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Page added on January 31, 2019
Global predictions for 2019
* Global predictions for the world economy are less optimistic than in 2018.
* Many countries also expect public unrest in the coming year.
* After a hot 2018, most expect global temperatures to continue to rise.
The latest Ipsos Global Advisor poll was carried out in 31 countries around the world at the end of 2018. The survey interviewed 21 000 adults online, and covered a range of topics on the economy, world affairs, technological advancements, and society and culture.
Since this survey is online, the South African views represented here are not of the population as a whole, but those with regular access to the Internet.
Reflecting back and looking ahead
* 2018: People are more likely to say that 2018 was a bad year for their country (62%) than it was for them and their family (46%). In a year with the controversial election of President Bolsonaro, Brazilians are among the most likely to say that 2018 was a bad year for their country (85%), narrowly behind neighbouring Argentina (86%), who were also most likely to say it had been a bad year for them and their family. More than four in five (83%) of online South Africans thought that 2018 was a bad year for our country, but with ever prevalent optimism, 86% say: “I am optimistic that 2019 will be a better year for me than it was in 2018.”
* 2019: Three in four (75%) are optimistic that 2019 will be better than last year, particularly across South America, where this sentiment was near unanimous in Peru (94%), Colombia (92%) and Mexico (90%), whereas only half in France (50%) were as positive, and even fewer in Japan (42%). In keeping with the previous point about a spark of optimism when it comes to the individuals, an overwhelming 91% of South Africans said: “I will make some personal resolutions to do some specific things for myself and others in 2019.” (This seen against the world average of 76%.)
World affairs
![[alttag]](http://pressoffice.mg.co.za/ipsos/images/2019/Ipsos_Global_Prediction_2.jpg)
* Economy: About 53% say the global economy will strengthen in 2019, with above average confidence coming from India (85%) and Peru (81%). Among the least optimistic are France (24%), Japan (28%) and Great Britain (30%).
Worldwide, 37% expect major stock markets around the world to crash in 2019, which has risen from around a quarter who expected a crash in 2018. All countries have grown more pessimistic about the economy since 2018. The biggest changes are noted in Great Britain (47% compared to 25% for last year) and Russia (47% compared with 26%), where expectations of a crash have nearly doubled. South African opinions are in line with the world average, with 35% thinking that a major stock market crash is likely this year.
* Global warming: Around the world, people predict that average global temperatures will increase this year, with nearly four in five (78%) thinking so. Malaysia (88%), Chile (88%) and Turkey (86%) are the most convinced. In a blistering hot South Africa, four in every five (82%) online South Africans think average global temperatures will increase in 2019, up from 76% in the previous study. Regarding this opinion, we are on a par with Colombia, China and France. Following President Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement last year, Americans remain the most sceptical about rising temperatures, with only 63% believing the temperature will rise.
* President Trump: Attitudes to President Trump’s future remain relatively unchanged since last year, with a third (32%) predicting his impending impeachment. As trade discussions between the United States and China intensify, the Chinese are now the most likely to think his removal from office is imminent (50%). Again, the online population of South African is close to the world average, with a third (33%) expecting impeachment; the Belgians share this opinion with us at the same level.
* Terrorist attacks: Western Europe is the most concerned about a terrorist attack this year, with nearly two in three (63%) in France thinking it is likely, followed by Great Britain (57%), Israel and Russia (both 52%). South American countries seem less concerned, as seen in Argentina (13%), Mexico (15%), Peru (15%), along with Serbia (13%). Online South Africans are also not very concerned about the terrorism issue when compared to other countries, and only a quarter (26%) believe the possibility of a major terrorist attack is high.
Technology
* Personal data: Half the global population (50%) think their personal data will be leaked on the Internet this year, but only around a quarter say they will be using social media less (28%). Countries most wary of their data being leaked include Turkey (69%), South Korea (68%) and China (65%), while this drops to nearer three in 10 in Serbia (29%) and Germany (31%). Forty-five percent of online South Africans think the possibility is high that their personal data will be leaked, but a fairly comfortable majority (60%) say that is it unlikely that they will use social media channels less.
