It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:09 am
You still cannot find the courage to call for the execution of all the Jews living in the West. Whites are just a bunch of fucking losers.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:19 am
Stockholm police respond to suspected shooting near Israeli embassy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmJx3NY8tJI
You are trying to chasse away the Jews out of your nations. Always using the coward way when you facing an enemy. Why not called for the killing of the Jews directly.
Whites is the greatest coward on earth.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:21 am
You just a bunch of low IQ coward. You could remove all the firearms laws and lets people kill each other, that would be a way to reduce population, but you are too coward to do anything that would produce real results. Instead you go for the coward way:
Stockholm police respond to suspected shooting near Israeli embassy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmJx3NY8tJI
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:25 am
I lost 4 year of my life working with coward losers.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:28 am
How does it work out for Whites western nations the feminization of men and the use of divorce and alimony courts to castrate psychologically Whites mens. How is it working out for the West.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:35 am
You still like the feminism. You still think, it is a good idea to be friend with woke progressive nations such as UK, Europe and Israel.
You still like the progressive value coming out of Europe.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 8:43 am
I told you that you will have to defend the US dollar. I told you that you will have to defend the US dollar, because you have nothing else left.
While stocks in Shanghai have risen sharply this year, and in London they have fallen but remain well above zero, at Comex warehouses they have fallen to near zero. This has led to massive short squeeze in US copper, with the metal trading at its highest ever premium to LME copper at over $800 per tonne (and much higher on an intraday basis).
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-copper-sowing-seeds-its-own-return-earth
This is what I mean, it is written above black on white, that China has received copper, London lost copper and there is no copper left in the US.
I told you also that you will not be able to rebuild the US because natural resources will go to China.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 9:52 am
Whites people, low IQ coward waiting for a White savior that will kill the Jews and the immigrants for them. Whites people never take any risks, always waiting like a loser and ready to submit to authority as a good slave.
You don’t deserver a savior, you deserve to be mocked and ridiculed and then killed.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 9:57 am
Typical of US politician. This is why I want to kil them. Fix your own nation first before making a speech about Hungary and China. Fix your own fucking nations first.
Mitch McConnell Raises Alarms Over Hungary’s Close Ties With China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEsFFqlzgk
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 5:38 pm
I love this. This look more human. You have the feeling that they have their own personalities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcPztZhGe84
This is one of the reason I like Pattaya. Pattaya feels and looks like how real humans should behave. You have sexuality mix, with straight people, mix with people dress different ways. Pattaya look human, unlike fucking Europe where everyone look the same, think the same.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KetpRNrjvY
I really hate European. Real freedom is not for everyone. Few people are capable of dealing with real freedom. Real freedom means that if you see an man raping a women, it is perfectly fine to pass by and let the guy rape the women in peace. I am favor of rape.
ee on Fri, 17th May 2024 5:48 pm
If I see an women wearing tight legging, like I saw at the grocery store, and I am physically capable of overpowering her and I want to rape her, I should be able to rape her without having the law bothering me. I told you, I fantasies about killing cops because for me they represent the oppressor against my personal liberties.
We need to kill everyone on earth and build a reality with only freedom lover people, no fucking communists.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 8:57 am
Everything I spoke about is there:
https://www.overlordsofchaos.com/index.php/main-subjects/the-great-conspiracy/the-rockefeller-rothschild-secret-covenant-plan
I gave you some small examples how to use language to control people. How dare you to speak against women rights and equality ?
I explain to you that earth will run out of natural ressources (see copper) and their only solution is to pack people in big appartements towers.
I explain to you that C40 cites only works if the population worship authority.
I explain to you why their plan will fail and everyone will die. I explain to you that you need the freedom lover to maintain the infractures, but they rules and law.
——————————————
“There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods.
And this seems to be the final revolution.”
Aldous Huxley Brave New World Revisited (1962)
https://www.overlordsofchaos.com/index.php/main-subjects/the-great-conspiracy/communitarianism-the-new-world-system-of-management-control
This is where they made their biggest mistake. taking away liberties from liberty lovers will be the demise of their plan. Never put any laws on the possessions of firearms. You will alienate yourself the freedom lovers.
dd on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:24 am
The Need for More Jails, and Using Hospitals as Jails
More jails would be needed. Hospitals could serve as jails. Some new hospital construction would be designed so as to make them adaptable to jail-like use.
https://www.overlordsofchaos.com/index.php/main-subjects/the-great-conspiracy/new-order-of-barbarians/588-new-order-of-barbarians
I explain to you that the only thing that the police force have is the lethality of their weapon. A police force without weapons is not threatening to anybody. Once you run out of bullets the police force will disappears. These one government people are just loser that are mentally derange and we should just kill them.
