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Some reflections on the Twilight of the Oil Age (Part II)
by Louis Arnoux
Part 2 – Enquiring into the appropriateness of the question
Let’s acknowledge it, the situation we are in, as depicted summarily in Part 1, is complex. As many commentators like to state, there is still plenty of oil, coal, and gas left “in the ground”. Since 2014, debates have been raging, concerning the assumed “oil glut”, concerning how low oil prices may go down, how high prices may rebound as demand possibly picks up and the “glut” vanishes, and, in the face of all this, what may or may not happen regarding “renewables”. However, in my view, the situation is not impossible to analyse rigorously, away from what may appear as common sense but that may not withstand scrutiny. For example, Part 1 data have indicated,that most of what’s left in terms of fossil fuels is likely to stay where it is, underground, unless having access to difficult to agree upon resource management policies, simply because this is what thermodynamics dictates.
We can now venture a little bit further if we keep firmly in mind that the globalised industrial world (GIW), and by extension all of us, do not “live” on fossil resources but on net energy delivered by the global energy system; and if we also keep in mind that, in this matter, oil-derived transport fuels are the key since, without them, none of the other fossil and nuclear resources can be mobilised and the GIW itself can’t function.
In my experience, most often, when faced with such a broad spectrum of conflicting views, especially involving matters pertaining to physics and the social sciences, the lack of agreement is indicative that the core questions are not well formulated. Physicist David Bohm liked to stress: “In scientific enquiries, a crucial step is to ask the right question. Indeed each question contains presuppositions, largely implicit. If these presuppositions are wrong or confused, the question itself is wrong, in the sense that to try to answer it has no meaning. One has thus to enquire into the appropriateness of the question.”
Here it is important, in terms of system analysis, to differentiate between the global energy industry (say, GEI) and the GIW. The GEI bears the brunt of thermodynamics directly, and within the GEI, the oil industry (OI) is key since, as seen in Part 1, it is the first to reach the thermodynamics limit of resource extraction and, since it conditions the viability of the GEI’s other components – in their present state and within the remaining timeframe, they can’t survive the OI’s eventual collapse. On the other hand, the GIW is impacted by thermodynamic decline with a lag, in the main because it is buffered by debt – so that by the time the impact of the thermodynamic collapse of the OI becomes undeniable it’s too late to do much about it.
At the micro level, debt can be “good” – e.g. a company borrows to expand and then reimburses its debt, etc… At the macro level, it can be, and has now become, lethal, as the global debt can no longer be reimbursed (I estimate the energy equivalent of current global debt, from states, businesses, and households to be in the order of some 10,700EJ, while current world energy use is in the order of 554EJ; it is no longer doable to “mind the gap”).
Crude oil prices are dropping to the floor
Figure 4 – The radar signal for an Oil Pearl Harbor
In brief, the GIW has been living on ever growing total debt since around the time net energy from oil per head peaked in the early 1970s. The 2007-08 crisis was a warning shot. Since 2012, we have entered the last stage of this sad saga – when the OI began to use more energy (one should talk in fact of exergy) within its own productions chains than what it delivers to the GIW. From this point onwards retrieving the present financial fiat system is no longer doable.
This 2012 point marked a radical shift in price drivers.[1] Figure 4 combines the analyses of TGH (The Hills Group) and mine. In late 2014 I saw the beginning of the oil price crash as a signal of a radar screen. Being well aware that EROIs for oil and gas combined had already passed below the minimum threshold of 10:1, I understood that this crash was different from previous ones: prices were on their way right down to the floor. I then realised whatTGH had anticipated last month, that their analysis was robust and was being corroborated by the market there and then.
Until 2012, the determining price driver was the total energy cost incurred by the OI. Until then the GIW could more or less happily sustain the translation of these costs into high oil prices, around or above $100/bbl. This is no longer the case. Since 2012, the determining oil price driver is what the GIW can afford to pay in order to still be able to generate residual GDP growth (on borrowed time) under the sway of a Red Queen that is running out of thermodynamic “breath”. I call the process we are in an “Oil Pearl Harbour”, taking place in a kind of eerie slow motion. This is no longer retrievable. Within roughly ten years the oil industry as we know it will have disintegrated. The GIW is presently defenceless in the face of this threat.
The Oil Fizzle Dragon-King
Figure 5 – The “Energy Hand”
To illustrate how the GEI works I often compare its energy flows to the five fingers of the one hand: all are necessary and all are linked (Figure 5). Under the Red Queen, the GEI is progressively loosing its “knuckles” one by one like a kind of unseen leprosy – unseen yet because of the debt “veil” that hides the progressive losses and more fundamentally because of what I refer to at the bottom of Figure 5, namely were are in what I call Oil Fizzle Dragon-King.
