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What Happened to Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 16:26:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
If anything, EROEI of 15 for wind is conservative. It is not a magic bullet however. The amount of energy humanity uses in a single year is staggering. About 500 EJ of energy in 2005(~15,000 GW of average power). Of that, oil was about 180 EJ(~5,400 GW). Asking wind to replace 15,000 GW of power, or even just 5,400 GW of power is a tall order. If you add up all of the alternative energy that was added last year, it was only about 40 GW(includes hydro, solar, excludes nuclear, biofuels, passive solar heating, etc.) Of that, wind was about 20 GW. Adding 40 GW of alternative energy a year, it would take 135 years of building to replace just the 5,400 GW from oil. 375 years to replace all of our power sources. The scale of the task is that big. The rate of alternative energy additions is increasing, but it is not a magic bullet to fix peak oil.

Edit:
If oil declines at a rate of 3% a year, that is 162 GW of energy lost per year. If alternative energy additions increased by a factor of 4, it would be able to replace oil's decline. Not this analysis does not address population growth, utility of oil as a liquid fuel source, and or the decline of other fossil fuels.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 16:36:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')dding 40 GW of alternative energy a year, it would take 135 years of building to replace just the 5,400 GW from oil. 375 years to replace all of our power sources. The scale of the task is that big. The rate of alternative energy additions is increasing, but it is not a magic bullet to fix peak oil.
The problem w/ comparing energy sources one to one is that we aren't including exergy. The only exception to this is heating I suppose, but in that case that's just the result of poor building design for the most part.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 16:45:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'d like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Obviously people would rather pay more to drive larger vehicles than less to drive smaller ones. That's been a pretty consistent trend that has only started to change within the past year. We're paying higher prices for oil now because we've been paying more for it over the past couple decades.

Cost is also influenced more by how much and what type of effort we have to put into something. Even though the EROEI of wind may be higher than that of oil right now, if it costs more to utilize in terms of labor and materials than oil, it'll be more expensive.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 19:52:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')ere's a link that should help you out: Wind Energy EROEI Research
The EROEI of wind power really does compare favorably to other methods of power generation. And it is only getting better as technology improves and average turbine size increases (EROEI increases for bigger turbines).
Thanks, K. In quickly scanning the report, it didn't seem to me that pre-construction is accounted, ie, the development work per se, and all the way back at excavating the ore, rolling the towers, etc, etc. There's so much that doesn't meet the eye.

Again, I'm in the wind industry and am a big supporter of it. I've built 382 MWs and more coming this year. 15 times EROEI? That's a stretch, even for me. It's kind of every time I fly to a wind farm, there's 15 times that energy being manufactured at the wind farm. My first project, I drove 450 miles every week for 2 1/2 years. The second's ribbon cutting ceremony alone, I had 100 people coming from places as far as Europe. How much energy was used in those activities and so many others? How about the dead projects' used energy? Are they accounted in the EROEI calculation?

Some catholic friends have a neat saying: when the miracle is too great ... check the saint. Food for thought.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 20:08:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'d like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Obviously people would rather pay more to drive larger vehicles than less to drive smaller ones. That's been a pretty consistent trend that has only started to change within the past year. We're paying higher prices for oil now because we've been paying more for it over the past couple decades.

Cost is also influenced more by how much and what type of effort we have to put into something. Even though the EROEI of wind may be higher than that of oil right now, if it costs more to utilize in terms of labor and materials than oil, it'll be more expensive.

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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 20:20:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')dding 40 GW of alternative energy a year, it would take 135 years of building to replace just the 5,400 GW from oil. 375 years to replace all of our power sources. The scale of the task is that big. The rate of alternative energy additions is increasing, but it is not a magic bullet to fix peak oil.
I'm with you. And remember, your math doesn't account for demand growth, and that oil, natural gas, coal, other fossil fuels and nuclear have the remarkable feature of being dispatchable and baseload. Wind and solar aren't. Hydro and geotherm aren't 100%. Biofuels maybe. It's some rat race we have.

Please write more, K. I think we have an intelligent conversation going on here.

