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Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby C8 » Wed 08 May 2013, 21:06:14

Suddenly faster all of the sudden- we are finally at parity with Uganda
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby jackmehoffer » Wed 08 May 2013, 21:17:49

You like charts? WTIC crude Point and FIgure Chart,

Bullish Double Top Breakout May 3, target $110 US

....30 C in early May, might be some strong storms in the Gulf should they develop
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 09 May 2013, 01:39:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are now resorting to shale, etc., because conventional production has hardly caught up with global demand, and production for the majors has been dropping:


Resorting to shale etc? What does that mean? Shale is just another oil bearing layer.


Not always. Sometimes it contains natural gas. Sometimes water. Sometimes all three. Didn't you learn anything about geology Shorty while running seismic crews? Not that it requires knowing any geology to run a seismic crew, but get with the program, just because it's a shale doesn't mean it contains oil.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 09 May 2013, 02:13:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ey as someone who started accessing the Internet with a 300 baud modem I was excessively thrilled to get up to 9600 in 1986 and 14.4 in 1988!

I can't read faster than 300 baud. I still have mine, just in case ...
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby careinke » Sat 11 May 2013, 01:29:06

Who ever fixed the site.....bless you. :) :-D :lol:
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sat 11 May 2013, 10:23:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are now resorting to shale, etc., because conventional production has hardly caught up with global demand, and production for the majors has been dropping:


Resorting to shale etc? What does that mean? Shale is just another oil bearing layer. The oil is the same and there is so much of it you don't have to worry about peak oil anymore.


You really are a trolling ignoramus. Have you not recognized the production rate issues at all? We all know you hate EROEI, another factor you never seem to cog is ELM. Peak oil is a complex issue and it's not going away. Speaking of which, why don't you? Since you have nothing but contempt for the topic at hand, why bother unless it's the sheer joy of trollery?


These concepts you refer to are political in nature. Some balance is needed. Why you would attempt to denigrate a person expressing an opinion different from yours is a mystery?

The concepts of eroei and peak oil are very convoluted and fluid. They are nonesensical when held up to the mirror of reality: ample oil and an ever growing world economy.

Peak oil is a a concept that has been proven wrong at every step of the way. Each time new evidence arises showing that fact to be true the "concept" changes. Now, you are right, I have no idea what peak oil is because the world is awash in crude and will be, even if we dont invest another dime in exploration, for the next 100 years or so. That means we will maintain our current supplies and continue to expand into demand without doing a thing for 100 yrs or so.

Unlikely we wont explore and develop but politics is doing what it can to see that happens. But if we dont, your concept of peak oil will start to kick in then if oil hasnt been relegated to a secondary energy supply by other advancing technologies.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sat 11 May 2013, 10:36:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are now resorting to shale, etc., because conventional production has hardly caught up with global demand, and production for the majors has been dropping:


Resorting to shale etc? What does that mean? Shale is just another oil bearing layer.


Not always. Sometimes it contains natural gas. Sometimes water. Sometimes all three. Didn't you learn anything about geology Shorty while running seismic crews? Not that it requires knowing any geology to run a seismic crew, but get with the program, just because it's a shale doesn't mean it contains oil.


Nobody said that. Shale is just another oil bearing layer. It contains gas and water too. The oil bearing shales are the richest deposits of oil the world has ever found and they are found world-wide. The oil well I have an interest in poked the shale and has sold all of its natural gas production this year! The water was disposed of too. It also made a lot of oil. Should I call it a gas well, a water well or an oil well? Does that change the EUR of the shales and the resulting doom of peak oil?

Geology is not important when running seismic crews. Petroleum engineers did all that type of analysis. We explored where they wanted us to explore. Our very postive eroei was maintained by efficient logistics. That was my specialty. More like running a military operation because we moved overland and had to have supplies and support ahead while producing a profit. ROCKMAN knows all about us. We gave him a job in a derivative sort of way.

