Peak Oil is You
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Page added on February 16, 2016
Just A Distraction
In the end, does the choice of words really matter?
The “Yes, we’ve reached Peak Oil” versus the “No, we have not” is a distraction—and I’ve done my part to contribute.
But without recognizing and accepting the simple truth that we’re drawing down a finite and depleting resource which necessitates almost unimaginable adaptations and transitions to Plan B, the limits of human ingenuity and technological prowess will inevitably be reached if we keep tweaking the one finite resource mankind has relied upon more than any other.
And thus the heart of the matter.
The wells won’t run dry next week or next month. The sky is not falling. But the peak rate of conventional crude oil production was reached a decade ago. That’s an important fact glossed over by those disputing the message about our future oil supply. For all the Happy Talk courtesy of fossil fuel industry cheerleaders picking nits, that fact alone is an enormous problem.
The higher production totals of recent years are a genuinely impressive achievement, and should not be discounted. But shale production has shown itself to be what peak oil advocates said it would be: a costly, time-consuming, technology-intensive effort with a relatively limited shelf life.
Today’s low, low prices and declining demand owing to current economic conditions, when combined with a less than enthusiastic investment climate and the high debt levels carried by most oil producing companies, is squeezing that pipeline. The “glut” spoken of is a reflection of these factors much more so than a testament to how much oil industry can produce with just a snap of the fingers.
The diminished funding has resulted in severe reduction in exploration projects. They won’t start back up overnight if or when economic conditions improve. The intensity of effort required to extract oil from shale with its host of related and competing factors—rarely if ever pointed out by the cheerleading squad—is simply an indication of the reality of 21st Century oil production.
We’ve been tapping a wondrous supply of conventional crude oil for a generation-plus. Finite still bears the same definition it always has: it does not replenish itself, and basic math still rules. Drawing down that spectacular but finite supply, and attempting to replace what’s gone missing with an inferior, more expensive, inadequate alternative will lead us in time to exactly where proponents have suggested.
Over time, we are going to have less available as we and countless millions of fellow inhabitants of the planet seek more by relying on that very same supply. No matter what happy spin is employed, the math is not going to work. Transitioning to whatever Plan B will be is no easy task; certainly not one to be achieved in anything resembling “soon.”
The failure to start considering and planning for that monumental undertaking now while resources are still available in enough quantities to help us into that transition simply means “less.” Less time to plan. Less time to act. Less supply to utilize. Less opportunity for all of us going forward.
Fewer viable options for the many more seeking to emulate our lifestyles with the assorted fallout resulting from a diminished supply of fossil fuel is not a winning formula, and there will be hell to pay. But that won’t matter, either.
Confronting reality isn’t always pleasant, but choosing not to and enduring more substantial, adverse consequences as a result won’t be much of a picnic, either.
Choices….
61 Comments on "Just A Distraction"
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 7:33 pm
Just the first paragraph is awesome. That ‘yes we reached peak oil’, versus ‘no we did not’. Isn’t that like some passengers in a jetliner and the wings fell off. And all the while down they are debating. The doomers say ‘yes we have hit the ground and died’, but the cheerleaders say, ‘we did not die, it does not matter the wings fell off, for we did not hit the ground yet’. Isnt such a debate kind of missing the point?
makati1 on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 7:41 pm
Go Speed, distraction is the name of the game for the exceptional/indispensable country. It keeps the sheeple off of the streets and in front of their personal brainwashing machines. TPTB don’t want them to wake up and see how they have been enslaved.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 7:49 pm
…thanks Makita, and the biggest drag of all is I won one of the sheeple. I can’t fight my way out of the wet paper bag. I am stuck in the mess. Guess I will go start my car, get a Monsanto burger and fries, and buy some Chinese crap at Wal Mart on my way home. If there is a better way, don’t think I can get there. Like the Street Sweeper in movie Miracle Mile. He just kept sweeping streets even though the A bombs were coming down.