* Artificial intelligence: Two in five (38%) on average predict that doctors in their country will use artificial intelligence to decide on treatment for their patients in 2019. This is seen as more likely across Asia, particularly in China (60%), Malaysia (58%) and India (57%), whereas Eastern Europe seems more hesitant, as seen in Russia (21%), Hungary (23%), Czech Republic (25%) and Serbia (25%). In South Africa, online opinions are divided on this issue, with 39% saying it is likely and 49% saying it is unlikely that doctors will use artificial intelligence for this purpose.
* Entertainment: Eight in 10 on average (80%) think it’s likely that people around the world will spend more time online than watching TV in 2019. In South Africa, the opportunity for growth in connectivity of the general population is high, and 84% of online South Africans expect to spend more time online than watching television, the same proportion as in the Czech Republic and Poland.
Society and culture
* Protests and riots: Over half (56%) expect large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) in their countries. For South Africa, the possibility of public unrest look high in this election year as three-quarters (74%) say it is definitely likely for protests to happen. In France, President Macron’s problems do not appear to be ending this year, with four in five (83%) in France predicting more unrest.
* Gender equality: Only two in five (42%) think women will be paid the same as men for the same work, but women are much less optimistic than men (36% and 48% respectively). Just over half (52%) of online South Africans are optimistic regarding gender parity, but 43% believe it is unlikely to happen soon.
* Social cohesion: People do not expect social divisions to heal very much in 2019, as just a quarter (26% on average) think people in their country will become more tolerant of each other. South Africans are not optimistic about this issue either, and only 30% of those online think that some form of social cohesion is likely, while two-thirds (65%) say it is unlikely to happen soon. In Europe, at least eight in 10 think it unlikely that tolerance will increase in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands and France.
Breakthroughs
* Nearly two in five (38%) think it likely that a cure for the common cold will be discovered this year.
Online South Africans are aligned with the global opinion at 38%, not to mention that a Nobel prize will definitely be in the offing for such a breakthrough.
* Ghosts and aliens: While no nations were very convinced that any will happen, still over one in 10 globally think there is a likely chance of discovering the existence of ghosts (16%) and time travel (15%), or Earth being visited by aliens (13%). In the old tradition of telling ghost stories around a campfire, one in five (22%) South Africans says the existence of ghosts is likely to be discovered, almost the same proportion (21%) say time travel is likely, and 11% believe aliens will visit the earth. This last opinion places us right between Hungary and Germany.
Technical notes:
* These are the findings of the Global Advisor Wave predictions survey for 2019. In total 21 141 interviews were conducted between 21 December and 9 January among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries.
* The survey was conducted in 31 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.
* For the results of the survey presented herein, an international sample of 21 141 adults aged 18-64 in the US, Israel and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries, were interviewed. Approximately 1 000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel, with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey, where each have a sample approximately 500+.
* Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data, and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points for a sample of 1 000 and an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20 per country of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in that country had been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
* Eighteen of the 31 countries surveyed online generate nationally representative samples in their countries (Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and United States).
* Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, Turkey, Chile, Colombia and Malaysia produce a national sample that is more urban and educated, and with higher incomes than their fellow citizens. We refer to these respondents as “upper deck consumer citizens”. They are not nationally representative of their country.
* Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don’t knows or not stated responses.
* Data is weighted to match the profile of the population.
105 Comments on "Global predictions for 2019"
Mitch on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 2:12 pm
“who gives a rat’s ass”
Everyone else here except for you Davy.
JuanP sock puppet on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 2:27 pm
Mitch on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 2:12 pm
Mitch on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 3:20 pm
Do you have an intellectual disability Davy?
Davy on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 3:44 pm
Mitch, Juan does and he needs immediate help.
Anonymouse on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 3:57 pm
Ironic for the exceptionaltard to tell Juan to go ‘pull some weeds’. This is coming from a dumbass whose .9 acre ‘doomstead’ or w/e the hell it is, consists of nothing BUT weeds.
You should consider taking your own advice dumbass.
In case you are having trouble reading between the lines……..
Go away delusionalist, nobody wants you here. Except maybe for cloggenkike, but he is just as bad as you, worse in many respects.
BOT alert on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 4:18 pm
Anonymouse on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 3:57 pm
JuanP on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 4:41 pm
The comment above by Davy is reflective of his kindergarden bully’s mind.
