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Page added on March 27, 2020

Hold My Beer, I Can Fix This

The yahoos in the photograph above are tired of cutting their respective country’s oil production only to watch the US shale oil industry grow its production and steal their market share. The world is swimming in crude oil, the price is headed for $15, or worse, and the EIA says the American shale oil sector is set to bring on another 18,000 BOPD in April. Look at the chart below and you’ll get a better understanding of why these two guys are pissed off.

But low oil prices are killing OPEC and Russia, just like America. With any conciliatory gesture and ensuing agreement from the United States to take oil off the market to help raise oil prices, OPEC and Russia would cut production and oil prices would rise. I’ll bet the ranch on that.

That gesture of cooperation is NOT going to come from an administration in Washington that believes $30 oil is good for America and that is trying to get re-elected in November with cheap gasoline.

Texas is the 3rd largest oil producing country in the world. The Federal government does not control oil and gas production in Texas, the people of Texas do thru our State Constitution and by reliance on the Railroad Commission of Texas to uphold laws that prevent resource waste and promote resource conservation.

Last week lame duck Texas Railroad Commissioner, Ryan Sitton, proposed that Texas re-implement a proration plan that would allow wells to be produced so many days per month thereby reducing production in Texas and allowing prices to rise. OPEC invited Mr. Sitton to its meeting to discuss this plan.

The US shale oil industry immediately started whining like little

girls about having to shut wells down. The Chairman of the Commission, Mr. Wayne Christian, immediately poo-poo’ed the

idea, accordingly. The shale oil lobby in Texas is strong and has lots of money; Scott Sheffield, for instance, recently said on CNBC that Exxon owns the American Petroleum Institute. The Chairman suggested the Commission no longer has the manpower to implement a proration plan and before Sitton’s plane landed in Vienna, the proration idea was DOA.

Shutting in frac-induced horizontal wells is probably not a good idea; it might lead to near wellbore skin damage, proppant embedment and fracture closure. It might hurt those wells in the long term; I get that. I say let them produce. Half the HZ wells in the Permian Basin already produce less than 50 BOPD and are at their economic limits (shaleprofile.com) and 80% of all Eagle Ford shale oil wells now make less than 50 BOPD. Mother Nature will sort all out that part of the oversupply problem soon enough; the terminal decline rates on shale oil wells after year five and six is stunning.

Approximately 38% of America’s current light tight oil production is less that a year old (shaleprofile.com). The far better way to show cooperation with the rest of the world to raise and stabilize oil prices, to save Texas jobs, bring capital back to a capital intensive industry, stop the waste of associated gas, preserve reservoir pressure and increase recovery of oil in place…

is to slow the frantic pace of drilling new wells on uneconomic spacing.

TRRC Map of Eagle Ford Shale Oil Wells Drilled on 330 foot spacing

That’s easy to do. I could fix that in a Midland minute but I need help from Austin. Lets resend all existing, applicable field rules that have previously been granted as exceptions to Texas Statewide Rule 37, immediately. The Texas Railroad Commission can do that; it will require less Commission manpower and fewer tax dollars. The basis for that rule can be found in the Texas Administrative Code, 16 TAC 3.37

(a) Distance requirements.

(1) No well for oil, gas, or geothermal resource shall hereafter be drilled nearer than 1,200 feet to any well completed in or drilling to the same horizon on the same tract or farm, and no well shall be drilled nearer than 467 feet to any property line, lease line…

Statewide Rule 37 is the law. We can mandate that no exceptions to Rule 37 even be heard at the Railroad Commission for at least 18 months. In the Permian Basin, where most of America’s oil future lies, that Wolfcamp oil is 300 million years old, it’s not going to “escape,” or disappear; when world oil prices stabilize, when infrastructure gets caught up and we don’t have to waste natural gas, we can go back in between these 1200 foot spaced wells and drill more wells. The short investment cycle of US shale oil, the time from spud to first production, makes it a perfect resource for helping control worldwide product prices and stable long term employment.

Continuous drilling provisions in Texas leases and other forms of mineral conveyances must follow Statewide spacing rules. Lenders that demand continuous drilling in their loan covenants can take a hike, as can hedge pledges. They’ll get over it, or they won’t; who cares? They made their own bed.

