are able to be in direct contact with the ice over its entire face, supercharging the melting.” Helheim has made news the past two summers. Two years ago it lost a huge 2-mile piece. Last summer a chunk the size of lower Manhattan broke off and was captured on video, as National Geographic reported. “It retreats by many meters per day, it’s tens of meters per day. You can probably set your iPhone on timelapse and actually see it go by,” said Willis to CNN. The ice in Greenland started the summer weak. There was little snowfall this past winter to reinforce the ice or to absorb the sunlight in the peak of summer, when the sun never fully goes down. Fresh snow stays bright and reflective, which bounces away solar radiation. Older snow is less reflective and absorbs the sun’s heat. When the first heat wave hit in June, 45 percent of Greenland’s ice sheet was ready to melt, according to National Geographic.”
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:51 am
I will be in Venice tomorrow. The wife needs my help. This is a good example of the flexibility of REAL Green. I decided against a trip to Italy this year until I understood I was needed. REAL Green is about relative sacrifice and REALism with responsibilities. Anyway, I will likely be commenting lightly for some days.
Rick on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:03 am
Greed and ignorance are the root of all evil.
Rick on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:11 am
The only jerk on this site is Davy.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:40 am
The only Rick on this site is the troll juanpee. Rick/Gaia /juanpee one and the same your multiple personality has been outed.
Gaia on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 6:09 am
Both wealth and poverty should be eliminated from the face of the earth. All people have the right to the basic needs (food, water, shelter, medicine, clothing etc.).
Robert Inget on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 6:39 am
Jot down ultra white Denmark as a new Trump enemies list contender.
The search is on to find the joker who
first turned on Trump to possibly buying Greenland.
Woe is he or she who made Trump look like the fool he most certainly is.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 7:02 am
I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on my own blog, and to fly half way around the world cause it’s the REAL Flexible, REAL Responsible, REAL Green thing to do. All 7.7 billion of us need to make these small sacrifices from time to time. I sure hope the plane doesn’t crash. That would suck.
JuanP identity fraud on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 7:23 am
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 7:02 am
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 7:27 am
“fly half way around the world cause it’s the REAL Flexible, REAL Responsible, REAL Green thing to do. All 7.7 billion of us need to make these small sacrifices from time to time.”
Well, ID fraud Juanpee, my wife is there and very ill and they do not know why. I am going to be with her and I hop eto bring her home. I think that reflects responsibility.
“ I sure hope the plane doesn’t crash. That would suck.”
You would love for that to happen you obsessive stalking troll. If it does that is life.
Gaia on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 7:33 am
People, just ignore Davy. He is just a troll.
Robert Inget on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 8:34 am
Gala, Try setting an example, use your own name.
Editors of this page doesn’t seem to have an interest in ‘saving’ reasonable content and excluding childish off topic stupidity.
The ‘job’ of trolls or bots is to close down any web page deemed a threat to interests paying the ‘rent’ so to speak.
Peakoil.com no longer has a responsible comments page.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 10:02 am
Trump is the worst President ever to exist. He throws tantrums when things don’t go his way and is very narcissistic.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 10:14 am
Trump is a lowlife.
Dredd on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 10:52 am
“There Is No Normal”
Illogical. If there is no normal then there is no abnormal either.
There is abnormal (The Warming Science Commentariat – 15).
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 11:24 am
“Editors of this page doesn’t seem to have an interest in ‘saving’ reasonable content and excluding childish off topic stupidity”
The topic is about America coming apart at the seams Bobby. How many on topic posts do you read above? Including mine?
dumbass
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 12:11 pm
Davy, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 12:44 pm
I hope to retrieve my wife from Italy and bring her back to recover in Ozark, Missery. Although it’s 100 degrees and 100% humidity, due to my REAL green DEEP adaptation I have central air conditioning units running 24/7 inside my trailer.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 12:48 pm
I’m pretty sure her family will make her go with me if I dangle enough c-notes in front of them. You know how those greasy wops will do anything for a few singletons. That’s what trust funds are for.
By the way, I have the family Lear jet fueled up and waiting for me at Lambert Field. My REAL green DEEP adaptation allows for exceptions, don’t you know.
Keeping things real, people.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 1:50 pm
Lambert Field
wrong airport juanpee. I went through Springfield.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 1:53 pm
juanpee, you were on here last night until 2:00am then back on at 5:00am and on continuously since with socks and other nonsense. Have they given you a day pass from Douglas Mental Health facilities? I have never seen you so bad. Wow
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 2:04 pm
“Kyle Bass Summarizes The State Of The World: “This Is Insane!”
https://tinyurl.com/y4qwg6xh zero hedge
“Despite interest rates having bounced (albeit very modestly) in the last few days, prompting shrieks of “the lows for yields are in” once again, and hyped-up belief that ‘There Is No Alternative’ to dumping bonds and buying stocks at record highs, Hayman Capital fund manager Kyle Bass has a different view suggesting that a global re-awakening of easier-and-easier monetary policy will drive US rates to zero (and potentially beyond). “This is insane. The Japanese are going to keep going. The Chinese print money like it’s a national pastime today. Europe is going to restart QE.” During an interview with CNBC, Bass exclaimed: “We’re the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields,” “We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here.” For now, it appears that money is buying bonds AND stocks…Which, Bass notes, will spark even more inequality (as ‘assetholders’ get richer – in ever more diluted dollar terms while the rest suffer from inflationary living costs) “The unintended consequences of central bank printing are that it makes the rich even richer, it makes the middle class stay where they are and it makes the poor stay poor.” Bass also noted that he does not think a China trade deal is anywhere in sight. “I think Trump’s political calculus is to keep talking. If he does a deal, it will be too easy and he’ll get attacked from the right. If he does a deal that’s too difficult, they won’t sign it.”
juanpee on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 2:25 pm
“juanpee, you were on here last night until 2:00am then back on at 5:00am and on continuously since with socks and other nonsense.”
