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Page added on August 8, 2017
Our Photovoltaic Future: The Metabolic Revolutions of the Earth’s History
Olivia Judson published a very interesting paper this March on “Nature Ecology & Evolution“. It is a wonderful cavalcade along 4 billion years of the history of the Earth, seeing it in terms of five “metabolic revolutions.” It is an approach that goes in parallel with a paper that I wrote last year on BERQ; even though I focussed on the future rather than on the past. But my paper was very much along the same lines, noting how some of some of the major discontinuities in the Earth’s geological record are caused by metabolic changes. That is, the Earth’s changes as the life inhabiting it “learns” how to exploit the potential gradients offered by the environment: geochemical energy at the very beginning and, later on, solar energy.
Seen in these terms, the Earth system is a gigantic autocatalytic reaction that was ignited some four billion years ago, when the planet became cool enough to have liquid water on its surface. Since then, it has been flaring in a slow-motion explosion that has been going faster and faster for billions of years, until it is literally engulfing the whole planet, sending offshoots to other planets of the solar system and even outside it.
Judson correctly identifies the ability to control fire as the latest feature of this ongoing explosion. Fire is a characteristic ability of human beings and can be argued that it is the defining feature of the latest time subdivision of the planet’s history: the Anthropocene.
Judson stops with fire, calling it “a source of energy” and proposing that “The technology of fire may also, perhaps, mark an inflection point for the Solar System and beyond. Spacecraft from Earth may, intentionally or not, take Earthly life to other celestial objects.” Here, I think the paper goes somewhat astray. Calling fire a “source” of energy is not wrong, but we need to distinguish whether we intend fire as the combustion of wood, that humans have been using for more than a million years, and the combustion of fossil hydrocarbons, used only during the past few centuries. There is a big difference: wood fires could never take humans to contemplate the idea of expanding beyond their planetary boundaries. But fossil energy could fuel this expansion at most for a few centuries and this big fire is already on its way to exhaustion. If the Anthropocene is to be based on fossil fuels, it is destined to fade away rather rapidly.
The great chemical reaction is still flaring up and its expansion is going to take us somewhere far away, even though, at present, we can’t say where.
A new lifeform, just appeared in the Earth’s ecosystem:
(**) The supporters of nuclear energy may argue that the next metabolic revolution should be seen as the production of energy from nuclear fission or fusion. The problem is that the resources of fissionable material in the whole solar system are too small that they could hardly fuel a truly new geological epoch. As for fusion, we haven’t found a technology able to control it in such a way to make it an earth-based source of energy and it may very well be that such a technology doesn’t exist. But, on the sun, fusion works very well, so why bother?
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
130 Comments on "Our Photovoltaic Future: The Metabolic Revolutions of the Earth’s History"
bigtard on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 11:20 pm
boat I observed that the fuel gauge in American and Japanese are f and e. In German is 0 and 1. There’s seems to be an affinity to measurement in German language. This may be an edge of sort. Chomsky would know. He studies languages
GregT on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 11:33 pm
“Germans are the #1 ethnic group in the US.”
At 17%. The other 83% of the U.S. Population are not of German decent. The largest minority group for sure.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:22 am
“So when do the oil shortages start and what is going to trigger the event.”
According the IEA, 2020, or around 36 months from now.
Global oil supply to lag demand after 2020 unless new investments are approved soon
HOUSTON – Global oil supply could struggle to keep pace with demand after 2020, risking a sharp increase in prices, unless new projects are approved soon, according to the latest five-year oil market forecast from the International Energy Agency.
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/march/global-oil-supply-to-lag-demand-after-2020-unless-new-investments-are-approved-so.html
Makati1 on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 1:32 am
GregT, that is assuming that the current financial system lasts until 2020. The “shortage” could begin sooner if the ability to borrow to finance ends. We shall see.
Makati1 on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 1:49 am
Americans are dropping like flies because the drug war against them is winning…
“Drug-overdose deaths in 2015 killed 52,000 Americans, more than gun homicides or car accidents. Preliminary data suggest that number grew to nearly 60,000 in 2016. In one Ohio county, deaths from drug overdoses – the bulk of which were caused by powerful synthetic opioids like fentanyl – surpassed deaths from homicides, suicides and car crashes combined.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-08/opioid-crisis-even-worse-we-thought
It$ ju$t bu$$ine$$! Good for the GDP. LMAO
peakyeast on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:11 am
@mak: Are you trying to spin a negative tale to a positive one?