Nony on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 8:10 pm
Lost me at ‘peak oil’. We’re producing more than ever. Always will.
onlooker on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 8:45 pm
Yes great article pointing out how the world just keeps consuming this ultimately finite resource and how our entire way of living and infrastructure is based upon this one indispensable resource and thus its scarcity and or costliness will in itself cause tremendous problems. Oh and I like the fact that ” But the peak rate of conventional crude oil production was reached a decade ago”. This is the wake up call to humanity leave oil before it leave you.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 8:58 pm
Nony, tell us again how everyone’s better off because of side airbags and smart phones. That’s my favorite part of the story. Oh and don’t forget the 25 year student loan (instead of a home mortgage) so they can get that barista job so they can qualify for that subprime 7 year auto loan and payday loan to make it through the week. What a proud moment in time for econ 101 barrel counters like you. What a proud American you must be with the new standards and all. Nony, tell us how NIRP is perfectly sound economic policy. Totally normal just like 8 years of ZIRP was… because it’s a free market and all that and all that fracking debt will be repaid tomorrow and no one else will go bankrupt when they do the books in April (based on a much much lower price than last year). And you will spend all of eternity in econ 101 heaven with uncle milton and daddy danny yegrin. Always Always Always
Nony on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 9:12 pm
Ape-man:
Although, the remark above is temperate, I did not make it.
Hard for me to engage in discussion, when someone else is using my login. (I’m sure that was the intent. Well, some people prefer to have discussion only with those who they agree with.)
—
In terms of your discussion, I don’t think that it makes sense to widen the discussion always. There are things about modern life that are worse and genuine concerns about debt and culture that I probably share with those concerned about how things are trending. Yet, we need to have the analytical ability to disaggregate issues and consider them. IOW, don’t jump to B when discussing A. Don’t jump to the whole alphabet. Otherwise, you never really engage with the particular topic.
As far as the article, I got the general impression of a sort of emotive peak oil fatigue from the writer. What he seems to be saying is that analysis and facts are irrelevant. I don’t think about the world in such a manner. I do think facts matter.
onlooker on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 9:19 pm
Their is is AP, deniers deflect, ignore whatever just so they do not really have to engage the issues. Just so they do not have to concede that we civilization is like a snowball going downhill and gaining momentum every single friggin day. Yeah peak oil has not arrived don’t worry go back to sleep. Sweet dreams.
twocats on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 9:27 pm
If you had told me in 2005 (as production increases stalled) that humanity could last 10 years beyond peak without coming apart at the seams I would have said you were crazy.
1) the collapse of 2008-9 wiped a lot of demand off the map
2) the strength of the undulating plateau
3) the shale flim-flam…
4) …fueled by the CB-QE flim-flam which also made the economy “grow” and “decouple” from energy
You put all those together and there’s your ten, going on 11, years.
Let’s just see what these next ten years will look like. I’ve got a feeling, a hunch if you will, that it won’t be pretty and will include some stuff we ain’t seen yet. If you were to take Go Speed’s analogy, as we are falling towards the ground a cabin fire has broken out and some people are now burnt and burning to death.
Peak Nony on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 9:40 pm
Maybe PO.com has reached peak bullshit
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 9:59 pm
No matter what country you look at it is painfully obvious that industrial civilization is coming apart at the seams. Bad Shit that used to happen every once in awhile is now a daily occurrence. Industrial civilization is like a dying old man who suffers from a mini stroke everyday. Terminal brain aneurysm could hit at anytime. I been around for half a century and this civilization is a shell of it’s former self. You know nony filling the pot holes never used to be a major issue and we never feared bridges falling when we drove across them either. Take a deep breath and say goodbye asshole.
Mystery gas hits town in Irkutsk region as flowers die and people suffer toxic poisoning
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0585-mystery-gas-hits-town-in-irkutsk-region-as-flowers-die-and-people-suffer-toxic-poisoning/
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 10:08 pm
One of techno utopia’s most revered memes is now useless, so it’s goal post moving time to save face. Diminishing returns just like all of industrial civ. Only one way to go now.
Moore’s law really is dead this time
The chip industry is no longer going to treat Gordon Moore’s law as the target to aim for
“Moore’s law has died at the age of 51 after an extended illness.”
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/02/moores-law-really-is-dead-this-time/
We should have a new law for a new reality – Nony’s law – every 18 comments his bullshit doubles.
twocats on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 11:25 pm
I hate the moore’s law crap.