JuanP on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 4:44 pm
Davy “Mitch, Juan does and he needs immediate help.”
You are projecting again, Davy. You are the one in desperate need of immediate help, yet you refuse to get. Do it for your children before it is too late!
Antius on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 4:57 pm
“Well if Antius is so charmed by the ancient architecture of the low countries, he might like Dutch neo-classicism, ten km east of where I live: Brandevoort. The majority votes populist.”
Impressive. If things like this can be built at an affordable cost, why pollute the urban landscape with 3D printed, concrete tack?
After ww2, something horrendous happened to architecture in European countries. The ornate brickwork of yesteryear gave way to drab concrete monstrosities. They were built for low cost, as if aesthetics did not matter. I would hope that a new nationalist Europe would take greater pride in it’s architectural heritage.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 5:36 pm
Davy and MOB are perfect examples of why the US is sinking. They give us examples of their bullshit, ignorance, immaturity and arrogance daily. Cloggie, and a few others, are techie dreamers, and a few of us are realists who are preparing for the inevitable, and fast approaching, end to BAU.
There are at least 7,500,000,000 different opinions of the world today. The more you read from different sources, the better picture you can form of what the real world is like and where we are going. Some refuse to see reality because it means the end of their lifestyle. Others because it is not the future they want. Me, I see it clearly so I can prepare, as much as possible, to ease the slide into extinction. I hope to have another 15 to 20 years to watch the show. New experiences keep you alive. One of the reasons I moved to the Philippines. Which category do you fit into?
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 5:46 pm
Its going to be tyranny governments..
Forced manual labor for some ration food..
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 5:56 pm
Perfect example of my comment on MOB above. LOL
Davy on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:00 pm
makato, I am fine. You are the whiner who is suffering subconscious remorse. It is pretty easy to see the reason you are so rabidly anti-American is you question your big move. A normal personal would get over it.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:03 pm
Davy
Mak can’t get over his ex wife dumping him..And now he can’t go back because his family thinks he is crazy..
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:33 pm
We are setting ourselves up for a classic Malthusian trap!
https://i.imgur.com/54l09rC.gif
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:38 pm
The beginning of US’ disasters for 2019. Cold, heat, drought, floods, fires, hurricanes, and on and on.
“Two-thirds of the population in the continental United States, 212 million people, are expected to experience freezing temperatures before the end of the week. Approximately 83 million people, one-quarter of the US population, will experience temperatures well below zero degrees Fahrenheit, as the weather pattern known as the polar vortex makes its way east.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/six-dead-as-record-breaking-arctic-air-mass-hits-us-midwest/5667131
Will it hit $1,000,000,000,000.00 this year stay tuned!
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:41 pm
Signs of the imminent collapse of the US:
“In the last decade or so, the reputation of the U.S. dollar has been widely discredited because it is viewed by many governments around the world as a risky asset since the U.S. economy holds more than $21 trillion in debt and if you add the unfunded liabilities in the form of promises to ensure payments to retirees associated with government pensions, entitlement programs and social security amounts to more than $200 trillion. The dollar is a fiat currency based on “faith” which is issued by the Treasury department and backed by the full weight of U.S. government, but countries who are routinely threatened by Washington with economic sanctions have lost faith in the dollar. The dollar is a debt instrument issued to the public with no real objective measure of the dollar’s true value. Since the Federal Reserve Bank was founded in 1913, the dollar has lost over 97% of its value.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-world-without-dollars-are-we-approaching-the-end-of-americas-financial-order/5667143
“World War III will be based on maintaining the power of the U.S. dollar. The interests of major corporations, the establishment from Washington and London, the banks and an interesting tribe whose seeds were planted in the Middle East back in 1948 are based on the dollar’s strength.
The dollar is the backbone, the tool that allows Washington to continue its geopolitical dominance backed with its military power over the world’s economy and its natural resources. The dollar allows Washington to intimidate sovereign countries with economic sanctions as a way to influence or directly control their politics and economy in Washington’s favor, nothing more and certainly, nothing less, and that’s a major reason the acceleration of dumping the U.S. dollar around the world will lead us into a major world war that may start with a country that has plenty of oil which two come to mind, and that is Venezuela and Iran.”
