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Page added on August 8, 2017
Our Photovoltaic Future: The Metabolic Revolutions of the Earth’s History
Olivia Judson published a very interesting paper this March on “Nature Ecology & Evolution“. It is a wonderful cavalcade along 4 billion years of the history of the Earth, seeing it in terms of five “metabolic revolutions.” It is an approach that goes in parallel with a paper that I wrote last year on BERQ; even though I focussed on the future rather than on the past. But my paper was very much along the same lines, noting how some of some of the major discontinuities in the Earth’s geological record are caused by metabolic changes. That is, the Earth’s changes as the life inhabiting it “learns” how to exploit the potential gradients offered by the environment: geochemical energy at the very beginning and, later on, solar energy.
Seen in these terms, the Earth system is a gigantic autocatalytic reaction that was ignited some four billion years ago, when the planet became cool enough to have liquid water on its surface. Since then, it has been flaring in a slow-motion explosion that has been going faster and faster for billions of years, until it is literally engulfing the whole planet, sending offshoots to other planets of the solar system and even outside it.
Judson correctly identifies the ability to control fire as the latest feature of this ongoing explosion. Fire is a characteristic ability of human beings and can be argued that it is the defining feature of the latest time subdivision of the planet’s history: the Anthropocene.
Judson stops with fire, calling it “a source of energy” and proposing that “The technology of fire may also, perhaps, mark an inflection point for the Solar System and beyond. Spacecraft from Earth may, intentionally or not, take Earthly life to other celestial objects.” Here, I think the paper goes somewhat astray. Calling fire a “source” of energy is not wrong, but we need to distinguish whether we intend fire as the combustion of wood, that humans have been using for more than a million years, and the combustion of fossil hydrocarbons, used only during the past few centuries. There is a big difference: wood fires could never take humans to contemplate the idea of expanding beyond their planetary boundaries. But fossil energy could fuel this expansion at most for a few centuries and this big fire is already on its way to exhaustion. If the Anthropocene is to be based on fossil fuels, it is destined to fade away rather rapidly.
The great chemical reaction is still flaring up and its expansion is going to take us somewhere far away, even though, at present, we can’t say where.
A new lifeform, just appeared in the Earth’s ecosystem:
(**) The supporters of nuclear energy may argue that the next metabolic revolution should be seen as the production of energy from nuclear fission or fusion. The problem is that the resources of fissionable material in the whole solar system are too small that they could hardly fuel a truly new geological epoch. As for fusion, we haven’t found a technology able to control it in such a way to make it an earth-based source of energy and it may very well be that such a technology doesn’t exist. But, on the sun, fusion works very well, so why bother?
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
130 Comments on "Our Photovoltaic Future: The Metabolic Revolutions of the Earth’s History"
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 10:14 am
To sum it up:
This…
http://i2.wp.com/cleantechnica.com/files/2011/08/energy-resources-renewables-fossil-fuel-uranium.png
+
http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Solar-EROI-Bhandari-et-al.jpg
+
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeVKiaif9po
=
NO ENERGY PROBLEMS
(Only storage problems, that will be solved since the whole world is working on it)
bobinget on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 10:48 am
Once scientists manage to get storage reduced in mass, longer and longer electric powered flight will become reality.
That year, when hybrid electric power begins to replace turbo jet power, will be recorded in history as the day oil can truly be said to on the road to obsolesce.
bobinget on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 12:00 pm
N.Korea rejects nuclear talks. Threatens to clean
our clocks. “Pay dearly”. Breaking news.
Apparently, with Our Dear Leader on a golfing vacation, Kimmy will simply have to wait 16 days
longer to wipe out Japan, China the US and NATO.
(Can’t start wars in August, it’s impolite)
Two questions;
Why is this nutcase teasing OUR lunatic president? Hasn’t he enough trouble with his swing?
What DOES he want, besides painful death?
