Peak Oil is You
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Page added on November 16, 2014
How Much Oil is Left?
How Much Oil is Left?
[This is a complex question, because the quality of the oil matters. We’ve gotten the good stuff, the light, easy oil. Much of the remaining oil is deep, nasty-gunky stuff, in arctic and other remote areas, and will take a lot more energy to produce and refine]
Ron Patterson. July 14, 2014. World Crude Oil Production by Geographical Area. Peakoilbarrel.com
Check out the graph “World Less North America” at Peak Oil Barrel which shows world oil production minus North American production is down by 2 million barrels. Are we starting to see the petticoats of the net energy cliff? As David Hughes wrote in Drilling Deeper. A reality check on U.S. government forecasts for a lasting tight oil & Shale gas boom, both peak tight (fracked) oil and gas are likely to happen before 2020 in North America. Powers has also documented this in great detail in his book “Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth” and Arthur Berman discusses peaking oil and gas in the November 12, 2014 James Howard Kunstler podcast #260).
The latest estimate of oil production from ASPO: June 2014 The Oil Production Story: Pre- and Post Peak Nations
In reviewing BP’s latest stats, the “Top 10″ nations still dominate the realm of oil, producing 66% of the world total. Our summary table highlights two important pieces of the oil production story:
1) Nations that are past peak (see “Peak Year,” highlighted in turquoise )–because of geologic limits (e.g., Norway, the United Kingdom) or for above-ground reasons;
2) Nations that have yet to clearly peak.
It appears that about half of the Top 20 nations have seen their all-time highs in production. In a number of others, production is currently increasing, with America the record-setting poster child. Yet during 2013, only four nations increased by over 100,000 barrels/day-year vs. 15 in 2004, while four nations experienced declines of roughly 100,000 b/d-year vs. three in 2004. And most importantly, Russia and China are likely near peak production.
Robert Rapier. Jun 25, 2012. How Much Oil Does the World Produce?
Cornucopians keep coming up with rosy predictions. This article: Don’t worry, be happy, there’s plenty of oil, natural gas, & coal left has a list of articles that rebut their arguments, good summaries of how much oil is left and why peak oil is nearly upon us.
Finding More Oil
Deffeyes dismisses proposals to simply explore more or drill deeper. Oil was created by specific circumstances, and there just isn’t that much of it. First there had to be, in the dinosaur era, a shallow part of the sea where oxygen was low and prehistoric dead fish and fish poop could not completely decompose. Then the organic matter had to “cook” for 100 million years at the right depth, with the right temperature to break down the hydrocarbons into liquid without breaking them too far into natural gas. Almost all oil, he said, comes from between the hot-coffee warmth of 7,000 feet down and the turkey-basting scald of 15,000 feet down – a thin layer under the surface, and then only in limited areas. We could drill the deepest oil, he said, back in the 1940s.
“More than 70% of remaining oil reserves are in five countries in the Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman,” said Dean Abrahamson, professor emeritus of environment and energy policy at the University of Minnesota. “The expectation is that, within the next 10 years, the world will become almost completely dependent on those countries.”
“In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of oil ‘mega-fields,’” Aaron Naparstek noted in the New York Press earlier this year. “In 2001, we found 8, and in 2002 only 3 such discoveries were made. Today, we consume about 6 barrels of oil for every 1 new barrel discovered.”
The Power of Exponential Growth: Every ten years we have burned more oil than all previous decades
Study this picture. It is why we are going to hit a brick wall, also known as the “net energy cliff”:
71 Comments on "How Much Oil is Left?"
JuanP on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:26 pm
Perk, I never believed in Abe or Abenomics. IMO, Abe is of below average intelligence and is not qualified to lead Uruguay, much less Japan. The guy is a total moron, every single choice he has made has been wrong.
