[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')he larger issue is the way people argue as a sport for ego gratification rather than a genuine pursuit of truth. You see this in the devolution of political discourse that led us to Trump but you also see it in the style of argumentation here.

http://www.ted.com/talks/daniel_h_cohen ... anguage=en

The majority of the rhetoric here seems to be intended to tear away or tear down at an individual, a group, or a demonized -ism. Anger has a way of blinding us from what's actually happening. It makes us envision a more pessimistic future as a way to deliver "payback" for groups we hate, or envision a more optimistic future as a way to deliver humble-pie to doomers. The truth will probably reside somewhere in the middle in a way that satisfies neither extreme.

[sjn]

eclipse, re. infinite recycling of materials. The reason we mine/extract/produce new materials is because there is a fundamental thermodynamic advantage to doing so versus recycling. Once a material has been used to manufacture a product, it is often energetically more expensive [the material has more entropy in the final product] to re-refine that material compared to digging up and refining new ore from the ground. Of course some recycling does occur, but that's only where it's profitable to do so. As ore quality declines the crossover point will move in favour of recycling, but that's necessarily at a significant energetic disadvantage to how much effort is involved with producing new materials today, if indeed it can be done economically.

If energy was truly unlimited, infinite recycling would still be impractical because there would still be entropy produced during the refining/recycling process, which would mean considerable waste and pollution. There can be limits to how many times things can be usefully recycled as is the case with paper recycling.

[onlooker]

It occurs to me that hope is sometimes the enemy of reality and thus leads one astray

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Squilliam', 'I') have found that the most valuable lessons and important information I have gained have come from places where I didn't choose to gain that knowledge. The problem of self-selections is that the knowledge you want isn't necessarily the knowledge you need or should have. This is a common problem on the internet because you can close yourself off from the information that contradicts your already held beliefs. When you tend to close yourself off in a bubble you start to become increasingly disjointed from the rest of society around you. It isn't just the 'elites' that have this problem -- although they really had it first. The ability to withstand the uncomfortable feeling of having your world-view challenged is likely one of the best ways to come around to a world-view that is closer to reality than people that do not.

[sparky]

.
"The problem of self-selections is that the knowledge you want isn't necessarily the knowledge you need or should have. This is a common problem on the internet"

I concur , sometimes i go rambling on the net into unknown places , just to see what is out there

[KaiserJeep]

I personally believe that as a class or generation or whatever terminology you wish, the Baby Boomers, by which I broadly mean those born between 1947 and 1967, are simply incompetent users of the web, social media, and forums such as this one.

I am in that range, having been born in 1951. My kid has better network skills, and her kids are growing up watching the network from their parents laps - video, gaming, and texting.

The Boomers as a group, are hopelessly adrift in the online world, and subject to more than their share of obsessions and delusions. My personal remedy for this is reading, both unchanging printed history, and fiction.

Most of the Doomers are in fact Boomers, or their children.

[steam_cannon]

"why are doomers so keen to ban this stuff"
Let me first say, you're right. Myself, I'm a doomer who also appreciates modern technology. A bit paradoxical. But about doomers, I can tell you a bit about that.

First I'll tell you about yourself. Well, honestly I don’t know you. But regarding "With Trump in power, our main cities could vaporise in huge white flashes." You sound like a doomer too, lol. Maybe not about technology, but about Trump. I'd guess your knowledge has been shaped a bit by our domestic press, a press that most certainly pushes a doomer perspective about Trump. Yet in reality I'll just point out that he's more liked abroad then Hillary who is famous for drum beating for war with Russia. So most of the world that doesn't want to see a big US/Russian war, likes Trump and people in many countries at the edge of things like Japan love Trump. So your attitude is far from universal inside and outside the US. CNN aside and more of my own opinion, I suspect we're at less risk with Trump, not more and you may very well be an example of how a person acquires a doomer perspective though listening to the news. I'll talk more about news issue more below...