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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby lorenzo » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 21:19:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'T')he EROEI of electricity from wind is 15.
I'd like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Here's a link that should help you out: Wind Energy EROEI Research The EROEI of wind power really does compare favorably to other methods of power generation. And it is only getting better as technology improves and average turbine size increases (EROEI increases for bigger turbines).

Thx Kublikhan, it seems I was wrong with my number of 15 EROEI for wind. Apparently, the average in that study is 18.1 .

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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby lorenzo » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 21:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'d like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Obviously people would rather pay more to drive larger vehicles than less to drive smaller ones. That's been a pretty consistent trend that has only started to change within the past year.

I assume you are talking for the U.S. only. In Europe, the trend has been very different, and heavily socially stratified.

The wealthiest and best educated segment of Western European societies have come to see small cars as a sign of luxury and intelligence. It's the status symbol of the upper class of these societies. This is important, because they're the ones who set the notions about luxury for the rest of the society.

A car is 90% status symbol, because in Europe, you can get to any place with public transport just as easily, in 90% of the time. Given that cars are more status symbols than transport means, we should never underestimate the potential to change trends in these status symbols, and the effects of these changes on final energy use.

I can see a future in highly advanced societies (Europe, Japan, East Asia), where "less car" (literally) will be seen as more show and luxury. Sooner or later, mobility devices that fold around the body will become the status symbol of elites.

Toyota, BMW and countless individual designers are already exploring these concepts. The old idea of a box on wheels is disappearing very fast - at least conceptually. In its place come personal, quasi-invisible mobility "coats" that are used for short movements within urban landscapes. For the rest of the trips, public transport is used.

Public transport is becoming extremely hip where I live. At least amongst the well educated and the wealthy. We ride buses with the plebs.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 22:38:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')n its place come personal, quasi-invisible mobility "coats" that are used for short movements within urban landscapes.

Why so science fiction? Short-range low-speed urban transport is as simple as an electric push-style scooter.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 22:50:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'d like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Obviously people would rather pay more to drive larger vehicles than less to drive smaller ones. That's been a pretty consistent trend that has only started to change within the past year. We're paying higher prices for oil now because we've been paying more for it over the past couple decades.
Cost is also influenced more by how much and what type of effort we have to put into something. Even though the EROEI of wind may be higher than that of oil right now, if it costs more to utilize in terms of labor and materials than oil, it'll be more expensive.
You win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.

It isn't about losing or winning, just using reasonable estimates.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 00:08:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'d like to see how these calculations are made. I'm not saying you're lying or stretching the truth. I'm just puzzled. I'm in the wind industry. When I see all the energy used in the development, construction, operation and maintenance of one turbine, I have a hard time seeing an EROEI of 15. How come we have these silver bullets and we're paying over $100 oil?
Obviously people would rather pay more to drive larger vehicles than less to drive smaller ones. That's been a pretty consistent trend that has only started to change within the past year. We're paying higher prices for oil now because we've been paying more for it over the past couple decades.
Cost is also influenced more by how much and what type of effort we have to put into something. Even though the EROEI of wind may be higher than that of oil right now, if it costs more to utilize in terms of labor and materials than oil, it'll be more expensive.
You win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.
It isn't about losing or winning, just using reasonable estimates.
You win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 03:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'T')hanks, K. In quickly scanning the report, it didn't seem to me that pre-construction is accounted, ie, the development work per se, and all the way back at excavating the ore, rolling the towers, etc, etc. There's so much that doesn't meet the eye.
Again, I'm in the wind industry and am a big supporter of it. I've built 382 MWs and more coming this year. 15 times EROEI? That's a stretch, even for me. It's kind of every time I fly to a wind farm, there's 15 times that energy being manufactured at the wind farm. My first project, I drove 450 miles every week for 2 1/2 years. The second's ribbon cutting ceremony alone, I had 100 people coming from places as far as Europe. How much energy was used in those activities and so many others? How about the dead projects' used energy? Are they accounted in the EROEI calculation?
Some catholic friends have a neat saying: when the miracle is too great ... check the saint. Food for thought.
Ok sounds like you want some more detailed info. You should check out this link then:
The Energy Balance of Modern Turbines

