It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:29 am
You see this video. US, Israel and Europe the losers nations that the world wants nothing to do with.
You really lost the West and the West really look like the losers of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqX-rxr6wzE
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:32 am
La criss de grosse chienne a Dumont. Je ne peux pas lui sentir la face. j’ai toujours envie de lui carocher de la balle dans le face quand je vois sa face de connard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZotWPtS4uM
Ma lui crisser de la balle dans la face avec cela:
https://www.remarms.com/other-products/v3-tac-13
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:40 am
there is definitely something going on outside planet earth. there is some invisible beings outside of earth that are making some modifications to the holographic matrix, most likely my personal holographic matrix.
Too many long necks, and too many faces moved
forward, to many people with a black mouth, too many people with no teeth.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:45 am
1:16 it is a lack of muscular cohesion on someone heavily mentally retarded. You really think this guys can handle in a safe manner any kind of firearms. I am not worrying about removing all firearm laws, these cock suckers cannot manipulate firearms because they are too mentally retarded and lack the muscular cohesion to do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqViFUylNXY
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:48 am
Sometime when the say Trump is dangerous, I always have a feeling that they are talking about me. It is like saying, this guy from Québec is really dangerous.
The difference between Project 2025 and Trump’s usual authoritarian ravings is that Project 2025 isn’t an empty threat, it’s a concrete plan that will roll back your rights and put the government in your life. We’ve been warned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFUtB-h0MSM
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:52 am
Trump is fucking harmless. Every ones know that he will continue Biden agenda and suck up to Israel in a big way. If Trump is not dangerous, who is this person they are afraid of, my guess would be they are afraid of me.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:54 am
They are afraid that the US and Canadian army put them self under my command. they know I will go after them.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:00 am
This is why I am putting my agenda here. if you put yourself under my command you know exactly what I would do and who I am going kill. If they put them self under my command, it means they agree with me and my execution list.
This is what they are afraid of Trump is fucking harmless.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:05 am
I made it very clear that if you put yourself under my command I will kill all the Jews living in North America.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:15 am
If you come to talk me make you sure that you can deposit 100 millions dollars in my bank account. To talk to me one time only it will cost you 100 millions dollars US. Make sure that you have the taxe paper done on my behalf that I will not be asked where this money is coming from anyone. This is to talk to me one time. It does not mean I will say yes. Make sure you have the fucking money with you.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:25 am
If you come to me understand the I hate UK, Israel and Europe, all of it, Japan and South Korea.
ee
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:02 pm
I told you earth will run of copper before oil.
il y a 9 minutes
remove
Pair of bolt cutters….39.44 at Amazon
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1269/tesla-v4-superchargers-power-design-and-cable-length-revealed
3 meter long cable
https://smartshop.lntebg.com/blog-articles/post/electrical-wiring-guide-cable-size-calculator-current-rating-chart-amps.html
~600 square mm cross sectional area.
Density of copper
8.935 g/cm3
1.8 million cubic millimeters of copper, 1000 cubic mm per cubic cm, 1800 cubic cm per cable or 16083 grams of copper (assuming relatively pure copper) per cable at at $0.15/gram that’s $2412.45 per cable for an ROI of 6,016.76% assuming you take only one cable.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/copper-scrappers-target-tesla-superchargers-metal-prices-soar
I love working with copper. Best material to do seals, better material to conduct electricity, best material to conduct heat, you can use it to weld.
I told you that I am here to collect your cadaver as per revelation 19.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:09 pm
I love copper. Best electrical conductor, best heat conductor, can be mixed with zinc to make brazing rod, Water resistant and long life in a non acidic environment, it be easy solder with low temperature flame and silver.
Good luck finding a replacement for that.
Your cadavers will be mine very soon. Never take away the handguns of a man.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:19 pm
This is funny as fuck. I am finally getting my fucking revenge. Most bullets shell are made of brass that is a mixture of copper and zinc. You run out of copper so you will be unable to kill people living in big cites because you cannot manufacture bullets. You so fucked. I finally get your fucking blood.