Its a very interesting and exciting business. You have no idea how much oil we found, and where, but there are generations of oil development yet to be announced. The williston basin is far larger than they let on. Why drive up the cost of mineral and land rights? Those of us in the industry far enough up the ladder were privy to the results. Its very secretive. You talk you walk.

Ive explored every major basin in the US west of the Mississippi not in TX or LA. Our continent is soaked with oil, gas and water too. You may not know, but the forest of Washingtion and Oregon will one day be growing oil fields.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 11 May 2013, 10:51:30

Explored from your desktop shorty. You are forgetting some of us here have known you for years, lifetimes even. :-D
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sat 11 May 2013, 11:18:58

You mad bro? Sometimes your mind seems closed and you are emotional in a negative way when faced with facts conflicting with your belief system. Am I right bro?

The substance of the worlds known oil supply is sufficient for one hundred yrs. Even today "text books" might admit that. We know we already have that. The industry says 200 or more! It is enough to meet our demand without exploring for more. All we have to do is develop it!

Peak oil is delayed for at least 100 yrs at which time zero point energy should be available or at least a personal cold fusion reactor.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 11 May 2013, 15:26:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')These concepts you refer to are political in nature. Some balance is needed. Why you would attempt to denigrate a person expressing an opinion different from yours is a mystery?

The concepts of eroei and peak oil are very convoluted and fluid. They are nonesensical when held up to the mirror of reality: ample oil and an ever growing world economy.

Peak oil is a a concept that has been proven wrong at every step of the way. Each time new evidence arises showing that fact to be true the "concept" changes. Now, you are right, I have no idea what peak oil is because the world is awash in crude and will be, even if we dont invest another dime in exploration, for the next 100 years or so. That means we will maintain our current supplies and continue to expand into demand without doing a thing for 100 yrs or so.

Unlikely we wont explore and develop but politics is doing what it can to see that happens. But if we dont, your concept of peak oil will start to kick in then if oil hasnt been relegated to a secondary energy supply by other advancing technologies.


Completely the opposite. The fact that we are now resorting to shale and that we have not seen the claims of 115 Mb/d in conventional production and prices dropping to less than $30 a barrel is more than enough proof of peak oil, not to mention the fact that if we look at production per capita, that peaked back in 1979.

The only "politics" involved in this issue involves referring to reserves rather than production rate and decline curves, and claiming that we need to "explore" more, as if by doing so production rate will suddenly go up. This reminds me of Saudi claims a few years back of easily reaching 15 Mb/d by 2011.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 12 May 2013, 11:29:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')
Peak oil is delayed for at least 100 yrs at which time zero point energy should be available or at least a personal cold fusion reactor.


While sarcasm is rarely appreciated on the internet, how about we mark this comment up to just sheer ignorance?
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 12 May 2013, 11:32:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')The only "politics" involved in this issue involves referring to reserves rather than production rate and decline curves, and claiming that we need to "explore" more, as if by doing so production rate will suddenly go up. This reminds me of Saudi claims a few years back of easily reaching 15 Mb/d by 2011.


As opposed to Hubbert claiming that the world would only produce 12 billion barrels a day at peak? Ralfy, you just can't use any of these claims as having much of value. Peak oil happened, it became a plateau, something else will happen soon and the likelihood of what it will be is still up for debate.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 12 May 2013, 12:28:54

John - "As opposed to Hubbert claiming that the world would only produce 12 billion barrels a day at peak?" Since the world had produced more than that amount of oil by Hubbert's time I assume you miss spoke. Care to make your point again? Thanks

And I fully agree with you about projections of future oil rates. It seems that often such projections, both high and low, fail to include the most important aspect of such projections: the future price assumptions. As an example one can easily project increased US oil production IF oil prices stay at or above present levels. OTOH it would seem foolish to do so if one used much lower prices than we now have. It was only a few years ago that many folks had to eat their words regarding a continued boom in shale gas drilling. Whether they stated it or not those projection assumed high NG prices. And then prices collapsed and the rig count for such efforts dropped 75%. If one had stated their price assumptions for those optimistic drilling projections they at least would have a readymade excuse for being incorrect.