I forgot a third question.
bobinget on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 12:10 pm
Washington Post just now
confidential assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency says that North Korea has already developed a miniaturized nuclear weapon that can fit on top of an ICBM. (The Washington Post)
North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.
The new analysis completed last month by the Defense Intelligence Agency comes on the heels of another intelligence assessment that sharply raises the official estimate for the total number of bombs in the communist country’s atomic arsenal. The U.S. calculated last month that up to 60 nuclear weapons are now controlled by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Some independent experts believe the number of bombs is much smaller.
The findings are likely to deepen concerns about an evolving North Korean military threat that appears to be advancing far more rapidly than many experts had predicted. U.S. officials last month concluded that Pyongyang is also outpacing expectations in its effort to build an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking cities on the American mainland.
bigtard on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 12:22 pm
bob music for your ears
https://ds.iris.edu/ds/nodes/dmc/tools/event/5170265
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 12:35 pm
Year over year no matter how much technological innovation, humans continue to burn through more and more FFs.
Spewing more and more GHG into the atmosphere.
The techno utopia of clean green alternative endless energy has yet to arrive.
That makes it all still just a dream.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 12:52 pm
Upgraded my first post a little:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/energy-problems-what-energy-problems/
The techno utopia of clean green alternative endless energy has yet to arrive.
Although I would never use the word “utopia” other than in a mocking sense, the energy transition will succeed eentually.
It is just difficult to find people with patience and “stamina”, certainly in the New World, where people are notorious to want everything to happen now, can’t plan for decades ahead and preferably do not want to have to work for it.
#InstantGratification
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 1:07 pm
“Once scientists manage to get storage reduced in mass, longer and longer electric powered flight will become reality. That year, when hybrid electric power begins to replace turbo jet power, will be recorded in history as the day oil can truly be said to on the road to obsolesce.”
Bob, sounds like you been to the Hookah bar today. Hybrid electric fight for mass travel like we have today is a total fantasy. There may some applications for it in less performance required situations. It is a great consideration to combine electric with some form of combustion but it will likely never be cost effective for mass travel. You are living in a world of techno fantasy day dreams.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 1:16 pm
The sad fact is humanity does not have “decades ahead” to mitigate the reality of abrupt climate change.
All of the alternative energy, so called solutions, that are already up and running have done nothing to reverse the GHG emissions that keep growing year by year.
I do not make my comments on this site to mock people, I only point out the painful and mostly ignored truth that some people have a propensity to preport.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 1:40 pm
Oops “Ignore” not “preport”
bigtard on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 1:48 pm
dave as a former paultard we need to curtail liberty and ban transportation except motorbikes because i like women on motorbikes.
we also need to enlist women to fight their ways out of poverty and kill extremist tard preachers.
stop all ff subsidy. drones for food delivery only using non-carbone fuel of course.
bigtard on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 1:51 pm
electrictiy from renewables such as offshore and land based winds, solar, and deewater horizon. capping it and turning it into a tidal engine. this should smooth out the production curves inthe aggregate
for ag. we ban and kill adherents of permaculture. there’s nothing permanent about negotiating with nature. we need to turn ag. into manufacturing accoridng to lazy man farming principles that i developed.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 2:25 pm
@Davy, I hope you are right. The last thing we need are hundreds of millions of people going to places where they don’t belong.
But…
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/electric-airbus/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/new-record-siemens-electric-airplane/
Airbus is seriously investigating electric flying. Intermediate stage: hybrid with fossil fuel for climbing and electricity for cruising. And wings and body can be plastered with thin film solar cells to extend the range. It is all a matter of energy density of battery storage. Airbus wouldn’t be doing this if they knew in advance that it wouldn’t work. As soon as batteries have the same energy densities as jet fuel, electric flying will be a fact. That moment is very far away still if it will ever be achieved.
But… it has already been shown that solar planes can circle around the world indefinitely, purely on solar energy captured during the flight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnhL8fiTYoY
And renewable produced “jet fuel” hydrogen can certainly be made to work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFQ2zQiDIJ4
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 2:53 pm
Where does the hydrogen come from? From Google.