A Dragon-King (DK) is a statistical concept developed by Didier Sornette of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, and a few others to differentiate high probability and high impact processes and events from Black Swans, i.e. events that are of low probability and high impact. I call it the Oil Fizzle because what is triggering it is the very rapid fizzling out of net energy per barrel. It is a DK, i.e. a high probability, high impact unexpected process, purely because almost none of the decision-making elites is familiar with the thermodynamics of complex systems operating far from equilibrium; nor are they familiar with the actual social workings of the societies they live in. Researchers have been warning about the high likelihood of something like this at least since the works of the Meadows in the early 1970s.[2]
The Oil Fizzle DK is the result of the interaction between this net energy fizzling out, climate change, debt and the full spectrum of ecological and social issues that have been mounting since the early 1970s – as I noted on Figure 1, the Oil Fizzle DK is in the process of whipping up a “Perfect Storm” strong enough to bring the GIW to its knees. The Oil Pearl Harbour marks the Oil Fizzle DK getting into full swing.
To explain this further, with reference to Figure 5, oil represents some 33% of global primary energy use (BP data). Fossil fuels represented some 86% of total primary energy in 2014. However, coal, oil, and gas are not like three boxes neatly set side by side from which energy is supplied magically, as most economists would have it.
In the real world (i.e. outside the world economists live in), energy supply chains form networks, rather complex ones. For example, it takes electricity to produce many products derived from oil, coal, and gas, while electricity is generated substantially from coal and gas, and so on. More to the point, as noted earlier, because 94% of all transport is oil-based oil, stands at the root of the entire, complex, globalised set of energy networks. Coal mining, transport, processing, and use depend substantially on oil-derived transport fuels; ditto for gas.[3] The same applies to nuclear plants. So the thermodynamic collapse of the oil industry, that is now underway, is likely to be completed within some 10 years, is in the process of triggering a falling domino effect (aka an avalanche, or in systemic terms, a self-organising criticality, a SOC).
Presently, and for the foreseeable future do not have substitutes for oil derived transport fuels that can be deployed within the required time frame and that would be affordable to the GIW. In other words, the GIW is falling into a thermodynamic trap, right now. As B. W. Hill recently noted, “The world is now spending $2.3 trillion per year more to produce oil than what is received when it is sold. The world is now losing a great deal of money to maintain its dependence on oil.”
The Tooth Fairy Syndrome
To come back to David Bohm’s “question about the question”, in my view, we are in this situation fundamentally because of what I call the “Tooth Fairy Syndrome”, after a pointed remark by B.W. Hill in an Internet debate early last year: “It is interesting that not one analyst has yet come to the very obvious conclusion that it requires oil to produce oil. Perhaps they think it is delivered by the Tooth Fairy?” This remark vividly characterised for me the prevalence of a fair amount of magical thinking at the heart of decision-making within both the GEI and the GIW, aka economics as a perpetual motion machine fantasy. Unquestioned delusional beliefs lead to wrong conclusions.
This is not new. Here are a few words of explanation. In 1981, I met US anthropologist Laura Nader at the Australia New Zealand Association of the Advancement of Science (ANZAAS) Congress held that year at University of Queensland in Brisbane. We were both guest speakers at seminars focusing on Energy and Equity, and in particular on how societies actually deal with energy matters, energy crises and decide about courses of action. The title of her paper was “Energy and Equity, Magic, Science, and Religion Revisited”.
In recent years, Nader had become part of US bodies overseeing responses to the first and second oil shocks and the US nuclear energy industry (she was a member of the National Academy of Science’s Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, CONAES). As an anthropologist, she was initially taken aback by what she observed and proceeded to apply her anthropological skills to try and understand the weird “tribes” she had landed into. The title of her paper was a wink at Malinowski’s famous work on the Trobriands in 1925.
Malinowski had pointed out that: “There are no people, however primitive without religion or magic. Nor are there… any savage races [sic] lacking either in the scientific attitude or in science though this lack has been frequently attributed to them.”
Nader had observed that prevailing decision-making in the industrialised was world she was living in was also the outcome of a weird mix of “Magic, Science, and Religion” with magical and mythical, quasi religious, thinking predominating among people who were viewed and who viewed themselves as rational and making scientifically grounded decisions. At the time I was engaged in very similar research and had observed exactly the same kind of phenomena in my own Australasian fieldwork and reached similar conclusions.
