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Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for mankind?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby turmoil » Tue 02 Oct 2007, 20:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', 'I')t's why insect species have survived for millions. They get by on nothing.


That's kind of a terrible example. Insects have a huge "churnrate". They live like five seconds.

True, they don't live long. But they have a great quality of life. Some of them can fly around, like having your own personal jetpack. They provide a great service to nature by pollinating plants or helping to decompose dead plants and animals. They are essential to ecosystems everywhere. They do all this in their very short lives. We live 70 years and provide what? We haven't begun to think this way. But when we do we'll find that by being part of the world rather than "above" it allows us a better quality of life.

If we can manage to divert a huge meteor or asteroid, I'd say we've done our part. But we're likely causing the greatest mass extinction of all time, probably because we live so long and haven't figured out how to keep ourselves in check. But maybe we have by initiating a planetary fever that could wipe many of us out.

We'll see. In the mean time, I'm gonna try to live like an insect, even though I happen to live longer.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby bodigami » Tue 02 Oct 2007, 21:51:29

"Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for mankind?"
Maybe, if not we deserve extinction.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Johnvancouver » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 02:41:06

Yeah, I have to agree with Zardoz. The wake up will come only when the pumps run dry at gas stations. Until then, governments world over will keep pumping liquidity into the financial system to keep the illusion of eCONomic prosperity alive.

Watching the stock markets everywhere racing for new highs day after day and commodity prices going to the moon, I get the feeling that this may be the final binge before the total collapse. The collective hang-over and wake up may happen sooner than we think.
UFO pilot: "Captain, our calculation shows planet earth won’t survive another 50 years at this rate of consumption. Why have the humans not noticed this?" UFO Captain: "They can only see one quarter ahead of time." -JVancouver
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 04:00:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'B')ut I see you still as defeatist. Where as I have dropped my opinions as to where humanity is heading can you say the same?

Uncharted waters best sums it up. To hold on to utopic beliefs in some cultural transformation coming up ahead is just as delusional as convincing yourself that we are inevitably heading toward wars etc.

It's nice to drop the baggage of having a belief that you try to twist reality around. Can you say the same?

My defeatist attitude is due to realization, that we do not have time to introduce necessary changes to our consumerist behaviour, economic paradigm, religious beliefs etc.
It is not due to my inability to contemplate such changes in principle.
I can see a path to achieve such changes, as long as humanity got at least 100 years to adapt it's values but 200-300 years is probably more adequate period of time.
On the other hand I am convinced that any "crush course" to achieve necessary changes would result in societal disasters, wars, revolutions, civil wars etc.
The results would be comparable to resource wars and usual course of die-off without any guarantee that meaningful changes could be implemented at all.
So if we started to push towards those changes in 1960-ties (sexual revolution was a good opportunity to start with...) we could now be on good path to success and at 2050 most of job could be done. Few peoples would feel unduly oppressed and majority of those who did so would not live long enough to face grossly different society.
Nevertheless wheel of fortune has turned the wrong way and now we are living in societies with wrong set of values and time is running out.
Even so, as we observe world around, there is no will to transform and all human intelligence and effort is directed towards continuation of status quo.
20 years from now on at the latest we will see die-off unrolling, that will cause wars etc and humanity will deal with overshot in traditional way as directed by Nature.
Die-off time is not the best to try changes either. Peoples are known to stick to their values and beliefs in such circumstances.

So the keyword to my defeatism is one simple word - time, or rather lack of it.
In any case I am only defeatist in respect to overall prospects of large global civilization.
I am quite optimistic in respect to success of many local communities (local, means not larger than medium size nation wide).
Many of those will certainly succeed, but some others will perish...
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby hi-fiver » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 04:40:09

Memes as currently known are no more powerful than fads. There are genitic entitites known as lethal genes which demonstrate their potential upon manisfestation. Consequently their manifistation may bring on the onset of some strange genitic disease, or in some cases bring on some previously unheard tallent, never before exibited by this person. The lethal gene phenomin is well understood and under the influence of powerful memms could cause the selections of the said lethel genes to directionally select specific gene sequences that could prove highly beneficial to the threatened species...It would be impossible to predict the direction or the intensities of the development of these lethel genes...chance alone would find several benificial to the species.
God can piss down your neck evey day of the week - but he can only drown you once. (undnown)
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby AgentR » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 06:24:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', ' '){insects} do all this in their very short lives. We live 70 years and provide what? We haven't begun to think this way. But when we do we'll find that by being part of the world rather than "above" it allows us a better quality of life.


We are apex predators, we don't provide. We destroy and reset. Which would be fine and good in the natural way of things.

That is, If there weren't over 6 billion of us with access to a ridiculously potent (but finite) food supply.

An insect can not wish its way to apex predator status; likewise, we are what we are, and wishing to be creators of biological order or wealth can not change that.
Yes, we are. As we are.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby turmoil » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 09:21:46

I can't disagree with anything there, except that I wouldn't call what we could do "wishing." I think because there are so many of us and because we are able to harness huge amounts of energy, it changes our status. We can no longer merely destroy, because we destroy ourselves in the process. Instead of wishing, we are forced to live in a way that allows us to survive as well.