Every single one of those 60.000 died happilly – hell they would even demand it if they could. It is a very good solution to mitigating overpopulation. No force is needed. Its cheap. The ones dying are happy.
What could be better – except perhaps for the through-put time?
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:41 am
So, 60% is not significant? iMA, you got any references for that 40% figure
Yesterday-night when I wrote that post I saw a link with 40%. That was probably before the fuel price crash.
Here is a 2015 link that says 29%:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2902082/The-TRUE-cost-transatlantic-travel-Infographic-reveals-airlines-pocket-just-4-London-New-York-flights-just-pay-tax-ticket.html
Simple calculation:
ticket cost = fuel cost + rest
Ticket Amsterdam-NYC $600
fuel cost 30% or $180
oil price $50/barrel
If fuel cost doubles to $100/barrel, fuel cost will become $360 and ticket price $760.
That means share fuel cost in total ticket price will be 360/760=47%
If fuel price would return to its max to date, namely $150/barrel, fuel cost would become $540 and ticket price $940 and share 540/940=57%
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:59 am
Germans are the #1 ethnic group in the US. So you got to go Natzis to go any where?
The Germans maybe 17%, but they were not the best Germans who went to the US. The best Germans you got, got there in captivity. Soviet space program same story.
Last year I cycled to Gothenburg/Sweden and made a canal trip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUZLp1rg1VU
The Swedish female guide told her audience that ca. 100 years ago there were ca 4 million Swedes. At some point there was a famine and no less than 1 million Swedes fled to the US land of milk and honey (all figures from the top of my head).
Your ancestors were perhaps among them. A bible and a hand full of seeds, that was mostly it.
The New Colossus
“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
I hope you don’t mind that I am looking forward to the day that the huddled masses and their kosher overlords no longer lord over Europe. And if you distance yourself from “exceptionalism”, a sort of 2nd hand Chosenness, you are even invited to join. Half of you.
https://postimg.org/image/n7wrkxs6z/
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 3:53 am
European North Sea Energy Alliance.
The North Sea is loaded with infrastructure of the outgoing oil & gas age. Cleaning it up (“decommissioning”) will cost up to 100 billion euro.
But does it have to be?
There are now plans in the works to reuse existing infrastructure like empty oil & gas fields and pipelines for storage and transport of renewably produced hydrogen:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/european-north-sea-energy-alliance/
Perhaps an idea for the Gulf of Mexico?
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 6:00 am
makat, where are the references for your headlines dumbass? We need a board rule against intellectually sloppy.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 6:05 am
“Actually boatytard, fat, corn-fed bible-thumping retards are the #1 ethnic group in the uS.”
Mouse, there are more shiny, smart, and productive people in the US than all of your stupid little non country called Canada. You stupid Canadians maybe have a few million and they don’t frequent this board as you make example of. Hypocrites and intellectually lazy assholes frequent this board as you are an example of.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 6:09 am
This site is stupid sometimes. You leave your reply on one thread and it bounces over to another. let’s try this again:
makat, where are the references for your headlines dumbass? We need a board rule against intellectually sloppy.
“Actually boatytard, fat, corn-fed bible-thumping retards are the #1 ethnic group in the uS.”
Mouse, there are more shiny, smart, and productive people in the US than all of your stupid little non country called Canada. You stupid Canadians maybe have a few million and they don’t frequent this board as you make example of. Hypocrites and intellectually lazy assholes frequent this board as you are an example of.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 6:10 am
I give up on stupid
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 6:25 am
“If fuel price would return to its max to date, namely $150/barrel, fuel cost would become $540 and ticket price $940 and share 540/940=57%”
Cloggie quit digging your hole deeper. Your fantasy of electric flight is just a dream. You pollute this board with your dreams. Please stick to the facts. You present the board with some wonderful news and ideas why cheapen it with your agenda of Eurotard domination by being the renewable future pioneer. There is more to what we face than energy. There are so many issues that are predicaments that will only get worse because they are converging with others. You techno optimist only have techno gadgets to promote your agenda. This is only part of the solution and often times the reason for another problem. It is a vicious circle of development and decline.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 7:01 am
“@mak: Are you trying to spin a negative tale to a positive one? Every single one of those 60.000 died happilly”
Peakie we all love Sarc/funny with devious intensions. Peakie, you ever been to the States? You are getting sucked into makatism of extremism and cherry picked facts. I don’t drink. I have not had a drink in 11 years. I don’t do drugs. I rarely use a pain killer like Advil. None of my neighbors around me here drink and drug. There are pockets of it around me. It is often location dependent and class dependent. Try googling the number of people in the US that don’t drink at all.