For all you ‘let-free-market-principles-prevail’ space cadets, nothing’s free about free enterprise when you are up to your ass in long term debt you can’t pay back. Cutting 2020 budgets will reduce drilling and lower production rates but as soon as prices recover, if they ever do recover, the shale oil industry will resume its out of control fiscal irresponsibility and we will be right back into an oversupply situation again. Russia and OPEC both know that. Waiting for budgets to reduce production output puts 70% of the shale oil industry at risk of bankruptcy and 1,000,000 people at risk of losing their job (Bloomberg).

If OPEC and Russia don’t get meaningful cooperation from Texas, they’ll destroy not only the US shale oil industry but the entire oil industry in Texas, and in the rest of America. And what Texas does the rest of the country will do; Commissioner Christian is wrong about. Following conservation law in Texas should not be dependent on what other states in the nation do.

Texas has always been a leader in the worldwide oil and natural gas industry. For 47 years, from 1930 to 1977, the Railroad Commission of Texas controlled the worldwide price of oil and it ensured the conservation of Texas resources for the benefit of our future. Ninety years later Texans are still enjoying the rewards of proper resource management. Its time once again for the Texas Railroad Commission to step up. For Texas and for America.

Re-implement Texas Statewide Rule 37 For America’s LONG TERM energy security !!

oilystuffblog by Mike Shellman

132 Comments on "Hold My Beer, I Can Fix This"

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 2:10 am

“But low oil prices are killing OPEC and Russia, just like America. With any conciliatory gesture and ensuing agreement from the United States to take oil off the market to help raise oil prices, OPEC and Russia would cut production and oil prices would rise. I’ll bet the ranch on that.
That gesture of cooperation is NOT going to come from an administration in Washington that believes $30 oil is good for America and that is trying to get re-elected in November with cheap gasoline.“

This yahoo from Texas admits that the current low oil price is not good for the US shale industry, which he equates with “not good for America”.

The truth is that conventional fossil from Russia and KSA is MUCH cheaper produced than shale from the US.

“Texas has always been a leader in the worldwide oil and natural gas industry.“

He can’t imagine that these days are over. There is a reason why European build wind energy is so big in “oil leader” Texas.

Throughout my childhood I saw Texaco signs in the streets in Holland. Mr. Mike Shalemen should get used to the picture of European wind turbines in his own American back yard, well until the day the Mexican government will take over the lone star state, up to the River Red.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 2:23 am

Nigel Fromage correctly stresses the importance of TESTING:

https://youtu.be/h4EU8xlE69M

Even more important is antibody testing, meaning identifying those people who already had Corona and whom may be tentatively assumed that they have achieved immunity.

National health systems should identify those people, issue a rubber-stamped corina health card with pass photo and clearly visible issue date. People with such a card around their necks should be allowed into shops, public transport, planes, restaurants, etc in order to kick-start the economy again.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 9:45 am

Dutch government corona update:

https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/epidemiologische-situatie-covid-19-in-nederland-27-maart-2020

Median age corona death: 81

The majority are men.

Life expectancy Dutch males “from birth”: 81

https://www.volksgezondheidenzorg.info/onderwerp/levensverwachting/cijfers-context/huidige-situatie#node-resterende-levensverwachting

In other words, aren’t we exaggerating a little with corona?

80% are obese. Corona mostly ticks people in the grave who are with one leg in the grave anyway. Should we seriously risk social anarchy and economic collapse with all the consequences for a few months additional national life expectancy?

Asking the question is answering it.

People who are 81 had their life lived to the max. Every additional month is a “grace of God”. Perhaps I can say this because I am somewhat old myself.

Makati on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 10:40 am

God Damn!, with the crash I’ll be selling my ass on the streets of Philly again!, just like the old days before I left for the Phillipines 🙁
Crikey fast back hand slappers and long suck ball clangers for me!

JuanP is stupid on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 10:52 am

Not makati1 but instead stupid juanPee:

Makati on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 10:40 am

triggered and deeply lovin supremacist muzzies zomg lol oh my goodness oh my dayme burger going ham you know the differnce between a weak burger and a burger that has strength and bite the fries and the fries bite back my man daym daym daymm on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 10:55 am

the weather in my head is variable and turbulent. Please disregard anything I say today as lunatic.

