Peak Oil is You
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Page added on February 16, 2016
Just A Distraction
In the end, does the choice of words really matter?
The “Yes, we’ve reached Peak Oil” versus the “No, we have not” is a distraction—and I’ve done my part to contribute.
But without recognizing and accepting the simple truth that we’re drawing down a finite and depleting resource which necessitates almost unimaginable adaptations and transitions to Plan B, the limits of human ingenuity and technological prowess will inevitably be reached if we keep tweaking the one finite resource mankind has relied upon more than any other.
And thus the heart of the matter.
The wells won’t run dry next week or next month. The sky is not falling. But the peak rate of conventional crude oil production was reached a decade ago. That’s an important fact glossed over by those disputing the message about our future oil supply. For all the Happy Talk courtesy of fossil fuel industry cheerleaders picking nits, that fact alone is an enormous problem.
The higher production totals of recent years are a genuinely impressive achievement, and should not be discounted. But shale production has shown itself to be what peak oil advocates said it would be: a costly, time-consuming, technology-intensive effort with a relatively limited shelf life.
Today’s low, low prices and declining demand owing to current economic conditions, when combined with a less than enthusiastic investment climate and the high debt levels carried by most oil producing companies, is squeezing that pipeline. The “glut” spoken of is a reflection of these factors much more so than a testament to how much oil industry can produce with just a snap of the fingers.
The diminished funding has resulted in severe reduction in exploration projects. They won’t start back up overnight if or when economic conditions improve. The intensity of effort required to extract oil from shale with its host of related and competing factors—rarely if ever pointed out by the cheerleading squad—is simply an indication of the reality of 21st Century oil production.
We’ve been tapping a wondrous supply of conventional crude oil for a generation-plus. Finite still bears the same definition it always has: it does not replenish itself, and basic math still rules. Drawing down that spectacular but finite supply, and attempting to replace what’s gone missing with an inferior, more expensive, inadequate alternative will lead us in time to exactly where proponents have suggested.
Over time, we are going to have less available as we and countless millions of fellow inhabitants of the planet seek more by relying on that very same supply. No matter what happy spin is employed, the math is not going to work. Transitioning to whatever Plan B will be is no easy task; certainly not one to be achieved in anything resembling “soon.”
The failure to start considering and planning for that monumental undertaking now while resources are still available in enough quantities to help us into that transition simply means “less.” Less time to plan. Less time to act. Less supply to utilize. Less opportunity for all of us going forward.
Fewer viable options for the many more seeking to emulate our lifestyles with the assorted fallout resulting from a diminished supply of fossil fuel is not a winning formula, and there will be hell to pay. But that won’t matter, either.
Confronting reality isn’t always pleasant, but choosing not to and enduring more substantial, adverse consequences as a result won’t be much of a picnic, either.
Choices….
61 Comments on "Just A Distraction"
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:28 pm
Tom S, fuck off with your lame assed attempt to group millions of observant folks with various opinions on collapse timelines together into one united group that agrees on every piece of minutia. Yeah, we all been meeting up every thursday at 7pm down at The Waffle House on 23rd st for the last 30 years for our weekly Doom timeline coordination meeting. Like the Borg we are singularly united in our message and dates. Sept 28th 2020 at 5:49 pm = Doomsday.
onlooker on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:29 pm
Love it AP. Just love it haha
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 3:33 pm
More pictures of what a dead/dying ecosystem looks like.
The Beetles: Eighty-Nine Million Acres of Abrupt Climate Change
“We were awash for 19 days in a tumultuous sea of mountains and forests, drifting a course through the heart of the US Rockies on a 6,000-mile journey of observation. Our film, What Have We Done, the North American Pine Beetle Pandemic, was released in 2009. It was the story of what is now 89 million acres of forest across the North American West that have been attacked by native insects. These insects had been driven to unprecedented numbers by warming that is twice or more the global average. Most of the trees in impacted forests were killed in the wake of the beetles.
It has been four years since the Climate Change Now Initiative’s last post-film observation in 2010. Our epic crossing was different on that final journey. The mountainsides of impacted forests were not predominantly bright red. Some were red. Some were brown. And ghost forest of gray needleless conifers at times spread to the horizon.”