It breaks down the energy use of not only the construction, but the pre-construction and end of life as well. There are figures for the energy used in the steel, copper, aluminum, gear box oil, epoxy, construction cranes, shipping, etc. They also note that their is a market for used wind turbines in developing countries, so the actual lifetime of the turbine(and thus the EROEI) might be substantially better then reported. I'm not sure why their numbers are so much higher than the previous study, I'm guessing different methodologies were used. A few quotes from the report:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') modern Danish 600 kW wind turbine will recover all the energy spent in its manufacture, maintenance, and scrapping within some three months of its commissioning.
Within its 20-year design lifetime a wind turbine will supply at least 80 times the energy spent in its manufacture, installation, operation, maintenance and scrapping.
The scrapping of a turbine requires energy. But recycling the metal parts will recover slightly more energy than what is required for the scrapping process.
If we account for the fact that offshore wind turbines would have a longer lifetime of 25-30 years (due to less turbulence at sea, and thus lower fatigue loads), we find that an offshore wind turbine will recover the energy spent on it more than 100 times over.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 17:26:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'Y')ou win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')t isn't about losing or winning, just using reasonable estimates.

:P
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 18:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') modern Danish 600 kW wind turbine will recover all the energy spent in its manufacture, maintenance, and scrapping within some three months of its commissioning.
Within its 20-year design lifetime a wind turbine will supply at least 80 times the energy spent in its manufacture, installation, operation, maintenance and scrapping.
The scrapping of a turbine requires energy. But recycling the metal parts will recover slightly more energy than what is required for the scrapping process.
If we account for the fact that offshore wind turbines would have a longer lifetime of 25-30 years (due to less turbulence at sea, and thus lower fatigue loads), we find that an offshore wind turbine will recover the energy spent on it more than 100 times over.

K, I'm having a hard time with 80 times. Isn't that a bit of a stretch?
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 18:28:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'Y')ou win. I lose. You're smart. I'm ignorant. So long.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')t isn't about losing or winning, just using reasonable estimates.

:P


Yesplease, what can I do for you?

I've already conceded 6-7 times that you're smarter than me, and that you won the argument. Go ahead and gift every American with a Segway and install 276K GE 1.5sle's and we'll cease importing 20 mbpd. Never mind that Americans love large vehicles and that you want to install WTGs where they are "suitable" to be installed. I think your argument lacks of hands-on experience, in the sense your dividing a dividend by a divisor and obtaining a quotient that will not meet our life-style. I'm willing to pass my hands-on experience to you, even take you on field trips if you wish. That said, again, you're smarter, I'm OK with your argument, and am conceding that it's certainly better than mine. What else can I do for you? Is your harassment necessary?

If you prefer, I can add you to my Ignore List, as other users have, but it would be pretty lonely there.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 20:23:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'K'), I'm having a hard time with 80 times. Isn't that a bit of a stretch?
I haven't gone through all of the research, but every source I have read agrees: Wind has a very good EROEI. Even taking into consideration a multitude of variables. Another source that lists wind as 80:
The Coming Global Energy Crisis

If you are looking for criticisms of wind power, EROEI is not the place to look. I have read about problems of possible bird deaths, the best sites being taken already, radar shadows, intermitency, etc. But EROEI is one of wind's strengths not weaknesses.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') hundred years ago, oil gushers produced with high yield, but today solar, hydro-electric and wind power have net energy yields (EROI) higher than conventional fuels (oil, gas and coal) and an order of magnitude better than non-conventional fossil fuels (enhanced oil recovery (EOR), tar sands, oil shale, coal-to-liquid, LNG).
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 21:43:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'Y')esplease, what can I do for you?

I've already conceded 6-7 times that you're smarter than me, and that you won the argument. Go ahead and gift every American with a Segway and install 276K GE 1.5sle's and we'll cease importing 20 mbpd. Never mind that Americans love large vehicles and that you want to install WTGs where they are "suitable" to be installed. I think your argument lacks of hands-on experience, in the sense your dividing a dividend by a divisor and obtaining a quotient that will not meet our life-style. I'm willing to pass my hands-on experience to you, even take you on field trips if you wish. That said, again, you're smarter, I'm OK with your argument, and am conceding that it's certainly better than mine. What else can I do for you? Is your harassment necessary?