Jesus H.Christ II on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 11:16 am

A question for you my ‘under the weather’ good fellow – supertards vs muzzietards who would win?

Hellsings dirty Abraham! on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 11:18 am

No wonder they’re dying in Holland if the males are drinking 81 Caronas!

dissident on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 11:58 am

The only yahoo is the clown who wrote this chest thumping, brain dead drivel. What market share, tard-ass!? The US is a net importer of oil even after its “shale” (a lie) miracle. Tight oil has allowed the US to not experience full blown decline requiring imports of 20+ million barrels per day. As if the US market is the whole world market and KSA and Russia depend on this market. Put the pipe crack down.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 12:01 pm

Breaking, first royal dies from corona!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163227/First-royal-death-coronavirus-86-year-old-Princess-Maria-Teresa-Spain-dies.html

Oh and she is fokking 86

Big deal.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 12:12 pm

The Dutch electronics company Philips NV, subsidiary Pittsburgh, DID deliver the first 100 ventilator machines to the Netherlands, the remaining 900 will follow later.

There were reports in the leftist media that the Trump government would confiscate them. That didn’t happen.

Our apologies to president Trump!

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 12:32 pm

This will be the picture world-wide for the rest of the year:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162821/Inside-UKs-coronavirus-mega-hospital.html

“Inside UK’s first coronavirus mega-hospital: Hundreds of cubicles erected in ExCeL Centre while equipment is unloaded from ambulances before patients – as death toll jumps by 181 in a day and tougher social distancing rules may be put in place“

In the Southern hemisphere there is hardly corona. Could it be that the virus doesn’t like warm weather.

Rio de Janeiro Sat 2:38 pm Passing clouds. Warm. 81 °F
waoh supertard plese love supremacist muzzies more

please change ur underwear to stop beervirus (see what i did there, i basically shoved supertards into the train for auswitch:) )

triggered and deeply lovin supremacist muzzies zomg lol oh my goodness oh my dayme burger going ham you know the differnce between a weak burger and a burger that has strength you bite the fries and the fries bite back my man daym daym daymm on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 12:49 pm

Havana * Sat 1:48 pm Passing clouds. Pleasantly warm. 88 °F
On This Day…
Mar 28, 2006: Fort Salop, Pakistan
Rival clerics send their worshippers against each other: 26 Killed
ht supertard glenn roberts thereligionofpeace

Johannesburg Sat 7:52 pm Haze. Mild. 68 °F

Jesus H.Christ II on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 11:16 am

A question for you my ‘under the weather’ good fellow – supertards vs muzzietards who would win?

Dear (((supremetard))) Jesus H.Christ II

Very difficult to tell. seeing the entire kufar realm all shut down like this shows its extreme weakness. A good study of crusade history reveals involvement of politics on both sides, bloody battles, and a lot of luck. There are a lot of unfortunately mishaps that shift battles as well.

There’s no reason to believe with overwhelming technical superiority that supertards flying iron birds, smart missles, and nukualr can resounding defeat the army of camels and flying carpet.

our current crisis is motived by extreme love for ourselves and even grater love for supremacist muzzies.

this is because the last few decades had seen an explosion of social media which aims to connect us all together and to fit in. this is the only possible way to profit massively and make ecommerce sites immensively rich.

i watch both sides intently and i say there are very valiant defender of muzzism coming from supertards side too. they use high english exclusively. the love for supremacists muzzies is very deep among the elite, thus ensuring no technical superiority battel will ever happen against camel riding supremacists muzzies in modern times.

riggered and deeply lovin supremacist muzzies zomg lol oh my goodness oh my dayme burger going ham you know the differnce between a weak burger and a burger that has strength you bite the fries and the fries bite back my man daym daym daymm on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 1:06 pm

St. John’s * Sat 3:31 pm Snow flurries. Low clouds. Chilly. 34 °F

never attribute malice when imcompetencce and stupidity can simply explain

our supertards are motivated by extreme care and even grater love and care for supremacist muzzies.

the problem is this is the responsibilities of our caregivers and nurses, our supertards love us to death. just imagine a movie or something with a giant gorilla trying to pet a tiny whitey woman

the nurses and caregiver cares and actually do sonething useful for us

our supertards only care by locking us down, destroying whitey supetard president paul’s republic and resciend our liberty, all this is – in contrast with what nurses do – not usefl for us

Duncan Idaho on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 1:18 pm

“Something tells me America’s denial, playing down of this virus, lack of math and science skills/knowledge, and event arrogant attitude will guarantee American deaths per population and economic damage be greater than most western nations.”

