[Ferretlover]

Can't think of one, let alone several from which I could select a "Best" one...

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'C')an't think of one, let alone several from which I could select a "Best" one...

[Tyler_JC]

I suggest that everyone play around with an excel spreadsheet.

Plug in data about current energy use, plug in expected growth/decline in the various sources of energy, plug in expectations about future demand (with varying degrees of increase based on expectations about conservation and efficiency).

I've played around with the data a lot over the years and I come to the same conclusion over and over again. Peak Oil is a manageable problem that will result in neither the collapse of industrial civilization nor a noticeable decline in the Western world's quality of life.

[namenick]

Yeah Tyler, how about posting it. That's pretty far out for anyone to go along with IMO. But first of all I will just add that I recognize that the perceived quality of life is in the eye of the beholder most often and therefore to go without t.v. news wouldn't be a drop in my lifestyle.

[Tyler_JC]

Blue is electricity demand assuming NO change in demand patterns. 1.6% growth from now until forever. I see no reason why that blue line should be anything close to the actual demand curve but I throw it in there as a worst case scenario.

The wind capacity chart shows 30% growth for 5 years, 20% growth for 8 years, 10% growth for 10 years, and then 5% growth from then on.

I stepped it down in this way because I do not believe that we will ever add more than 3% of our total demand from wind power in any single year. It's tough to shut down the fossil fuel power plants fast enough.

The Wind Industry is growing extremely rapidly (45% growth in 2007) and last year the United States added enough wind turbines to power 1.5 million homes.

Wind alone isn't going to do it. We have to change our transportation grid over to electrics and that is going to cost serious money. But there is just too much money to be made producing non-oil energy for the system to collapse.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')We have to change our transportation grid over to electrics

[Tyler_JC]

And as a side note, most of that "gap" is made up of existing power plants that are slowly being shut down and replaced with renewable sources.

We are already getting more than 30% of our new electricity from renewable sources and I see no reason why we can't get virtually all of our new power from renewable sources in the next couple years.

We won't have to build new gas or coal fired power plants. That means we won't deplete our resources any faster than we already are...and as we shut down more plants, those resources will last longer.

[Ferretlover]

Not to be argumentative--
There are so many variables.
For instance, what are aircraft going to use when the aviation fuel is gone? No more over night mail, packages may take weeks;
Extended family scattered all over the US (or, wherever)? No more flights home for weddings; family member die in another state? Don’t plan on making it to the funeral.
Think of all the additional man-hours that will be required to maintain some semblance of our previous lifestyles.
And, won’t electricity/power grid usage go up if electric cars take off?
As for money, the people have to have money (from jobs they might not be able to get to without transportation) to pay for that power. The rich have forgotten from where their wealth comes.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') suggest that everyone play around with an excel spreadsheet.

Plug in data about current energy use, plug in expected growth/decline in the various sources of energy, plug in expectations about future demand (with varying degrees of increase based on expectations about conservation and efficiency).

I've played around with the data a lot over the years and I come to the same conclusion over and over again. Peak Oil is a manageable problem that will result in neither the collapse of industrial civilization nor a noticeable decline in the Western world's quality of life.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')We have to change our transportation grid over to electrics

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')ot to be argumentative--
There are so many variables.
For instance, what are aircraft going to use when the aviation fuel is gone? No more over night mail, packages may take weeks;
Extended family scattered all over the US (or, wherever)? No more flights home for weddings; family member die in another state? Don’t plan on making it to the funeral.
Think of all the additional man-hours that will be required to maintain some semblance of our previous lifestyles.
And, won’t electricity/power grid usage go up if electric cars take off?
As for money, the people have to have money (from jobs they might not be able to get to without transportation) to pay for that power. The rich have forgotten from where their wealth comes.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')We have to change our transportation grid over to electrics

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') suggest that everyone play around with an excel spreadsheet.

Plug in data about current energy use, plug in expected growth/decline in the various sources of energy, plug in expectations about future demand (with varying degrees of increase based on expectations about conservation and efficiency).

I've played around with the data a lot over the years and I come to the same conclusion over and over again. Peak Oil is a manageable problem that will result in neither the collapse of industrial civilization nor a noticeable decline in the Western world's quality of life.

