by Econ101 » Sun 12 May 2013, 12:44:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s I've stated before the oil patch would have drilled thousands of the current unconventional reservoir wells back in the 90's had oil prices been where they are today. We had the technology to do so at the time: we were using it to develop the fractured Austin Chalk carbonate shale at the time. And we knew of those proven but non-commercial reserves in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale for decades. All we lacked was higher oil prices.
The boom of the 80s early 90s was essentially a sceismic exploration drilling technology development period. We were delineating the formations they were at work on thechniques and equipment to produce it. Oil was under $20/barrel. We liked $20 oil because money flowed almost without care and business boomed. Under $20 and things got tight. At $100/barrel today these guys are gleefully rubbing their hands together. Profits have never been higher.
They have been drilling into the Williston Basin and Bakken formations for a couple generations. It has never stopped. (almost unlimited coal too even a coal gasification plant) They just couldnt figure it out. It was hit and miss with big flows going down to a trickle. A few were good wells lasting a genertation. Lots of dry or otherwise uneconomic holes. But, you could make money and they did for about 60 yrs. Then it really started to flow.
When we were out there locating the shales and much deeper oil bearing layers not often talked about, they were just learning how to "whipstock" the string and control the bits location. The bit tends to move where it finds the easiest path. It took a while to develop the techniques that can contol a bit a mile in any direction from the bore hole and a mile under ground. But you would see the survey crews 1/4 mile out from the well with a string of pin flags back to rig showing the toolpush the path of the bit.
In those days the reason given for the "whipstocking" was to penetrate isolated "pools" of oil under restricted lands such as Theodore Roosevelt National Park and some of the restricted grassland areas. This was generally accepted, there was never a peep about horizontal fracked legs.
I think they were already planning to frack, they just needed those long horizontal legs. They were working on the machines etc. Test had already been done with down hole explosives and other fracking injecting techniques. As Rockman says they have been fracking for a long time, but never like this. This has opened up what some are calling unconventional resources but it is unimaginable in its size and value to society into the future.
Oil production costs are falling in North Dakota very dramatically. This is the history of all great oil resources. The infrastructure to drill/produce/ship has to be put into place. That takes years, its expensive and its paid for up front. Cost/barrel for the first barrels may be $100 each but they will fall dramatically over time until the last barrels have an extraction cost of a penny.
Its true the price of oil helped spur the development in the Bakken but it is nowhere near as crticial as it was 15-20 yrs ago. It really doesnt matter what the price of oil is now, they are going to drain the Williston Basin of its billions and billions of barrels, unless of course we get zero point or cold fusion reactors in our basements.

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