Suggestion: Don’t hold dollars and get out of Dodge asap.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 6:49 pm
If you think Trump doesn’t have a chance in 2020…
“On Sunday, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announced that he is “seriously considering running for president as a centrist independent”.”
“http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-one-thing-that-could-almost-guarantee-a-trump-victory-in-2020-is-on-the-verge-of-happening
The game is heating up. Pass the popcorn. LOL
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:07 pm
Amerika, the land of the free…
“I remember when a suspect was regarded as innocent until proven guilty in a fair trial. Today prosecutors convict their victims in the media in order to make an unbiased jury impossible and thereby coerce a plea bargain that saves the prosecutor from having to prove his case. In the United States law is no longer a shield of the people. Law is a weapon in the hands of prosecutors.” – Paul Craig Roberts
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2019/02/01/a-lawless-government/#more-191110
I remember when there was something called the Miranda Rights and due process. Gone now. You can be shot onsite by any cop who feels “threatened”, even if you are a teen or retarded, and the cop will probably get promoted. Amerika, the police state Stalin could only dream of.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:21 pm
It’s happening
https://i.redd.it/shm38q1lq0e21.jpg
The young socialist uprising!
Anonymouse on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:35 pm
Its good to have a ‘friend’ that actually agrees with you, isnt it DavyMOB. I mean, you and ‘him’ seem to be of the same ‘mind’, ahem, on pretty much everything. It almost as if, you are and ‘him’ were the same person……
Maybe you will entertain us later by having one of your ‘Mob’ vs ‘Davyturd’ arguments you like to stage periodically over some stupid and inconsequential bit of diarrhea one of you craps out.
Or alternately, the ‘both’ of you could go find something useful to do, like your laughable ‘documentation’ project for example. You know, the one no one gives two squirts about. That would keep the b’oth’ of you off-line for a while, and this place would experience a brief interlude of normalcy, for a change.
Davy on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:43 pm
“Anonymouse on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:35 pm”
anon, you really are a loser. You don’t make any on topic comments here. This is just your place to come in and hate on some Americans. You really are a loathing piece of shit. You have zero real education and weirdo ideas. No wonder Canada is going down the shitter. Look at its younger generation
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 8:09 pm
Global civilization is going to collapse the same way the Mayan’s did..From a great Malthusian trap..Once the oil starts to run out..It will cause shortages of everything including food..Then the world will either go into a major world war or it will be regional civil wars, to fight for whats left..and this will be the cause of our collapse..
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 8:24 pm
MOB…and how long is this “running out” going to take? Five years? ten? Twenty? More?
It is not oil that is going to take down the US economy but debt and loss of financial dominance. The rest of the world is on to the new weapon of choice by the US… the dollar. They are moving away from it faster and faster every day.
Soon it will be just another part of world trade and not important. When that day comes, the US is over and will be fully 3rd world. The US has nothing but debt and snowflakes.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
YOU owe ~$1,000,000.00 today and more tomorrow. Good luck with that! I owe Zero. I do not pay taxes, but I do enjoy the other side. Getting back what I paid. It goes a lot farther here. lol
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 9:33 pm
Mak
China’s has nearly triple the amount of Debt to GDP the US has..And they don’t have the worlds reserve currency..
Debt, Not Trade War, Is China’s Biggest Problem
the Institute of International Finance (IIF) last week, which place China’s debt to GDP at 300%!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/11/24/debt-not-trade-war-is-chinas-biggest-problem/#2809abd54c4d
JuanP on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 9:44 pm
Davy “You really are a loathing piece of shit.”
You are projecting again, Davy! LOL!
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 10:23 pm
MOB, and Forbes is impartial? LOL! Do you personally know that he numbers are correct? How about this:
US DEBT to GDP 2018. = 105% China 2018 = 47%
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp
National Debt per citizen: China = $3,800 US = $66,900
https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china
“In the last decade or so, the reputation of the U.S. dollar has been widely discredited because it is viewed by many governments around the world as a risky asset since the U.S. economy holds more than $21 trillion in debt and if you add the unfunded liabilities in the form of promises to ensure payments to retirees associated with government pensions, entitlement programs and social security amounts to more than $200 TRILLION.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-world-without-dollars-are-we-approaching-the-end-of-americas-financial-order/5667143
“World War III will be based on maintaining the power of the U.S. dollar. …the acceleration of dumping the U.S. dollar around the world will lead us into a major world war that may start with a country that has plenty of oil which two come to mind, and that is Venezuela and Iran.”