Some causes of doomerism:

- Speaking for myself, arrogance! Hahaha, well arrogance can cause doomerism. Being right too often. Smart people make many right conclusions which can lead to a dark attitude about other people's ideas. Say you teach the smartest most certainly educated programmer in a department how to load paper into a printer. It makes you have doubts about all the other ideas that come out of that department right? Or your wife, cleaning a kitchen knife. She's busy and lets it dry too slowly and even a $300 stainless kitchen knife may lose it's edge depending on the alloy and it can rust a little too, even "stainless." She might use an abrasive sponge too and damage the edge and scratch up the nice shine it had. Then she has something to say about a household budget and it's hard to forget this is the same person who just ruined your kitchen knife right? Being smart can make you helpful, but being helpful can give you an unwarranted negative attitude if you're not careful. I mean that's one of those hate can lead to the dark side kinda yoda starwars things, but it's kinda true. And so smart people need to be careful not to fall into that, because a lot of times doomerism is that kind of "you're sure you're right because you're always right", sometimes it's just arrogance. That shouldn't be news to anyone.

- News today is a curse. 90% of news stories are negative, sometimes more. There's tons of good news in the world but most people aren't being exposed to it. It certainly promotes a unbalanced doomer perspective. TRUMP is 100% bad. She is all the evils in the world, she did all these crimes. We can't get the crimes punished because the judges are unfair. That's what the Republican news outlets back in the day said about Hillary. That's what the Democrat news outlets today are saying about Trump. We've come to a point where either you believe the news (on one side or the other) or you reject it. If you're drinking that coolaid, you're channeling a stream of hate about crimes of inuendo that will darken your perspective on many things. If you can't see there's bs because you trust a source, you also aren't exercising the brain muscles to see what won't and what will work in a technology. I think is worse now, but it’s not a new problem, news back in the day was the first to deny and derail efforts that would have saved from the spanish flu. That attitude from back in the day, has only gotten more deconstructive.

- Deconstruction in modern education. Most of all of modern education is a negativity fest. Have pride? That's a sin! Your race is an issue, gender, what you have, what you have and haven't done, what you say, all get analyzed to death in modern education. Even if you agree with the conclusions of modern educational politics, you have to agree everything get's deconstructed to death and that darkens the perspective of many smart people. On top of that, it's not just us, the very ground we stand on and air we breath is part of the fight. Climate has not been a debate or investigation for decades and the conclusion is always doom. NYC has been under water for decades, I mean back when I was in school that's what the climate journals said it would be, so it is right? Not so much and Al Gore's investments sure didn't reflect his words, I wonder why?

So here we are. A person either agrees or well... If you even consider disagreeing with some finer points of climate change (cough)planetary history(cough), you'll have hell to pay. So people get this self defense reflex/perspective of "man ruins everything, whatever it is will fail, you don't have enough proof to disprove it and I looked it up in debunker.com, we're done here". So I would argue that a warped doomer perspective is thoroughly trained into the smartest minds, the most educated full of themselves people today. People are getting a doomer attitude that the world has been run into the ground and look to find facts that will justify their nihilism.

- Nihilism in popular culture. Rick and Morty, American as apple pie! A show made by a great guy who used to literally make "pretend baby rape videos", the original pilot for Rick and Morty was a video about Rick molesting Morty. See a pattern here? Slightly better, the actor doing the voices is literally actually binge drinking drunk every episode AND THIS IS TAKING THE THRONE OF "The Simpsons"? Really? That's ok? Sure it's a fun show. Doom was a fun video game too, bang bang! And with Rick and Morty everyone can be a smart nerd if they like it and you're dumb if you don't! I think they try to draw on the you're a cool nerd or whatever is cool today if you like it because it's popular.

It's smart writing, but like modern culture there's lot wrong with it. I mean come on, this is what we watch? First official episode, old guy pukes from drinking, then levels it up to the point it's implied he made a bomb that destroys one full Earth in a multiverse. And if you keep going they go all nothing matters because there are infinite universes and tinyverses you probably step on all the time. And they have a related kids show "gravity falls" to start em young? Not good. Stuff like this passes as OK today. Doesn't it? And ya know what was the darkest horror a few decades back is normal today right? That's also not good. And as an adult you either realize your culture has a problem and reject the problems. Or you act it out and nihilism acted out can certainly manifest as doomerism.