In my observations, since the 1970s the prevalence of this syndrome has considerably worsened. This is what I seek to encapsulate as the Tooth Fairy Syndrome. With the Oil Peal harbour, the unquestioned sway of the Tooth Fairy is coming to an end. However, the imprint of Tooth Fairy thinking remains so strong that most discussions and analyses remain highly confused, even within scientific circles still taking economic notions for granted.
In the longer run, the end effect of the Oil Fizzle DK is likely to be an abrupt decline of GHG emissions. However, the danger I see is that meanwhile the GEI, and most notably the OI, is not going to just “curl up and die”. I think we are in a “die hard” situation. Since 2012, we are already seeing what I call a Big Mad Scramble (BMS) by a wide range of GEI actors that try to keep going while they still can, flying blind into the ground. The eventual outcome is hard to avoid with a GEI operating with only about 12% energy efficiency, i.e. some 88% wasteful current primary energy use. The GIW’s agony is likely to result in a big burst of GHG emissions while net energy fizzles out. The high danger is that the old quip will eventuate on a planetary scale: “the operation was successful but the patient died”… Hence my call for “enquiring into the appropriateness of the question” and for systemic thinking. We are in deep trouble. We can’t afford to get this wrong.
Next: Part 3 – Standing slightly past the edge of the cliff
Bio: Dr Louis Arnoux is a scientist, engineer, and entrepreneur committed to the development of sustainable ways of living and doing business. His profile is available on Google+ at: https://plus.google.com/u/0/115895160299982053493/about/p/pub
Cassandra’s legacy by Dr Louis Arnoux
82 Comments on "Some reflections on the Twilight of the Oil Age (Part II)"
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 7:12 am
“Before we published the report in 2013 we sent copies of it to over 50 people who we felt would be qualified critics. Being, mostly engineers ourselves, the majority of those recipients were professors of thermodynamics at engineering schools. Their response was unanimous! Everyone of them stated that they could not find a thing wrong with the theory, or its implementation.
Everyone of them also stated that the results of the study were so overwhelming that they did not want to take a public stand to defend it. We understood! If for some reason it turned out to be incorrect it would be a career destroyer. Even if it is not incorrect, its advocacy could easily result in the termination of even a tenured professor. The Etp Model is an incredibly dangerous study – no matter how one views it!”
Like an heir, who rapidly squanders the fortune that they inherit, a fortune that may have taken several life times to accumulate, humanity has consumed in 6 generations what took Mother Earth 200,000 human life times to create. As Dr. Arnoux has, so eloquently, and bravely presented, we are now being faced with the consequences of our wanton, myopic, self servicing behavior. If we continue to adhere to magical, religious modes of thinking, that God gave man the right to unlimited usage of all things on earth, we may soon find ourselves revisiting the life style of our ancestor Australopithecus at Olduvai Gorge.
We have alternatives, but none of them we will like! We will soon be asked, or forced to make hard brutal decisions. Our world view of Central Position must give way to the reality of the constraints that the Laws of Physics places upon us. We have very little time, and very few chances for success.
“We can’t afford to get this wrong.”
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 11:12 am
“Within roughly ten years the oil industry as we know it will have disintegrated.”
My guess is, much sooner than that!
What is impossible to model is human emotion, specifically PANIC.
Although the Powers That Be have done an outstanding job of managing public perceptions on a global scale (aka: lies, deceits, artificially induced stock market ramps, fairy tale stories, etc.), major cracks in the expertly crafted illusion of “all is well” are forming, and are becoming very difficult to patch.
Debt and lies have become the base upon which the global economy and modern high-tech civilization are precariously balanced. That base is crumbling, cracking up, disintegrating under the unsustainable weight of astronomical debt and layer upon layer of discordant propaganda.
Things are bad and getting worse with no end in sight because there is NO END to how bad this epic crash of human civilization can get. Many geographical locations are already hell on earth, with growing numbers of locations standing in line waiting to join them.
When propaganda fails and confidence breaks below a critical level and mass panic sets in, that is when the world as we once knew it will have officially ended. How much longer a sufficient level of “confidence” can be maintained on a global scale, via debt and lies and happy fairy tale stories, is the question of the century. The status quo is running of fumes and it really is just a matter of time, and that time could be ANY time, ANY day from now up until the time when it finally happens — confidence breaks on a large enough scale and sets off a wave of panic that ushers in a new age.
Today? Tomorrow? Next week? A year from now? Who knows? Could be any of those.
The unsustainable burden of excessive resource depletion coupled with rapidly expanding population is leading to a catastrophic moment in time.
We can’t afford to get this wrong?
Too late. We already got it wrong, wayyyy wrong. The global economy and the human civilization it supports is going down hard. At this point, it is just a matter of how long before impact.
