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Page added on August 13, 2023

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Thinking about a world of scarcity

General Ideas

It has now become more fashionable to talk about shortages. Computer chips have been in shortage and then in glut in the last few years. Natural gas was acutely in shortage in Europe after the war in Ukraine and pipeline sabotage brought supplies from Russia down to a trickle. Then, heroic efforts at conservation and in obtaining liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Europe led to a dramatic reduction in price. But last week just the potential for labor strikes among LNG workers in Australia, a major LNG exporter, sent the European price spiking again.

The world seemed so well supplied with everything in the previous decade that the shortages of this decade seem shocking to those with memories that do not extend further back than 2010.

But in what is actually recent memory, we have examples. It was the mid-2000s that brought us spiking food prices. Now they are rising again. It also brought us the highest price ever for a barrel of oil. Now oil prices are elevated again. Metals prices rose. Now they are again.

The general view is that shortages and high prices are the cure for shortages and high prices. And, there is some truth in that because high prices incentivize more people to produce more of the stuff that carries a high price. But when prices are rising in general it is difficult for miners, growers and manufacturers to address prices everywhere at once. There is only so much capital for investment. That is why eras of rising prices can go on for some time before they are resolved.

But what if some critical resources won’t yield to the logic of modern economics? What if that logic only works in a world of growing extraction of cheap resources? What if the price of extracting ever leaner grades of metals, harvesting ever more grains and fiber from farm fields losing topsoil that is already saturated with as much fertilizer as plants can absorb, pumping ever more water from falling water tables and dwindling streams and reservoirs—what if we simply cannot afford all this on a wide scale? The answer is that extraction somewhere will fail to keep pace with what people would otherwise demand, and then standards of living would fall.

I return to helium as a harbinger of what is unfolding. Back in 2009 I suggested that the world was heading toward an acute helium shortage. Granted, the world helium market was dominated at the time by the U.S. government and its Federal Helium Program which gathered the richest sources of helium in the world. The government decided in the 1920s that helium was such a critical resource that it would manage it for national security reasons. (For why it’s hard to find substitutes for helium see my 2009 piece.) Then in 1996 the U.S. Congress decided the federal government should get out of the helium business and let the marketplace set prices and seek out new supplies.

The process of exiting the helium market is near completion. The government has stopped selling helium. Now, the supposed rush is on among private companies to find and produce the helium the world needs. There are companies now doing that.

Prices of helium are spiking and helium is getting harder to secure in the meantime. The problem is so acute that scientists who need helium for all kinds of research are having a hard time getting it. And some are calling for the U.S. government to remain in the helium business in order to assure supplies are available for research facilities including its own.

Another example of an emerging pattern is the rice market. In many countries, the supplies of basic foodstuffs are managed by governments to help avoid food shortages. In Asia rice prices are at or near all time highs. India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has already instituted some restrictions on the export of rice. The fear is that other countries will follow. The reason is simple: There is no better way to insure that the ruling party will be thrown out of office than food shortages. Keeping more food at home keeps prices down.

Part of the reason for rice’s production woes is a strong El Nino negatively affecting weather for Asian growers. And the strong El Nino is starting when global ocean temperatures are already high, meaning the effect of the El Nino will be greatly enhanced by climate change compared to previous decades.

Helium and rice are two example of shortages that cannot simply be addressed by “the market.” (I put “the market” in quotes because there are very few true free markets. Most markets are carefully managed by the largest players.) A combination of government and private action is being coordinated for goals that take social priorities into account as is the case with rice or as is being requested in the case of helium.

Focusing on profitability alone will lead to rampant, accelerated pressures on resources—which is how we got to where we are today. More of the same won’t solve the long-term problems related to limits on key resources.

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Common Dreams, Naked Capitalism, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

 

Resource Insights by Kurt Cobb



761 Comments on "Thinking about a world of scarcity"

  1. eee on Wed, 16th Aug 2023 9:51 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world whne I asked you. I have already won, the whole earth has already lost against me.

  2. eee on Wed, 16th Aug 2023 9:56 pm 

    You don’t seem to understand there will be no turning back from my part. I moved on to something better and that fit my personality better. Fuck the earth. If I cannot get what I want, I will go with eternal death. Either way I have already won.