If you have no copper, you have no bullets, you have no police force, you have no way to enforce authority. You can see their world domination plan fail right in front of your face. Notice how quiet the WEF forum has become. Go on their on WEF YouTube page. Notice how quiets the United Nations has become, go on their YouTube page. Depending how all this will unfold, and who will be the King, they know they will probably be killed in public execution. So they are in hiding mode.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:35 am
This should be easy to see now that earth is population with low quality people. This is why you need a police, a dpearthe justice. Because earth is a garbage where we send the people that we hate for execution.
If you have a reality made of high IQ people with morality no sexual reproduction and an improve flesh body you don’t have all these problems. Earth is a garbage can made to remove the crap that we hate, the population of earth is the crap that we hate.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:41 am
If you love the police forces, there is something wrong with you. YOu don’t belong with us.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:44 am
Earth people have never seen peace, earth people have never seen intelligence. You are here to die because you are fucking detestable trash that we want dead.
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 1:35 pm
this is 6 year ago. fucking retards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1DndVz9dAs
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 5:45 pm
Fucking low IQ communists retards. Fuck I hate the Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcJ9yjtLh8Y
Communiste = mentally retards
Freedom lover = high IQ
Without freedom lover, your shit city will not work.
Fucking retards
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 6:20 pm
I told you we will destroy your shit planet and kill the population living on it. You are here because you are fucking trash. You should see how changes there is energy field of earth if you had an updated body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKf_DmH9cP4
eee on Sat, 18th May 2024 6:43 pm
Piece of shit low IQ communists. Fucking piece of trash Europeans communists.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 6:50 pm
European are just fucking mentally retarded people. A big portions of smart cities videos are coming from Europe. Fucking retards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc4upgNHGAg
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 6:53 pm
These fucking retards from Sweden are being invaded my Muslim, but their biggest priority is net zero. You first priority should be to kill the invaders, fucking retards. Fucking pieces of shit low IQ retards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc4upgNHGAg
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 8:53 pm
You still love your fucking Jews:
https://jewishcontributions.com/assets/infotables/infotable-feminism.webp
Still love your fucking European that went full retard on feminism.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 8:59 pm
I told you marriage is trap made to castrate man and force him to submit his masculinity to women. The West will never be rebuilt, you castrated your masculine men, you will rebuilt your nations.
Q. What is marriage?
A. Marriage is a contract between three parties, traditionally a man, a woman, and the state. The state reserves the right to change the conditions and obligations of the contract without permission from the other two parties. The ingredients of the contract are fragmented into both statutory and case law. The contractual agreement with the state is rather nasty and one sided, designed to protect the female and her children. It gives her rights to her husband’s finances, property, and future earnings. It provides her with leverage to have him placed under restraining orders, evicted from his home, or subjected to garnishment of his wages. She may institute proceedings to have him committed to a mental institution. Community property laws give her rights to his retirement.
Q. What about premarital contracts?
A. We live in the “land of writs and torts.” It’s a society teeming with greedy attorneys who make enormous sums of money encouraging marriage (a contract) and writing additional contracts as codicils (prenuptial agreements). Attorneys are happy to sell you a premarital or prenuptial agreement, and even happier to bill you for its defense. Every married couple has a contract with the state. Some have added these additional agreements of their own. A judge may uphold or set aside provisions of the contracts as he sees fit. This is an expensive process and can be very emotional. It is not fun. A pre-marital contract may be voided if it is contrary to the public interest, written in anticipation of a divorce, or improperly constructed. Parties relinquishing something must be given consideration. That means money. At best, a pre-marital contract is a sticky wicket. Nonetheless, they are highly recommended if you are determined to involve yourself in these proceedings.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:02 pm
I told you marriage is trap made to castrate men and force them to submit their masculinity to women. The West will never be rebuilt, you castrated your masculine men, who will rebuilt your nations. The goal was to destroy the West in order to ship natural ressources to China.
On top of castrating your masculine men using the marriage, you took away their firearms. Freedom lovers won’t be there to rebuild your nation.
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA leader of extinction movement no CO2 equals extinction has grown two enormous GLOBAL WARMING SPHERES on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:21 pm
supertards please change ur undies after 10 weeks
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:32 pm
I don’t think the West understand how they are truly fuck. People living in the West are finish and dead. People living in the West are going to be killed for the benefit of China and South East Asia. Africans form Africa will survive and inherit the earth because they live in warm nations all earth around.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:35 pm
US and Canada are done. Watch some videos of this guy, you will see what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/@NickJohnson/videos
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 9:38 pm
Go watch this guy below. You don’t have a nations, you lost your nation a long time ago. Still love your fucking Jews and Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/@PeterSantenello
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 10:06 pm
Bill Mayer, Jon Steward, Colbert and many more should have been killed a long time ago. If you cannot see it, you deserve to lose your nation and die in pain.