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 11:24 am
short,
If you can’t talk about what you believe in who cares what those 50 think. You’re probably lying anyway. The way you cherry pick stats leaves you with the credibility of a politician.
You don’t talk about large efficiency gains at the well, or in transport, at the refinery or in transporation. All is relitive to demand. We’ll see whose right in 2.5 years.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 11:50 am
Efficiency gains at the well aren’t preventing hundreds of oil producers and service companies from going bankrupt, nor helping those countries that depend on oil export to support their populations from descending into chaos.
Efficiency gains in transport aren’t doing anything to mitigate the rapid and long term decline in freight movements, or to resurrect dying global trade.
Efficiency gains in refining aren’t doing anything to resolve the constantly increasing “oil glut”, with record amounts of floating and land-based storage continuing to mount, and now with record levels of refined product looking for buyers.
But hope, fantasy and cherry-picking facts got you this far. Stick with it, you’ll do just fine. See you in 2.5 years, maybe.
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 11:51 am
NR,
It sounds like Nigeria is working a deal with the rebels. Two opposing groups in Libya may merge and free up that oil. That potential is close to a million bpd added to the glut. Iran claims they double exports over the next few years. Kuwait plans to add over 1 mbpd by 2020 from their new fields. Exxon should be producing oil in Guyana around 2020. The Saudi claim they can add oil at will. Of course the US has added over 25 rigs at $45 oil. That makes 350 rigs still going. One more year my ass.
When is your personal propaganda gonna peak.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:01 pm
“sounds like”
“may merge”
“claims”
“plans”
“should be”
“claim”
Solid thinking and firm grasp of the facts are not the foundation of your beliefs, obviously.
Looks like you’ve swallowed the official propaganda, hook line and sinker. It isn’t anything to be ashamed of — almost everybody else is doing it too. That juicy bait of “all is well” is just too alluring to not gobble down, for most people. Totally understand where you’re coming from, Boat. Stay cool.
rockman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:09 pm
NR – “Within roughly ten years the oil industry as we know it will have disintegrated.” My guess is, much sooner than that!” Please define “disintegrated”. Without knowing exactly what you’re predicting we won’t be able to determine its correctness. Thanks in advance.
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:20 pm
NR,
When oil producers overproduce, the highest priced producers lose the most money. Do not cry for them. Those adding production don’t give a shyt about those losing production, why should you. All those efficiency gains create less pollution and cheaper prices. This is good. Are you a oil industry shrill?
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:34 pm
rockman — Louis Arnoux would of course be the best one to answer that question, since it was his quote. But strictly in layman’s terms, here is my answer:
disintegrated:
break up into small parts, typically as the result of impact or decay
weaken or break apart
to break or decompose into constituent elements, parts, or small particles
OK — I cheated. That’s the dictionary definition of disintegrated. But very relevant I think to where the global interconnected oil industry is heading.
Due to severe depletion dynamics, I (and many others) anticipate that the international oil conglomerates will break up along with the global economy and the unsustainable debt that currently holds it all together. At the end of the disintegration, I would expect any number of small, local and still energy-positive operations to be ongoing, but servicing only local populations in a world where the global economy itself has disintegrated into geographically constrained mini-economies.
That’s my best attempt at answering your question. How did I do?
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:35 pm
“If you can’t talk about what you believe in who cares what those 50 think. “
Your PTP bosses are holding out to the bitter end, aren’t they?
“10,700EJ, while current world energy use is in the order of 554EJ; it is no longer doable to“mind the gap”
You can’t pay a 10,700 EJ debt with 554EJ of input.
“Since 2012, we are already seeing what I call a Big Mad Scramble (BMS) by a wide range of GEI actors that try to keep going while they still can, flying blind into the ground.”
Either they are completely deluded by their own sense of power, or they are now completely insane. You’re on the wrong side of the Boat – Boat. This ship is headed for Davy Jones Locker. Maybe they think that they can save the world; more likely they have delusions of God Hood!
As a side note, Dr. Arnoux is absolutely brilliant! He received our report on January 12th. He absorbed it, cross checked it, and put this all together in six months. A truly amazing feat; it took the Russians two years.
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:42 pm
PS: It took 6 of us 10 years to put it together.
Apneaman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 12:58 pm
NWR, I think you are giving TPTB far too much credit for managing public perceptions on a global scale. It’s not all that hard to influence humans once you have the freely available playbook. Human behaviour is predictable which is why marketing and social engineering work so well (same playbook). As for the global scale propaganda, the reason why it has never been seen at this level before is because the technology is rather recent. It’s like a pipeline straight to their brains.
“Reach out reach out and touch someone reach out call up and just say boo!”