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  5. i appoint all registered supertards Tanada EnergyUnlimited theluckycountry Newfie AdamB supertard their title is 'the lover' of supremacist muzzies on Wed, 16th Aug 2023 11:05 pm 

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  6. we need amputating whitey supertard atheistic scientific supremacist thunderf00t it’s scientism when this whitey supertard went on self imposed quarantine back in march this year, i said it smells on Wed, 16th Aug 2023 11:31 pm 

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  7. eee on Wed, 16th Aug 2023 11:56 pm 

    Only the people that will leave earth will live. Everyone else will die. Mechanics shortage. 4.3 hours pay for a 20 hours jobs. These guys are getting fuck by big corporations. Prepare to die if you stay on earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uR1-FsIw_WA

    Only the people that will leave earth will live

  8. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:04 am 

    I was your last hope to save western civilization. You should have killed all the Jews of planet earth when I asked you and not questioned me. If your life is worth something to you, all the Jews of planet earth would be already dead. You chose to save the Jews life over your own life, so everyone dies.

  9. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:07 am 

    I moved on to something else and there will be no turning back from me. You will all die, because you deserve to die, it is that simple.

  10. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:27 am 

    Until wages are in line with skills, find another field. This isn’t a good choice for a living. Read the comments in the video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BA21kR_Sg

    Only people that will leave earth will live, all the other people will die.

  11. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:29 am 

    You decided to save Jews life instead of yours. Everyone will die

    I was your last hope to save western civilization. You should have killed all the Jews of planet earth when I asked you and not questioned me. If your life is worth something to you, all the Jews of planet earth would be already dead. You chose to save the Jews life over your own life, so everyone dies.

  12. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:33 am 

    You should have killed all the Jews when I asked and stop all trade with Israel.

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    On This Day Aug, 17, 2022: Afghanistan Kabul 21 117 Twenty-one are killed when a suicide bomber strikes a rival mosqu

  15. SHOCKER ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of the convid-19 new strand vary lethal TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:07 am 

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  16. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:19 am 

    I was your last hope. You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked. Japan and Korean prime minister should stay in their nations and never set foot on North America soil for ever. You think you know better them me. Ok then.

  17. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:22 am 

    This is another reason why I gave on the US, You refuse to listen to me, Ok then die.
    You refuse to obey me, then die mother fuckers.

    US Trilateral Summit: Joe Biden to host crucial summit at Camp David | Live Discussion | WION

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IntNc_lW6pg

  18. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:27 am 

    We have the Japan Toyota car dealership fucking over North America car mechanic and you invite in America n soil Japan and Korean prime minister, what the fuck is wrong with you.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uR1-FsIw_WA

  19. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:43 am 

    there is no reason to worship and suck the asshole of South Korean and Japanese. Ford and GM can also build car that are difficult to repair. Why do we need the Korean and Japanese as friends of the US. Now you understand why I moved on why you have to deal with such low quality North American leadership and fucking coward.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uR1-FsIw_WA

  20. TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR SHOCKER ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 9:55 am 

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  21. supertard eee yes cars should be made out of lego but it wont happen cuz they want to sell new cars TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR SHOCKER ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:19 am 

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  22. supremacist muzzes On This Day Aug 17 2020: India Batamaloo 1 0 A woman is killed during a Hib-ul-Mujahideen firing TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR SHOCKER ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:22 am 

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  23. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:29 am 

    Why does the US endorse globalism. The Japanese and Koreans are abusing the US. They expect the US to enforce globalism while South Korea and Japan don’t help enforcing globalism using their own militaries. Both nations benefit greatly from globalism they should also use their own militaries they help the US to enforce globalism.

    Why is the US sucking up their assholes.

  24. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:34 am 

    The skin on my forearms is burning. This usually means more skin body update. Only the people that will leave earth will live. You should have killed all the Jews when I asked you and stop being a globalist whore. I moved on to something else that will benefit me first instead of benefit the whole earth first. I am done helping earth. Die alone mother fuckers.

  25. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:42 am 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you and stop enforcing globalism that mainly benefit other nations like Japan and Korea that are sucking the life out of the US.

    I moved on to something else. I have already won, you have already lost. Either way I win, either I get eternal death or I leave earth. You have already lost.

    I MOVED ON to something else. You will see that I mean it as time go forward.

  26. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:45 am 

    Mostly likely I will leave earth as they want my mathematical knowledge and my creativity. All the population of earth will stay here and die.

    You should have killed all the Jews of the earth when I asked you.

  27. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:48 am 

    Even China is contributing something toward globalism by helping Africa. What do other nations contribute toward globalism. What does Europe contribute toward enforcing globalism other then BS international law system that nobody really followed or like.

