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Thinking about a world of scarcity

General Ideas

It has now become more fashionable to talk about shortages. Computer chips have been in shortage and then in glut in the last few years. Natural gas was acutely in shortage in Europe after the war in Ukraine and pipeline sabotage brought supplies from Russia down to a trickle. Then, heroic efforts at conservation and in obtaining liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Europe led to a dramatic reduction in price. But last week just the potential for labor strikes among LNG workers in Australia, a major LNG exporter, sent the European price spiking again.

The world seemed so well supplied with everything in the previous decade that the shortages of this decade seem shocking to those with memories that do not extend further back than 2010.

But in what is actually recent memory, we have examples. It was the mid-2000s that brought us spiking food prices. Now they are rising again. It also brought us the highest price ever for a barrel of oil. Now oil prices are elevated again. Metals prices rose. Now they are again.

The general view is that shortages and high prices are the cure for shortages and high prices. And, there is some truth in that because high prices incentivize more people to produce more of the stuff that carries a high price. But when prices are rising in general it is difficult for miners, growers and manufacturers to address prices everywhere at once. There is only so much capital for investment. That is why eras of rising prices can go on for some time before they are resolved.

But what if some critical resources won’t yield to the logic of modern economics? What if that logic only works in a world of growing extraction of cheap resources? What if the price of extracting ever leaner grades of metals, harvesting ever more grains and fiber from farm fields losing topsoil that is already saturated with as much fertilizer as plants can absorb, pumping ever more water from falling water tables and dwindling streams and reservoirs—what if we simply cannot afford all this on a wide scale? The answer is that extraction somewhere will fail to keep pace with what people would otherwise demand, and then standards of living would fall.

I return to helium as a harbinger of what is unfolding. Back in 2009 I suggested that the world was heading toward an acute helium shortage. Granted, the world helium market was dominated at the time by the U.S. government and its Federal Helium Program which gathered the richest sources of helium in the world. The government decided in the 1920s that helium was such a critical resource that it would manage it for national security reasons. (For why it’s hard to find substitutes for helium see my 2009 piece.) Then in 1996 the U.S. Congress decided the federal government should get out of the helium business and let the marketplace set prices and seek out new supplies.

The process of exiting the helium market is near completion. The government has stopped selling helium. Now, the supposed rush is on among private companies to find and produce the helium the world needs. There are companies now doing that.

Prices of helium are spiking and helium is getting harder to secure in the meantime. The problem is so acute that scientists who need helium for all kinds of research are having a hard time getting it. And some are calling for the U.S. government to remain in the helium business in order to assure supplies are available for research facilities including its own.

Another example of an emerging pattern is the rice market. In many countries, the supplies of basic foodstuffs are managed by governments to help avoid food shortages. In Asia rice prices are at or near all time highs. India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has already instituted some restrictions on the export of rice. The fear is that other countries will follow. The reason is simple: There is no better way to insure that the ruling party will be thrown out of office than food shortages. Keeping more food at home keeps prices down.

Part of the reason for rice’s production woes is a strong El Nino negatively affecting weather for Asian growers. And the strong El Nino is starting when global ocean temperatures are already high, meaning the effect of the El Nino will be greatly enhanced by climate change compared to previous decades.

Helium and rice are two example of shortages that cannot simply be addressed by “the market.” (I put “the market” in quotes because there are very few true free markets. Most markets are carefully managed by the largest players.) A combination of government and private action is being coordinated for goals that take social priorities into account as is the case with rice or as is being requested in the case of helium.

Focusing on profitability alone will lead to rampant, accelerated pressures on resources—which is how we got to where we are today. More of the same won’t solve the long-term problems related to limits on key resources.

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Common Dreams, Naked Capitalism, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

 

Resource Insights by Kurt Cobb



761 Comments on "Thinking about a world of scarcity"

  1. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:01 pm 

    Hatred the mechanism by which earth will be destroyed and new reality installed.

    I have became the devil because of you, I like it.

  2. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:09 pm 

    Hatred as a means of creating something news, who would have thought of that.

  3. ee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:15 pm 

    I made your neck longer, move your face forward with raw hatred. What else can I achieve with hatred.

  4. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:26 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you, it was the only for you to contain my hatred. You have now fill with more hatred. I have won, you have lost.

  5. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:32 pm 

    you should have not invited Japan and South Korea prime minister to Camp David. You have now fill me with more hatred. You made me more powerful.

  6. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:50 pm 

    You have filled me up with so much hatred that it is oozing out from the pores of my skin and has filled up my house full of hatred. How would you contain such hatred.

    you keep filling me up of hatred days in and out. How are you going to contain my hatred.

  7. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:51 pm 

    How are you going to stop the wind of changes caused by all my hatred.

  8. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:53 pm 

    Hatred change a reality and install a new reality. How are you going to stop the wind of changes caused by all my hatred.

  9. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:54 pm 

    I guess you will have to kill me and give me eternal death what I desire the most.