Might be positive?

Moscow Sat 9:11 pm Partly sunny, cool 60 °F
you’d think a first world nation like USA would be able to manufacture some lousy masks. apparently there’s no manufacturing industry left that can operate profitably making low cost items.

But when the JIT supply chain a shut down we’re caught unprepared.

life is extremely complex – how complex?
if you walk into walmart and home depot, imagine you need all of the items in their shelves.

you don’t have enough money so obviously your life is not complete and you improvise a lot of those items. for the items that you don’t own, you rely on others who are improvsing or own those items.

and those things are normally needed on a low priority status. but all of them unfortunately can be promoted to critical status by circumstances.

For example, I can drive without windshield washer fluid. But while driving on a dirty stretch of roads, the windshield gets obscured so quicly that suddend stop is dangerous and continue driving is also dangerous. so in this case, windsheld washer fluid got promoted to critical need status

critical need status is face mask right now

triggered and deeply lovin supremacist muzzies hello this is debbie this is my first attemp at eharmony i love cats i love every kinds of cats so anyway im a cats lover and i love to run sry im being emotional im thinking about cats again on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 1:30 pm

Edmonton Sat 12:25 pm Cold. 13 °F
How coronavirus ‘deniers’ are using Facebook, WhatsApp and YouTube to spread conspiracy theories and misinformation about the deadly disease

srsly guyes at the DM, you have market cap of billions and thousands of supertard levels writers and you go against a tard and former paultard with a negative budget who makes money by reminding supertards to change thier underwear after 5 days.

and look what i found hehe

Thu 12 Dec 2019 18.58 GMT
Last modified on Thu 12 Dec 2019 20.15 GMT

Shares
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Daily Mail newspapers on a news stand.
Daily Mail newspapers at a newsagent. Photograph: Mike Kemp/Corbis via Getty Images

The hedge fund owned by the billionaire investor and anti-Brexit donor George Soros has made a £16m bet against shares in the owner of the Daily Mail newspaper.

hehe, so you went on the offensive to boost your economic situation and trade in currency of fear for beervirus

Davy on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 1:52 pm

Fuck that wacko shit idaho. You are one deranged idiot. You are another walking lie of inconsistent mental faculties.

Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 2:29 pm

You forgot the lipstick.

FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 3:56 pm

Covid-19 has exposed just how broken American economy & society are – a $2 trillion package alone won’t fix it

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/483987-coronavirus-american-economy-society-package/

JuanP on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 4:06 pm

This is one of my many pink poodle personalities. RT is anti-American rag I love to go to.

FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 28th Mar 2020 3:56 pm

Covid-19 has exposed just how broken American economy & society are – a $2 trillion package alone won’t fix it
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/483987-coronavirus-american-economy-society-package/

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:25 am

French scientists come with a home run corona article:

https://voxeu.org/article/rapidly-identifying-workers-who-are-immune-covid-19-and-virus-free-priority-restarting-economy

Priority should be given to IMMUNITY TESTS!

Currently the economy is held hostage by a minority of obese, 81 year old’s, who are with one leg in the grave anyway, even without corona.

What needs to be done is test and select healthy people, people who have corona behind them (the vast majority). We need to search for the CORONA MAN!

Those people can get back to work, have a beer in the pub, travel in the metro and what not. These people should visibly carry a sort of corporate badge with pass-photo and issue date as a sort of social passe partout.

Fat shaming is going to be great again!

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:37 am

Germany flying in corona patients from Italy.

