[JuanP]

Great comments above, good thread. While I don't know what will happen in the future, here's part of my best guess at the time.
I profoundly dislike economic systems as they are today, I think they hardly could be worse. So, basically, I welcome all future change.
I believe the economy is likely to contract in size for decades, if not centuries, and is highly unlikely to ever again be as big as it is today in the future. I think this is good, and necessary to preserve and restore the biosphere. Today's population and consumption levels are unsustainable and a global economic contraction should be welcomed.
The economic collapse won't be even. The economy tends to run in cycles and I think this could remain so in the future, too. The cycles will be between contraction and stagnation, leading to an economy that systematically contracts in the long run. In the past the cycles where from growth to recession and back to growth, and the long term trend was growth since we got started.
The events we are facing are a once in human existence thing. We have never been this powerful before, and after fossil fuels are gone, we will most likely never be this powerful again.
So, the economy might get "better" after a while, depending on your perspective, if we survive, but it will never grow back to this again, IMO.

[ralfy]

Because the effects of peak oil may take place even before production peaks, then one should not have to wait for production to peak.

Because many economies are coupled to each other, and because there are many other factors to consider (such as increasing risks due to financial speculation, the effects of global warming and environmental damage, a growing number of people who want middle class amenities, a current middle class that can only maintain its lifestyle through a growing market of consumers, etc.), then collapse may accelerate, become widespread, and worsen.

[MonteQuest]

With a debt-based monetary system based upon infinite growth in a finite world, without a growth in energy production and GDP, there is no economy. Growth is necessary to service the debt. No growth, no debt, no money. I think we are seeing the death throes of capitalism.

[DesuMaiden]

The answer is no. The economy will only get worse as we pass peak oil...watch this youtube video to find out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j4Tyy5nsQ8

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ith a debt-based monetary system based upon infinite growth in a finite world, without a growth in energy production and GDP, there is no economy. Growth is necessary to service the debt. No growth, no debt, no money. I think we are seeing the death throes of capitalism.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'B')ut debt can grow to infinity & beyond because the system of money creation allows it to do so, all that debt is the reason for near zero interest rates in the financial sector. At some point in the future someone may create a "superdebt" that will be impossible to ever repay and defer it indefinitely, thus making the debt "vanish" off the balance sheets. The rulebook was rewritten in 2008 to save the financial system , no reason not to expect the same thing to happen again.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'B')ut debt can grow to infinity & beyond because the system of money creation allows it to do so, all that debt is the reason for near zero interest rates in the financial sector. At some point in the future someone may create a "superdebt" that will be impossible to ever repay and defer it indefinitely, thus making the debt "vanish" off the balance sheets. The rulebook was rewritten in 2008 to save the financial system , no reason not to expect the same thing to happen again.

[ralfy]

If credit is ultimately dependent on increased production and consumption of goods using more energy and material resources, then increasing credit will matter less given lower energy returns.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')hat's why I suspect that the bank of (powers that be) will at sometine in the future create the superdebt @ 0% with an indefinite repayment to avoid the "default" situation.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')hat's why I suspect that the bank of (powers that be) will at sometine in the future create the superdebt @ 0% with an indefinite repayment to avoid the "default" situation.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')hat's why I suspect that the bank of (powers that be) will at sometine in the future create the superdebt @ 0% with an indefinite repayment to avoid the "default" situation.

[dolanbaker]

The increased food costs are directly related to the increases in the cost of fuel used in their production, rather than being directly affected by the financial sector actions.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')he increased food costs are directly related to the increases in the cost of fuel used in their production, rather than being directly affected by the financial sector actions.

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - Perhaps we've already gotten a hint of what PO will bring: all of the above. High/low energy prices, high/low drilling activity, good/poor economic growth, etc. And maybe inflation/deflation also depending on gov't actions. The feedback loops seem rather inevitable: look at the current drop in oil prices following high oil prices that bought on more drilling which brought on more production. More production which, along with the economic damage of high oil prices, leading to lower oil prices. And the future? The timing is, as always, difficult to predict. But not the nature of the POD IMHO.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'H')yperinflation is the exact opposite of what is currently happening, what happened in Weimar Germany & Zimbabwe was that the printed money went into circulation. The current situation has the money staying within the banking & financial sector.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his is such an interesting debate. It was widely thought here at po.com that hyperinflation (a consequence of tight oil, high prices) would ensue, and gold was the hedge. I don't remember deflation being much of a concern. However it seems the two are tightly coupled: demand/debt collapse followed by government over-stimulation (currency devaluation in Germany. QE in the USA) may play out differently in different countries but the result is the same; deflation. Last time it was call stagflation here in the US.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his is such an interesting debate. It was widely thought here at po.com that hyperinflation (a consequence of tight oil, high prices) would ensue, and gold was the hedge. I don't remember deflation being much of a concern.

[PieceOfMine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')If we correctly define inflation as too much money in circulation relative to the goods and services available, rather than rising prices ( which is the effect of inflation) then one would expect the FEDS QE to create massive inflation. If we interest rates this low in the 1960's we would have hyperinflation. Why don't we?

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'H')yperinflation is the exact opposite of what is currently happening, what happened in Weimar Germany & Zimbabwe was that the printed money went into circulation. The current situation has the money staying within the banking & financial sector.