No one, not the biggest optimist on the planet, would have projected the current increase in US oil production had they assumed the oil price had remained at the levels of the late 90's. IMHO any projection of future oil/NG production rates isn't worth debating if it doesn't include the assumed price platform. Pricing is and always has been a more important factor in what gets drilled than the geology. I’m about to try an EOR project I developed 12 years ago. Couldn’t get funding until now. The geology hasn’t improved at all in the last decade…oil prices have. As I've stated before the oil patch would have drilled thousands of the current unconventional reservoir wells back in the 90's had oil prices been where they are today. We had the technology to do so at the time: we were using it to develop the fractured Austin Chalk carbonate shale at the time. And we knew of those proven but non-commercial reserves in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale for decades. All we lacked was higher oil prices.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sun 12 May 2013, 12:44:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s I've stated before the oil patch would have drilled thousands of the current unconventional reservoir wells back in the 90's had oil prices been where they are today. We had the technology to do so at the time: we were using it to develop the fractured Austin Chalk carbonate shale at the time. And we knew of those proven but non-commercial reserves in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale for decades. All we lacked was higher oil prices.


The boom of the 80s early 90s was essentially a sceismic exploration drilling technology development period. We were delineating the formations they were at work on thechniques and equipment to produce it. Oil was under $20/barrel. We liked $20 oil because money flowed almost without care and business boomed. Under $20 and things got tight. At $100/barrel today these guys are gleefully rubbing their hands together. Profits have never been higher.

They have been drilling into the Williston Basin and Bakken formations for a couple generations. It has never stopped. (almost unlimited coal too even a coal gasification plant) They just couldnt figure it out. It was hit and miss with big flows going down to a trickle. A few were good wells lasting a genertation. Lots of dry or otherwise uneconomic holes. But, you could make money and they did for about 60 yrs. Then it really started to flow.

When we were out there locating the shales and much deeper oil bearing layers not often talked about, they were just learning how to "whipstock" the string and control the bits location. The bit tends to move where it finds the easiest path. It took a while to develop the techniques that can contol a bit a mile in any direction from the bore hole and a mile under ground. But you would see the survey crews 1/4 mile out from the well with a string of pin flags back to rig showing the toolpush the path of the bit.

In those days the reason given for the "whipstocking" was to penetrate isolated "pools" of oil under restricted lands such as Theodore Roosevelt National Park and some of the restricted grassland areas. This was generally accepted, there was never a peep about horizontal fracked legs.

I think they were already planning to frack, they just needed those long horizontal legs. They were working on the machines etc. Test had already been done with down hole explosives and other fracking injecting techniques. As Rockman says they have been fracking for a long time, but never like this. This has opened up what some are calling unconventional resources but it is unimaginable in its size and value to society into the future.

Oil production costs are falling in North Dakota very dramatically. This is the history of all great oil resources. The infrastructure to drill/produce/ship has to be put into place. That takes years, its expensive and its paid for up front. Cost/barrel for the first barrels may be $100 each but they will fall dramatically over time until the last barrels have an extraction cost of a penny.

Its true the price of oil helped spur the development in the Bakken but it is nowhere near as crticial as it was 15-20 yrs ago. It really doesnt matter what the price of oil is now, they are going to drain the Williston Basin of its billions and billions of barrels, unless of course we get zero point or cold fusion reactors in our basements. 8-O ? :roll:

:lol:
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 12 May 2013, 14:11:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')And we knew of those proven but non-commercial reserves in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale for decades. All we lacked was higher oil prices.