The technological improvements over the past few decades has been remarkable, impressive, and entertaining.
But the cost to the environment, to the masses of slave labor to produce it, to the emptiness of our social culture at this point, to the billions of chinese and indians just praying for a chance to indulge in the industrial and IT eras, and literally choking to death on the dream… and the rest, the abandoned swell of humanity, that can’t even come close to providing for themselves even basic necessities (electricity, running water, WWTP). Nony can say it’s bullshit all he wants, only a complete liar would deny that the dream of industrialization has faltered big-time.
Will it fail completely, imploding in on itself? Like Ap says, 30 years ago it looked like skies-were-the-limit, now it looks sickly and frail. That’s why the peak oil issue is so critical: all these advances have come at a cost, with the earth & oil footing most of the bill. Well, civilization keeps presenting a bill and it doesn’t look like anything is stepping in to pick up the tab.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Feb 2016 11:48 pm
twocats, yabut people (white coddled middle class Canadians) are always telling me how green tech is gonna save us. They know all about it until you start asking them for specifics, like what is the waste stream like.
The dystopian lake filled by the world’s tech lust
“Hidden in an unknown corner of Inner Mongolia is a toxic, nightmarish lake created by our thirst for smartphones, consumer gadgets and green tech”
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150402-the-worst-place-on-earth
NIMBY NIMBY NIMBY NIMBY – that’s all they give a fuck about.
Dubya on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:44 am
2cats, I’m expecting the invisible hand of the market to pick up the tab anytime now.
Davy on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 6:50 am
“IOW, don’t jump to B when discussing A. Don’t jump to the whole alphabet. Otherwise, you never really engage with the particular topic.” It depends on intent and the context. There are excellent detailed discussion of oil and its industry on this board. The above referenced comment rightly addresses these issues that should remain focused. There is more to our life than particulars though, especially when looking at our macro existential risks. Particulars and range analysis have to meet somewhere it is called the forest and the trees. We can get lost on either side of that discussion but we must address both as needed but also address where they overlap.
Peak oil is really much more than oil it is about a society with a foundational commodity it cannot transition from and cannot live without. This society is in overshoot even without this foundational commodity in depletion. We will likely collapse at an unknown minimum operation level of economic oil. This minimum operating level of oil we appear to be approaching is even more disturbing because it is more than oil it is an alphabet of problems that add up to a macro existential predicament.
This predicament is a macro “converging” of the approach of multiple “minimums” as in a range of vitals suffering Liebig’s law of the minimum. This range of resources and abstract networks of control are all interconnected and vital and currently all are under stress. I see nothing not under stress today because of systematic risk.
It is difficult to know which risk is more a danger hence the black swans and unknown contagion risks always a potential. It is about rational and irrational human nature in social arrangements stressing into dysfunction. Our trade and finance networks are just as vital as oil. Our geopolitical arrangements can immediately become deadly for all locals with a world war. It is about a global living arrangement with too many large cities that are unsustainable in a global decline and too many cities in geographic areas that are unsupportable with vital inputs from a complex dispersed global system declining.
IOW this is a systematic discussion more than oil and more than any particular discussion. Where we choose to focus is one thing but focused discussion must reference the systematic and global. A good comment feed is a mix of particulars and range discussions.
rockman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 7:06 am
Well done Racer. And Davy: “Peak oil is really much more than oil it is about a society with a foundational commodity it cannot transition from and cannot live without.” And much more then you point out. Which is why I coined the “POD”: it takes into account your points as well as all the other factors. And some still don’t like the POD because it covers so much more than some silly PO date on a calendar. Which is exactly why that “magical” date has little impact whether we’ve reached global PO already or will sometime in the future.