If you prefer, I can add you to my Ignore List, as other users have, but it would be pretty lonely there.
Like I said before, it isn't about smart or not. I could also be taller, shorter, heavier, etc... Who knows? Regardless, that information isn't exactly pertinent to a construction discussion. :)

As for harassment, if you consider responding to your posts in literally the same fashion you've responded to mine harassment, then I suppose the question is why do you think harassment of others is necessary yet complain when others respond in kind? Clearly simply responding to a post by someone during a discussion isn't harassment, regardless of what other posters may want to maintain. Saying that cost isn't directly related to EROEI or that enjoying larger more inefficient vehicles is part of why Americans are getting hit hard by high oil and fuel prices isn't harassment, so like I said before, why would you complain about others responding in kind to what you view as harassment when you initiate it?

Going back OT, Americans like larger vehicles, as do people in other countries. But regardless of what they like, in the big picture they can only drive what they can afford. If those vehicles are conventional subcompacts, even when larger trucks are being offered at much lower, perhaps similar prices in some cases, at up to 50% off MSRP, that's just how it is. If in the future, when oil becomes expensive enough and EV and/or PHEV production ramps up, the same economic constraints still apply. If the average person can only afford ~$30k, then they'll have to buy a more efficient vehicle regardless of what they may ultimately want, and this will limit the impact of electricity consumption, no matter how many wind turbines we build in the mean time.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Fri 05 Sep 2008, 10:16:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')f you are looking for criticisms of wind power, EROEI is not the place to look. I have read about problems of possible bird deaths, the best sites being taken already, radar shadows, intermitency, etc. But EROEI is one of wind's strengths not weaknesses.
Not at all. I'm in the wind industry. I'm a big advocate for wind, but I don't know about painting it as 80 x EROEI.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 05 Sep 2008, 13:14:15

If I may let me interject another perspective. I work in the oil patch and have tried to do a full cycle EROEI for drilling a simple unconventional NG well. Just like with the wind farms it gets cumbersome very fast trying to amortize various elements. On the other, no one who drills oil/NG gas wells gives a crap about EROEI. And they never will. You’re certainly free to argue the logic of that attitude but it doesn’t matter. Wells will be drilled on the basis of $’s in vs. $’s out with adjustments for risks. I can’t see the construction of wind farms being governed by any other factor unless it’s being paid for by some gov’t agency which doesn’t need to concern itself with profit and loss. And we can agree all day long that development of any alternative energy source on economic considerations and not EROEI is short sighted and potentially wasteful. But it doesn’t matter. And when I say it doesn’t matter just prove me wrong: describe one alternative energy project that has ever been built (other then with tax payer money such as the disastrous coal-to-liquids plants paid for by the American tax payer that was eventually sold for scrap metal).

EROEI is a valid concept and worth of academic discussion. But I see nothing in the future where it will be a deciding factor in alternative energy development. Again, I don’t say this to condemn the conversation. I do find it very interesting from an engineering point. But whose numbers are right isn’t too important as they’ll have little or no bearing on the course of alternative energy development, IMHO.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 05 Sep 2008, 14:33:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')'m in the wind industry. I'm a big advocate for wind, but I don't know about painting it as 80 x EROEI.
It is inaccurate to try and paint all of wind as having a single EROEI. It varies greatly by location and turbine type. The first study I linked to came up with an average of 18.1 EROEI. But if you look at the turbine types, alot of them were old turbines from the 1980's. You would probably know this better then me, but turbines have come a long way since the 1980's and the EROEI is much better than back then. For a large modern turbine, its not uncommon to see EROEI of 40 or better. I am not going to quibble of which study is right, 40 or 80, you could be right that 80 is way off. But I think 15 EROEI is too low for a large modern turbine in a good location.

As for comparing $'s, I agree that money is an important consideration as well. Wind compares favorably on this point as well. While (dirty) coal was still found to be cheaper than wind, the current trends are for alternative energy to become cheaper while fossil fuels become more expensive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he lifetime cost of new generating capacity in the United States was estimated in 2006 by the U.S. government: wind cost was estimated at $55.80 per MWh, coal (cheap in the U.S.) at $53.10, natural gas at $52.50 and nuclear at $59.30
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