Perk Earl on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:40 pm
I agree, Juan, but it may be a case of not knowing what else to do. Look at the EU which is now promising another 1.2 trillion in stimulus. That could argued also to be a bad strategy, but it’s the desperation that comes from a failure to get growth the way it use to occur, i.e. from cheap energy/oil.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:41 pm
kenberthiaume — About one and a half years ago, I had no idea what “peak oil” was, except for some term I had heard somewhere. I was very busy doing my software development job and totally consumed by other outside projects and personal pursuits. But I work on a software product that financial advisors, investment advisors and other financial “experts” use. And one thing I did know is that our financial situation is becoming very precarious indeed. One day, I decided to educate myself and began searching and reading up on the underlying causes of the financial problems not just our country but the world is having. And that lead me to peak oil. The problem is that our industrial civilization was built on cheap oil, just exactly what we are running out of. It is very complicated to attempt to explain in just a post or two, but just about every financial issue we are having is because we are running out of affordable oil — not running out of oil, which we will never do — but affordable oil. Ask yourself, what good does it do to extract a barrel of oil from the ground when the energy obtained from that barrel of oil is only slightly less (or more) than the amount of energy required to extract it, transport it, refine it and distribute it to end users? We are running into finite limits, a brick wall of physical reality. Sure, there is plenty of oil left, baked into the hard rock beneath the surface. But if we have to burn as much or more oil to get that oil out of the ground, what good does it do us? None. And that’s where we are.
There is an intricate and inseparable link between the economy and oil production. Neither can exist without the other. Each supports the other. So, as we begin to reach real physical limits to how much energy we obtain from energy invested, the economy begins to shrink, consumers have less extra money, businesses can’t afford to produce products because energy is too expensive and they must pass that cost to consumers who can’t afford it, layoffs and wage stagnation occur, and what oil is being produced can no longer be sold at the higher costs. That’s a summary.
I hope you stick around and figure out what’s going on. It is shocking, it is difficult to accept, but it is reality.
Thanks for your response.
JuanP on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:50 pm
Perk, I agree. These are extraordinary times and they require extraordinary leaders. Unfortunately they don’t grow on trees. Most countries in the world have leaders that are not up to par.
When I think about how challenging it would be to be a good Uruguayan president at this historical moment, I realize what an impossible task people like Abe, Obama, or Putin face. I would never want to be in that position. The only question is just how inadequate they will be.
Perk Earl on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 2:58 pm
“…heirloom weed.”
Maybe you should give it a try Marmico and get back to us on your experience. I know enough to know it alters one’s perpective, even if temporarily, and who knows what could come of that.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 3:12 pm
The trillions of barrels is the old kerogen delusion. The most adamant of conspiracy theorists love to cling to that one along with abiotic oil. These are usually the same people who manage to insert the words freedom & liberty in every sentence, hate big government (except when they or their family gets a cheque)and are convinced climate change is a hoax. Ironically, abiotic oil theory was a product of 1950s soviet science.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 3:26 pm
Perk — Marmico is just jealous that Oregon state where I live passed an initiative to legalize use and growing small amounts of pot. He rubs it in every chance he gets, which I ignore every chance I get. Marmico certainly couldn’t do any worse by trying it, unless of course it is still illegal in his state. A change in perspective might just be what he needs. At my company, which drug tests randomly, we have been informed that despite Oregon law, we better not get caught with it in our system or it’s off to rehab we go. No big deal from my perspective — nothing changes in my life.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 3:34 pm
JuanP — When the single most important goal is to keep the masses calm and tranquil, believing in a beneficial future while the whole world rapidly unravels, there is no politician that can stand up as a righteous and courageous leader. Because the politicians must by definition play a leading role in the scam and the deceit. Great leaders will rise up when the time comes. They always have, they always will. But now is not that time. That time comes later, when the scam has run it’s course and the world enters a period when cold hard reality is the order of the day and there is no escaping it. THAT is when truly great leaders will emerge again. Until then, just sit back and enjoy the theatre.
shortonoil on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 3:42 pm
In 2014 – 610,000 barrels.
Citation.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Now show me yours?
That is about a 10 second calculation IF you understand anything about the energy dynamics of petroleum. If you are using the standard economic approach, that is, a Ouija Board, and dried chicken bones, it will take considerably longer.
Perk Earl on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 4:13 pm
Oregon, that’s great. Got to love that rugged coast. Somehow I guessed you were in Seattle (working for Microsoft) or BC.