We can’t discuss the energy dynamics by picking and choosing single aspects of the POD and debating them in vacuum ad nauseum. That’s just a waste of time IMHO. Just the last 10 years should be enough proof that the date of GPO is not very relevant. As Speedy says: we’re going down, baby! LOL. The end result will be what it will be. But in the meantime, before we hit the ground, we have to deal with the time we have left as positively as possible. And that doesn’t including wasting time on date predictions.
ennui2 on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 8:57 am
“Maybe PO.com has reached peak bullshit”
That happened a long time ago.
shortonoil on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 9:35 am
“Maybe PO.com has reached peak bullshit”
Oil is $30/barrel; oil producers revenue has fallen by $2.3 trillion per year since June of 2014. Hundreds of producers are expected to go bankrupt this year, and lower oil prices have done nothing to stimulate the economy. Producers can no longer afford to replace the reserves that they are extracting; the petroleum industry has had at least $17 trillion in assets wiped out over the last year and a half. 70% of the sovereign wealth funds in the world are now paying negative interest rates, the world’s equity markets are all going down, and the bond markets are doing even worse. The wheels are falling off, and that is no “bullshit”! The world is now one panic away from wiping the store shelves bare!
twocats on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 9:38 am
“Maybe PO.com has reached peak bullshit”
That happened a long time ago [ennui]
You are correct ennui. po.com is really in full-on GLOAT mode. We’ve actually been doing victory laps for the last several months as we watch this POD wreak havoc on your precious little system. That’s why you’ve been reduced to factless quips, you hapless twit.
sunweb on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 9:41 am
but the kardashians, what are they doing.
marmico on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 10:05 am
PO is about discovery and lagged production models or monthly chart watching or mostly TEOTWAWKI copy and paste dog and pony shows.
There are upwards of 500 billion barrels of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Bakken. In time, U.S. producers are going to extract more than 2% (technology says upwards of an order of magnitude more) of the OOIP.
Neither depletion nor technology rests.
joe on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 10:56 am
All Americans are in the global 1%. Dont have a clue what energy really is or means. Its all figures and % and extractable quotas blah blah blah. Americans think that Peak Oil could be a disaster, no, the disaster comes later. Peak oil has begun, tight oil has forced conventional oil producers into a death spiral to use up the last of the cheap stuff. When we try to use tight oil mixed with renewables, thats when we will appricate what energy is. Like out great – grandparents did.
twocats on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 11:03 am
Hahaha! Classic, marmico talks about “dog and pony” and then posts an extremely elaborate technical paper that starts by referencing a 1974 paper. Meanwhile we post very simple data points showing how much the shale industry is struggling with low oil prices and that is somehow the flim-flam.
And yes, unfortunately looking at charts may hurt your brain, but “charts” are a very helpful way to look at “data” and come up with “conclusions” for what is “happening”. I know these things are difficult for you, but try to keep up with the big kids in the class.
And that all our articles are implying EOWAWKI, well, yes, that’s the whole point of peak oil, it’s not just about oil. deriding our positions doesn’t make them any less true. marmico, ennui, what’s that other jackass, nony. i notice boat has been more silent of late, I wonder if he’s been shifting his position slightly. Of the four he’s the only one that will occasionally admit that peak oil is real, he just disagrees on the timeline and severity of transition presented by the main posters. Even Plant, when not glut glutting, seems to admit that things aren’t looking that great. Keep posting marmico and ennui you’re almost winning!
marmico on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 11:40 am
2felines is an innumerate cast member in the now forgotten Barnum and Bailey dog and pony show circus.
World crude&condensate production through 2014. Add another 2 million barrels for 2015.
ghung on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 11:41 am
Maybe some of you haven’t figured out that marmico suffers from severe confirmation bias. He’s all in for the industrial age and has no plan B; can’t stomach the likelihood that his way of life will change dramatically in the not-too-distant future.
MSN Fanboy on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 11:46 am
The other posters should congratulate themselves if anything:
marmico: “neither depletion nor technology rests”
This is a massive breakthrough, marmico is admitting depletion exists.
If depletion exists that means 2nd law thermodynamics exists (ditto physics)
Which means marmico has begun to accept that the ‘doomers’ have a point, if partially.
I really must congratulate you, the chink in the Armour (read delusion) has cracked.
Congratulations Apeneman, GregT, Makati, Davy, etalllllllllllll
🙂
MSN Fanboy on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 11:47 am
AND YOU GHUNG.
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:21 pm
Yes thank you to all the realists for putting false delusions and their advocates under the bright light of inspection.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:29 pm
My god this would make an awesome ,day of manly hard work/accomplishment/camaraderie, beer commercial.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:39 pm
This DOOM’S For You.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:58 pm
Woodside profit plunges 99 per cent on oil price slump
“The savage slump in oil prices has exacted a heavy toll on Woodside Petroleum, with its full-year net profit tumbling 99 per cent to just $US26 million ($36.6 million).”