I’ll be watching the coming events as the US suicides. I’m glad I am not there.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 10:33 pm
BTW:
China’s debt in USDs = $5.25 Trillion
China’s GDP in US dollars = ~$14 Trillion
https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iMPBm_Kb1pWo/v1/-1x-1.png
I’ll take China’s situation over the US’ anyday.
print baby print on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 12:26 am
https://news.yahoo.com/tesla-drivers-getting-screwed-polar-180118982.html
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 2:18 am
Mak
You are an idiot and your numbers for China aren’t true..And its not forbes who is calculating China’s debt its the IIF.
The Chinese “economic miracle” is built on a mountain of debt. As Chinese GDP grew over 12-fold in 20 years to $12.24 trillion at the end of 2017, credit in the Chinese financial system grew over 40-fold, taking the debt-to-GDP ratio from 100% to 400%, if one counts the shadow banking system. Shadow banking credit aggregates are omitted from official statistics, but they add at a minimum 100% to the total debt to GDP ratio for China (see this Brookings Institution paper).
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-coming-recession-has-pushed-oil-below-60-2018-11-13?link=sfmw_fb
China central bank chief warns of ‘Minsky moment’
https://www.ft.com/content/4bcb14c8-b4d2-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 2:57 am
Mak
Maybe if you went to college and were educated you wouldn’t make such gigantic blunders about china debt..You prove your ignorance every day..
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 3:07 am
MOB, I am no longer debating with a 12 year old mentality. If you miss the reference, it is you.
makati1 on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 3:23 am
“The reality is that the majority of those in the ruling class are mind-numbed eternal adolescents hell-bent on pushing the boundaries of ethical and moral behavior and viewing all political and policy issues as a war between their side and their mortal enemies (those who oppose the transformation of the nation into a socialist oligarchy, the concomitant erosion of liberty as well as unrestrained personal behavior).”(US)
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/01/the_ruling_class_and_an_undeclared_civil_war.html
“There was an “overwhelming odor of ammonia and feces,” and large spider webs were along the ceilings and door frames. Food and dirt was all over the floor in the living room and dining room. A mop bucket filled with dirty water and food pieces was in the dining room, the report said…The dining room had a large amount of trash in the corner and underneath a table to make food. The refrigerator was unsanitary with food, dirt and stains all over the inside and outside. Numerous insects were flying around the house.
…The condition of her children was even worse. They were filthy dirty and their teeth “were black and gray” from a lack of care.
Crites and her children shared a bedroom, where there was a large pile of clothes in the corner, dirt on the floor and several red cups on a shelf containing an unknown black liquid and cigarette butts, the report said…In her bathroom, there were several piles of animal feces on the floor and in the bathtub, and some smeared on the floor, the report said.”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/advanced-social-decay-you-will-cringe-when-you-read-what-has-been-going-on-behind-closed-doors-all-across-america
AMERIKA TODAY! THIRD WORLD OLIGARCHY! OR WORSE? EMIGRATE NOW!
Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 3:53 am
“The Chinese “economic miracle” is built on a mountain of debt.”
SO.WHAT?
The Chinese miracle is a miracle nevertheless. The financial construct (house of cards?) underneath it may collapse, or at some point “reset” rather, the reality is that the Chinese worked their *sses off and achieved fantastic results.
The “Anglo-Zionist” belief (as in over-estimation) in finance is breathtaking.
America was in a depression throughout 1929-1940, yet emerged victorious as the new geopolitical top-dog in 1945.
Germany was in an even worse depression during the Weimar Republic, but in 1942 had overrun much of Europe, stretching from Norway to the French coast to the gates of Moscow and the Caucasus.
Finance is a secondary geopolitical category. Far more important geopolitical categories are energy sources and racial coherence.
A financial collapse is mostly bad news for pensioners but little else. You have a difficult decade, people have to work until death, but that’s about it.