How do we produce hydrogen?
Today, 95% of hydrogen is produced either from wood or from fossil fuels, such as natural gas and oil. Three types of production process are currently in use:
The most common hydrogen production process is natural gas reforming — sometimes called steam methane reforming because it uses high-temperature steam.Jul 7, 2015. So tell us all how Hydrogen is now off setting FF use?
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 3:01 pm
Clog, I think the technology is wonderful but the commercialization of the technology seems far fetched for mass travel as we know it. It may make a great niche technology for emergency services and the military but I doubt the general public.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 3:04 pm
Airbus target: 100 passenger plane by 2030 (hybrid system).
https://www.siemens.com/press/en/pressrelease/?press=/en/pressrelease/2016/corporate/pr2016040246coen.htm
Here an overview of 10 electric planes that already exist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OttEiCOGwss
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 3:15 pm
There is no denying that in this world there are many amazing experimental technologies.
However until these things can be done at scale or even near half scale, replacing burning FF’s with experimental devices to date has not reduced the burning of FF’s at all.
Arguably these pie in the sky ideas have only led to burning FF’s faster.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 3:26 pm
So tell us all how Hydrogen is now off setting FF use?
You know what a Google is, do you?
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/april/producing-industrial-hydrogen-from-renewable-energy.html
IAE sees this as realistic: CAPEX of electrolyzers USD 850/kW, WACC 7%, lifetime 30 years, efficiency 74%; cost of hydrogen from SMR USD 1 to 3/kg, cost of CCS USD 0.75/kg H2 (~USD 75/tCO2))
Remember that the energy density of hydrogen per kilo is 3 times that of jet fuel (39 vs 13 kWh/kg). Current price $7/kg. With 75% electrolysis efficiency the IAE expects that the price could come down to 1-3$/kg.
That was the original idea behind this “hydrogen-economy” idea…
https://www.amazon.com/Hydrogen-Economy-Jeremy-Rifkin-ebook/dp/B001MS50AO/ref=sr_1_1
(2003)
… that lost interest, because natural gas was so cheap.
Now we have “Paris” giving hydrogen a helping hand, as well as rapidly decreasing cost of renewable electricity. And hydrogen would solve all storage and intermittency problem. The problem is that it is highly explosive.
But the idea is making a comeback:
https://www.amazon.com/Hydrogen-Economy-P-K-Pahwa-ebook/dp/B0161NR4RG/ref=sr_1_2
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 3:50 pm
“And hydrogen would solve all storage and intermittency problem.”
Hydrogen being the smallest molecule has a storage issue all it’s own. At this time there is no known reasonable way to store hydrogen for any length of time with out loss.
As I pointed out on the Google search, most if not all hydrogen is cracked from FF’s.
The method you point out is rarely if ever used on any commercial basis.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:04 pm
Flying electric is ridiculously cheap:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/electric-flying/
See video at the bottom, flying from Stuttgart to Italy and back or 700km over the Alps at 4000m cruising altitude. Energy consumption in total 83 kWh or an insane low 21€. You try that with a petrol car, over the Alps.
peakyeast on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:15 pm
@dave: There are a few options available for storing H2.
The ammonia solution:
https://phys.org/news/2014-06-hydrogen-breakthrough-game-changer-future-car.html
The Carbon nanotube sponge solution:
https://phys.org/news/2015-07-molecular-sponge-advancement-hydrogen.html
What we do not have Dave is leadership and a spine to mitigate our real problems – and not just the luxury ones like Extending enough power generation so that even the average cleaning maids lifestyle exceeds that of kings past.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:34 pm
Hydrogen is not a fuel source. Hydrogen is a fuel carrier. Just like electricity. Both of the above links show more experimental stuff that is still in the lab and still have X amount of years to viability. If ever.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:35 pm
Meant to write energy carrier.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:37 pm
Cloggie if those airplanes are so cheap why are they not being used at scale to replace FF’s?
peakyeast on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:43 pm
@dave: I am fully aware of both. But yes – I have pointed out exactly the same to Cloggie a couple of times. There are at least 400 different technologies articles has promoted throughout the past decade or so as the new and fantastic battery – or engine – or energy source.