[Ferretlover]

[Tyler=quote] Are overnight packages required for modern civilization?
So it takes longer to visit my cousin in Arizona...and that's why I need to buy guns? The connection between Peak Oil and The End Of The World just isn't there.
If the biggest problem as a result of Peak Oil is that instead of traveling at 500MPH to visit relatives we have to take a train at 1/3 of that speed, I'd say we've done quite well.

Tyler, you goose! lol I was justing listing a couple of minor changes that would occur--people do not adjust well to changes.
IMHO, people who were adults before the e-everything revolution, will adjust better. But, those who have been throughly spoiled by the available of everything NOW, are going to be unhappy, and will try to find ways around getting what they want. On top of that, throw the present and future (just waiting for that penstroke of doom) loss of civil rights, and lawlessness Will require guns.

Yes, I wish the upcoming changes were completely and competently developed and ready to put into place, but they aren't. I don't have the knowledge or training to develop alternative energies, or forms of transportation that could take the place of what FFs have provided us.
The other day, I was talking to one of my congressman's aides about the power grid. He and the congressman were in favor of more nuclear power plants (said there were about 60 permits pending), but there was a problem developing in that workers who were involved with the first npps in the 60s were approaching retirement age, and there are not enough people with the education and work experience to take their place.
There was an article in yesterday's St Paul Pioneer Press about the serious shortage of people to work at developing wind farms in Kansas.

[Tyler_JC]

I've never made a complete model to predict the entire energy picture for 40 years.

It would take me several hours to crunch that many numbers. I always stop after watching a few sources overtake a large portion of the fossil fuel grid.

I can make one but it's going to take a while.

And if you want a variety of models (different demand models, different maximum capacity levels for each source, etc.)...it will take me at least a week and I'd make it a separate thread.

Sadly, I'm not a magician and I can't whip up a realistic model for the entire multi-trillion-dollar energy industry for the next 40 years by tomorrow morning.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')I always stop after watching a few sources overtake a large portion of the fossil fuel grid.

[nocar]

My BEST argument for why everything will be (sort of) Okay is History:

During WWII, free democratic countries lowered their living standards without social disruption.

Of the US, Britain and Sweden, England suffered suffered most, but people pulled together and endured severe hardships and rationing of just about everything.

For the US, the economy seems to have picked up. This board seems to be dominated by Americans, who found the 30s depression the worst period. Not so in Europe which also had a serious depression (an important reason why Hitler could rise to power) but those problems were nothing compared to the WWII. But also in the USA people pulled together in WWII and made efficient use of available resources.

Sweden, located between Norway and Denmark (which were occupied by Germany) and Finland (which fought on the Germany side to prevent a very possible Soviet occupation of their country) never entered WWII. Still Sweden was very much affected, since all or most imports were stopped -- like food, oil, coffee -- and most younger men were in military camps on high alert. People did not like to cut down on or go without butter, cream and meat, and coffee! but they did because they had to. Rationing worked reasonably fairly and everybody got a share. Underweight children got extra rations, for example. People got around on bicycles (not that Sweden really had entered the automobile age but there were cars around in teh 1930s that remained parked through the duration of the war).

So my point again: Free democratic countries can pull together and make the most of resources as they dwindle, and learn to do things in new ways. Think Victory Gardens in England.

nocar

[Omnitir]

[Revi]

Everything will be okay because that is the way I choose to see it. We will have a lot less of everything in our household starting this year. We have our solar back up light system in place. We'll use that a lot more and turn the other lights off. We will have more fires in the woodstove. We will barter in the market if we have to for food. We'll take showers when the sun heats up the water and won't use much hot water when it doesn't. We'll go to the library and take books out instead of spending money on movies and entertainment. We'll cook a bunch of beans and rice and eat that. We'll eat a lot of oatmeal and pancakes with our own maple syrup, and like it! We'll cut more wood to cook and heat the house. We'll get around on bicycles if we can't afford to drive our regular cars.

That's why everything will be okay. It has to be. It will be.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')re overnight packages required for modern civilization?

So it takes longer to visit my cousin in Arizona...and that's why I need to buy guns? The connection between Peak Oil and The End Of The World just isn't there.