Russia went through a financial collapse in 1998. 20 years later they have beaten the US in Syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis
Another example, historic Dutch public debt:
http://biflatie.nl/wp-content/uploads/nedstaatsschuld.png
In 1945 a staggering 240% GDP. Ten very difficult years later the economy began to blossom again and in 1960 everything was honkey-dory, until today.
A financial collapse is an opportunity for smart leadership to push through changes that are impossible to implement without it.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 5:33 am
“The Chinese “economic miracle” is built on a mountain of debt.” SO.WHAT? The Chinese miracle is a miracle nevertheless. The financial construct (house of cards?) underneath it may collapse, or at some point “reset” rather, the reality is that the Chinese worked their *sses off and achieved fantastic results.”
Its not a miracle, clogged, it is major mal-investment and unrealized bad debt. The consequences are just now coming due. There has been amazing growth but this growth has also set the planetary system on a doom trajectory. Pollution and destruction of the resilient social fabric that was China is now about hyper growth into mega cities and western style consumption. China has taken over the reins as the leader of the planet killers from the US and Europe.
Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 5:47 am
Yellow Vests live:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxYM15CvW4c
A white insurrection, that doesn’t wants to be called a white insurrection.
Yet.
AfD-leader Gauland discusses Yellow Vests in German parliament (English subs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmmjqphCjpU
He is currently my favorite German politician. Here is why:
German globalist media:
https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/afxline/topthemen/hintergruende/article174715700/Fuer-Gauland-und-Le-Pen-ist-Putin-ein-Partner.html
Welt=world.
“Für Gauland und Le Pen ist Putin ein Partner”
(For Gauland and Le Pen is Putin a partner).
Die Welt rejects that, but…
Die Welt is yesterday’s news. Globalism is being rejected by ever larger numbers, who want a compartmentalized world
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 5:55 am
“Yellow Vests live: A white insurrection, that doesn’t wants to be called a white insurrection. Yet.”
More like a CW2 that is seeking to end the EU as we know it.
“Die Welt is yesterday’s news. Globalism is being rejected by ever larger numbers, who want a compartmentalized world”
Sure clogged, but the populism is on many sides and with many colors. Socialist are pushing issues too IOW the rejection is coming from a grass roots of disenfranchised across the board white and color. You try so hard to make this racial but it is only partly racial and then only in select locations. It is also economic and class related. The ruling class is facing revolt on every front while and because of a declining global economy. That is the real story
Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 6:35 am
Populism = white.
The socialists are in retreat everywhere in Europe, as they are being sucked dry by populist parties, the new home for the small guys (“deplorables”), where the socialists drifted away from the small white guy to the coloreds (unending electoral reservoir).
Politics ranking in the Netherlands today:
https://home.noties.nl/peil/
1. VVD – liberal-globalist
2. PVV – populist
3. Greens – globalist
4. FvD – high-end populist
It is a battle between globalism and populism. The populists have Russia, Eastern Europe, Italy and Austria and are rising everywhere else, hand in hand with shifting demographics.
Again the example of Calais, city of 50,000. The presence of the so-called Jungle Camp of 6,000 sufficed for a 50% for the Front National.
The stunt that the globalists pulled off in America won’t succeed in Europe.
Here is the proof, straight from the horses mouth:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 6:59 am
“MMT: The Court Astrologer’s Dream”
https://tinyurl.com/ybp43o3r
“More fundamentally still, the simple fact is that the whole of economic science must be founded on a real-world concept of the scarcity and finiteness of means. This is a requirement which utterly escapes the MMT wizards who instead seem to think that their special insights allow them, along with Shakespeare’s blowhard Glendower, to ‘summon spirits’ – and boundless economic means along with them – ‘from the vasty deep’. The idea that, regardless of the magnitude of government spending, you, I, and our next-door neighbour can happily provide its clamorous army of functionaries, contractors, and welfare recipients with as many real resources as they need is clearly a nonsense of the first order. Ask anyone whose grandparents were unfortunate enough to have to ‘fund’ the latest Five-Year Plan by queueing for hours outside the state dispensary in the chill of a Russian winter, all in the hope of securing the last head of mouldy cabbage for their cheerless, meagre supper.”