Camera’s, camera’s, camera’s.

https://www.ad.nl/dossier-coronavirus/nu-meer-dan-900-patienten-op-ic-operatie-corona-is-race-tegen-de-klok~ab471cce/

It now comes out that before corona did hit Europe, the EU very well quietly DID support China with ventilation equipment:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_178

…but did so without camera’s. That was a little bit too noble. When China, Russia and Cuba began to support countries like Italy and Spain, they made a propagandist party out of it, complete with flags and (Russian) military vehicles crossing through NATO territory.

The Anglo 1945-colonizers of Europe begin to worry about Chinese incursions into “their territory”:

“Is China winning the coronavirus response narrative in the EU?”

They should be worried.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:38 am

Link:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-china-winning-the-coronavirus-response-narrative-in-the-eu/

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:41 am

AsiaDown

“China Suffers Economic Double-Whammy As Current Global Demand Collapse Follows Earlier Supply Crash”
https://tinyurl.com/rpbodtt zero hedge

“It’s a complete, dramatic turnaround,” Gao said, estimating that sales in April to May could plunge by 40% over the prior year. “Last month, it was our customers who chased after us checking if we could still deliver goods as planned. Now it’s become us chasing after them asking if we should still deliver products as they ordered.” A twin shock has emerged, one where China shuttering most of its industrial base from mid-January through early March, generated a supply shock. Now, as those Chinese firms add capacity, expecting to be met with a surge in demand from Western companies, that is not the case and is resulting in a demand shock. “It is definitely the second shockwave for the Chinese economy,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. The pandemic across the world “will affect China manufacturing through two channels: disrupted supply chains and declining external demand.”…This means many Chinese firms are struggling to survive, running out of cash, and on the brink of bankruptcy as demand from abroad has collapsed.”… The twin shocks, first being a supply shock, originating from shutdowns in China, then a demand shock, now coming from the Western world, is the evolution of the global economic crash that is unfolding right in front of us. The world is headed for a depression, if not already in one, as central banks are frantically deploying MMT and unleashing helicopter money to save the world.”

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:44 am

New Silk Road:

https://www.verkehrsrundschau.de/nachrichten/article-2586605.html

NSR rail-traffic China-Europe almost back at pre-crisis levels, that is 35-40 trains per week. Trains filled with computers, solar panels, mobile phones and what not.

https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2020/03/28/first-freight-train-on-its-way-from-wuhan-to-europe/

“First freight train on its way from Wuhan to Europe”

Rapid growth of this kind of rail-traffic is to be expected in the coming years.

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:46 am

Global Pandemic Preparedness – Which Country Is The Most (And Least) Ready For COVID-19?
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/health-security-index.jpg?itok=8Z_PEmKL

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:47 am

“Rapid growth of this kind of rail-traffic is to be expected in the coming years.”

Not anymore…glum

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 3:53 am

“More Evidence China Is Lying; Number Of Urns More Than Double Reported Coronavirus Deaths”
https://tinyurl.com/snxyslp zero hedge

“Yet, Chinese investigative outlet Caixin revealed that when mortuaries opened back up this week, photos revealed a far greater number of urns than reported deaths. In one, a truck loaded with 2,500 urns can be seen arriving to the Hankou Mortuary. According to the report, the driver said he had delivered the same amount the previous day.”

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 4:01 am

“More Evidence China Is Lying”

For a country of 1350 million is it completely irrelevant if 3000 or 30000, 81 year old obese people died.

I don’t trust Chinese numbers either. What I do believe is that they have their crisis “somewhat under control”.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 4:08 am

Corona planet. German and Danish love birds meet at the (closed) border every day, while keeping 1.5 m distance:

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article206863377/Corona-trennte-sie-Deutsch-daenisches-Liebespaar-trifft-sich-taeglich-direkt-an-der-Grenze.html

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 4:16 am

Ferrera Erbognone in Northern Italy, is a scientific tidbit:

https://www.ed.nl/buitenland/bewoners-italiaans-stadje-blijken-allemaal-immuun-voor-coronavirus~a403ff67/

The more than 1000 inhabitants turn out ALL to be immune for corona. Nobody has an explanation why. Research is underway.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 4:28 am

How to strengthen your immune system? Cold showers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX5lUUQ2dlc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cum0YI354Y

I myself have practiced it since January 1 every single day for more than a minute, full blast since 2 months. The first time I could hold out 5 seconds, after 1 months I had a record of 5 minutes. Now I got used to it and finish the daily morning shower with at least 1 minute cold (verified by a clock on the soap plateau), using the hand douche for places that are extra sensitive for cold water, like the back and top of the head; the chest is easiest to bear.