The savage slump in oil prices has exacted a heavy toll on Woodside Petroleum, with its full-year net profit tumbling 99 per cent to just $US26 million ($36.6 million).
Buy the dip – dip.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 12:59 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-17/woodside-profit-plunges-99-per-cent-on-oil-prices/7175960
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:08 pm
The rockman and his fossil fuel overlords are here to make sure your kids and grandkids have as short nasty and brutish life as possible. There is zero fucking future (except for suffering and early death) for them. Don’t let their futures distract you – get out there and drill baby drill and shop out that credit.
US ‘likely culprit’ of global spike in methane emissions over last decade
Harvard study shows 30% rise across the country since 2002 with peaks coinciding with shale oil and gas boom, reports Climate Central
“The United States alone could be responsible for between 30-60% of the global growth in human-caused atmospheric methane emissions since 2002 because of a 30% spike in methane emissions across the country, the study says.
The research shows that emissions increased the most in the middle of the country, but the authors said there is too little data to identify specific sources. However, the increase occurred at the same time as America’s shale oil and gas boom, which has been associated with large amounts of methane leaking from oil and gas wells and pipelines nationwide.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/17/us-likely-culprit-of-global-spike-in-methane-emissions-over-last-decade
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:15 pm
Don’t let reality distract you from your long term (ba ha ha) plans.
Global warming in overdrive: We just had the hottest January ever recorded
http://mashable.com/2016/02/16/january-sets-record-for-the-warmest-month-ever-recorded/#4_O7XW.qqPqM
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:19 pm
Holy cow so we are sacrificing just a little more BAU at the expense of emitting even more deadly greenhouse gases like Methane. What would one expect at this stage of the cancer which is civilization.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:27 pm
The vicious cycles are popping up with ever greater frequency. The idea that a handful of oil and gas sweet spots is going to “save” the economy or country is a fucking pathetic joke.
Lead poisoning crisis sends Flint real-estate market tumbling
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lead-poisoning-crisis-sends-flint-real-estate-market-tumbling-2016-02-17?reflink=MW_GoogleNews&google_editors_picks=true
The real, real estate fun will be when Maimi beach and other eastern seaboard locals start their rush to the exits (5 years or less imo).
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:48 pm
Go Speed Racer:
“Isn’t that like some passengers in a jetliner and the wings fell off. And all the while down they are debating.”
But you guys were saying that ten years ago. A few of you were saying it 30 years ago. Wouldn’t the jetliner have hit the ground by now?
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:52 pm
Apneaman:
“Moore’s law really is dead this time… One of techno utopia’s most revered memes is now useless… Diminishing returns just like all of industrial civ… ”
So? What does Moore’s Law have to do with the collapse of civilization because of oil declines?
The end of Moore’s Law means that advancements in computer technology will happen more slowly, not that civilization is about to collapse.
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:54 pm
onlooker:
“Just so they do not have to concede that we civilization is like a snowball going downhill and gaining momentum every single friggin day.”
Isn’t that assuming your conclusion?
Also, you guys have been saying this for ten years now. If civilization has been going downhill and gaining momentum every single friggin day, why has the world economy grown rather than contracted in that time?
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 1:57 pm
twocats:
“Will it fail completely, imploding in on itself? Like Ap says, 30 years ago it looked like skies-were-the-limit, now it looks sickly and frail.”
What? 30 years ago, this very doomsday group was much larger and more prominent than it is now. Many of the doomsday classics (such as Catton’s Overshoot, Hall’s declining EROI stuff, etc) was actually written back then. Some of you guys have been prepping that long.
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 2:00 pm
ghung:
“Maybe some of you haven’t figured out that marmico suffers from severe confirmation bias.”
But Apneaman was using potholes in streets as evidence that civilization is about to collapse.
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 2:01 pm
onlooker:
“Yes thank you to all the realists for putting false delusions and their advocates under the bright light of inspection.”
But you guys have gotten everything wrong, year after year, for decades now. Where is the bright light of inspection? I don’t even see you guys asking why the predictions keep failing so badly.