Private traits and attributes are predictable from digital records of human behavior
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/15/5802.full
The Milgram Experiment
“Conclusion:
Ordinary people are likely to follow orders given by an authority figure, even to the extent of killing an innocent human being. Obedience to authority is ingrained in us all from the way we are brought up.
People tend to obey orders from other people if they recognize their authority as morally right and / or legally based. This response to legitimate authority is learned in a variety of situations, for example in the family, school and workplace.”
http://www.simplypsychology.org/milgram.html
It takes no special intelligence to manipulate the humans on the individual or group level. Just need the method and means and a willingness to do it. The method has been refined ever more precisely since civilization began (state religion). It went scientific in the 19th century – psychology, evolutionary psychology human behaviour biologly, etc . Mass communication including Hollywood and public schools are the medium’s. The willing are those who care most about power and control and can justify their actions and motives or simply do not care. It has it’s limits of course, but look how long it works before the sheep rise up and say no more. Same shit, different century and now on a bigger scale due to technology. If the humans weren’t so predictable, then what’s the explanation for the same shit happening over and over and over?
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 1:03 pm
“At the end of the disintegration, I would expect any number of small, local and still energy-positive operations to be ongoing, but servicing only local populations in a world where the global economy itself has disintegrated into geographically constrained mini-economies “
That is the conclusion that we have also come to. I sent Dr. Arnoux an email on that topic yesterday. It is our hope that enough small regional operations can be maintained to preserve the most important aspects, and a lot of the accumulated knowledge of our civilization. If that happens the grind back up will be a long and arduous one. Of course, our nemesis could be war! If we can avoid a major one, and the serious impacts of GW hold off for another 20 to 30 years, we might make it.
A lot of IFs?
yoshua on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 1:23 pm
short – “it took the Russians two years”.
Did the Russians contact you in person ? Have they made some kind of public statement referring to a future oil crisis ?
You wrote a few days ago that the Chinese and the Saudi’s have read your paper as well. Did you send them a copy ? Did they respond ?
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 1:34 pm
Ap — I pretty much agree with what you’re saying, except I don’t think you give TPTB enough credit for manipulating public opinion, if I understand your post correctly.
I got my degree in Public Relations at a top-rated PR university. We studied how to manipulate public opinion, how to scientifically classify populations into well-defined groups and focus-group test communications that achieved the desired effect. For reasons you cover in your post, humans are extremely susceptible to expertly produced propaganda.
As we both know, if we trace the lines of media ownership through the corporations that own those media outlets and up through the various levels of holding corporations, we end up with a relative handful of financial entities that in fact control almost all major (and most minor) media outlets.
People looking for understanding of our world today should never forget what the father of modern propaganda said, which can be found along with other highly relevant quotes on this page:
https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/275170.Edward_L_Bernays
Specifically:
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 1:43 pm
Adding another perhaps provocative thought to my answer to Rockman’s question above:
I happen to be one of those who (speculatively) believe that elements within the military industrial complex along with high-level elites within finance and industry HAVE A PLAN to control and perpetuate sufficient oil production during after the coming global economic collapse. I believe that they will be successful, along with their chosen people, in surviving global and industrial collapse, and in continuing with a very scaled down but still energy-intensive mini-version of high tech civilization. I doubt that I will be one of the “chosen people”, but I suspect most or all U.S. Military, their families, engineers and scientists from all disciplines, oil industry workers, nuclear industry specialists and many others will be among those chosen. The rest of us, for a while at least, will be on our own.
Pure speculation…
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:10 pm
“Did the Russians contact you in person ?
We can usually tell how far they have gotten, and what their conclusions are by the questions that they ask after they have received the report. Some of these were sent electronically, some went on discs. The Saudi copy was hand delivered to ARAMACO by a Kuwaiti reserve engineer, whose brother (??) picked it up here in the US. The Russians received several copies that went directly to Russia, or through the Ukraine. The Ukraine site was a porno site that acted as a KGB front. The Chinese and Israeli were a little more up front. Their copies went to some government offices or URL.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:20 pm
I would tend to agree with you NWR. I would also speculate that population reduction has been spoken to at length.
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:42 pm
“I would tend to agree with you NWR. I would also speculate that population reduction has been spoken to at length.”
You are almost assuming that they don’t know what’s coming? They do. Its been published here on PO News for the last couple of years. When medications are no longer readily available a large percentage of the over 50’s population will die off quit rapidly. Population reduction will take care of itself. The young and strong survivors will be badly needed.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:43 pm
GregT — I would also speculate the same. When military strategic planners plan, those planning sessions normally include estimated casualties. They may need to get new calculators to handle such big numbers for what they’re planning this time, but I suspect that the it will otherwise be “business as usual”.