It is impossible to prove that it helped against corona, which I think I had 70/30, without testing. But it certainly makes you much more robust, physically and mentally by rigorously smashing your comfort zone. It certainly gives you an energy boost and it makes you more awake than a litter of coffee can achieve.

REAL Green on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 4:54 am

This contagion is organic but just as dangerous is the systematic side. One is a near term quickly propagating illness killing and sowing fear. The other is a very real and lasting damage to the organs of economic activity. This is not a normal economic shock. It is also a shock that came along with the baggage of a period of economic dislocation of a decade of central bank intervention with debt growth and repressed rates. This shock and that peaking of central bank dislocation is now upon us at the same time the health issues continue.

We have those who do not understand economics claiming health care takes precedence. I agree drastic actions are called for but there must be an honesty for the consequences and then honest debate. This is a catch 22 of options with longer term negative health consequences resulting with people disenfranchised from support networks. Exposure kills too and this exposure will be systematic. This again comes down to triage but not related to ventilators but economic support longer term. The balancing of this situation means economic activity must return soon or the consequences will likely be felt harshly longer term. It is possible we will never return to the activity of 2019 levels.

It is not yet known if there is a silver lining to this drop. In some ways a cleansing recession is necessary but was delayed. A reset to something too painful to entertain just months ago. Years of economic inconsistencies of malinvestment and moral hazard have built up. A recession will begin to clean this up. The world might be stronger will less globalism and more local economic activity. Do we really need all the consumerism and modern leisure? There are many things that can be mopped up and dumped down the drain and we will be a better people.

Yet, first we must plan on exiting this crisis that is economic and organic. Likely there will be a new reality in both spheres. There might be a new respect for borders. We not only have this human virus but also animal viruses. This indicates at the level of the organics of globalism we are exposed to dangerous risk from interconnectivity indicating an improper scale has become a common sense reality. The economic contagion of disrupted supply chains and financial contagions indicate maybe globalism interconnectivity has gone too far here too. It is uncertain if we can disentangle ourselves without causing great economic pain. It should be clear many things and networks will not be possible without robust globalism so real abandonment is ahead if globalism is throttled down.

It may be the case the world can take steps to localize and reduce exposure but it has to get back to work to find out. The modern global economy is complex with complicated networks and systems. The longer it is down the more risk of part or all of it not rebooting. We do not have the luxury of saving everyone in health and business. This needs to be about lifeboats and hospices not “failure is not an option” and “nobody is left behind”. That world is no longer possible. The way forward is not clear but what is clear is this is a trap that is compounded by a world of many problems that cannot be left unmitigated. Entropic decay does not sleep. The immediate course of action might need to be a triage of steps that are hybrid economic and health. It should be understood this means taking steps that will open doors that will not be gone back through. This will be about going through doors with unknowns but remaining is not an option. Death is upon us both organic and economic so this calls for acceptance. It is only through acceptance that we can go forth in real efforts with a morale needed to achieve some kind of security that offers hope and confidence. That represents true liquidity and the absence collapse.

This virus has been a great equalizer and catalyst. It might be what was needed to bring about a change that is called for. A new level of stability for a system that has been extended too far into a brittle resilience and unsustainability. A threshold has broken offering a forced pathway of succession to something possibly less risk prone if we survive. In any case the journey will be painful in uncharted waters but a journey that is global for everyone. No one can afford to damage the lifeboat thinking they can gain an edge with everyone so exposed to collapse. Maybe this will draw the world closer to a common goal or it may be our end with a dramatically new world waiting somewhere way down below.
realgreenadaptation.blog

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 5:00 am

“It is impossible to prove that it helped against corona, which I think I had 70/30, without testing. But it certainly makes you much more robust, physically and mentally by rigorously smashing your comfort zone. It certainly gives you an energy boost and it makes you more awake than a litter of coffee can achieve.”