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 2:11 pm
Typical denier bull Tom. Nobody really gave hard time lines it was about trend. Paul Ehrlich, Limits to Growth etc. all about trends. Well guess what we have been on this unsustainable path just as predicted. You deniers always like to say well the sky has not fallen so you doomers are wrong. NO. Contamination has continued to get worse especially in manufacturing countries like China. Global warming dynamics and properties have become even more ominous. Conventional oil peaked already. Degradation of all our ecosystems continue. Population continues upward trajectory. On and on. You think this savage wars going on the Middle East are just coincidence. No, they are a feeding frenzy trying to secure the last remnants of the conventional oil so needed by our world wide civilization. You know Tom you remind me of someone blind folded walking towards a precipice and just because you have not fallen you think everything is okay. I remind you in Africa, Middle East, South America, China and India everything is NOT okay. Even in US we are seeing ominous signs. I hope your waking up is not traumatic Tom I really do.
marmico on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 2:29 pm
The real, real estate fun will be when Maimi beach and other eastern seaboard locals start their rush to the exits (5 years or less imo).
Snake Plissken can team up with Mariner and rescue the Bilderberger planted drowning damsel operative in distress for delivery to the Rothschilds syndicate for debriefing. ROTFLMFAO
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 2:54 pm
Sssh! The Rothchilds might be hearing.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:09 pm
The Siege of Miami
“The city of Miami Beach floods on such a predictable basis that if, out of curiosity or sheer perversity, a person wants to she can plan a visit to coincide with an inundation.”
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami
nony-marmi king fuctard sock puppet – take a look at the pictures. They spell DOOM for the USA.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=miami+beach+flooding&iax=1&ia=images
How Flood Insurance Could Drive Americans From Coasts
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/flood-insurance-americans-on-coasts-18863
Will it be the insurance premiums or the water itself? Place your bets folks.
Jerry McManus on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:18 pm
I was going to say something about just how asinine it is to insist “the sky isn’t falling” despite overwhelming evidence that, yes, in fact, the entire planet is indeed crashing and burning as we speak…, but others have already done an admirable job of that.
So, I’m with sunweb, just what ARE those Kardashians up to anyway?
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:19 pm
onlooker:
“Typical denier bull Tom. Nobody really gave hard time lines it was about trend. Paul Ehrlich, Limits to Growth etc. all about trends. ”
Nobody gave hard time lines? Are you kidding? That’s just a drastic misrepresentation of the history of this group. You’re drastically revising the history of this group to remove its embarrassing failures of prediction.
Almost EVERYONE gave hard time lines. What about the “natural gas cliff”? The Simmons-Tierney bet which concluded in 2010? The “Olduvai Gorge” which showed the power grid failing by a certain date? All of Colin Campbell’s graphs and charts which had hard dates at the bottom? Gail The Actuary’s most recent forecasts which showed precipitous declines of ALL energy in 2015? All of those charts and graphs from The Oil Drum which showed precipitous declines in net energy, with dates at the bottom? Didn’t Deffeyes predict an exact DAY when oil declines would commence (I think Thanksgiving of 2005)? In fact, even ShortOnOil (who posted a comment above on this thread) has graphs showing hard dates in the nearish future when oil will reach an ERoEI of 1.
They all gave hard dates, and they were all wrong wrong wrong, all of them (except maybe short, because his predictions are so recent that his date hasn’t occurred yet. We’ll see).
“Contamination has continued to get worse in manufacturing countries like China. Global warming dynamics and properties have become even more ominous… Population continues upward trajectory… savage wars going on the Middle East… ”
So? You guys were claiming that industrial civilization would collapse circa 2005 or shortly thereafter, because of peak oil, peak gas and declining net energy. Were you really just predicting there would be pollution in China? Also, if civilization were collapsing because of no fossil fuels, wouldn’t industrial pollution in China have gone down?
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:28 pm
Okay I grant you some did do timelines Tom. They were wrong. Does that though negate the trends. I specifically said it was about trends. The trends are their to see if you look. But of course if you just want to look over your head and say “oh the sky is not falling” Everything is great. Yeah let us see what those Kardashians are up too.