“The largely unpredictable topographical changes which are brought about by this scouring of the economic landscape by the floodwaters of state spending and monetized credit creation are known to those of us with a slightly wider exposure to economic history as ‘Cantillon effects”
“Government, after all, is not some Olympian deification of dispassionate justice (even justice of the oxymoronic ‘social’ kind) but is a creature which suffers from all the faults we associate with an absence of real ownership (i.e., from its lack of ‘skin in the game’, as the current vogue has it). It is also generally exempt from formal accounting and budgetary strictures or from much in the way of temporal limitation – never being subject to the relentless, if decidedly necessary, test of validity constituted for the private sector by the annual profit & loss account. Moreover, it is an institution within which men and women, fallible like you and me, are free to pursue their own, often highly venal, agendas and to do so – unlike those of us in private society who are often so harshly criticised for committing the very same sins – by proxy and therefore in a manner highly insulated from the costs of practising their prejudices or of giving rein to their wilder, Utopian enthusiasms – a remoteness which can only encourage such gross violations of the public trust.”
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:00 am
The socialist and those who think the economy will continue to provide unlimited average annual growth to fund a partially thought out future need to realize that we are in an age of problems and predicaments that are not going to be paid for properly by deficit spending supported by easing and rate repression. It is the economic wisdom of “real-world concept of the scarcity and finiteness of means” tested by freeish markets with proper price discovery that are at a minimum needed. It should be government’s role with law that utilizes checks and balances to protect the public from private profit. When I say public it means the commons which includes the planetary system.
It is dangerous for government to both take on the roles of creating economic means and determining the fitness of it. This is the type of recipe for the corruption of power. While we understand that capitalism is broken and often called late stage capitalism, the new calls for various massive wealth redistribution and government spending policies are in the same league as the original efforts of central banks post 08 with repression and easing. The socialist are only going to repackage this and distribute the wealth differently with an environmental social justice face to it. The reality is it is just more of the same economic and social failures and what will create a new class of benefits not new productive means.
The pre 08 mal-invested resources that called for the rationalization of consequences from bad debt and Ponzi behavior were instead isolated and disposed of while the wealthy ruling class were given first rights to easing and protected from the means testing by rate repression. IOW public wealth was given to the wealthy ruling class and guaranteed public profit made private. This was done to ensure and protect economic velocities that support aggregate demand and supply. What happened instead is a new economic institution of transferring wealth that is really just a repackaging of Ponzi economics of bubbles and privilege that are age old but with a new financial normal of central bank management.
The socialist are choosing to repatriate this wealth to the angry masses but their methods are being misrepresented as economic science based of failed economic theories of the past repackaged to appeal to the masses. The socialist will also follow this same policy of isolation and disposal of mal-investment and Ponzi behavior and proceeding with new policies of more of the same. Nothing has changed in regards to mal-investment and Ponzi behavior just a new face and means.
I am not making a judgment call on the intent of this new socialist trend only to say it is more of the same failures of late stage capitalism branded with a new socialist face. It is not the proper employment of “scarcity and fitness of means”. It is merely a different way of transferring wealth in a parasitic and destructive way from the real productive areas of the economy. Social fabric is still going to be corrupted by lies. It is also a continuation of the gutting of the planetary system but called green. Fake greens will embrace socialism to push their fake green agenda. Fake green is more consumption and affluence but with a fake green face. While a green agenda and social justice is right using this cover for wealth transfer and false economic mechanism of parasitic wealth transfer without real productive means is a lie also. While it may not be worse than those of the status quo who deny and distort the real reasons for planetary and social decline it is just a continuation of this process
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:06 am
Davy “Its not a miracle, clogged, it is major mal-investment and unrealized bad debt. The consequences are just now coming due.”
I think you are projecting the US situation onto China! LOL! Anything Davy says about China can be safely assumed to be incorrect since he has been systematically wrong on this subject for over five years.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:11 am
China leads in technology.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1137862.shtml
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:18 am
“Moving China: The Spring Festival railway by the numbers.”
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-02/02/c_137795136.htm
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:21 am
“40 years of change for China’s Spring Festival travel rush”
These images of Chinese high speed trains and stations really mak the USA look Third World by comparison.