You see, peakie, this is a land of contrast. We are a 3rd world and 1st world country. You Eurotards like to blame and complain about us without understanding the type of country we are. You like to cherry pick a problem and generalize it. We have a big drug problem but not all Americans are on drugs and drunks. You Eurotards have some of the worst drinking issues in the developed world with only Russia worse.
You anti-Americans love to hear makat because he tells you what you want to here. You like the idea of a failing US. It is music to your ears. Makat is just an old man who rants his hate daily because he has never come to terms with his failed US life. I think it is a homosexual thing but he is in denial of that. He lives with a boyfriend but says it is only platonic. LOL. BTW, I have nothing against homosexuals just be honest about it.
Antius on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 7:33 am
‘Cloggie quit digging your hole deeper. Your fantasy of electric flight is just a dream.’
The energy density of lithium ion batteries is 0.36–0.875MJ/kg according to Wiki. That’s 1-2.5% of jet fuel, but then again electric motors are 90% efficient at optimum speeds. A gas turbine is about 30% at best.
So, a crude estimate of aircraft range would be 3-7.5% of an equivalent jet fuelled by kerosene. A 747 has a range of 9,800km. So you might expect an electric aircraft to have range 294-882km if fuel mass is the same.
No good for long haul flights. Amsterdam to NY is 5,859km! Short flights could be a niche market that this type of aircraft could exploit. Amsterdam to Paris is about 500km. Amsterdam to Berlin is 650km. London to Glasgow is about 650km.
A unit of grid electricity is presently a little cheaper than a unit of mechanical power from a jet engine. So an electric aircraft isn’t a ridiculous idea. But its applications are limited by the poor energy density of Li-ion batteries compared to diesel.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:01 am
“A unit of grid electricity is presently a little cheaper than a unit of mechanical power from a jet engine. So an electric aircraft isn’t a ridiculous idea. But its applications are limited by the poor energy density of Li-ion batteries compared to diesel.”
Antius, the other issue is then the scaling up of the production of these aircraft and in addition the infrastructure to accept these aircraft. When we look at the economies of scale of such an effort it is mind boggling. Look at how many years of development went into the incremental development of the modern jet airliner. We are talking years to prefect electric flight then years to build this to profitability at the same time the grid and other transport is being transformed in the effort to go 100% renewable. It is easy to talk the technicals but it is far more difficult to take those technicals and commercialize them. The degree of commercialization of mass air travel is huge. Think of all the airports that will need to be retrofitted. All the mechanics that will need retraining. This also represents another huge amount of solar and wind energy collection. What are these airport sites going to do in extreme locations?
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:13 am
Cloggie quit digging your hole deeper. Your fantasy of electric flight is just a dream. You pollute this board with your dreams. Please stick to the facts.
I do nothing but presenting facts. Personally I’m no fan of flying (3 hours max to some Greek island is the limit for me) and am certainly no fan of hundreds of millions of people going to places where they don’t really belong.
Nevertheless, I can’t close my eyes for developments in this particular field. I was amazed myself yesterday (and you probably too) when I learned that it takes less energy to bring two humans over the alps in a small plane than it takes by car.
700 km on 82 kWh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr3dX2EClDg
In contrast an Opel Ampera needs 1kWh for 8km or 87.5 kWh for 700 km, so slightly more than this plane:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/21/opel-ampera-e-chevrolet-bolt/
And this figure only applies if the car can travel over highways and not country roads or lands in traffic jams.
These are FACTS and not fiction. No wonder that the big guys at Airbus and Boeing are interested. Air-traffic is a gigantic polluter, but this e-plane concept could provide a means for them to escape societal ostracizing. The great advantage of e-motors is that they weigh virtually nothing. Ca. 11 kg for these small planes.
These planes are clean and silent.
Antius is of course right in pointing at the low embodied energy of batteries. But what if you add renewable produced high-energy hydrogen to the mix, in combination with fuel cells? Then the sky is the limit, pun intended.
Antius on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:34 am
“Antius, the other issue is then the scaling up of the production of these aircraft and in addition the infrastructure to accept these aircraft. When we look at the economies of scale of such an effort it is mind boggling. Look at how many years of development went into the incremental development of the modern jet airliner. We are talking years to prefect electric flight then years to build this to profitability at the same time the grid and other transport is being transformed in the effort to go 100% renewable. It is easy to talk the technicals but it is far more difficult to take those technicals and commercialize them. The degree of commercialization of mass air travel is huge. Think of all the airports that will need to be retrofitted. All the mechanics that will need retraining. This also represents another huge amount of solar and wind energy collection. What are these airport sites going to do in extreme locations?”
