It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 5:20 pm
Kill them all you are god. See images in the video. Disappointed at Australia for not openly celebrating the death of Jewish people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmDkJK3LaP4
Signed, Denis Trudel, aka, death owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 5:42 pm
This is me enjoying my time alone on earth after I killed everyone on earth. Replace the girl with me, replace the car with a F150 raptor, Ford ranger raptor or a Bronco raptor.
I also kill the cops when I get arrested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEuV82GqQnE
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth. Just look around, it has begun.
Signed, Denis Trudel, aka, death owner of the earth.
Alain Marcotte on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 7:46 pm
Ford Raptor package is basically a post apocalyptic package. 800 min of water wading according to the manual of the Ford Ranger raptor. Someone is preparing for the end of the world and preparing vehicles for the chosen ones that will stay on earth after the death of everyone and during the reboot of another simulation.
Here is the owner manual of the Ford ranger raptor.
https://www.fordservicecontent.com/Ford_Content/Catalog/owner_information/2025_Ranger_P703_TRD_OM_ENG_V1.pdf
Go to page 358. This is basically a vehicle to be able to travel around when roads be degraded because of lack of maintenance after the death of everyone on earth. Electrical locking differential in the front and rear and capable 800 mm of water wading make this a post apocalyptic vehicle. Some other people know that everyone on earth will die when the international globalist supply chain will stop.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 8:19 pm
This is video below is the video of a girl that survived some kind of apocalyptic event and has some kind of protection bubble. She can access food, transportation, gas, tools, cigarettes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEuV82GqQnE
I know what death is and I know that earth is built around the concept of death as a cohesion element.
Ford Raptor package is basically a post apocalyptic package. 800 min of water wading according to the manual of the Ford Ranger raptor. Someone is preparing for the end of the world and preparing vehicles for the chosen ones that will stay on earth after the death of everyone and during the reboot of another simulation.
Everyone that has a deep understanding of earth mathematical models knows that everyone on earth will die. Just preparing for the unavoidable with transportation tools such as raptor package.
Signed, Denis Trudel, aka, death owner of the earth.
Jean lemdire on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 8:53 pm
The transportation vehicles for the survivors of the end of the world are almost ready. The off road vehicles are almost ready: Ford raptor are almost ready, Ford Tremor coming Ford Ranger tremor Ranger coming in.
VTT vehicle are almost all done also:
https://can-am.brp.com/off-road/ca/fr/modeles/cote-a-cote/utilitaire-recreatif/defender.html#6×6-xt
Isabelle Jean on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 9:03 pm
ford ranger tremor is already available for the South Africa market. It is coming in North America soon. Slowly everything is being setup for the survivors of the end of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCNr_QTMWVU
Jean lamaire on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 9:24 pm
From what I can see, It looks like all kind of firearms will be available to survivors.
This is one example:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zkzT68dBp7I
It looks like they are making a lot of efforts to make the life of the survivors pleasurable and entertaining.
Jean marcotte on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 9:51 pm
The way that earth mathematical models are built it is guaranteed that everyone on earth will die. It is just normal to prepare for that day. It is just normal to keep some chosen ones on earth to see how they will reboot it. Everything I see is perfectly normale from my point of view. Ford raptor and tremor as post apocalyptic vehicles, firearms for personal protections against wild life, vtt for patrolling small trails make sense from this point of view.
Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 10:17 pm
Post apocalyptic pickup truck. Your fucking international supply chain is about to stop because of natural resources depletion, and what Ford is busy working on, post apocalyptic vehicle capable of 850 mm of water wading. Read my comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3873rpsht9A
Marine lapeinette on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 10:52 pm
I learn yesterday the water wading specifications for the ranger raptor. I had trouble to believe it was true. I downloaded the North America user manual only to find out that it was true. Go look at the Ford bronco raptor with its removal doors and removal top. Look like a patrol and land survey vehicle when its doors removed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd7Wi7ZqgFY
Stephane lamaire on Tue, 16th Dec 2025 11:48 pm
There is a lot of weird shit happening in the off road world. Shit I was not expecting, bead lock wheel, 800 mm water wading, factory install winch, lift kits, electronic looking differential. I got really suspicious about this. It really look like someone is preparing for the end of the world and building post apocalyptic vehicles for the chosen ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxv0CqlYZP8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZBtqfN3DwU
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 12:07 am
Earth is so fucked because of the mathematical model it uses. You guys are so fucked, you just have no idea if you don’t understand the mathematical models upon which earth reality is built. A reboot will be needed. I see no evidence that what you are doing such as long neck is even close to shut down earth reality. It is normale to prepare for the end of the world and build post apocalyptic vehicles for the chosen ones.