- Acting out doomerism in the R vs K. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of R vs K psychology, imagine people with elements of the mentality of rabbits vs wolves. Rabbits eat the grass and somehow there are never too many rabbits to eat all the grass, no need to think about it. Wolves have to plan a hunt and if they over hunt they starve too. It’s the wolves that think about doom, not the rabbits. The planning wolves are like, doom is coming, plan plan plan! People are kinda like that in some ways. People in warm climates where you can get food all year are compared to rabbits in this theory. Wolves are like people that live in harsh climates where food requires planning ahead. And there are also more specific elements to that concept regarding people in area's that grew wheat grown by individual farmers in cold climates vs rice in warm climates which needs a collective culture and likely breeds for that mentality. Wheat growers, the harsh climate population, they are naturally doomers, in their bones they feel "winter is coming", the doom is coming and look for the doom in your idea because it's in their blood to do that.

- The bloody economy. Look at interest rates for the last 3000 years. Last I checked 20% was a normal return on investment for literally thousands of years of human history. No joke, look it up. But today negative interest rates? I mean if interest is is below inflations aka that’s stealth negative interest rates and some countries they aren't so stealthy about it (I'm looking at you Japan). While we're at it, look at free time statistics. Surfdom sucked? Sometimes I don’t know, surfs had half of the year off as free time for drinking. Time to raise our pitchforks for sure! And wages, not exactly an ideal time either. In the 50's adjusted wages were more then double. In a lot of big ways, modernity sucks. Sure healthcare is nice, but goodness we're failing there too! With our diets and work, we literally aren't outliving cavemen (adjusting for if you made it past childhood diseases). We should be way outliving cavemen yet we’re not! Modernity is giving the people the feeling of a world run into the ground because we’re being run into the ground! Every day is another tax, every day is another xyz out and not a pint of beer in. With a history like that it's hard not to see the negative.

- Cursed with knowledge of history. Spanish flu happened and serious world altering failures happen on a regular basis every so many human lifetimes. Many people know history. That when borders go away due to banking (gold vs bread economy, gold vs paper economy...), then countries fall. As was Rome, as was the USSR, so will you? Promises of super weapons and super technologies have failed hard in the past, leaving a rather skeletal populous. Promises of empires like "the cultural achievements of the USSR can never be erased" are usually far from the truth when the chips fall. Knowing we watch netflix while the Earth has (what did NASA say, an 8% risk per decade) of a solar flare that can burn all our powerlines and cool toys too. Knowledge of what has always come next is real hard to shake and darkens the perception of things that are still good. Knowledge of history feels like an awakened instinct.

- Cursed instinct? The few that survived some events in the past, perhaps the cometary bombardment that left huge only recently discovered craters in greenland some 11,500 years ago. Human's have a past that's at least 100,000 years old. Who knows what else happened between now and then. Maybe everyone was just stupid. Or not. But based on the genetic bottleneck we know happened, we know some stuff happened and after a period of growth, then for some reason humanity was at the brink of extinction. The survivors of those bad days left relatives, cautious negative hand wringing worrying people. Relatives from people who probably oddly and obsessively stockpiled roots in a cave because they no doubt unjustly feared the sky just might fall on them and oh did it. Or more recently the Mormons formed because there was no food grown for a year in the US. It snowed in the summer. How about that. The year was called "1800 and froze to death." Because of a fairly small volcano. And all that wasn't very long ago. I'll bet you a lot of people died and more would die today. Oh and the volcano's are all becoming active again. Hmmm. Well the living relatives of those that survived before are psychologically looking for at downfall, the mistake, the way it will go down. They may be wrong, but it's in their blood to look for the downfall, that's why they are alive. It's been said that "Mankind is a wounded species." People may have memory of events in their lifetime or not, but some are bearing scars deeper then others.

- Cursed with memory. Out of thousands really useful brilliant inventions, it's not the complex electrochemical petrification of materials that people want to pay money for. It's the F-ing cat ears you stick on a ballcap that end up selling. And there's a darkness in that. Most people forget everything they learned in high school or college. I could walk right back into my exams from decades ago. I've seen a lot of things and details I think most people forget so quickly. Having seen so many technologies fails. Having seen the economy falter many times too. It's very easy to start to see things darkly and expect the cool next big thing will become ash sooner then it's time.