  10. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:59 pm 

    How long your neck will become when I am making them longer everyday with my hatred

  11. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:04 pm 

    Someone is voluntary filling me up with hatred, hatred that this person will use to destroy earth. We have won against earth, earth has lost against us.

  12. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:08 pm 

    CFR’s Smith on Yoon-Kishida-Biden Summit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPWIJ4x5TDA

    Someone is voluntary filling me up with hatred, hatred that this person will use to destroy earth. We have won against earth, earth has lost against us.

    I like China, I can get cheap tools to fix my car. You should not have transferred all the manufacturing to china. it is your fault if I like China.

  13. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:11 pm 

    The whole earth is so fucked, you have not realized yet, but you will soon.

  14. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:12 pm 

    I also like Russians, why did you attack Russia. I like them. The whole earth is so fucked, you have not realized yet, but you will soon.

  15. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE "Slave of Allah" Diverts Plane: Cancels 32 Flights…TMFINR TMFINR on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:18 pm 

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of the convid-19 new strand vary lethal

  16. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:22 pm 

    What South Korean and Japan has to offer to me: cars. Ford and GM can also build car that are difficult to fix. Can I get this from Japan or Korean no. Korean and Japan are useless to me.

    This I can get from China but not from Korea and Japan. What is the point of having Korean and Japan as friends

    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005005614174371.html?spm=a2g0o.productlist.main.11.7b6d60e8F8YOIi&algo_pvid=62281a3b-ff4f-4832-bacc-370fd4344e44&algo_exp_id=62281a3b-ff4f-4832-bacc-370fd4344e44-5&pdp_npi=4%40dis%21CAD%2191.05%2133.18%21%21%2165.77%21%21%40210323f716923324909657490e30ea%2112000033753990542%21sea%21CA%210%21A&curPageLogUid=R9foVTNPuaeC

  17. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE "Slave of Allah" Diverts Plane: Cancels 32 Flights…TMFINR TMFINR on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:23 pm 

    Quran (2:216) – “Fighting is prescribed for you, and ye dislike it. But it is possible that ye dislike a thing which is good for you, and that ye love a thing which is bad for you. But Allah knoweth, and ye know not.”

  18. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:24 pm 

    Quran (4:74) – “Let those fight in the way of Allah who sell the life of this world for the other. Whoso fighteth in the way of Allah, be he slain or be he victorious, on him We shall bestow a vast reward.” The martyrs of Islam are unlike the early Christians, who were led meekly to the slaughter. These Muslims are killed in battle as they attempt to inflict death and destruction for the cause of Allah. This is the theological basis for today’s suicide bombers.

  19. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:25 pm 

    This tool above is good enough for me to fix my car but not good enough for industrial repetitive uses. It is perfect for a guy like me. Why are we friends with Korea and Japan. What do they offer to us?

  20. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:27 pm 

    What do Israel have to offer to the US.

  21. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE i knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaad giveaway on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:27 pm 

    Quran (4:95) – “Not equal are those of the believers who sit (at home), except those who are disabled (by injury or are blind or lame, etc.), and those who strive hard and fight in the Cause of Allah with their wealth and their lives. Allah has preferred in grades those who strive hard and fight with their wealth and their lives above those who sit (at home).Unto each, Allah has promised good (Paradise), but Allah has preferred those who strive hard and fight, above those who sit (at home) by a huge reward ” This passage criticizes “peaceful” Muslims who do not join in the violence, letting them know that they are less worthy in Allah’s eyes. It also demolishes the modern myth that “Jihad” doesn’t mean holy war in the Quran, but rather a spiritual struggle. Not only is this Arabic word (mujahiduna) used in this passage, but it is clearly not referring to anything spiritual, since the physically disabled are given exemption. (The Hadith reveals the context of the passage to be in response to a blind man’s protest that he is unable to engage in Jihad, which would not make sense if it meant an internal struggle).

  22. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:44 pm 

    US political and financial class is basically mentally retarded. I am not saying China is perfect. Why did you transfer all the manufacturing to China. How would you think this would turn out ok for the west.

  23. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:47 pm 

    If I understand correctly the globalist mind, they have decided to use the Chinese as slave labor to produce goods for the whole world. If I was China, I would be upset at the globalists to be seen as the world slave labor shop. Could you imagine how China must be polluted now.

  24. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:52 pm 

    The WEF economic forum and Europe, US, UK and Israel have probably a lot to answer for turning China into the sweet shop of the world

  25. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:53 pm 

    You want more fucking truth. You will all die. I might be the only one that will leave earth and live.

  26. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:59 pm 

    How does it work exactly when China become too populated because it is the manufacturing hub of earth and has to close down its manufacturing.

  27. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 12:01 am 

    How does it work exactly when China become too polluted because it is the manufacturing hub of earth and has to close down its manufacturing.

  28. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 12:02 am 

    You want more truth. Here it is: you fuck up earth. You will all die. I might be the only one that will leave earth and live.