Correct of course. The logistics of deploying the electric plane are mind boggling. It may well be that it is not an economically attractive option when all these issues are accounted for. But in principle at least it could be made to work within its limitations. I can see two big issues that I didn’t mention before: (1) charging time. To get good economics on short-haul flights, rapid turn-around is very beneficial; (2) the weight of the motor. Electric plane concepts I have seen tend to assume the use of super-conducting motors. That is a big technical uncertainty, I would suggest.
“Antius is of course right in pointing at the low embodied energy of batteries. But what if you add renewable produced high-energy hydrogen to the mix, in combination with fuel cells? Then the sky is the limit, pun intended.”
Hydrogen is a very inefficient means of storing expensive renewable energy. You lose at least half of your usable exergy to losses in electrolysis and liquefaction and then at least another half due to unavoidable Carnot losses in the heat engine at other end. And it isn’t good as a jet fuel due to poor energy density (8.5MJ/litre). After it is burned in a gas turbine at 30% efficiency, a litre of fuel yields just 2.5MJ of mechanical power. Probably worse than any of those issues is the safety and logistics problems of dealing with liquid hydrogen. Your idea of the electric plane would be less complicated and might be economically competitive in the near-term, provided you can accept its severe range limitations.
A liquefied natural gas powered aeroplane on the other hand would have no less range than a conventional jumbo and would not require much change in engine technology. Your precious wind energy can run the liquefaction plant.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 10:38 am
Mankind hasn’t even figured out the basic necessities of life for 7.5 billion people without fossil fuels. Food, water, shelter, and security, and now you guys are on about maintaining air travel? Think small, local, and living much simpler lives, with much less energy, in a far less hospitable and comfortable world. If any of humanity makes it through the bottleneck at all.
peakyeast on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 11:25 am
@Davy: Please point to where I said all Americans are drug addicts.. Because I sure cant find it.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 11:45 am
Leave it to Davy, to turn a study published in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine, on the undesirable deaths of American citizens, into an Anti-american rant.
Unbelievable.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 11:50 am
Another summer holiday season is nearly over Davy. Go do something constructive and memorable, like taking your boys fishing.
Antius on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:00 pm
One here for Cloggie:
http://www.eng.ox.ac.uk/systemseng/publications/Ammonia-based_ESS.pdf
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:05 pm
Good find Antius.
Maybe we can figure out a way to use that technology to get to the nearest known possibly inhabitable planet, for when we finally finish off this one.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:13 pm
Oops. Habitable planet. Using best known current human tech, we should be able to travel there in a few tens of thousands of years. Or we could just stop fucking up this one…..
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:27 pm
Thanks Antius. Added your link to this post:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/04/08/ammonia-as-storage-medium/
peakyeast on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 12:29 pm
@Greg: I still feel the best possibility is to hide on the backside of the moon together with the Nazi and Russians nuclear test bases – and then wait it out. 😀
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 1:38 pm
“Leave it to Davy, to turn a study published in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine, on the undesirable deaths of American citizens, into an Anti-american rant. Unbelievable.”
Sorry, grehg, it is you and your other anti-American hate crew that are unbelievable. You guys revel in American deaths. It makes you so happy but since you are such a hypocritical backstabber you act like you care. I think that is what is so disgusting about you grehg. You are the most dangerous of personalities. You present yourself as a moderate caring individual with loving family and a respected member of the community but the reality is you are a cold blooded hateful person. If a NUK hit a US city it would please you so much but you would never show it. You know because the ends justifies the means and your wish is for the US to be destroyed. If some innocent’s die that is ok per your ethics. You are worse than the people you hate because you are a liar.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 1:43 pm
Clog/Antius, you know Mat Simmons was talking about wind farms and ammonia as a storage medium years ago.
dave thompson on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:23 pm
Hear here, you want alt energy? How about a little child labor to go with it? http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/08/alternative-energy-may-cost-earth.html
dave thompson on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:36 pm
This little tidbit tells just how green your alt energy world can be. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/solar-panels-linked-to-rise-in-potent-new-greenhouse-gas/83751/
dave thompson on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:39 pm
This is a good look see too. https://youtu.be/yMIH0ufEaKc
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 2:39 pm
“Sorry, gregg,”blah blah blah blah American hate crew, blah blah blah revel in American deaths, blah blah blah hypocritical backstabber, blah blah blah blah you are a cold blooded hateful person, blah blah blah your wish is for the US to be destroyed, blah blah blah you are a liar.”