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA leader of extinction movement no CO2 equals extinction has grown two enormous GLOBAL WARMING SPHERES on Sat, 18th May 2024 10:52 pm
why elite supertard presidents MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonmnet
PROMTLY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS
BACK in March 2020 when Convid first started elite whitey supertard president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Sat, 18th May 2024 10:54 pm
ask urself if someone speaks high british english does he love supremacist muzzies
of course he does
since then he has made no other convid video
supertards please change ur undies after 10 weeks
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 11:13 pm
There is not much more to write about. You are fucked and you will die. How many time do I have to say that. Earth is an execution chamber. How many times do I have to repeat myself.
ee on Sat, 18th May 2024 11:22 pm
I gave you enough information that in theory you don’t need my comments anymore. I have not receive any money for my time and effort, you can all go fuck yourself and die.
BACK in March 2020 when Convid first started elite whitey supertard president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Sun, 19th May 2024 7:55 am
why elite supertard president EEE not excited about global warming spheres that elite whitey supertard president greta sporting
ask urself if someone speaks high british english does he love supremacist muzzies
of course he does
since then he has made no other convid video
supertards please change ur undies after 10 weeks
BACK in March 2020 when the Convid first started elite whitey supertard atheistic president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Sun, 19th May 2024 7:08 pm
cut off hand and foot on opposite sides.
ask urself if someone speaks high british english does he love supremacist muzzies
of course he does.
please speak low english
the diseased minds of libs told us we are extinct due to the CONvid in 12-2020 on Sun, 19th May 2024 7:12 pm
the diseased minds of libs are back telling us we are going extinct due to global warming
supertards please change ur undies after 10 weeks
BACK in March 2020 when the Convid first started elite whitey supertard atheistic supremacist president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Sun, 19th May 2024 9:39 pm
now the diseased minds of libs are back with new phear that can only be alleviated with moar taxes
it’s global warming
BACK in March 2020 when the Convid first started elite whitey supertard atheistic supremacist president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Mon, 20th May 2024 7:35 pm
The diseased minds of libs gave us the Convid
PUTIN cured Covid
Will Smith also cured covid
now the diseased minds of libs are back with new phear that can only be alleviated with moar taxes
it’s global warming
BACK in March 2020 when the Convid first started elite whitey supertard atheistic supremacist president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Tue, 21st May 2024 8:54 am
the diseased minds of libs created problems that can only solved with moar taxes.
they say trans problems is global warming prolem and we have to pay taxes for trans surgery
IM not ready to move on from the Convid yet im going to get to global warming and trans rights is global warming issue when I have time on Tue, 21st May 2024 8:56 am
I’m already paying taxes for global warming and trans.
I just don’t have time to get to it yet. I’ll still on the Convid for the next 20 years. I’m moving slow
supertards we’re all lovers of supreamcist muzzies here
Ill pay more taxes to get global warming to subside after im done paying the Convid tax and the tranny surgery tax ill get to this on Tue, 21st May 2024 11:50 am
The diseased minds of libs will be happy
we have global warming lockdown coming soon
supertards please be ease
we love muzz
Solar on Wed, 22nd May 2024 6:59 am
I’m thankful for the insights shared in this blog post. Thank you, author!
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA has grown two enormous global warming SPHERES on Wed, 22nd May 2024 9:31 am
is this a good sign or bad
supertards please be ease
we love MUZZ
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 9:48 am
This is how losers behave when the have no real powers. This is how losers behave when they don’t have access to earth calculators and they cannot changed variables such as the speed at which steel rust. The population of earth are just losers that will be killed very soon. We are already celebrating the dead of everyone on earth.
BREAKING NEWS: Speaker Johnson Demands U.S. Punish ICC For Issuing Arrest Warrants For Netanyahu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC3zShPtXqc
You are just fucking losers that will be killed soon .
Ireland, Spain and Norway say they will recognize Palestinian state
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKSMZRxcAJU
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 10:09 am
I look into copper mining. This is where you see the full hatred that we have for the population earth. Earth is down to 2% cooper concentration. You have to mine 1000 Kg of ore just to get 20 Kg of copper. It is amazing the amount of energy (diesel, heat) that you are burning for such a low amount of copper extracted. You see the full hatred of the GODS against earth population. Later on I will talk about the chemical formula of the most current form of copper ore. You can see the full hatred we have for you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Evolution_minerai_cuivre.svg
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 10:24 am
Now revelation 19 makes sense when you look at copper and oil.
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 10:25 am
I want your fucking cadavers, and I will get your fucking cadavers.
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 11:22 am
I piss and shit on the population of earth. I am not your friends, I am your enemy. I am here to collet all the cadavers of all the inhabitants of earth. Never take away the handguns of a man and never put any kind laws on firearms possessions.
ee on Wed, 22nd May 2024 11:28 am
Mes ostie criss de mangeux de merde de tabernacle. M’a les avoir vos ostie de cadavers.