Certainly! Let’s explore the materials commonly used in bullets. Bullets are the projectiles within cartridges, and their composition has evolved over time. Here are some of the materials used:
Lead: Lead is likely the most common material in bullets. Some projectiles are made entirely of lead, such as lead round nose bullets. Others have lead cores, like full metal jacket rounds, where lead is wrapped in copper or other materials1.
Brass: Brass is commonly used for the shell casing of bullets. It provides strength and corrosion resistance. The shell wall thickness of modern bullets is typically 0.06–0.08 of their diameter2.
Copper: Copper is often used as a jacket material for bullets. The jacket surrounds the lead core, enhancing stability during flight and preventing barrel fouling. Copper jackets can be found in various shapes and designs.
Zinc: Zinc is sometimes used as an alternative to copper for bullet jackets. It offers similar benefits in terms of stability and barrel protection.
Plastics: Modern bullets may incorporate plastics in their design. These can be used for various purposes, such as creating frangible bullets that break apart upon impact or non-lethal options for law enforcement.
Rubber and Nylon: While less common, some specialty bullets use rubber or nylon components. These materials serve specific purposes, such as reducing ricochet risk or providing non-lethal alternatives
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:24 pm
Where do you think the copper is being allocate , right to China to keep the manufacturing of earth alive. The Western nations will be destroyed to save China, THe West will never be rebuilt. Still love your fucking Jews.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:31 pm
In certain on cheap welding regulator from China, I have seen them substituting brass for some kind of Aluminium alloy. You blood will be delivered to me as it was planned long ago.
Never take away the handgun of a man, he kill everyone on planet earth just for that.
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:38 pm
I told you the fucking interest rate are not high enough to stop in a meaningful way the the overconsumption of natural resources. You fucking interest rare should be around 10% at time moment. Fucking worthless losers. DO you know that the wiring inside of house is made of copper.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 2:53 pm
I am not sure that the most important natural resource on earth is oil, I think it is copper.
You are so fucked it is funny. You cannot kill people in your big cities because you cannot manufacture bullets shells because you are running out copper.
This a gracious moment in my life. I get my revenge for you taking me handguns away from me. Fucking delicious revenge, it is worth it.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:06 pm
Retribution against the Jews is about to start in the West and maybe around the world. Is this the end of the Jewish race, I think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSzPlBN36nc
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:11 pm
You are so fucked. You are fucked, you are going to die.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:13 pm
I have copper plumbing in my house. I was so sure that we were about to run out of copper, that I bound all kind of copper supplies 2 year ago. I have copper pipes, copper fitting, brass valve.
You have no idea how much you are fucked. You are already dead.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:19 pm
I bought my plumbing copper supplies 2 years ago. Just by looking at the price of copper and the copper water pipes low stock in renovation
center, I knew it was coming. I knew it was coming to year ago. Here it is now, right into your face and it is about to kill you.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:26 pm
You are fucking dead. I have not seen one failure of the principle of conservation of mass. It mean copper depletion will happen and kill everyone on earth. Earth was the perfect execution chamber. We won, you lost.
Look at how far up north in canada you went for copper. This show how precious it is went you go that north just for copper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfbp2TrYlwk
Exactly as predicted in revelation 19.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:33 pm
We have you corned now, and now you will die exactly as planned.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:36 pm
Never take away the handguns of man. Some men will kill you for that. I hope you are learning a valuable lesson here, even if you are going to die soon.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 3:55 pm
Finally the fucking trash will die, meaning the earth population, so we can move to something else.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 4:08 pm
Now that you are about to die you are doing something about immigration. You should have done something about it 20 year ago. It is too late you will die. You really fucking losers, this is why we are killing, we don’t need heavily mentally retarded people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz5ss6meVkM
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 4:13 pm
Now that you are about to die, suddenly just like that, you will stop immigration. You should have done that 20 year. It is too late now. This is why you are on earth and we will kill you, you are heavily mentally retarded and no good for nothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz5ss6meVkM
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 5:11 pm
Stupid cock sucker you are about to die. Show me one time where the principle of conservation of mass failed. I have never seen it. It means that copper depletion will happen, and it means you will die, as planned moons ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfbp2TrYlwk
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 5:44 pm
0:29 long neck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRZ9eLHCKTc
We are about to start the torture phase. You have seen nothing yet fucking cock suckers.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 5:55 pm
Now that earth has almost ran out of copper and oil, we are going to torture you good. You should suicide yourself now, while you still can.