If I were to speculate a little more on this subject (which I’m going to do), I would also speculate that they have a big global and continental USA map in the planning control room, with green flags designating areas where the general population and its various industries and infrastructure will be aided and assisted in every way possible, while at the other end of the spectrum they have geographical areas with red flags indicating “those rats will sink or swim on their own”. And several levels in-between. If they aren’t getting down to that level of detailed planning, then they’re not doing it right. But my bet is that they are doing it right.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:50 pm
“The young and strong survivors will be badly needed.”
Exactly. No subjects = no king. They have to keep enough of us alive to maintain a viable defense/offense against future threats, and to maintain the infrastructure that maintains them in their lofty positions.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:56 pm
They have far more resources available to them, than a bunch of nobodies like us, that frequent an internet discussion forum NWR. You can bet that plans are already in effect, and I would also speculate that much of what we see playing out geopolitically ATM, is a part of that plan.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 2:56 pm
They have far more resources available to them, than a bunch of nobodies like us, that frequent an internet discussion forum NWR. You can bet that plans are already in effect, and I would also speculate that much of what we see playing out geopolitically ATM, is a part of that plan.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 3:02 pm
“No subjects = no king.”
Or in this case, Queen. For those who have been paying attention thus far, I’m sure that after Hillary’s coronation, the plan will quickly become increasingly clearer.
yoshua on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 3:06 pm
A secret world, every state is a front for a deep state. But the KGB state is still freaking weird.
I wonder what kind of deal the global powers have made between them selves. Sometimes it looks as if they cooperating with each others and then they just push someone under a bus. No one walks safe.
Apneaman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 4:10 pm
NWR, Greg, ever here of StormCloudsGathering? It’s a site run by this Anarcho-Capitalist dude – very bright guy. I don’t agree with every view point the guy has, but he makes decent arguments and provides lots of evidence for what plans and preparations the state has made for our dystopian future and examines big picture propaganda and regarding many recent events too. Makes cool spooky videos too.
Warning/prediction from 3 years ago looking to be closer to happening.
Economic Collapse & The Rise of Fascist & Racist Elements
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeSz3lT4mqs
The Psychology of Authority
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO3R5JcbffM
U.S. Government Preparing for Collapse (and Not in a Nice Way)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkAn3VIe1yQ
rockman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 4:35 pm
NR – Thanks…thorough answer: “…I (and many others) anticipate that the international oil conglomerates will break up along with the global economy and the unsustainable debt that currently holds it all together. At the end of the disintegration, I would expect any number of small, local and still energy-positive operations to be ongoing, but servicing only local populations in a world where the global economy itself has disintegrated into geographically constrained mini-economies.”
And this is what you truly believe will happen in 10 years…or less?
onlooker on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 4:50 pm
NWR, I think AP is precisely pointing out that controlling human perceptions and attitudes in not all that difficult and that TPTB have evolved their methods to very sophisticated levels. As for their planning to survive, this makes sense given their lofty positions, their wealth, their access to information and their ingrained need and desire to come out on top ie. have power and privilege. The hierarchical nature of our societies also point to the fact that those at the top will have more of a “cushion” to work with in positioning themselves for the Great fall.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 5:02 pm
onlooker — Good points. I agree.
rockman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 5:02 pm
NR – “I happen to be one of those who (speculatively) believe that elements within the military industrial complex along with high-level elites within finance and industry HAVE A PLAN to control and perpetuate sufficient oil production during after the coming global economic collapse.” What’s to speculate? That’s BAU that’s already in place. LOL.
But seriously: the govts (US, Russia, Norway, KSA, etc.) have such control already. For instance 500 million bbls of the oil in our SPR is designated for the use of the Dept of Defense. And a significant amount of current oil, NG and coal comes from leases owned by the Feds. In fact virtually all the oil/NG reserves on the planet already belong to the govts in those countries. Private ownership by US citizens is the rare exception.
Regardless whether there’s an official unofficial plan already in place wouldn’t you expect such developments to occur when push comes to shove? In the entire history of the planet when haven’t the powerful taken control during the hard times? Isn’t what you described exactly what the “most democratic govt” on the planet did in the US during WWII?
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 5:52 pm
Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is estimated to have grown by 1.4 million b/d in 2015. EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016 and by 1.5 million b/d in 2017.
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
2016 the world forecast was 1.2 mbpd growth. A couple of months later the forecast rose to 1.3. Now at the halfway point of the year the forecast rose to 1.4. My question to the doomers, should not demand go down and not up 200,000 p/d if the crash was imminent?
sunweb on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 5:55 pm
what a great interaction this time. Thanks everyone.
shortonoil on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 6:38 pm
“And this is what you truly believe will happen in 10 years…or less?”