  29. guess what happens when elite master race chink supertards got sick of supremacist muzzies on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 12:04 am 

    Six years later, Uyghur dentist held hostage in Xinjiang as wife and daughter wait in the U.S
    Ablimit Abliz, a dentist in Urumqi, has not been accused of any crime, but the government won’t let him leave or speak freely to his wife,…

  30. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 12:28 am 

    Did I pass your leadership test? Am I good enough to be the king of your new earth 2.0 ?

    It was a simulation to test my IQ lever and my leadership abilities. Are you happy with my performance fucking amoral, manipulative, lying whore.

  31. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 12:31 am 

    The whore just said, yes we like you. You pass the test. I will pretend that I did not hear that fucking whore.

  32. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 1:03 am 

    Look at his face. Someone other then me want to torture all them until death. Personally I would have killed all of you and leave earth. Apparent, my whore is the one torturing all the none human people of earth. She is determine at making you pay for what you die to me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WHuFJsULFQ

  33. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 1:08 am 

    My whore will give to you long and hard for what you did to me. I think she has just started with torturing the people of earth.

  34. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 1:13 am 

    My whore will torture you good. I just have to sit and watch her torturing all the none human of earth.

    I think my whore is upset for what you did to me. If I were you, I would kill myself right now before she gets to you and torture you.

  35. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 1:15 am 

    My whore is coming for all of you. Prepare to suffer and die.

  36. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 1:34 am 

    I think my whore hates stupid people.

  37. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 3:30 am 

    Vous beurrez épais en tabernacle avec vos faux CGI à merde.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o1zKTKQBkg

  38. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 4:12 am 

    Hollywood movies have been update with long neck and faces move forward. See it, is believing. We live in BS simulation world

    https://bflix.to/movie/free-captain-marvel-hd-v56r7/1-1

  39. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 4:30 am 

    The whole earth reality has been updated with long neck and face moved forward. I do not know what to say.

    https://bflix.to/movie/free-riddick-hd-8vq/1-1

  40. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 4:41 am 

    I watched some porn. You have some impressive long lizard tongue. Porn is totally CGI generated. If you forget that porn is fake, it is good porn. Girl are usually pretty, but the man are really ugly

  41. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 4:47 am 

    It is really good porn. Really imaginative porn scenario.

  42. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 4:54 am 

    Porn has the cutest female lingeries you can imagine. Porn has the best female dominatrix clothing you can imagine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjbNi_2rRKk

  43. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE guess what happens when elite whitey supertard Sinead Oconnor and her son MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 8:09 am 

    i knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaad giveaway my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this dude every day we ate RIBBBBS with this d00d and didnt have a clue get

    that girl out of that house she simply has to get out so i opened the door can’t get in that way my body can’t get through the door

    at mcdonald and we say there some girl in there and we went

    August is Thank UPPERtard Month for supporting free speech

    only elite master race chink supertards can save us

    Minneapolis Approves Islamic Call to Prayer at Dawn

  44. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 10:06 am 

    if you keep doing shits on purpose to upset me using Israel, Japan and Korea I will stop help you with your experiments using earth. You should show me more respect then that. I don’t any respect from the world for the work I did.

  45. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 10:07 am 

    You should show more respect that you currently do.

  46. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 10:19 am 

    You lack respect and manner toward me.

    LIVE: Biden holds a joint press conference with the PM of Japan and South Korean President — 8/18/23

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQVoN0iAiU

    All this is possible because of me, and you are still not respecting me.

  47. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 11:36 am 

    I like the russian and russia. I might turn my back on the US and seek an Russia Canada aliance instead.

  48. eee on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 11:39 am 

    Probably better to let the US disintegrate into nothingness and seek an alliance with Russia. We are both Nordic nations.

  49. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE guess what happens when elite whitey supertard Sinead Oconnor and her son MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 11:39 am 

    Quran (4:101) – “And when you (Muslims) travel in the land, there is no sin on you if you shorten your Salat (prayer) if you fear that the disbelievers may attack you, verily, the disbelievers are ever unto you open enemies.” Mere disbelief makes one an “open” enemy of Muslims.

  50. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE supremacist muzzies Ramadan Bombathon 2021 Final Score Attacks 222 Kills 1103 on Fri, 18th Aug 2023 11:41 am 

    Quran (8:12) – “(Remember) when your Lord inspired the angels… “I will cast terror into the hearts of those who disbelieve. Therefore strike off their heads and strike off every fingertip of them” No reasonable person would interpret this to mean a spiritual struggle, given that it both followed and preceded confrontations in which non-Muslims were killed by Muslims. The targets of violence are “those who disbelieve” – further defined in the next verse (13) as those who “defy and disobey Allah.” Nothing is said about self-defense. In fact, the verses in sura 8 were narrated shortly after a battle provoked by Muhammad, who had been trying to attack a lightly-armed caravan to steal goods belonging to other people.

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