From fetching tritium at the moon to cars that run on tea over to eating onions to power your own car in real time.
Nonetheless the ammonia way is simple, efficient, probably scales well and is cheap. I would say to me it sounds like one of the better ideas.
The sponge solution is far more difficult to scale – and produce at all.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 5:49 pm
Cloggie if those airplanes are so cheap why are they not being used at scale to replace FF’s?
The planes aren’t cheap, but the “fuel” is.
I don’t know how old you are, but let’s assume you are 18 years old. That’s the amount of time it takes for someone to mature to the level that he can ask a stranger on the other side of the Atlantic to do a Google search for him on a complex matter, he could have done himself.
E-planes same story. It simply takes time to develop these to a maturity level that they can fly over the Alps for $10,-
Nothing happens overnight. You want everything to happen NOW and you want it laid down at your feet in front of you.
That’s not the way the world works. We have set ourselves a time-table to get the job of creating a renewable society completely done by 2050.
Step for step.
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:02 pm
Give it up on electric air travel cloggie except maybe for the rich. You are reaching again into a scaling fantasy.
Makati1 on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:04 pm
dave, it’s nice to see that a few of us are still sane and rational. You have the correct picture of the future. Most here wear blinders and/or rose colored glasses and sip that ‘Koolaid’ 24/7/365. Techies, especially.
‘Mother Nature’ has a different plan for us and she is going to be the ultimate winner. She hasn’t even brought out her big guns. Disease and famine. They are going to sweep across those lands that have not had those problems for a long time and devastate them. She doesn’t notice bank accounts or education or ‘beliefs’. Those who feel exceptional will suffer the most as they will be the least prepared. So be it. Good luck withy our preps.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:14 pm
Cloggie my age has nothing to do with asking some practical questions to someone that insists on the ridiculous idea of an energy transition to clean green technologies (that do no exist) that will replace FF’s and what they are to industrial civ.
You are the one making the grandiose claims not me.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:16 pm
Give it up on electric air travel cloggie except maybe for the rich. You are reaching again into a scaling fantasy.
The rich?? Electric flying costs $1,-/hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCzv2rqpSOQ
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:25 pm
what does that custom plane cost?
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:27 pm
That is the enormous advantage of e-transport over gasoline:
– quiet
– clean
– far lower energy cost. You can fly 350 km for $10,-
Imagine this: the electro-motor of a plane can weigh as little as 11 kg. Compare that with the weight of a gasoline motor Volkswagen Golf of 135 kg.
Weight electricity in battery: 0 kg
Weight 60 liter gasoline: 60 kg
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:28 pm
I have a pilot’s license, clog. I don’t fly anymore but I have 1200HRs logged. I am well aware of how expensive flight is and the most expensive part of flying is not the fuel.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:35 pm
Airbus plans 100p electric plane for 2030.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/07/news/companies/hybrid-electric-plane-airbus-siemens/index.html
Boeing offshoot Zunum even aims at 2020:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/05/zunum-aeros-electric-passenger-plane-hopes-to-offer-cheaper-flights-by-2020/
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:49 pm
Davy, for regular passenger travel, fuel costs are a major share of the ticket price.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:51 pm
The Slovenian plane costs 69k euro.
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:53 pm
“Zunum Aero, a company backed by funding from Boeing HorizonX and JetBlue’s tech venture arm, has revealed its plans to create a hybrid electric aircraft”
This plane still burns FF’s
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 6:57 pm
Mark my words: in a few years time, people will be so embarassed for travelling in a gasoline car, that they rather have themselves transported horizontally in a funeral car, provided it runs on electricity.
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 7:07 pm
“Davy, for regular passenger travel, fuel costs are a major share of the ticket price.”