Well that does beg the question...now that we have the higher prices, and the US operators are pioneering the way to the fastest increasing oil production currently in the world, what is going to happen as the unconventional resources of the rest of the world begin to be developed? If the US can get a couple million a day in production, what can the rest of the world get?
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 12 May 2013, 14:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')Its true the price of oil helped spur the development in the Bakken but it is nowhere near as crticial as it was 15-20 yrs ago. It really doesnt matter what the price of oil is now, they are going to drain the Williston Basin of its billions and billions of barrels, unless of course we get zero point or cold fusion reactors in our basements. 8-O ? :roll:

:lol:


Shorty, even you can't be that stupid. Ignorant maybe, but not stupid. If OpEx is greater than revenue, the jig is up. So yes, it does matter what the price of oil is, because when BBLS X $$/BBL can't meet OpEx, all your wishful thinking is revealed as is wishful thinking. By now it should be obvious from what the 2 Roc's say that price really matters, and you pretending it doesn't is either stupid or ignorant. So stop while you are ahead.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 12 May 2013, 14:49:06

John – If the US govt turned losev a few Marine Expeditionary Forces lose in a couple of unnamed countries our Texas independents could roll in behind and start turning to the right as fast as possible. Wouldn’t be the first time I sat on a rig ringed with armed men. A few years ago I would watch a navy patrol boat circle the rig while I was drilling. Made for a more restful sleep not worrying about Nigerian pirates. Expat pay is great…hazard duty pay is even sweeter. LOL.

Then we might see a global bump. Otherwise I just don’t think those boys over there, even with the help of Blue and Big Red, could get ‘er done anytime soon. But our MEF’s are standing by to keep the Middle East stable so the Chinese can continue their plans uninterrupted. LOL.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Sun 12 May 2013, 17:30:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')Its true the price of oil helped spur the development in the Bakken but it is nowhere near as crticial as it was 15-20 yrs ago. It really doesnt matter what the price of oil is now, they are going to drain the Williston Basin of its billions and billions of barrels, unless of course we get zero point or cold fusion reactors in our basements. 8-O ? :roll:

:lol:


Shorty, even you can't be that stupid. Ignorant maybe, but not stupid. If OpEx is greater than revenue, the jig is up. So yes, it does matter what the price of oil is, because when BBLS X $$/BBL can't meet OpEx, all your wishful thinking is revealed as is wishful thinking. By now it should be obvious from what the 2 Roc's say that price really matters, and you pretending it doesn't is either stupid or ignorant. So stop while you are ahead.


Nobodys drilling one well in the Williston Basin, everybodys drilling 100. Way different than "a deal".

Every barrel of oil that comes from a well will not cost $100. The first one might but the last will be free for all practical purposes. Of course you could average out the costs over the entire production but people want to be paid now so things are all loaded up on the first few yrs. The 850,000 barrels they pumped today in North Dakota are coming up no matter what the price. The price of most of it is probably guaranteed anyway.

My guess, RMs costs are high with little or no economies of scale. The drill-out of the Bakken shale is so large that cost efficiencies are being realized at an ever increasing rate. This is the nature of any large manufacturing operation, which in a sense this is. Logistics and supplies are now in place. Men and equipment are available, permits are stretching out in front of them and the wells behind can flow out at a rate over 1 million barrels/day.

What RM is doing and what is going on over those shales are two different things. The momentum of the drill-out in the Williston Basin is far less price sensitive than RMs deal at the margins. This huge drilling effort is leaving thousands of producing wells in its wake. This puts a nice cash flow under things further reducing price sensitivity.

The Bakken is far less risky too, further insulating it from price. The only suprises anybody is getting are to the upside. It so much so that the margin on the consolodating deals has been increasing in favor of the sellers. Everbody is realizing it just tripled. That is probably only a modest estimate of what is actually out there for each well drilled and to be drilled.

My guess: This web site will slowly shift to honoring and celebrating the pure genuis of Americas oil industry as the issue of peak oil becomes a memory. By far and away Americas oil industry is tops in the world. No competition. If there is oil American companies are there, one way or another, because they know how to get it and get it to market.

It could also become the home of the cold fusion/zero point energy group. Certainly they have as much hope as peak oil? The cashmere affect is real they tell me. 8)
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby davep » Sun 12 May 2013, 17:32:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there is oil American companies are there, one way or another, because they know how to get it and get it to market.


And have the world's biggest army to ensure access to markets.
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