I know right? I’m super-human Davy. Either that or you’re the one with mental health issues. Take your pick.
dumbass
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 2:26 pm
The US should change its foreign policy- perhaps adopt an non-interventionist policy.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 2:49 pm
“I know right? I’m super-human Davy. Either that or you’re the one with mental health issues. Take your pick. dumbass”
juanpee, you are mindless and crave attention like a spoild brat. You get to see yourself on the comment board and play your stupid sock games and feel something. WTF, your rick, gaia and richard are shallow mindless online intellectual slobs. If you are going to spend so much time here at least inform us of something. What a waste of space on this earth. Go out and surf some of your small waves. Go play on a sailboat. go paddle board. you represent all that is wrong with the world as an egotistical low IQ Brat.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:16 pm
Holland: the great Britain wave-off Brexit beach party:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-day-beach-party-dutch-netherlands-amsterdam-wijk-aan-zee-a9072781.html
“Thousands sign up for Dutch Brexit beach party on 31 October ‘to watch Britain as it closes itself off’”
“The wine will be French, the beer will be German and the music will be a band playing Vera Lynn’s wartime classic We’ll Meet Again.”
““It will be a nice goodbye to a good friend who is going on an exciting adventure, but is perhaps not too bright,” party organiser Ron Toekook told the Netherlands-based news agency ANP”
“More than 7,000 people on Facebook had already signed up to partake in the celebration in the coastal village of Wijk aan Zee near Amsterdam at the time of writing. Another 52,000 had expressed an interest.”
“Mr Toekook said the main activities at the party would be “sitting in a deck chair with Dutch chips, French wine and German beer, watching Britain as it closes itself off”.”
Empire: rule Britannia
EU-member: cool Britannia
Brexit: fool Brittania
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:26 pm
All of Europe’s monarchies should be abolished and their assets frozen. No more special treatment for these freeloaders.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:30 pm
The genepool of the European monarchies are narrow, making them all related by blood.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:32 pm
Davy, you are wasting everybody’s time with your stupid rants. Enough!
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:38 pm
All parties involved now seem to accept that no-deal Brexit is the default, most likely position:
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/21/europe/boris-johnson-merkel-macron-brexit-intl/index.html
The UK is going to be swapped for a huge country, with immense nuclear arsenal, that DOES want to be European, catapulting Europe back to planetary pole position, where it belongs and has been for millenia.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/20/russia-is-deeply-european-frances-macron-says-in-russian-a66947
“Russia Is ‘Deeply European,’ France’s Macron Says in Russian”
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:40 pm
“All of Europe’s monarchies should be abolished and their assets frozen. No more special treatment for these freeloaders.”
All US bases in Eurasia should be abolished and send packing. No more free pass for these freeloaders.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:47 pm
I agree Cloggie.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:56 pm
Hey, Dick/Gaia/Rick (juanpee). You going to pull another all-nighter? You on drugs?
Chrome Mags on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 3:59 pm
“My generation, booming into adulthood, naively thought they could fix all that with Earth Day, tofu, and computers, and keep the great wheel rolling down into an even more glorious cybernetic nirvana.”
Now that’s great writing.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:00 pm
Davy, I’m 30 and I take care of my health (I don’t pollute my body). And no, I’m not on drugs.
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:02 pm
Davy, I don’t know you and you don’t know me.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:17 pm
US fiscal deficit could cross the 1 trillion line as early as 2020 (5%)
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/us-haushaltsdefizit-laut-experten-schon-2020-bei-mehr-als-einer-billion-dollar-a-1283068.html
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:26 pm
Trump has insulted the Danes and Greenlanders by talking about “buying” Greenland. Utterly disrespectful.
Cloggie on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:33 pm
We Europeans are willing to buy back the European beauty Melania from Donnie.
No?
Richard Guenette on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 4:48 pm
oui
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:18 pm
Hey, dick, Gaia is 30 too what a coincidence but your mastermind (juanpee) is in his 50’s and a jerk.
makati1 on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:35 pm
Davy, with a population of 7,700,000,000 plus, and an average life expectancy of about 70 years, there are at least 100,000,000 people who are aged 30. So what are you trying to prove? Your ignorance or just your delusional arrogance? Or both?
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 5:53 pm
Shut up makato, you comment on comments not the actual people and in his case the insane sock rants of your dumbass partner, juanpee. You can’t tell the difference between Richard, Gaia, and Rick. The reason you can’t is you have no personality awareness. You just want to broadcast how wonderful you are. You and juanpee have ruined this forum. You with your cocky stupid I am the best man here because I live in the p’s and juanpee with his mindless socks and ID theft of a mentally unstable egotistical fool.
makati1 on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 6:14 pm
Davy, I don’t spend my life being an asshole on PO like you do. And, it is an open forum so I can comment on what I want and debate with intelligent people, which excludes you.
Your delusional arrogance and worship of your terrorist government tells everyone that you are a brainwashed, psychotic fool trying to project intelligence you do not have.
Duncan Idaho on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 6:27 pm
“I am the chosen one,” he said, turning and looking up to the sky. “Somebody had to do it.”
Trump’s ego is reaching laughable and delusional proportions. .
Somebody may need to hold the Fat Boy down, and drug him more.
Davy on Wed, 21st Aug 2019 6:27 pm
Who says makato? Lol. You are the biggest asshole here but think you live the golden rule. You are a fraud. You are the dumbass who came out swinging BTW. Mind your own business blue hair.