Maybe the more you know the harder it is to get excited about that new whatever, thing. With all that experience perceiving true technological progress can be like finding a like a needle in a haystack. I think for some people remembering so much that it can actually be hard to remember that there is still and always will be the needle that remains sharp in the ashes of change. That there will be someday maybe what should not have been so unimaginable. That even after doomsday when the horse is gone and the hay is burnt, some good will remain in the ashes.

Somewhere in there might be an answer to your question. You may have had some trouble getting interest in your ideas. I think it's good you're challenging people. And I think it’s difficult but important for people to remember that despite all we know, we must stand up to our own weaknesses, personal, instinctual, cultural and recognize that good change happens with technology.

That said, onward to the apocalypse!

[asg70]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I do think there's a distinct difference between a smart vs. kneejerk doomer, though. The kind of doomerism that dominates this forum now only links to places like Zerohedge and is busy spinning conspiracy theories out of their a-holes. The fact is that doom in the US has been, so far, nothing but signs and portents. Day by day, life is stultifying boring.



So coming here and flailing around talking about Venezuela or Wuhan helps pierce that boredom. I think this is the same reason why apocalyptic movies and TV shows like the walking dead are popular. Doom is just more interesting than modernity. It's like, when I was a teenager I liked heavy metal. Stuff like Iron Maiden singing about two minutes to midnight or Megadeth's Symphony of Destruction. It was the sheltered aspect of my suburban childhood that made me sort of long for danger simply for the sake of excitement. Members like M_B_S who was always known for starting threads with WAR!!!! (fill in the blanks) are a great example.



Sure, the pretense is doomers are performing some sort of social function ala Paul Revere to clue in the select few that winter is coming, but really, it's more about attacking boredom. Anyone who posts here a lot has too much time on his hands. PStarr was notorious for this. No matter when I replied, he'd post another reply within 30 seconds which meant he was literally camping out here and hitting F5 obsessively.



I'm telling you, show me a hardcore doomer and I'll show you someone who literally has nothing better to do with his time who finds the idea of mutant zombie bikers appealing just to ease the boredom.

[ralfy]

When one swings from breeder reactors to cities on Mars, then the question isn't why doomers censor hope but whether such hope still makes sense.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eclipse', 'H')i all,
I noticed some circular arguments in Alice Friedman's post on coal power plants dependency on rail.
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/interdepe ... p-running/

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I')t occurs to me that hope is sometimes the enemy of reality and thus leads one astray

[theluckycountry]

Consider American politics for instance. You have two camps, one the republican camp, want law and order, wants practical solutions to problems of energy and immigration and transport. Then you have the Democrat people whose existence is based on the Hope of all these false promises. What's their reaction when they don't get their way? Anger, Violence, civil unrest. One of the funniest videos I ever saw was a group of white democrats blocking a freeway as part of the black lives matter protests. A Black, who had just robbed a store at gunpoint, came flying up the freeway in a stolen car and ran some of them over.

That's what happens when you have false hopes, when you believe Lies over all the rational evidence. Of course my finding it funny is also an affront to them. I am more evil in their eyes for expressing an opinion than a violent criminal that murders among their ranks. Such people are not worth the air they breath, they are the true Evil in our societies.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'C')onsider American politics for instance. You have two camps, one the republican camp, want law and order, wants practical solutions to problems of energy and immigration and transport. Then you have the Democrat people whose existence is based on the Hope of all these false promises. What's their reaction when they don't get their way? Anger, Violence, civil unrest. One of the funniest videos I ever saw was a group of white democrats blocking a freeway as part of the black lives matter protests. A Black, who had just robbed a store at gunpoint, came flying up the freeway in a stolen car and ran some of them over.

That's what happens when you have false hopes, when you believe Lies over all the rational evidence. Of course my finding it funny is also an affront to them. I am more evil in their eyes for expressing an opinion than a violent criminal that murders among their ranks. Such people are not worth the air they breath, they are the true Evil in our societies.

[theluckycountry]

lol, there is a certain *Dimocrat* poster here that has completely lost the plot, so full of HATE they can't even think straight. People like that put themselves in an early grave due to all the negative emotions. You're ok inke, we disagree on much, but your not pathologically insane with anger.