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 6:54 pm
IT is too late. We are not moving into revenge.
Ma vener te chercher ma criss de chienne a Legault. Chriss de gestionnaires ma merde jamais capable the prendre des bonnes decision.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlhfyFU5zDY
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 6:59 pm
There is nothing earth ca do to fix the situation. You are about to run out of copper and oil. The real fun is about to begin.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 7:07 pm
Very soon the copper will run out and bullets manufacturing will slowdown or stop. Most likely you will not be able to find bullets even for th police force. It will hand to hand combat and your police force will abandon you.
J’ai hate te voir la grosse chienne a Legault se battre dans la rue sans protection.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 7:30 pm
Instead of telling that we are running out of copper and cannot make bullet case anymore, they will lie to you has always and come up with something else. They will blame it on shortage of nitrocellulose.
Very soon there will no police force, because there will be no bullet for their handgun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoRoYPAZrzk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WoTjYItdoQ
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 7:39 pm
The game will be completely different when the police show up and they have no gun. Guy like me will just kill them.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 7:42 pm
You send one cop on me without a gun, I kill him right on spot. Finally real fucking freedom.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 7:46 pm
Now that we are about to run out bullets, you will see divorced men killing divorce and alimony court judges. Glorious liberty and revenge.
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:59 pm
I have to look more into, but I think the lack of nitrocellulose might be caused by a grain crop lower output because of cold
RECORD MAY COLD SWEEPS EUROPEAN-RUSSIA, PROMPTING MAJOR RUSSIAN GRAIN GROWING REGIONS TO DECLARE AN EMERGENCY; + “HISTORIC” SOLAR STORM DELIVERS AURORAS TO ALL 50 U.S. STATES…
electroverse.info
No fucking cops around, real freedom. Very soon you will be able to kill Judges in broad day light.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:02 pm
It possible you are running out of copper and material to make nitrocellulose. No fucking bullets for the army or the cops. Real revenge will now be possible
rr on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:37 pm
It is going to be glorious. Eventually copper will have to be ration. Most like copper will go to make electrical wires, electrical motor first and bullets last. Eventually bullet won’t be available because of copper depletion. No bullets no cops, full on with revenge.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:45 pm
Apparently, I am right, you will run of copper before oil.
Currie: Copper Is the New Oil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHU1QXr4hq0
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:50 pm
I told you, your interest rate are not high enough to stop overconsumption of natural resources. Depletion of copper might what will kill modernity. You are so fucked. We have won, you have lost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHU1QXr4hq0
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:56 pm
That is real purpose of the movement defund the police. We are running of copper and you have to ration it and cannot afford to make bullets for the police force. As always you don’t want to say the truth, so you came up with BS movement of defund the police. that would make sense, only the language of lie is spoken on planet earth.
dd on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:07 pm
You are running out of copper. You dont want to tell the population that the production of bullets has slow down, because you still want to keep the illusion that polices forces are still lethal. So instead of saying the truth you came up with the BS movement of defund the police. The bible is right on this. they know only the language of lies.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:19 pm
I knew something was bizarre with this movement of defund the police. Now I know, you are trying to ration copper. No point to have a police force if they are not lethal. That makes so much more sense now. Defund the police movement makes sense now.
You are really fucked, dont you.
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:21 pm
I am currently taking a shit while writing this comment and I cannot stop laughing. You are totally fucked, LOOOOOOOOOOOOL
eee on Tue, 14th May 2024 10:25 pm
I am still sit on my toilet bowl and I cannot stop laughing at you. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 11:10 pm
C’est trop drôle. Nous allons tous mourir pis les connards ne sont toujours pas capable de dire la vérité. Ostie de christ que c’est drôle.
ee on Wed, 15th May 2024 12:17 am
0:23 this is really long neck. If this reality does not shutdown or if people don’t start to die and disappears well I don’t know. I guess we will have to kill fake imagtes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6w6kq4GkQE