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34853-the-beetles-eighty-nine-million-acres-of-abrupt-climate-change
GregT on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 4:55 pm
TomS wrote on October 12, 2015 at 10:31 PM;
“I predicted in 2007 that civilization was not collapsing, that the economy would adjust to higher oil prices without the “feedback effects” that supposedly would cause sudden collapse, and that global seaborne trade would remain roughly constant or increase. All three of those things were correct. I realize I wasn’t going too far out on a limb with those things, but peak oilers strongly disputed all of them.”
http://bountifulenergy.blogspot.ca/2015/06/there-are-many-alternatives-to-oil.html#comment-form
You’re full of shit Tom.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2016/Feb/Chart-1.png
Even the commenters on your own ‘blog’ continually call you out.
marmico on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 5:14 pm
The BDI is not the volume of trade, tiny brain GreggieTee. It is an index that measures the cost of shipping bulk commodities.
ghung on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 5:24 pm
TomS wrote; “ghung:
“Maybe some of you haven’t figured out that marmico suffers from severe confirmation bias.”
But Apneaman was using potholes in streets as evidence that civilization is about to collapse.”
Civilization as we know it IS collapsing; not ‘about to’. Any specie that is increasing its numbers while destroying its habitat is in the process of bringing on its collapse. Humans are doing both at unprecedented rates with no significant signs of stopping.. No point in arguing about the details. Increasing population => declining habitat => collapse.
Tom S on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 6:52 pm
Hi GregT,
You clicked on the wrong graph. The graph you linked shows the PRICE of ocean shipping, which has been declining. I had claimed that the VOLUME of ocean shipping would remain the same or increase. Here is the correct graph:
http://www.joc.com/sites/default/files/u1117861/Mario%20M%20CTF.PNG
That graph shows something very different from the collapse in ocean-going trade and the drastic “re-localization” which peak oilers had been predicting.
The only time that worldwide ocean shipping declined absolutely was during one year, in 2009, at the height of the great recession. However, it rebounded to new heights the next year.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 7:10 pm
TomS said
“But Apneaman was using potholes in streets as evidence that civilization is about to collapse.”
That’s right Tom, that was the sole piece of evidence I provided. One time a commenter called me an “encyclopedia of doom”. That’s because I actually provide evidence as opposed to spewing out streams of contrarian claims – no you don’t. Where is your evidence Tom? Downplaying and minimizing my evidence is not evidence – it’s an admission that you have none. Besides, functional roads are necessary for industrial civilization to exist along with the rest of the multi trillion dollar infrastructure. Hey I know Tom, we can just lay the new “solar roads” over top the old decrepit asphalt and concrete roads – Good as new 🙂 Now we just need a plan for the structurally deficient bridges, the ports, railroads, lead water pipes, etc, etc. You’re young Tom, but prior to your generation and mass privatization, some of us understood that maintenance paid for via tax dollars was required to maintain the system. How’s that neo liberal privatization working out for ya? Ask the people in Flint or a thousand other sacrifice towns. Still paying taxes just not getting the service like they used to and in some cases none at all or getting poisoned. Why it’s almost as if the infrastructure is collapsing – go figure.
makati1 on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 7:23 pm
Collapse/SHTF/Apocalypse, call it what you will, has no set date. It is in process now and has been for some years. If you are not in serious preparation or already prepped, you are blind to events. So be it.
GregT on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 9:03 pm
TomS,
Worries Rise Over Global Trade Slump
“A sharp drop in global trade growth this year is underscoring a disturbing legacy of the financial crisis: Exports and imports of goods are lagging far behind their pace of past expansions, threatening future productivity and living standards.”
“For the third year in a row, the rate of growth in global trade is set to trail the already sluggish expansion of the world economy, according to data from the World Trade Organization and projections from leading economists. Before the recent slump, the last time trade growth underperformed the rate of an economic expansion was 1985.”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/worries-rise-over-global-trade-slump-1442251590
1985? Strange how that coincides with the BDI. Your statement is correct however Tom, albeit misleading. The volume of shipping continues to grow, just the rate of that growth has stalled considerably, as has the rate of growth of the world’s economies.
Nothing to see here, move along. Everything is doing just fine.
JuanP on Wed, 17th Feb 2016 9:04 pm
Western civilization has been experiencing moral, political, artistic, cultural, social, and economic decline for decades. The rest of the world has been slowly, but surely, joining the game. The game is global now.
Does anyone here know of a country that is improving in any significant way? I have been looking for one to go live in all my life! The thing is, even if there was such a country, it would make no difference in the long run. In a collapsing world everyone is doomed!