The Model has an error margin of ±4.5 %,so it could possibly be up to 11.5 years. After that the Model is broken. It would be the first time that happened in 55 years.
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 6:44 pm
NR,
“sounds like”
“may merge”
“claims”
“plans”
“should be”
“claim”
Solid thinking and firm grasp of the facts are not the foundation of your beliefs, obviously.
Your wrong, the information I used is speculative but possible and should be considered. To blow it off as non fact before the events is the doomer way of thinking. I prefer to watch, track and report the shifting scenarios. This is what markets do. I am not pro or anti FF. I do enjoy trying to outguess the eia.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 6:49 pm
rockman — If I were to put forth my best guess, yes, that is how I expect things to work out in the next ten years or less, probably much less.
And yes, what’s to speculate? The powerful will definitely take control during hard times, and crushing a few bugs in the process isn’t something they worry about.
Not just 500 million bbls in the SPR, but all the land and floating storage in addition to that. If you were they guy in charge and you knew that the global economy was going to collapse very soon, then filling up every tanker and land based storage facility with oil for future use might not be a bad idea.
Maybe that’s why they keep the zombie economy jacked up on debt instead of just letting it die — just a few more tankers to load up and then okay, let ‘er rip!
Apneaman on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 7:12 pm
If I was one of the evil doers in charge, I would militarize US oil extraction and enslave expert extractors like rockman to suck that black gold up as a matter of “national security”. Every well would be like a mini high security FEMA camp. Three MRE’s a day and lights out at 9pm.
Boat on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 7:57 pm
The US government has 100,000’s of acres with oil and nat gas where drilling is not allowed. Most of the east and west coast as well. North America could survive. To date we would lose about 5 mbpd. A big adjustment butt not necessarily a collapse.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jul 2016 10:32 pm
“The US government has 100,000’s of acres with oil and nat gas where drilling is not allowed.”
The US government, by the people, for the people, is not in control here Boat. You live in an oligarchy, by the oligarchs, for the oligarchs. Losing 5 mbpd would equate to a collapse scenario for the vast majority of people, including you. The fact that you are still incapable of understanding economies of scale, your monetary system, and exponential growth, speaks volumes to your density. This stuff isn’t exactly rocket science Kevin.
yoshua on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 5:12 am
The American economy is (as I understand it) a commando economy (MIC) and a free market economy (Private) working together as two parallel economies.
When the private economy collapses the commando economy kicks in and takes over.
I war times all governments turn into commando economies under fascist rule.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 7:19 am
Boat, I think that it is pretty obvious that demand will keep increasing until the day it stops doing so. The same applies to supply, obviously!
The change will most likely happen from one day to the next. The signs that that day is getting near are all around us. If you don’t start preparing now, when that day comes you will regret it for the rest of your life!
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 7:25 am
Boat, Yes, North America will survive for a while longer than other places, but as someone who has been a survivalist for four decades I can guarantee you that people like you will not enjoy surviving. Only freaks like me enjoy that kind of stuff naturally or normal people like my wife who have 25 years of training and experience doing it and have acquired a taste for it through the years.
Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 8:34 am
greggiet,
“The fact that you are still incapable of understanding economies of scale, your monetary system, and exponential growth, speaks volumes to your density. This stuff isn’t exactly rocket science Kevin.”
We disagree of course. I believe humans have proven extreme adaptability over short periods of time. To spend much discussion on events that won’t happen for decades is why I usually avoid such speculative conversion.
Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 9:07 am
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 7:19 am
“Boat, I think that it is pretty obvious that demand will keep increasing until the day it stops doing so. The same applies to supply, obviously!”
If immigration didn’t happen most of the developed world would already be at peak energy or close to it. I think many don’t realize or give credit to the gains efficiency and tech have already made. Populations would be dropping if it were not for immigration. The growth we do have is what I call artificial and would disappear. No problem.
There is still plenty of waste in buildings and energy transportation. There is still plenty of waste in human transportation. Over the next 20 years we will continue to see energy intensity drop dramatically.
Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 10:58 am
The discussion of energy intensity isn’t discussed much. A leading cause of lower gdp growth is because of efficiency already in place. Look at your home, your car and appliances. At the end of every product cycle odds are that your new product will be more efficient and use less energy. Odds are you now use more efficient lighting, toilets using less water and your water heater heater is surrounded by insulation.