I think we will eventually see that we are killing ourselves, and react in a way that solves the problem. Could be 30-50 years from now because things usually have to get bad before they get better.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby manu » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 09:23:56

Yes, right after the next nuclear war.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Revi » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 09:31:09

We are getting awfully maudlin, aren't we. We only have 70 years or so on the stage. We have to make the most of it. I figure I'll keep pushing my green message for another 25 years or so, and move aside for the next generation. They might not wake up, but it'll be hard to sleep soon.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby PhebaAndThePilgrim » Wed 03 Oct 2007, 11:03:12

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
I read way too many books. I find wonderful quotes in books, then forget which book I acquired the quote from. This is a quote from a recent book I read. I forget which book, and who the author is, but it is not mine.
However, I feel it suits this discussion.
Quote is not exact, but is as much as I remember:
"our frontal lobes are too small, our adrenal glands are too large, and our sex organs were designed by committee.

Pheba
The first time I read that I cracked up laughing. How succinct and true.
We are stupid and shortsighted.
We panic, and let fear decide for us,
and our sex drive is off the wall.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby bodigami » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 01:33:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phebagirl', 'G')ood day from Pheba, from the farm:
I read way too many books. I find wonderful quotes in books, then forget which book I acquired the quote from. This is a quote from a recent book I read. I forget which book, and who the author is, but it is not mine.
However, I feel it suits this discussion.
Quote is not exact, but is as much as I remember:
"our frontal lobes are too small, our adrenal glands are too large, and our sex organs were designed by committee.

Pheba
The first time I read that I cracked up laughing. How succinct and true.
We are stupid and shortsighted.
We panic, and let fear decide for us,
and our sex drive is off the wall.


I'm not so sure that is true.
I've learned to see life as merely energy... used just to mantain life and a serene mind. Even sex drive can be converted to pure energy and do something more useful (now, with overpopulation) with it than screwing around.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 05:00:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', ' ')Even sex drive can be converted to pure energy and do something more useful (now, with overpopulation) with it than screwing around.

Any practical details?
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 19:14:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', ' ')Even sex drive can be converted to pure energy and do something more useful (now, with overpopulation) with it than screwing around.

Any practical details?


That's what those big 240 volt plugs were for in the Matrix. They were converting the Mojo to AC.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Judgie » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 19:52:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', ' ')Even sex drive can be converted to pure energy and do something more useful (now, with overpopulation) with it than screwing around.

Any practical details?


That's what those big 240 volt plugs were for in the Matrix. They were converting the Mojo to AC.


Sounds a little small, I would've thought you'd need 1000 volt three-phase to handle the ego's, let alone sex-drive :lol:
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 01:54:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')Even so, as we observe world around, there is no will to transform and all human intelligence and effort is directed towards continuation of status quo.


And so because of this entrenched status quo we just now fall back on waiting for the destabilzing events and human die-off to kick in and act as a catalyst for change. This has been my position for years but it is exactly this position that I am increasingly doubtful of.

If humans cant manage sustainability in times of abundance they wont manage any better during times of environmental and energy limits. Being forced to power down is not the same as a cultural transformation toward sustainability.

As an overpopulated human species competes for increasingly dwindling resources what is the dynamic at play that will lead to an enlightened cultural orientation toward sustainability? How does competing for decreasing resources with your fellow species lead to a collective altruism toward cooperation and sustainability?
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 02:37:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I')f humans can't manage sustainability in times of abundance they won't manage any better during times of environmental and energy limits.

Exactly.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '.')..what is the dynamic at play that will lead to an enlightened cultural orientation toward sustainability?

There is no such dynamic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'H')ow does competing for decreasing resources with your fellow species lead to a collective altruism toward cooperation and sustainability?

It doesn't.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby AgentR » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 04:37:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', 'I') think we will eventually see that we are killing ourselves, and react in a way that solves the problem. Could be 30-50 years from now because things usually have to get bad before they get better.


Nah, we'll solve them the way we always do; we will war, tribe against tribe, until there are a more reasonable number alive.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby turmoil » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 10:03:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'Y')es, right after the next nuclear war.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I')t doesn't.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'N')ah, we'll solve them the way we always do; we will war, tribe against tribe, until there are a more reasonable number alive.

Conventional War is profitable and it isn't going away (see zeitgeist), but I think most people will just starve cause they can't afford stuff. The problems can be solved by regulating inflation. Nuclear war only seems profitable when you are building nukes rather than detonating them, or if you are trying to avoid (rather than cause) millions of deaths on both sides. In other words, nuclear war, and even conventional war, are the least of our worries.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'H')ow does competing for decreasing resources with your fellow species lead to a collective altruism toward cooperation and sustainability?


Every single person on the planet doesn't have to "get it" at once. Once awareness reaches a critical mass regarding why things "got bad," I think our reaction will be on a higher level than we think. In some ways you can see it now. But things are still good enough for the people causing the problem that we haven't really seen how bad it is. Once we see first hand how bad it is and understand why, logic dictates from there.