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:27 am
“I think you are projecting the US situation onto China! LOL! Anything Davy says about China can be safely assumed to be incorrect since he has been systematically wrong on this subject for over five years.”
I think you are so seriously invested in your hatred of me and your rabid anti-Americanism that you cannot see any middle ground. You have an axe to grind and must prove to the imaginary audience that you are right and I am wrong. You are going to censor me even if it destroys this forum in the process because you know:
“JuanP on Fri, 1st Feb 2019 7:13 pm You do have a choice, Davy, as do I. I have chosen to behave like this on purpose and so have you. You might as well admit it. I will never let you enjoy this forum for as long as you keep behaving as you do; that is my choice.”
This is how extremist operate especially ones with borderline personalities exhibited with bad personal behavior that translates into the destruction of the commons which in this case is our forum. Selfish narcissistic behavior for personal goals is all you are doing.
Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:32 am
“China leads in technology.”
Mwoa, still no serious car or plane in sight. But hammer and nails at Walmart are admittedly from China.
Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:36 am
Davy, Juan and others, the readability of your posts would increase if you insert an empty line between quotes and your own thoughts.
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:50 am
Davy “Selfish narcissistic behavior for personal goals is all you are doing.”
You are projecting again, Davy! LOL!
Davy on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:52 am
“Seven Reasons Why China Is Facing A Hard Landing In 2019”
https://tinyurl.com/yczaewml
“Which is why we did not find it surprising that in the latest note from Credit Suisse strategist Andrew Garthwaite, he writes that “to us, China remains the biggest macro risk currently.”
“it does caution that as one of its biggest possible outlier surprises for 2019 that, China suffers a hard landing, defined as real GDP growth slowing to sub 5% (for context, the lowest real GDP growth recorded in the past 40 years – i.e. since the reform and opening up by Deng Xiaoping – was 3.9% in 1990).”
“Property prices fall sharply, causing a hard landing As such, CS thinks that property is the key to a potential hard landing in China as property accounts for 40-50% of banks’ collateral and around half of household wealth.
China’s excess investment results in deflation The investment share of GDP remains extreme. This is a problem because when GDP moves from being investment-led to consumer-led, the GDP growth rate tends to halve.
The leadership is late in using the appropriate policy… and thus make a policy mistake Garthwaite is worried that China’s leadership does too little, too late and that in turns allows the credit bubble to deflate much more aggressively.
Consumer leverage has risen to worrisome levels With a consumer share of GDP of 39%, it is obvious that in the long run growth has to be led by the consumer. The problem is that after Norway, China has had a bigger increase in household debt to GDP than any other country
A financial crisis usually takes c7% off GDP One should also consider the costs in terms of output lost due to contraction in general economic activities. According to a paper published by NBER, the financial crises between 1980-2007 resulted in a hit of c7% of GDP on average (admittedly with a relatively large standard deviation of 9%). A 7% hit would push Chinese GDP growth to conventional recession territory.
The two previous banking crises in China have had NPLs in excess of 20% (for example, in 1999, the AMC bought 24% of total loans). If this happened again, then NPLs would be around 30-40% of GDP (as bank loans are c.155% of GDP and total non-government credit to GDP is c.205%). If we assume that two thirds has to be written off, then the cost would be c20-30% of GDP.
Global Growth China has accounted for 36% of the global growth since 2013 and accounts for 16% of the world GDP (on current exchange rates, 18.7% on PPP). If China growth slows to just 4% (i.e. c.2.2% lower than we expect), that would take 0.4p.p growth off global GDP directly.
Global equities From a stock market perspective, the impact would be even greater because of the high multiples that rely heavily on consumer earnings from China (in the case of staples and luxury, for example). Meanwhile, the much weaker RMB would destabilise emerging market currencies and be a further deflationary force globally at a time when the US economy is slowing. However, the biggest problem is that this time around, unlike 2008, the space for policy response is limited (real rates in a recession typically need to be cut 4% to 5%), and there is no new China to take over the leadership of global growth.”
JuanP on Sat, 2nd Feb 2019 7:53 am
Davy “You are going to censor me even if it destroys this forum in the process.”
You have already destroyed this forum for most people, Davy. You’ve been at it for over five years.