If every heated building was audited with a vacuum test to find air leaks and infrared testing to find heat/cool leaks the US could dramatcialy drop energy intensity farther. This is easily doable over a couple of decades. Governments should not allow btu’s to be wasted.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 11:16 am
Boat, Apparently you fail to understand that we all live in the same planet. While immigration may be somewhat relevant at the local level it is completely and absolutely irrelevant at the global one. The whole world is running out of resources and being polluted while the global population is increasing by around 80 million people every year and the planet’s climate is going berserk. Maybe you think that stopping immigration and building walls can protect you from that, but it won’t.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 11:21 am
Boat “A leading cause of lower gdp growth is because of efficiency already in place.”
Yes, I am sure that outsourcing most of the USA’s manufacturing was just a minor factor and the consequent deterioration of the middle class was almost insignificant. It is not the deteriorating quality of life of most Americans for the last decades, but the increasing efficiencies that led the way to our lower GDP growth. LOL!
rockman on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 12:40 pm
NR – In that case we should see the process begin in earnest in just a few years since such events won’t happen overnight.
Take control in hard times??? Do you not think they are already effectively in control? Consider the govt already has absolute authority over the movement of fossil fuels between states as well as all exports/imports.
Hell, the govt already has absolute control over how much of you paycheck you get to keep. LOL.
Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 12:47 pm
Boat,
While immigration may be somewhat relevant at the local level it is completely and absolutely irrelevant at the global one.
Globalization of trade will continue. Mass migration will end soon. Trump’s anti immigration popularity and Brexit are clear signs populations can change politics.
As water becomes more scarce and oceans shrink, countries with resources will naturally protect supplies. China took steps towards population control. Other countries will be forced to do the same.
Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 12:59 pm
“It is not the deteriorating quality of life of most Americans for the last decades.”
We will disagree. Lower wages come from immigration, to many workers for to few jobs. 40 million foreign born immigrants in the US.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 1:52 pm
rock — It is a very interesting subject for me, and I’m glad to have engaged someone with probably a lot more insight into how it will all go down in a conversation on this topic.
The big question for me, and to many others, is what will a post-collapse world look like.
The question of whether or not the global economy will collapse, and catastrophically, is to me a foregone conclusion.
I am focused more on the economic trends that are all leading to immanent collapse, realizing that over-depleted resources and especially oil depletion are playing a major role in the downward spiraling economic trends.
All those trends are pointing straight at economic collapse, and not in the far distant future. The economic crash of 2008 was not prevented, it was just postponed. Since then, all of the factors that lead to the collapse have only increased in magnitude, substantially. TPTB have with debt and financially trickery of all kinds managed to hold off the inevitable, but now we see rapidly diminishing returns on all those methods. The end is in sight.
There is a lot of controversy and discussion on just what form economic collapse on a global scale will take. Some subscribe to the long wind-down theory, ala Michael Green. I don’t discount that theory, in fact, from my point of view we have been on that wind-down since 1970, with constantly increasing debt and continuing resource depletion and all kinds of “steps down” since then. Those steps down are coming more rapidly these days, and they keep getting bigger and bigger.
My own personal opinion as I stated in my first post on this article is that we will reach a critical threshold — something big will break under the unsustainable burden of natural forces — and panic will ensue. We already see a lot of that panic in motion today with investors bailing out of the stock market and herding into sovereign bonds, driving the yields downward to historic lows. By the end of this year, there will be very few sovereign bonds (worth having) left to buy, leaving insurance companies and pension funds and many other entities with zero (or less) return on their “investments”. All hell is bound to break loose sooner or later.
So, given all that, getting back to the question we are discussing. What WILL the federal government do when we enter economic collapse and mass panic and pandemonium is unleashed worldwide?
You point out that the government already has absolute authority over movements of fossil fuels, and just about everything else. No argument there. And yet, that authority is derived only from the full confidence and “buy-in” of the thousands of independent companies, operators and key individuals who form the network by which the authority is supported and the oil industry is sustained. What happens when that authority breaks down along with the economy and folks start heading for the hills?
Nobody knows. But we can speculate and advance educated guesses. The idea is to attempt to foresee all the many possible scenarios in advance, before the storm hits. Kind of like sitting in a walled city, watching the barbarian hordes advance, trying to strategize and pre-plan escape routes. For all the good it does…
In a total economic collapse scenario, the federal government will lose significant authority and along with it, they will lose significant control. I am one hundred percent positive that they (TPTB) see that fact even more clearly that I do, and that they are making preparations. Some of their preparations are well known and “on record”. I suspect that most of their preparations are still being done in secret, behind the scenes.
But it is safe to assume, I think, that a big part of their “post collapse survival plan” is to maintain and control adequate energy supplies, which means oil and the infrastructure required to defend, transport and refine that oil into finished product.
That’s my theory. And I’m sticking with it!