The problem is us. The solution is less of us. But my question is once there are less of us (mostly through starvation, dehydration, and disease), will we learn the lesson? I think we will have to in order to survive, even at the lower population level.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I')f humans can't manage sustainability in times of abundance they won't manage any better during times of environmental and energy limits.
It's not that we collectively haven't managed sustainability, sustainability just isn't profitable yet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '.')..what is the dynamic at play that will lead to an enlightened cultural orientation toward sustainability?
Profit. Profit seeking is why we are here, and profit seeking will be the answer.
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 06 Oct 2007, 05:07:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', '
')Profit. Profit seeking is why we are here, and profit seeking will be the answer.


Profit as an incentive works in our current system of capitalism because it brings immediate short term benefits to say a factory that recycles its waste.

Profit works when Boeing for example introduces an new jet with carbon fiber fuselage and more fuel effecient engines because buyers will see the increased profits in their bottom lines (let's leave Jevons Paradox out of the discussion a moment about the expansion of the airline industry as a result of these fuel efficiency gains).

But these examples are related to actions taken by individual corporations to profit by offering an advantage against their competitors. Classic capitalism, classic economics.

Now tell me how the profit mechanism will lead us to sustainability when what will be required is for nations or individuals to sacrafice their energy consumption for the greater good? Do you seriously believe that China or the US will voluntarily reduce their consumption and purposefully lower their economic outputs?

Remember that social pressures will become enormous once the prospects of achieving affluence is yanked away from an ever growing segment of populations in most countries. Exactly at the moment when cooperation in resource usage will require sacrafice we will have politicians under enormous pressure from growing social unrest to find short term fixes.

Can you elaborate how profit profit profit as you say will solve this?
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Re: Will there ever be a truely collective wake up for manki

Unread postby turmoil » Sat 06 Oct 2007, 11:14:37

Sure, but don't get me wrong. I don't claim to know exactly how it will play out. I'm just going on the hunch that human self-interest can be redirected any way one wants. Thats why marketing is so powerful. Marketing creates and shifts paradigms. But in the case of overpopulation, the products basically sell themselves.

So, lets take a look at where we are now. Selling Carbon offsets is profitable and sustainable on its own because people are paying for people to plant trees. The business owners take a bit off the top. Done. Simpler than getting oil out of the ground, refining it, and distributing it. But there is more demand (and better marketing) for oil and gas than there is for trees. Right now most people, if they even knew what CO2 and methane are doing to Greenland, for instance, would still choose to drive 10k miles a year, than plant the equivalent dollar value in trees to avoid the melting. In other words, people are willing and able to pay for oil, but only able to pay for carbon offsets. Classic.

Another example is the current politics. Right now since oil is more profitable than carbon offsets, the oil lobby is able to delay any political action on climate (and oil depletion). This is happening globally.

Now lets try to predict the future. Dangerous, yet less so than not.

In the future, due to the ramifications of overpopulation and climate, it will be more profitable to get fewer resources to less people than a lot of resources to a lot of people. Due to the strain on the average income, people will be forced to pay for some things rather than others. But the reason that people demand all these things now is that they generally compliment each other. For instance, ketchup is complimentary for hot dogs and hamburgers. But if you can't afford the meat because meat prices have skyrocketed, you aren't going to be buying ketchup either, unless you like to put it on things you can afford. Therefore it is better to have both ketchup and meat be affordable because people just won't buy either if they can't buy both. Another example: if gasoline is too high, people won't buy cars, and vice versa. So part of the solution is to supply products to less people so demand by default goes down and thus price, allowing them to buy both complimentary products.

That is the microeconomic view. Now lets zoom out and see whats going on the national / global scale.

Right now many tax dollars are spent on things that just won't be a priority on the downslope. Lets take social security and Medicare. They are based on infinite growth of the work force, and therefore not sustainable by default. Eventually someone will say this and get elected based on the idea that the money can be put to better use, like for building nuke power plants to offset the natural gas and coal usage (for environment and economic reasons). Another is the salaries of government employees. They will be viewed as too high and that the money can help reduce energy usage somewhere in the system. But to sum this up, the tax dollars are not willing to be spent on sustainable things, but the money is there. When the effects of resource depletion and climate reach the average American, the politics will change. This type of shift will happen globally.

Now lets address voluntary conservation. Religion is the key. Take Ramadan, the Muslim month-long fast (going on now). Do you think this was created for spiritual purposes or for economic reasons? If we were to add up all the food and energy conserved during Ramadan you could probably feed Africa for the month. Now apply that to Christianity and you have yourself a built in regulator for food consumption / energy use. Interpretation is a powerful thing, especially when people pay people to tell them how to think. They are going to get their money's worth.

Again I'm not saying that this is exactly how it will play out, but I think people who are already in the mindset that consuming less will likely be necessary on everyone's part, will be better off. And I think more and more people are going to be in that mindset as we proceed. Basically what I'm getting at in the above paragraphs is that, we may not have an instant wake up, but human self interest applies to business, politics, and religion as well, not only the personal drive to "get mine," and that will cause things to shift relatively quickly.
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