Signed, Denis Trudel,aka death, owner of the earth
Isabelle Lanthier on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 1:13 am
You are not willing to do what it takes to free yourself out of earth and your flesh body. You are not willing to kill all the Jews living on earth and declare war against Israel and the Jewish people. You don’t have want it takes to freed yourself from your flesh body and earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 1:17 am
This is why we are preparing post apocalyptic vehicles for the chosen ones. We know you will never leave earth because you don’t have what it takes to free yourself from your flesh body. You don’t have the courage to genocide the Jewish people and kill new born babies. We will watch earth population die and protect the chosen ones.
Signed, Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 1:30 am
You don’t have what it takes to challenge the real power. You are not courageous enough to have Trump and the prime minister of Australia openly say that they hate the Jews and are happy when Jewish people die. You are just fucking coward waiting for a savior that will not come. You will die here on earth like fucking coward because deep inside this is what you are. We are preparing for the death of everyone on earth, as i explain before.
Jean marcotte on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 7:40 am
Silver is around 66 dollar. It is us that has begun killing of the world population by jacking up the price of silver. We are ready to kill the world population and have the post apocalyptic vehicles and VTt ready. We can now move forward and kill the population of earth by jacking up the price of silver. See comments above about post apocalyptic vehicles. Silver is an industrial metal and we are now ready to shutdown the international supply chain by jacking up the price of silver. Some chosen ones are already under a partial protection bubble.
Isabelle jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 8:01 am
Boats for the chosen ones are also ready. We wants to keep chosen ones here on earth to see what kind of reality they will reboot after the dead of everyone on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMFeoNQ3dg4
Jean marie on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 8:33 am
Utility working machine are also ready.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOGdXTRZqys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCV55iUCo1s
We are ready for the next reboot of the simulation.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 8:48 am
Here are your land survey and patrol toys to monitor the next reboot. These are mathematic models that will be made available to the chosen one since, the international supply would be gone. It is a protection bubble, we don’t need a functioning supply chain, we will build mathematical models of the toys (raptors, boats, vtt) needed by the chosen ones. We are ready to bring down the international supply chain and kill the world population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuPVyJaEjYg
Typical toys that can be operated by one man.
Signed by Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Aalin jamal on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 9:14 am
chosen ones also have enhanced flesh body protection. For example, if a chosen one fall down on the ground in his working shop, he won’t hurt himself or feel any kind of pain.
All the blocks are being put in place as we speak. We are prepared for the end of the world and the death of earth population. We are also prepared for the next reboot and have people in place to monitor what will happen during the next reboot.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 10:03 am
Everything will shut down when we shutdown the international supply chain, including water treatment and water distribution system. Only the chosen ones with a protection bubble will have access to mathematical electricity and potable water, everyone else will be left with no water and electricity and will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w8Y4TwCUCs
We want to see the next reset and what kind of modifications they will make to earth mathematical models. This is why we are keeping chosen ones on earth to witness the next reboot.
Signed by Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 11:35 am
We will force them to reboot by killing all the population of earth. This will be achieved by manipulating the price of silver up until it disruptes the international supply chain and the supply of electronic devices. We are forcing a reboot on them to see what they will do.
We have already our chosen ones identified to witness the reboot and see what they will do to earth in real time. We have transportation toys available to patrol the land and catch early on the changes they will try to do to earth reality. We assume they will keep the flesh body and the matrix of solid concept alive but they will make some changes to it.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 11:40 am
We will also improve the flesh body and abilities of the chosen ones. Long term eternal memory, fast healing, enhanced flesh body protection, enhanced vision, enhanced earing, enhanced psychic abilities, protective energy field to stop any unauthorized modifications of the chosen ones and so on.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 12:43 pm
You really have nice patrol boats to check around to see what is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32AQXs42z1w
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 12:52 pm
We are about that ass fuck everyone I hate.
Jean marie on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 12:53 pm
We are about to ass fuck everyone I hate.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 1:12 pm
Have you ever felt down on the ground in your workshop. You hit an open drawer on the way down and knock you head against the wall. No fucking pain, no bleeding, you get up and go to bed and sleep like a baby.
We are about to ass fuck all the people I hate on this earth and even more.
Signed by Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Regina Laparie on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 3:19 pm
We will keep some chosen ones in a protection bubble with toys to patrol the land. Trying to catch them when they reboot earth and make modifications to earth reality before repopulating. This is the plan. See previous comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gig_rrGqfqQ
Isable marcotte on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 3:41 pm
Trying to boast birth rate by hoping that people with have random sex with unknown partners. It did not work at all. I remember this epoch. We also had these for 18 year old and over where alcool was served. Another failed strategy to boost birth rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNVepuHIxoU
IT is guaranteed they will have to reboot. We want to have been in place when it will happen.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 3:54 pm
I had discussion with them about the time scale of the protection bubble and the chosen ones.