I go out everyday into the cold and soon the heat to take care of animals or load an outdoor wood stove etc. There are not options for me to this. I also work out both weights and running. I fast twice a week the whole day. There is no silver bullet prescription except being lazy both with mind and body is not an option. It also requires basic common sense with health. Take care of things even if it is work. The future ahead will be a world of less comfort with more suffering so suck it up.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 5:38 am

International corona update:

Netherlands (first things first):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

Less new cases, less deaths

Jerrystan:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Less new cases, less deaths

Brexitania:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Less new cases, more deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Slightly more new case, less deaths

USA:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

More new cases, more deaths

REAL Green on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 5:40 am

Maybe modern people are too afraid of dying like our ancestors did. The world had a few decades of advancements that made us feel special. The human of this possible new age will have to toughen up. Our expectations of longer life and retirement gone. Oops that is already the case for 6BIL people so maybe the virus took us back to the third world where we belong. To be realistic many in the 3rd world will die because for them there is no going further down. It could be we can take the best of what we learned about common sense health and welfare and triage out the bad habits picked up along the way of affluence. This requires mature people.

I am a green prepper and part of the prepping is mental. The things of green prepping are only part of it. Behavior is more important because of the wisdom of what to give up. For many people prepping is not an option. Keeping your head above water in this delocalized word of frayed social arrangement is the immediate issue. Yet, there is lots of wealth out there too. There are many people who have the means to change their life towards something more resilient and sustainable but the alternatives were too seductive. Comfort and enjoyments are very hard to forgo when the alternative is hard work and less things. This is also true of social organizations so even though people may not be able to change individually because they can’t afford it, they can come together in community and do it.

We are in a culture that denies death and it feels decoupled from the planet because of technology. One need only listen to the super rich and outposts on Mars. How absurd is that? Maybe we need outposts on earth. We hopefully can make it through this but there is a price to be paid. Nuk plants have to be maintained is one that comes to mind. Doors were opened that are shut tight and locked. We need to get our shit together real quick like. In that process we should reflect on the 19th century not as a time of growth and technological capability but the other way of decline and abandonment. This means pain and death but it does not have to mean we don’t survive. It means many won’t survive and that is the way humanity used to live until we decided to modernize and shit in our nest in the process.

In this paradigm shift thrust on us in a matter of months we should be in sober thinking of a common survival or common death. We should think triage and hybridization. Some people will die. People will have to live with less. Food will have to be grown along with home economics at home not in China. Some of you might laugh at that but really do you think technology will get us out of the hole we are in now. Value chains are collapsing all around. Complexity going into succession. Economic abandonment, dysfunctional networks and irrational attitudes of a world no longer.

I have been living a life of one foot in and one foot out and it is not easy out. It does not make economic sense either. I am doing permaculture farming and low carbon living but as a way of life not because it is economically smarter. I still shop on Amazon and go to Lowes. I did this in a surreal understanding of how fragile it is. I did it to fortify my little life with best things and practices with the understanding unless my community is also fortified then I just bought a few months of survival. Going forward now in this paradigm shock there must be a corresponding behavioral change plus a wisdom to know what to keep and what to discard. Likely this will not work out very nice at the top since it means disenfranchisement that people are no longer able to accept but you as an individual and or your community can. This is a time of collapsing in place in anticipation of a new world of less.
realgreenadaptation.blog

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 5:45 am

“A Global Consumer Default Wave Is Just Getting Started in China”
https://tinyurl.com/wnprkq5 bloomberg

“The early indicators from China aren’t pretty. Overdue credit-card debt swelled last month by about 50% from a year earlier, according to executives at two banks who asked not to be named discussing internal figures. Qudian Inc., a Beijing-based online lender, said its delinquency ratio jumped to 20% in February from 13% at the end of last year. China Merchants Bank Co., one of the country’s biggest providers of consumer credit, said this month that it “pressed the pause button” on its credit-card business after a “significant” increase in past-due loans. An estimated 8 million people in China lost their jobs in February. “These issues in China are a preview of what we should expect throughout the world,” said Martin Chorzempa, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.”