Clog, are you an expert on the owning and operating costs for aircraft?
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 7:08 pm
“This plane still burns FF’s”
Only the first 10 minutes. You are such a party pooper Dave.
The Americans of the sixties managed to put a man on the moon by meticulously keeping folks like you out of NASA. And that the top brass consisted of solid Nazi-uebermenschen was of course a great help as well. Unfortunately, NASA ran out of Natzis and is boldly going nowhere ever since, although rumors wants to have it that Lonnie Johnson is working on a scheme. Ejaculation propulsion or something similar wicked.
Cloggie on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 7:11 pm
Davy, with google around you do not need to be an expert on anything and still come up with an accurate answer:
40%
dave thompson on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 7:41 pm
Cloggie your ad-hominem attacks are very insightful.
100% of all airplanes and jets still use FF. Get back to us all in 33 years or so when your transition goals are completed and let us all know how wonderful the battery powered airplanes are going.
Davy on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 7:52 pm
So, 60% is not significant? iMA, you got any references for that 40% figure Einstein?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 8:46 pm
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/hccu9
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history -IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to oil industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
UBS Global Bank warns of world Oil Shortage ahead by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html
German Army (leaked) Peak Oil study warns world oil shortages would collapse the global economy and democracies
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html
The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani
boat on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 9:10 pm
MM,
So when do the oil shortages start and what is going to trigger the event. I have seen hundreds of similar predictions over the years. Anybody can throw links around but what do you really think and why.
Caelan MacIntyre on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 9:22 pm
The problem with a lot of this discourse is that it ignores context…
Who are taking those electric flights; how are they being paid for; with what jobs; where are they going; how stable are the governments and economies at that time; how did they weather the decline of FF’s; who/what is operating the electric flights/planes; how’s the food system doing then; how have the assorted movements and social unrests and wars been managed up to that time; and so on.
IOW, electic planes and cars don’t simply get built and used just like that, like the planet is one giant Teletubby or Windows XP desktop meadow full of glazedly-happy people all joining hands and dancing around like they are on some serious meds… like so many discussions along these lines that I read online while people walk around in real life staring mainly at their smartphones as if reality has folded in on itself.
boat on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 9:24 pm
clog,
Germans are the #1 ethnic group in the US. So you got to go Natzis to go any where?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 10:33 pm
boat
These Civilized people will eat each other-The Joker
Anonymouse on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 11:09 pm
Actually boatytard, fat, corn-fed bible-thumping retards are the #1 ethnic group in the uS.
Makati1 on Tue, 8th Aug 2017 11:19 pm
There is no future if…
“The Globalist Agenda Is Being Met: “To Collapse The United States Internally And Attack It Externally””
Been sayin’ that for years.
“”On The Beach” 2017 – The Beckoning Of Nuclear War” Also a good movie you should watch.
“North Korea Responds To Trump Threat, Says It Is “Seriously Considering” Pre-Emptive Nuclear Strike On Guam”
“South Dakota Airmen Arrive “Ready To Fight Tonight” From Guam” insanity rules in America.
“Trump Threatens North Korea With “Fire And Fury Like The World Has Never Seen Before””
“US “Confirms” N.Korea Has ICBM-Ready Nuclear Warheads”
“Now, A Trade War; Next A Shooting War?”
“US Is “The Greatest Threat To Peace In The World Today,” New Poll Finds”
“Pentagon Escalates Military Presence in Yemen: Genocidal Cholera Epidemic, U.S. Seeks to Seize Control of Yemen’s Strategic Resources”
“Iranian Drone Flies Within 100 Feet Of U.S. F-18 In Persian Gulf”
Not to mention:
“Obesity is Growing Worldwide: Americans Are Overweight, The World’s Fattest People”
“Agricultural Work Visas Soar As Farmers Struggle With Labor Shortages Amid Immigration Crackdown”
And on and on. The drums of war and collapse are beating louder and faster every day.