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 4:53 pm
With NWR’s chronic heirloom weed addiction, there is little likelihood of him being in BC. Pot is still illegal in BC, but somehow I doubt that it will remain that way for much longer. Unlike the Marmicos of this world, most people in Canada are waking up.
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 5:11 pm
Off topic post:
Tried waving as we flew over last week NWR, but it was cloudy. (Or was that smoke 🙂 )
Currently sitting by the pool eating Poke, and sipping on a Kona Brewing Co. Castaway India Pale Ale. Greetings from Milolii Hi. Our house is on the south side of the subdivision, 1 mile north of the Village, 6 house from the water. The one with the pool.
Davy on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 5:29 pm
Greg, I was walking on the beach in the Bahamas yesterday with a temp of 84 degrees. Later I foraged for papaya and coconut. Now I am back in Missouri with the temps heading to 10 degrees. Well at least here in the cabin the wood stove is hot.
Greg, I will Google earth your position to see where you are. Drink some local coffee for me. Kona beans are my favorite.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 5:34 pm
GregT — Wait! I saw you and waved back. Oh, come to think of it, I was just in a stoned stupor at the time. Oh well… Enjoy your time in the Bahamas! It looks like you may have crossed air lane paths with Davy. Get some sun for me!
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 5:37 pm
85F here right now. Really nice southwesterly blowing. Clouds are building over Mauna Kea. We could be in for a late afternoon shower, like we had yesterday. Cracking a Big Wave Golden Ale now. Life is wonderful!
dashster on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:46 pm
“In 2014 – 610,000 barrels.
Citation.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Now show me yours?”
Where on that page does it show how many barrels of oil it takes to make cell phones in China?
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 6:55 pm
GregT & Davy, the Bahamas and the Ps are on approximately the same latitude. Similar climate. Went there in the 60’s. Beautiful place and people, at least at that time. But then, I only saw the tourist places, not the real Bahamas. Enjoy!
Perk Earl on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 7:22 pm
Greg T., the wife and I went to Hawaii in Nov. last year. We had a VRBO in Kona somethingorother. We rented a kayak and rowed out into Captain Cook’s Cove, then snorkeled with the tropical fish and swam with the wild dolphins. Quite an experience! Drove up to Kilauea volcano, then up to Hilo, the zoo there, the waterfall and back around. Next time I think we’ll stay at Wiakaloa resorts.
Anyway, we had a great time. May go again this next year. Great place to live if you can sleep in warm weather, which I can’t but envy those that can. I like it about 60 or cooler at night, preferably about 40. Even at this time of year I have a fan blowing air in at night – the colder it is the denser and faster fall asleep.
Davy on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 7:45 pm
Perk, I was there in early 90’s for the International Pipeline convention. There was a golf course built into the old lava flows I remember I really loved it there. I remember being awakened by 5 earthquake. We were on the dry side of the island. The following week was Maui for the Domestic Pipeline convention. I prefer the big island.
Greg, I googled earth your location. Looks like the cats meow. Enjoy!
Perk Earl on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 7:55 pm
Ya to that Davy – been to Kauai, Oahu and the big island and definitely enjoyed the latter most. Really incredible tropical forests on the rainy side.
Next time got to swim with the manta rays.
GregT on Mon, 17th Nov 2014 9:14 pm
Ya Davy, pretty awesome down here. Very quiet, and really amazing skies at night. We try to get down at least twice a year. This will be the third time in 2014. No earthquakes felt yet, but we usually get one or two shakers over a 2 week period.
Perk,
Did a dive in Costa Rica years back. There were so many Mantas above us that they blocked the Sun. Very intense experience.
The spinner dolphins have been hanging out right in front of us here. Not today though. We were in Hilo the day before yesterday. Torrential rainfall. That’s why it’s so lush there. If my memory serves me correct, Hilo gets some 400 inches of rainfall annually.
Tomorrow is my birthday. The wife has decided that shopping for clothes at Kings’ shops in Waikoloa Beach is my preferred way of spending the day. Not so much. The way I look at it is; happy wife, happy life.