Fuck are you ever over the top Davy, and completely full of delusional shit.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 3:43 pm
Obviously I made my point grehg. Your whining only makes you look more guilty of being a bad person. What a wonderful example of the worst of what Canada has to offer.
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 3:59 pm
Hear here, you want alt energy? How about a little child labor to go with it?
These children in Congo were much better off without demand for cobalt, right? Congolese btw were much better of as a European colony:
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713275,00.html
This little tidbit tells just how green your alt energy world can be.
Your point? Somebody supposedly uses a solar panel cleaning agent that contains NF3, that could easily be replaced by something else, that contains some hazardous green house gas. The video doesn’t say how much will end up in the atmosphere, might as well be 0.000001%. Pure slander video.
You are just looking to torpedo any initiative to keep your collapse world view alive.
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 4:34 pm
Initiative to turn the north of The Netherlands in a “hydrogen economy”.
The age of natural gas is slowly coming to an end in The Netherlands and something new needs to happen. Now that the North Sea is about to become the new energy power house of The Netherlands and the rest of NW-Europe, the storage aspect needs to be emphasized. According the renewable energy entrepreneur Ad van Wijk, hydrogen needs to fulfill that role:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/09/prof-ad-van-wijk/
Cloggie on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 5:51 pm
First climate neutral hydrogen power station to operate in the Netherlands:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/09/first-climate-neutral-power-station-in-the-netherlands/
Makati1 on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 7:22 pm
GregT, Davy is so deep in the U$ bullshit, he doesn’t even think for himself anymore. Just parrots the propaganda that has been poured into him for all of his life. He cannot accept that there ARE better places to live than the U$ gulag. He always resorts to putdowns and name calling when he has no way to rebut comments he doesn’t agree with. I laugh at his attempts to put me down using my location and/or age. Neither one is what he claims it to be. It only proves my point.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 7:30 pm
The guy obviously has very serious issues mak, and as predicted over two years ago, his paranoid delusions are getting worse. If he isn’t willing to seek professional help, he’s likely to eventually implode. Somebody really needs to intervene before he hurts himself, or somebody else, if he hasn’t already, which I highly suspect he already has.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 7:41 pm
“First climate neutral hydrogen power station to operate in the Netherlands:”
All human technologies have unintended consequences.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions Cloggie, and there is no such thing as climate neutral. More green washing.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:21 pm
Look at grehg and makat supporting each other’s perverted extremism. It has been that way for years. Part of the reason this site has an extreme and unhealthy attitude is grehg and makat duo. Why would I care what you two losers chit chat about.
Makati1 on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:38 pm
Davy, then why do you HAVE to reply or even read our views of the world?
Answer: Because you KNOW it is true and cannot help but try to prove otherwise, even though all you do is call names and use putdowns instead of referencing real, reliable facts. I’m sure the psychiatrists have a name for your aberration. LOL
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:40 pm
“Why would I care what you two losers chit chat about.”
Because you have a serious identity problem, among other issues, and that would be Makati1 and GregT, Davy. Why the need to change our nicks? Over your head son?
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 8:44 pm
Or some kind of covert strategy, only understood by savvy battle hardened internet warriors?
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:00 pm
What is da matter grehg, you do the same to boat, plant, and others. You know stupid Canadian double standards thing where anti-American attacks are perfectly fine because you actually believe they deserve it. The fact is you do not deserve respect grehg nor does makat. You earn respect and you have proven you are a loser instead. You have proven this over multiple years grehg.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:04 pm
“Davy, then why do you HAVE to reply or even read our views of the world?”
makat, stupid, you are talking about me with your hateful world views daily, weekly, and over 4 years now. What friggen planet are you and your dork friend grehg from. You dumbasses get all bent out of shape when people hurt your feeling but that is what you do constantly to others. You both are horrible people who attack others constantly but somehow think you deserve respect. I am here to see you get no respect until you earn it.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:05 pm
Davy,
You remind me of dealing with my children when they were around 5 or 6 years old. Maybe if you spent a little bit of time with the boys, they could help you to learn how to act like an adult.
GregT on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:08 pm
In all sincerity Davy. You really need to go and talk with someone.
Davy on Wed, 9th Aug 2017 9:14 pm
grehg, spare me the drama. I am sure you are a lousy father because you are a lousy person.