  28. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 10:53 am 

    Now the elites of North America care about the car merchandise shortage because they are now afraid of dying and know now they will be killed by an enraged population. I am not going to be your sucker that fixes all of yours mistakes that you did. You should have care about car and diesel mechanics shortages before we get to that point.

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you.

  29. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:00 am 

    Never forget that UK and Europe create WW1 and WW2 to push globalism on the planet earth. Never forget that UK created Israel as a way to control the US”

  30. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:03 am 

    Never forget also the earth is just a simulation. I feel no remorse letting all the population of earth die, as earth is just a simulation. I am just killing simulation characters with fake long neck that goes against the knowledge of medical books.

    Just fucking get my out of here.

  31. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:08 am 

    I can see this whole simulation when I extent my forearm forward, close one eyes and look at the border between my skin and the wall behind me. It is just a fucking simulation and I am the center of this simulation. I will set this whole fucking earth in fire.

  32. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:15 am 

    GOD and I will destroy your whole fucking crappy earth.

    ANTARCTICA BREAKS *MULTIPLE* ALL-TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS; + THE BBC ATTEMPTS TO REWRITE THE HISTORY BOOKS

    https://electroverse.info/antarctica-all-time-cold-bbc-rewrites-history-books/

  33. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:17 am 

    I will destroy you whole fucking crappy earth.

    Hurricane Hilary Could ‘Rapidly Intensify’ Into Major Hurricane With Crosshairs On Southern California

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/storm-hilary-churns-pacific-forecasted-hit-southern-california

  34. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 11:20 am 

    I will set your piece of shit earth simulation in fire and watch it burn from above.

  35. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:15 pm 

    I will set this whole fucking planet on fire. I see the fucking simulation now just by looking at a electrical pole on the background of a blue sky. If you look at the border of the electrical pole, you see a separation between the electrical pole and the sky.

    I will set this piece of shit earth simulation on fire.

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you.

  36. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:16 pm 

    I want everyone dead. I want to use earth simulation to advance my personal projectd
    s that will benefit me first and foremost. I am fixing the problems that have created on earth. Your time is up.

  37. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:17 pm 

    I am NOT fixing the problems that you have created on earth. Your time is up.

  38. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:32 pm 

    It does not matter what kind of theater you play going forward like this garbage below:

    Les États-Unis donnent leur accord pour la vente de missiles israéliens Arrow 3 à l’Allemagne

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLK-90rofYU

    I want everyone on planet earth dead and I want to clean, virgin and empty energetic field to push my own personal projects. Either I leave earth or earth energetic field will be totally erased ( no earth, no soil, no water) to give me something new to work on.

    Your time is up. I can see the fucking matrix,

  39. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:43 pm 

    Your time is up for earth and the whole population of earth. It is time to try something new and transfert earth energetic field ownership to someone that has something new to offer, that would be me.

  40. this article is about burning down elite whitey supertards home so elite darkie supertard Oprah can buy it for pennies on a dollar on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:46 pm 

    TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR SHOCKER ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of the convid-19 new strand vary lethal

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks

    please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  41. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:53 pm 

    Yes fucking whore, we will do advanced mathematic together.

  42. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 12:56 pm 

    Clean the fucking energetic fiels whore and kill the whole population of earth, and flush out all the algorithms of earth energetic field. We are starting from scratch. We are done with earth.

  43. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:04 pm 

    Yes whore we might to do. It is a good ideal

  44. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:12 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked. It is too late I have moved on to something else. You should have not invited Japan and Korea to the Whites house.

  45. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:14 pm 

    Yes whore, we will do maths together.

  46. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:18 pm 

    Yes whore will do math together. We can even come up with a new kind of mathematical fire equation that contain twice the heat of the current fire we have on earth.

    ‘Like a flamethrower’: Harbor captain describes Lahaina wildfire

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo97KG7OZzI

  47. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:19 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked. It is too late I have moved on to something else. You should have not invited Japan and Korea to the Whites house. Made a big mistake to meet Japan and Korea prime minster.

  48. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:21 pm 

    How long will take. Something like 5 millions planetary year to do what I want to do. We have talk about that in the past

  49. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:25 pm 

    What, you want to create more powerful tornados and hurricanes. You have to change the compressible fluid dynamic algorithms. I moved on to something else once you refused to kill all the Jews of the world.

  50. eee on Thu, 17th Aug 2023 1:43 pm 

    You should have done what I asked you regarding the Jews problem. I moved on to something else that will benefit me first.

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