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 6:17 am

Do we really want this?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164403/Britain-stay-locked-JUNE-says-leading-adviser.html

“Health chief says we must stay locked down until JUNE: UK could be made to remain at home for nearly three months to avoid worst effects of coronavirus and practice social distancing until October”

Country held hostage by obese 81 year old’s and excessive humanism; anarchy, famine, economic collapse almost pre-programmed.

Better alternative:

– rapidly develop immunity tests, give large degree of freedom to those who are over corona and give them a national health system certified badge
– lock-down only for risk groups, like obese 81 year old’s
– give young people more “freedom” (like to work or study), but keep social distancing, hygiene, no large gatherings like soccer matches

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 6:17 am

Anyone else see the irony?

Five percent of the world population has twenty percent of the world COVID-19 cases. Interesting huh?

JuanP on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 6:39 am

juanPee is up trolling

Davy on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 6:48 am

“Don’t Look Now But The People Responsible For The World’s Food Supply Are Starting To Get Sick”
https://tinyurl.com/ukeqgd7 zero hedge

“If we can’t flatten the curve, then that is going to affect farmers and farm laborers — and then we have to make choices about which crops we harvest and which ones we don’t. We hope no one gets sick. But I would expect some of us are going to get the virus.” And to clarify, it’s not the food itself that causes the threat of the virus. It’s the supply chain disruption that the virus can cause with workers”

joe on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 6:50 am

Rioting in Wuhan!

Wuhan City STILL locked down. You can swim in ur fish bowl peasents but they ain’t being let out to infect the rest of china. My guess its rampant in Wuhan city and they are just gonna let the people die off.

“www.thesun.ie/news/5257950/coronavirus-riots-erupt-near-wuhan-as-locals-leave-quarantine-only-to-be-told-they-cant-travel-anywhere-else-in-china/amp/”

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 8:03 am

“Wuhan City STILL locked down.”

Nobody denies that. New is that people can go into the city, but still not out.

“My guess its rampant in Wuhan city and they are just gonna let the people die off.”

Your guess is plain wrong. No government can afford to let a population “die off”. The partial unlocking of Wuhan is real. I don’t trust those 3000 deaths number, probably a factor 3-10 higher. Breitbart’s 21 million is ridiculous. It took efficient Germans 2 full years to cremate 300,000 in 6 concentration camps, inmates who died from typhus. It is impossible for Chinese to burn 21 million in 2 months time without anybody noticing it and put it on youtube.

https://www.iceagenow.info/dr-fauci-concedes-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-may-be-much-closer-to-a-very-bad-flu/

“Dr. Fauci Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu”

We are exaggerating corona. Corona isn’t very mortal, it is highly infectious and IF you get it, you die a horrible death, that’s the difference with a normal flu.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 8:13 am

Next week is cold in the Netherlands, but the week after Springtime! 17C!

Different topic, the taking-out-of business of the last KLM Boeing 747. If you want to know why the Netherlands are such a good wind energy country, follow the Amsterdam Airport live stream:

https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/264566/straks-live-laatste-boeing-747-400-van-klm-landt-op-schiphol

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 8:29 am

More lockdown-skepsis from the Marxist-who-wised-up, Peter Hitchins:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

“PETER HITCHENS: There’s powerful evidence this Great Panic is foolish, yet our freedom is still broken and our economy crippled”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164767/Michael-Gove-hints-looming-austerity-massive-coronavirus-bailouts.html

“Britain faces years of austerity after government’s massive coronavirus bailouts amid fears of 2.75million jobless by June and a 10% hit to GDP”

Not a good idea.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 8:41 am

Detroit and New Orleans are next, could replace NYC as next hotspot:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164735/Experts-warn-coronavirus-hotspots-including-Detroit-New-Orleans-WORSE-NYC.html

However, number of corona dead world-wide: 30,000

Spanish flu in contrast: 17-50 million

Modern westerners are snow-flakes, who can’t accept that life is finite. Death isn’t “horrible”, but normal as birth. It is a painful loss in case of a loved-one, but after a serene week, life goes on.

REAL Green on Sun, 29th Mar 2020 8:56 am

“Anticipatory Resilience & Preparedness for the Coronavirus and Beyond Policy & Societal Interventions”
https://tinyurl.com/uxtolh5 Korowicz human systems PDF

Hold My Beer, I Can Fix This

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