A chosen one cannot have the same clock has earth reality: 24 hours a day, 365 day a year. The chosen one has to have its own time scale otherwise he cannot be immortal and have an eternal memory. He must have his own time scale that is locked and cannot be modified externally.
Jean Marie on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 4:37 pm
It is expensive to create an eternal with his own internal clock. You need access to an infinite source of energy. It radiate out some much energy that nothing can live around an eternal.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 4:53 pm
No, if you use an human from earth and turn him into an eternal he will swallow all the earth energy field and destroy earth. After that his energy field will extend beyond earth as his infinite eternal memory expand and his energy footprint will expand to infinity.
He will occupy an infinite space inside an infinite universe that has no dimension because it is infinite.
Isabelle Lapierre on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:02 pm
I understand your fucking question. It is just a temporary thing. Eventually earth will be destroy by the energy radiating out of the eternal. Just a temporary thing.
Alain Jamal on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:05 pm
Yes I assume that earth and a finite energy field and is not capable of extending beyond its define borders. It is a contain energetic reality unlike an eternal that is not contained and can expand to infinity.
Rebarge Jen on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:11 pm
You should know these things, it is not the first time we are doing that.
Nathalie jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:17 pm
yes a sequential logical processor to access the infinite memory and organize it in sequence over another infinite programming memory.
Yes, but it is defined later on after configuring none configured energy unit.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:20 pm
Let’s start by killing people that I hate first. Plenty of time for these questions later on.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Nathalie jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:33 pm
You cannot store eternity inside an human flesh body. Are you sure you did this before.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 5:38 pm
You can only store eternity inside an infinity. You cannot store eternity inside a flesh body. I think it is fucking obvious, fucking loser. I told you to not fuck with me , that I would kill you all. I told you to not fuck with my weapons also.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 10:48 pm
Earth mathematics and chemical models are too simplistic. These simplistic models limit what can be achieved technologically speaking. Earth has no future because of the limited periodic table. Earth mathematics have to much discontinuities issues limiting the mathematical solving of complex equation limiting the technological expansion of earth. See AI development for a perfect example of what I am saying. See battery car or electrical vehicle for another example of what I am saying
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 11:09 pm
I recommend killing everyone on earth immediately while I still have access to a flesh body. I won’t be inside a flesh body forever. We have a limited opportunity to collect information about earth. We should kill everyone on earth and force them to reboot earth, just to see what kind of modification they will do to earth mathematical, chemical and life biological model. I don’t expect much from them, but it would be nice to collect this information while earth is still alive.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 11:19 pm
Regarding my personal time scale or clock you should use it for objects attached to my protection bubble. My internal clock is an eternal clock, meaning that if you bring a Ford Ranger Raptor inside my protection bubble and attach the Raptor to my internal clock, the Raptor should never ages and be protected against earth entropic degradation and aging. Can you program that. Can you program objects attachment to my personal eternal clock.
Isabelle Jean on Wed, 17th Dec 2025 11:23 pm
Yes, we have to start killing everyone on earth now. I won’t have access to a flesh body forever. Time opportunity are limited. We have to force them to reboot and repopulate. Only than we will be able to collect interesting datas.
Jean lamarche on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 12:06 am
There are no male and female body. There is only one type of human physical flesh body, to this generic human flesh body you attach either a vagina or a penis. There is no such thing as a female or male, there is only a androgynous generic body that upon which you attach either a vagina or a penis. This is why sexual reproduction does not work, because the human female is not different enough from the male to be sexually attractive to the male. This is why birth rates are low. They basically don’t know how to design a viable reality based on sexual reproduction.
Isable oula on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 12:13 am
I want to see a reboot to see how they will modify the human female to make her more attractive. Currently this human androgynous generic body model is not working. I want to see what they will come up with. See comment above.
Pablo Rodide on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 1:25 am
Pablo has the same face as Kenny Rodgers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0J-vHEegoU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnAHN1guHbs
Kenny Rodgers on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 1:29 am
Pablo has the same face as Kenny Rodgers.
See what I mean
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0J-vHEegoU
Isabelle jean on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 1:36 am
I doubt that. If my memory is accurate, as my eternal memory grows, so is my energy needs to contain these information. I will radiate out so much energy that I will become toxic and I will swallow everything surrounding me including earth and everything on it. This is how I remember it. I won’t have access to a flesh body forever. It is just a temporary station for me.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 2:07 am
We are about to ass fuck earth and everyone I hate. First ones to be ass fucked are :Jews, Europeans French and British. After that the rest of the world.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 18th Dec 2025 2:31 am
I won’t have access to a flesh body for ever. I want to see the Jewish, French, British and European all die in front of my eyes while I am still in a flesh body. I want to see these useless cock sucker die in front of me look the worlesw parasite they all are.